2015-16 CARMELO NBA Player Projections

By Nate Silver and Allison McCann

These projections are from an earlier season. See our latest CARMELO projections

FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO* identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like. Read more: How our projections work | 2015-16 team predictions

ARCHIVED 11:30 am EDT | Oct 9, 2015

How good will
be?
RANDOM PLAYER
Pick a player:
RANDOM PLAYER

Steve Novak

  • Thunder
  • Oklahoma City Thunder
  • Power Forward
  • 32 years old
Weighted average of past three seasons
Bad
Avg.
Good
Percentile
Vitals50th
Height6'10"
Weight220
Draft position32
Scoring
True shooting %57%
Free throw %55%
Usage %13%
Tendencies
3 pt. frequency83%
FT frequency4%
Passing/Ball Handling
Assist %6%
Turnover %5%
Defense/Rebounding
Rebound %6%
Block %0.6%
Steal %0.6%
Defensive +/--2.1
Wins Above Replacement Projection

Confidence interval

Projection

Category:
*FiveThirtyEight's Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization (CARMELO) is a system that forecasts a player's future performance. The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and 100 is the highest possible degree of similarity. Plus-minus is the number of points per 100 possessions that a player contributed to his team, relative to an average NBA player. All player ages are as of Feb. 1, 2016. Minutes played is prorated to 82 games.
Design and development by Allison McCann and Aaron Bycoffe. Statistical model by Nate Silver. Illustration by Matt Chase. Additional contributions by Neil Paine.
Sources: Basketball-Reference.com, ESPN and Jeremias Engelmann.

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