UPDATED Feb. 26, 2024, at 9:51 AM

Who’s On Track For The GOP Nomination?

We’ve estimated how many delegates each candidate needs to win in each contest.

Read moreDownload data

Who’s hitting their delegate benchmarks?

Based on which states they’re strongest in, we calculated how many delegates each candidate should have won by now to be on pace to win the nomination. Here’s how their estimated delegate counts compare with those benchmarks.

At/over benchmark
Under benchmark
Total delegates
Delegates wonPercent of benchmark
Majority: 1,215
Trump
110244%
Haley
2020%
DeSantis
941%
Dropped out on Jan. 21
Ramaswamy
315%
Dropped out on Jan. 15
Hutchinson
00%
Dropped out on Jan. 16
Majority: 1,215
Delegates wonPercent of benchmark
Trump
110244%
Haley
2020%
DeSantis
941%
Ramaswamy
315%
Hutchinson
00%

What’s each candidate’s path to the nomination?

Each candidate has different delegate goals on different dates. Here’s how many delegates they need at each point in the calendar and whether they’ve historically been over or under their benchmarks.

Benchmark
At/Over benchmark
Under benchmark
Click to jump to a detailed view

Trump

Benchmark
At/Over benchmark
Under benchmark
We expect Donald Trump to pick up more delegates in states with higher populations of white evangelicals, with more non-college-educated voters and where he outperformed in the 2016 primary. He is stronger outside the early states, meaning he can survive relatively poor performances in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Haley

Benchmark
At/Over benchmark
Under benchmark
Nikki Haley’s support is concentrated in states with higher shares of white voters, especially college-educated whites. Her support is most strongly correlated with opposition to Trump in the 2016 primary. Her benchmarks are highest in early states, particularly New Hampshire, and other earlier-voting, liberal states.

DeSantis

Dropped out on Jan. 21
Benchmark
At/Over benchmark
Under benchmark
More than for other candidates, support for Ron DeSantis does not map well onto most demographic and geographic groups. He does slightly better in states with more Black voters and more white evangelical voters, and worse in states that voted strongly for Trump in the 2016 primary. He needs a lot of delegates from early-voting states and his home state of Florida.

Ramaswamy

Dropped out on Jan. 15
Benchmark
At/Over benchmark
Under benchmark
Support for Vivek Ramaswamy is higher in states with more white voters and lower in states that went more strongly for Trump in the 2016 primary. He has high benchmarks in the Super Tuesday states, particularly in California.

Hutchinson

Dropped out on Jan. 16
Benchmark
At/Over benchmark
Under benchmark
Supporters of Asa Hutchinson are concentrated in states with more college-educated white voters and more secular voters. Despite hailing from Arkansas, he performs better outside the South. Hutchinson’s most important states are those that vote early and California.

Which contests have candidates hit their benchmarks in?

States allocate their delegates differently! In some, the winner takes all (WTA) the delegates available, while others allocate delegates proportionally (P) based on vote share. Many races are proportional but turn into winner-take-all (P/WTA) or winner-take-most (P/WTM) if the winner gets a certain share of the vote. Our benchmarks account for this!

A full calendar of the 2024 GOP presidential primary and each candidate’s delegate benchmark in each contest.

Key
Detailed table key BENCHMARK TOTAL DELEGATES WON/BENCHMARK UNDER BENCHMARK OVER BENCHMARK 13/12
Date
Contest
Rules
ContestTotalTrumpHaleyDeSantisRamaswamyHutchinson
DateRules2,429110/4520/1029/223/200/33
Jan. 15
Iowa
P
Jan. 15
Iowa
P
40
20/12
8/26
9/22
3/20
0/33
Jan. 23
N.H.
P
Jan. 23
N.H.
P
22
13/7
9/22
/7
/11
/17
Feb. 8
Nev.
P
Feb. 8
Nev.
P
26
26/26
0/0
/13
/11
/19
V.I.
WTA
V.I.
WTA
4
4/0
0/4
/4
/4
/0
Feb. 24
S.C.
WTA
Feb. 24
S.C.
WTA
50
47/0
3/50
/50
/0
/0
Feb. 27
Mich.
P
Feb. 27
Mich.*
P
55
/27
/30
/26
/27
/34
March 2
Idaho
P/WTA
March 2
Idaho
P/WTA
32
/0
/32
/32
/32
/32
Mo.
P/WTA
Mo.*
P/WTA
54
/28
/23
/28
/27
/30
March 3
D.C.
P/WTA
March 3
D.C.
P/WTA
19
/0
/19
/19
/0
/0
March 4
N.D.
P
March 4
N.D.
P
29
/13
/20
/14
/17
/29
March 5
Alaska
P
March 5
Alaska
P
29
/14
/16
/16
/14
/17
Ala.
P/WTA
Ala.
P/WTA
50
/0
/50
/0
/0
/0
Ark.
P/WTM
Ark.
P/WTM
40
/40
/0
/40
/40
/40
A.S.
A.S.
9
/4
/5
/3
/4
/3
Calif.
P/WTA
Calif.
P/WTA
169
/169
/169
/0
/69
/169
Colo.
P
Colo.
P
37
/19
/19
/21
/19
/26
Mass.
P/WTA
Mass.
P/WTA
40
/0
/40
/17
/40
/40
Maine
P/WTA
Maine
P/WTA
20
/0
/20
/20
/20
/20
Minn.
P/WTA
Minn.
P/WTA
39
/0
/39
/39
/39
/39
N.C.
P
N.C.
P
74
/36
/42
/34
/34
/25
Okla.
P/WTA
Okla.
P/WTA
43
/0
/43
/43
/43
/43
Tenn.
P/WTA
Tenn.
P/WTA
58
/58
/0
/0
/58
/0
Texas
P/WTA
Texas
P/WTA
161
/161
/0
/161
/161
/161
Utah
P/WTA
Utah
P/WTA
40
/0
/40
/40
/40
/40
Va.
P/WTA
Va.
P/WTA
48
/0
/48
/48
/0
/0
Vt.
P/WTA
Vt.
P/WTA
17
/0
/17
/0
/17
/17
March 10
Wyo.
WTA
March 10
Wyo.*
WTA
29
/0
/29
/29
/29
/29
March 12
Ga.
P
March 12
Ga.
P
59
/30
/29
/37
/29
/0
Hawaii
P
Hawaii
P
19
/9
/12
/7
/8
/7
Miss.
P/WTA
Miss.
P/WTA
40
/0
/40
/40
/0
/0
Wash.
P/WTA
Wash.
P/WTA
43
/0
/43
/0
/43
/0
March 15
M.P.
WTA
March 15
M.P.
WTA
9
/0
/9
/0
/0
/0
March 19
Ariz.
WTA
March 19
Ariz.
WTA
43
/0
/43
/0
/43
/43
Fla.
WTA
Fla.
WTA
125
/125
/0
/125
/0
/0
Ill.
WTA
Ill.
WTA
64
/64
/64
/64
/0
/0
Kan.
WTA
Kan.
WTA
39
/0
/39
/39
/39
/39
Ohio
WTA
Ohio
WTA
79
/79
/0
/0
/79
/79
March 23
La.
WTA
March 23
La.
WTA
47
/0
/47
/47
/0
/0
April 2
Conn.
P/WTA
April 2
Conn.
P/WTA
28
/28
/0
/28
/0
/0
Del.
WTA
Del.
WTA
16
/0
/16
/0
/16
/0
N.Y.
P/WTA
N.Y.
P/WTA
91
/91
/91
/91
/0
/0
R.I.
P
R.I.
P
19
/9
/11
/8
/10
/9
Wis.
WTA
Wis.
WTA
41
/0
/41
/41
/41
/41
April 21
P.R.
P/WTA
April 21
P.R.
P/WTA
23
/23
/0
/0
/23
/23
April 23
Pa.
WTA
April 23
Pa.*
WTA
16
/16
/0
/0
/16
/0
May 7
Ind.
WTA
May 7
Ind.
WTA
58
/58
/0
/0
/0
/58
May 14
Md.
WTA
May 14
Md.
WTA
37
/37
/0
/37
/0
/0
Neb.
WTA
Neb.
WTA
36
/0
/36
/0
/36
/36
W.Va.
WTA
W.Va.
WTA
32
/32
/0
/0
/0
/0
May 21
Ky.
P
May 21
Ky.
P
46
/23
/22
/30
/26
/33
May 25
Ore.
WTA
May 25
Ore.*
WTA
31
/0
/31
/0
/31
/0
June 4
N.J.
WTA
June 4
N.J.
WTA
12
/12
/0
/12
/0
/0