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Who’s ahead in Iowa?

Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

KEY

ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Republican primary, Iowa, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Jan. 12-14
1,092LV
Jan. 12-14
1,092LV
Trump
52%
Trump
52%

Trump

52%

DeSantis

19%

Haley

19%

Ramaswamy

7%

Hutchinson

1%
19%
DeSantisTrump+33
Jan. 11-13
532LV
Jan. 11-13
532LV
Trump
57%
Trump
57%

Trump

57%

Haley

21%

DeSantis

15%

Ramaswamy

5%

Hutchinson

2%
21%
HaleyTrump+35
Jan. 7-12
705LV
Jan. 7-12
705LV
Trump
48%
Trump
48%

Trump

48%

Haley

20%

DeSantis

16%

Ramaswamy

8%

Binkley

1%

Hutchinson

1%
20%
HaleyTrump+28
Jan. 11
850LV
Jan. 11
850LV
Trump
51%
Trump
51%

Trump

51%

DeSantis

17%

Haley

17%

Ramaswamy

7%

Hutchinson

0%
17%
DeSantisTrump+34
Jan. 6-10
500LV
Jan. 6-10
500LV
Trump
54%
Trump
54%

Trump

54%

Haley

20%

DeSantis

13%

Ramaswamy

6%

Christie

2%
20%
HaleyTrump+34
Jan. 5-10
433LV
Jan. 5-10
433LV
Trump
55%
Trump
55%

Trump

55%

DeSantis

14%

Haley

14%

Ramaswamy

8%

Christie

4%

Binkley

2%

Hutchinson

0%

Stuckenberg

0%
14%
DeSantisTrump+41
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

Partisan types

Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

Other party-funded

Campaign poll

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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