# Can You Beat FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Forecasts?

Can you outsmart our forecasts? Make your picks using the sliders below.

Our NFL forecasts are based on a simple algorithm that relies on Elo ratings, which use only a few pieces of information to rate each team and project each game. But beware: We’re asking you to make a *probabilistic forecast* for each matchup — and our game punishes overconfidence. For the full rules, read here. The margin of victory in each NFL game won’t affect your score.

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## Week 5

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## Season leaderboard

## Week 4 results

Matchup | FiveThirtyEight forecast 538 forecast | Your forecast | Game score | FiveThirtyEight points 538 points | Your points | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

LAR at SF LAR 9, SF 24 | RamsLAR | at 49ersSF | SF55% | LAR 9, SF 24 | |||||||||

KC at TB KC 41, TB 31 | ChiefsKC | at BuccaneersTB | TB59% | KC 41, TB 31 | |||||||||

DEN at LV DEN 23, LV 32 | BroncosDEN | at RaidersLV | DEN53% | DEN 23, LV 32 | |||||||||

NE at GB NE 24, GB 27 | PatriotsNE | at PackersGB | GB73% | NE 24, GB 27 | |||||||||

ARI at CAR ARI 26, CAR 16 | CardinalsARI | at PanthersCAR | ARI51% | ARI 26, CAR 16 | |||||||||

BUF at BAL BUF 23, BAL 20 | BillsBUF | at RavensBAL | BUF54% | BUF 23, BAL 20 | |||||||||

CHI at NYG CHI 12, NYG 20 | BearsCHI | at GiantsNYG | NYG58% | CHI 12, NYG 20 | |||||||||

CLE at ATL CLE 20, ATL 23 | BrownsCLE | at FalconsATL | CLE53% | CLE 20, ATL 23 | |||||||||

JAX at PHI JAX 21, PHI 29 | JaguarsJAX | at EaglesPHI | PHI72% | JAX 21, PHI 29 | |||||||||

LAC at HOU LAC 34, HOU 24 | ChargersLAC | at TexansHOU | LAC64% | LAC 34, HOU 24 | |||||||||

NYJ at PIT NYJ 24, PIT 20 | JetsNYJ | at SteelersPIT | PIT71% | NYJ 24, PIT 20 | |||||||||

SEA at DET SEA 48, DET 45 | SeahawksSEA | at LionsDET | DET61% | SEA 48, DET 45 | |||||||||

TEN at IND TEN 24, IND 17 | TitansTEN | at ColtsIND | IND57% | TEN 24, IND 17 | |||||||||

WSH at DAL WSH 10, DAL 25 | WashingtonWSH | at CowboysDAL | DAL58% | WSH 10, DAL 25 | |||||||||

MIN at NO MIN 28, NO 25 | VikingsMIN | at SaintsNO | MIN66% | MIN 28, NO 25 | |||||||||

MIA at CIN MIA 15, CIN 27 | DolphinsMIA | at BengalsCIN | MIA51% | MIA 15, CIN 27 | |||||||||

Week 4 points | Week 4 points | Week 4 points |

## Week 3 results

Matchup | FiveThirtyEight forecast 538 forecast | Your forecast | Game score | FiveThirtyEight points 538 points | Your points | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

DAL at NYG DAL 23, NYG 16 | CowboysDAL | at GiantsNYG | NYG66% | DAL 23, NYG 16 | |||||||||

SF at DEN SF 10, DEN 11 | 49ersSF | at BroncosDEN | DEN51% | SF 10, DEN 11 | |||||||||

ATL at SEA ATL 27, SEA 23 | FalconsATL | at SeahawksSEA | SEA65% | ATL 27, SEA 23 | |||||||||

GB at TB GB 14, TB 12 | PackersGB | at BuccaneersTB | TB67% | GB 14, TB 12 | |||||||||

LAR at ARI LAR 20, ARI 12 | RamsLAR | at CardinalsARI | LAR51% | LAR 20, ARI 12 | |||||||||

JAX at LAC JAX 38, LAC 10 | JaguarsJAX | at ChargersLAC | LAC74% | JAX 38, LAC 10 | |||||||||

BAL at NE BAL 37, NE 26 | RavensBAL | at PatriotsNE | BAL51% | BAL 37, NE 26 | |||||||||

BUF at MIA BUF 19, MIA 21 | BillsBUF | at DolphinsMIA | BUF57% | BUF 19, MIA 21 | |||||||||

CIN at NYJ CIN 27, NYJ 12 | BengalsCIN | at JetsNYJ | CIN56% | CIN 27, NYJ 12 | |||||||||

DET at MIN DET 24, MIN 28 | LionsDET | at VikingsMIN | MIN70% | DET 24, MIN 28 | |||||||||

HOU at CHI HOU 20, CHI 23 | TexansHOU | at BearsCHI | CHI66% | HOU 20, CHI 23 | |||||||||

KC at IND KC 17, IND 20 | ChiefsKC | at ColtsIND | KC66% | KC 17, IND 20 | |||||||||

NO at CAR NO 14, CAR 22 | SaintsNO | at PanthersCAR | NO58% | NO 14, CAR 22 | |||||||||

OAK at TEN LV 22, TEN 24 | RaidersLV | at TitansTEN | TEN62% | LV 22, TEN 24 | |||||||||

PHI at WSH PHI 24, WSH 8 | EaglesPHI | at WashingtonWSH | PHI59% | PHI 24, WSH 8 | |||||||||

PIT at CLE PIT 17, CLE 29 | SteelersPIT | at BrownsCLE | PIT50% | PIT 17, CLE 29 | |||||||||

Week 3 points | Week 3 points | Week 3 points |

## Week 2 results

Matchup | FiveThirtyEight forecast 538 forecast | Your forecast | Game score | FiveThirtyEight points 538 points | Your points | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

MIN at PHI MIN 7, PHI 24 | VikingsMIN | at EaglesPHI | PHI55% | MIN 7, PHI 24 | |||||||||

TEN at BUF TEN 7, BUF 41 | TitansTEN | at BillsBUF | BUF76% | TEN 7, BUF 41 | |||||||||

CHI at GB CHI 10, GB 27 | BearsCHI | at PackersGB | GB73% | CHI 10, GB 27 | |||||||||

ARI at LV ARI 29, LV 23 | CardinalsARI | at RaidersLV | LV58% | ARI 29, LV 23 | |||||||||

CIN at DAL CIN 17, DAL 20 | BengalsCIN | at CowboysDAL | CIN66% | CIN 17, DAL 20 | |||||||||

HOU at DEN HOU 9, DEN 16 | TexansHOU | at BroncosDEN | DEN76% | HOU 9, DEN 16 | |||||||||

ATL at LAR ATL 27, LAR 31 | FalconsATL | at RamsLAR | LAR79% | ATL 27, LAR 31 | |||||||||

SEA at SF SEA 7, SF 27 | SeahawksSEA | at 49ersSF | SF69% | SEA 7, SF 27 | |||||||||

CAR at NYG CAR 16, NYG 19 | PanthersCAR | at GiantsNYG | NYG64% | CAR 16, NYG 19 | |||||||||

IND at JAX IND 0, JAX 24 | ColtsIND | at JaguarsJAX | IND65% | IND 0, JAX 24 | |||||||||

MIA at BAL MIA 42, BAL 38 | DolphinsMIA | at RavensBAL | BAL60% | MIA 42, BAL 38 | |||||||||

NE at PIT NE 17, PIT 14 | PatriotsNE | at SteelersPIT | PIT58% | NE 17, PIT 14 | |||||||||

NYJ at CLE NYJ 31, CLE 30 | JetsNYJ | at BrownsCLE | CLE62% | NYJ 31, CLE 30 | |||||||||

TB at NO TB 20, NO 10 | BuccaneersTB | at SaintsNO | TB58% | TB 20, NO 10 | |||||||||

WSH at DET WSH 27, DET 36 | WashingtonWSH | at LionsDET | WSH56% | WSH 27, DET 36 | |||||||||

LAC at KC LAC 24, KC 27 | ChargersLAC | at ChiefsKC | KC67% | LAC 24, KC 27 | |||||||||

Week 2 points | Week 2 points | Week 2 points |

## Week 1 results

Matchup | FiveThirtyEight forecast 538 forecast | Your forecast | Game score | FiveThirtyEight points 538 points | Your points | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

DEN at SEA DEN 16, SEA 17 | BroncosDEN | at SeahawksSEA | DEN57% | DEN 16, SEA 17 | |||||||||

TB at DAL TB 19, DAL 3 | BuccaneersTB | at CowboysDAL | DAL51% | TB 19, DAL 3 | |||||||||

GB at MIN GB 7, MIN 23 | PackersGB | at VikingsMIN | GB53% | GB 7, MIN 23 | |||||||||

KC at ARI KC 44, ARI 21 | ChiefsKC | at CardinalsARI | KC57% | KC 44, ARI 21 | |||||||||

NYG at TEN NYG 21, TEN 20 | GiantsNYG | at TitansTEN | TEN69% | NYG 21, TEN 20 | |||||||||

OAK at LAC LV 19, LAC 24 | RaidersLV | at ChargersLAC | LAC64% | LV 19, LAC 24 | |||||||||

BAL at NYJ BAL 24, NYJ 9 | RavensBAL | at JetsNYJ | BAL62% | BAL 24, NYJ 9 | |||||||||

CLE at CAR CLE 26, CAR 24 | BrownsCLE | at PanthersCAR | CAR57% | CLE 26, CAR 24 | |||||||||

IND at HOU IND 20, HOU 20 | ColtsIND | at TexansHOU | IND67% | IND 20, HOU 20 | |||||||||

JAX at WSH JAX 22, WSH 28 | JaguarsJAX | at WashingtonWSH | WSH68% | JAX 22, WSH 28 | |||||||||

NE at MIA NE 7, MIA 20 | PatriotsNE | at DolphinsMIA | MIA58% | NE 7, MIA 20 | |||||||||

NO at ATL NO 27, ATL 26 | SaintsNO | at FalconsATL | NO64% | NO 27, ATL 26 | |||||||||

PHI at DET PHI 38, DET 35 | EaglesPHI | at LionsDET | PHI60% | PHI 38, DET 35 | |||||||||

PIT at CIN PIT 23, CIN 20 | SteelersPIT | at BengalsCIN | CIN68% | PIT 23, CIN 20 | |||||||||

SF at CHI SF 10, CHI 19 | 49ersSF | at BearsCHI | SF63% | SF 10, CHI 19 | |||||||||

BUF at LAR BUF 31, LAR 10 | BillsBUF | at RamsLAR | LAR53% | BUF 31, LAR 10 | |||||||||

Week 1 points | Week 1 points | Week 1 points |

## Your custom leaderboards

When you sign in and create a leaderboard, you’ll receive a link to send to friends or colleagues to invite them to your competition. Anybody clicking the link will join your leaderboard once they are signed up.

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