UPDATED Sep. 14, 2021, at 8:59 AM

Latest Polls Of The California Recall Election

Voters will decide whether to remove Gov. Gavin Newsom and — if removed — whom to replace him with

Our polling averages for the California recall election are final and no longer updating. Visit our live blog for updates.

Opponents of Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom of California have gathered enough signatures to trigger a recall election for him on Sept. 14 — only the fourth gubernatorial recall election in U.S. history. If a majority of recall voters vote “yes,” Newsom will be removed from office.

Do Californians want to remove Gavin Newsom from office?

An updating average of 2021 California gubernatorial recall election polls, accounting for each poll's quality, recency and sample size

A chart showing the polling averages since July 14 for whether to keep California Gov. Gavin Newsom in office or remove him, with dots representing each poll. “Keep” is polling at an average of 57.3 percent, and “Remove” is polling at an average of 41.5 percent.

DatesPollsterSample
Keep
Remove
LeaderAdjusted Leader
Aug. 30-Sep. 133,985LV
55%
41%
Keep +14Keep +14
Sep. 11-131,082LV
53%
45%
Keep +9Keep +11
Sep. 10-111,000LV
60%
40%
Keep +20Keep +19
Sep. 2-102,464LV
57%
43%
Keep +14Keep +14
Sep. 7-8930LV
54%
41%
Keep +13Keep +15
Sep. 6-7500LV
58%
41%
Keep +17Keep +16
Aug. 30-Sep. 66,550LV
60%
39%
Keep +22Keep +18
Sep. 2-41,079LV
53%
43%
Keep +10Keep +12
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If Newsom is removed from office, the second question on the recall ballot will determine his replacement. Forty-six candidates are in the running, and it just takes a simple plurality to win, meaning a candidate could win with only minority support (there is no runoff). Californians can vote on the second question even if they vote against recalling Newsom on the first question.

Whom would Californians want to replace Gavin Newsom as governor?

An updating average of 2021 California gubernatorial replacement election polls, accounting for each poll's quality, recency and sample size

A chart showing the polling averages since July 14 for whom to replace California Gov. Gavin Newsom with (if his recall is successful), with dots representing each poll. Candidates with a polling average of at least 5 percent are listed by name. Republican Larry Elder is leading with an average of 29.7 percent.

DatesPollsterSampleLeaderAdjusted Leader
Sep. 11-131,082LVElder +32Elder +29
Sep. 10-111,000LVElder +24Elder +23
Sep. 2-102,557LVElder +15Elder +18
Sep. 7-8597LVElder +20Elder +21
Sep. 6-7500LVElder +34Elder +31
Aug. 30-Sep. 64,441LVElder +28Elder +26
Sep. 2-41,079LVElder +19Elder +17
Aug. 27-Sep. 11,955LVElder +14Elder +16
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