UPDATED Jul. 8, 2019 at 10:30 AM

2019-20 CARMELO NBA Player Projections

FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO* identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.

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Marvin Williams

Weighted average of past three seasons
Bad
Avg.
Good
Percentile
Vitals 50th
Height 6'9"
Weight 237
Draft position 2
Scoring
True shooting % 56%
Free throw % 80%
Usage % 15%
Tendencies
3 pt. frequency 56%
FT frequency 17%
Passing/ball handling
Assist % 6%
Turnover % 7%
Defense/rebounding
Rebound % 10%
Block % 2.2%
Steal % 1.5%
Defensive +/- +0.1
Wins above replacement projection
Category: ROTATION PLAYER
5-yr market value: $21.9m

Confidence interval

Projection

'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27051015202.33.11.00.90.30.10.0-0.1-0.10.02.33.11.00.90.30.10.0-0.1-0.10.0
Performance of the 10 most comparable players
1
Sam Perkins
Year: 1995
Similarity: 65
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
2
D. Marshall
Year: 2007
Similarity: 57
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
3
Mike Dunleavy
Year: 2014
Similarity: 53
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
4
Shane Battier
Year: 2012
Similarity: 46
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
5
Peja Stojakovic
Year: 2011
Similarity: 46
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
6
Trevor Ariza
Year: 2019
Similarity: 44
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
7
Boris Diaw
Year: 2016
Similarity: 43
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
8
Chuck Person
Year: 1998
Similarity: 43
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
9
Armen Gilliam
Year: 1998
Similarity: 42
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
10
Danny Ferry
Year: 2000
Similarity: 42
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27

Marvin Williams

  • Hornets
  • Charlotte Hornets
  • Power Forward
  • 33 years old
The fine print
Ratings 2017 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26
Offensive +/- Reg. season -0.1 +0.7 +0.0 -0.4 -0.9 -1.0 -1.5 -1.8 -2.0 -2.2
Playoffs -0.5 -1.0 -1.1 -1.6 -1.9 -2.2 -2.3
Combined -0.1 +0.7 +0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.1 -1.6 -1.9 -2.1 -2.2
Defensive +/- Reg. season +0.5 +0.8 -0.3 +0.3 +0.2 +0.2 +0.4 +0.2 -0.3 +0.4
Playoffs +0.2 +0.1 +0.1 +0.2 +0.1 -0.5 +0.2
Combined +0.5 +0.8 -0.3 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 +0.3 +0.2 -0.4 +0.3
Total +/- Reg. season +0.4 +1.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.8 -1.1 -1.6 -2.4 -1.8
Playoffs -0.4 -1.0 -1.0 -1.4 -1.8 -2.6 -2.1
Combined +0.4 +1.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.8 -0.9 -1.3 -1.7 -2.5 -1.9
Per 82 games 2017 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26
WAR Reg. season 2.3 3.1 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Playoffs 0.8 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Combined 2.3 3.1 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Market value Reg. season $17.0m $23.8m $8.9m $9.9m $4.8m $3.5m $2.1m $1.6m $1.1m $2.0m
Playoffs $8.0m $3.2m $2.5m $1.4m $1.2m $0.8m $1.9m
Combined $17.0m $23.8m $8.9m $9.0m $4.0m $3.0m $1.7m $1.4m $0.9m $1.9m
Minutes played Reg. season 2,295 2,006 2,133 1,717 1,297 796 424 221 157 81
Playoffs 1,739 1,360 873 499 256 170 82
Combined 2,295 2,006 2,133 1,728 1,329 834 462 238 163 81
The fine print
Based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances
Year Off. +/- Def. +/- Total +/- Mkt. value Min. played
2017 -0.1 +0.5 +0.4 $17.0m 2,295
2018 +0.7 +0.8 +1.5 $23.8m 2,006
2019 +0.0 -0.3 -0.3 $8.9m 2,133
2020 -0.5 +0.2 -0.2 $9.0m 1,728
2021 -1.0 +0.2 -0.8 $4.0m 1,329
2022 -1.1 +0.2 -0.9 $3.0m 834
2023 -1.6 +0.3 -1.3 $1.7m 462
2024 -1.9 +0.2 -1.7 $1.4m 238
2025 -2.1 -0.4 -2.5 $0.9m 163
2026 -2.2 +0.3 -1.9 $1.9m 81

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