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Who’s ahead in the Iowa presidential Republican primary?

Updating average for each candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Republican primary, Iowa, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Jan. 12-14
1,092LV
Jan. 12-14
1,092LV
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage
 Trump
52%
 Trump
52%

Trump

52%

DeSantis

19%

Haley

19%

Ramaswamy

7%

Hutchinson

1%
19%
 DeSantisTrump+33
Jan. 11-13
532LV
Jan. 11-13
532LV
Emerson College
 Trump
57%
 Trump
57%

Trump

57%

Haley

21%

DeSantis

15%

Ramaswamy

5%

Hutchinson

2%
21%
 HaleyTrump+35
Jan. 7-12
705LV
Jan. 7-12
705LV
Selzer & Co.
 Trump
48%
 Trump
48%

Trump

48%

Haley

20%

DeSantis

16%

Ramaswamy

8%

Binkley

1%

Hutchinson

1%
20%
 HaleyTrump+28
Jan. 11
850LV
Jan. 11
850LV
InsiderAdvantage
 Trump
51%
 Trump
51%

Trump

51%

DeSantis

17%

Haley

17%

Ramaswamy

7%

Hutchinson

0%
17%
 DeSantisTrump+34
Jan. 6-10
500LV
Jan. 6-10
500LV
Suffolk University
 Trump
54%
 Trump
54%

Trump

54%

Haley

20%

DeSantis

13%

Ramaswamy

6%

Christie

2%
20%
 HaleyTrump+34
Jan. 5-10
433LV
Jan. 5-10
433LV
Civiqs
 Trump
55%
 Trump
55%

Trump

55%

DeSantis

14%

Haley

14%

Ramaswamy

8%

Christie

4%

Binkley

2%

Hutchinson

0%

Stuckenberg

0%
14%
 DeSantisTrump+41
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

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Candidate is an incumbent

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Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

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Campaign poll

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