UPDATED Jul. 8, 2019 at 10:30 AM

2019-20 CARMELO NBA Player Projections

FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO* identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.

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Nikola Vucevic

Weighted average of past three seasons
Bad
Avg.
Good
Percentile
Vitals 50th
Height 7'1"
Weight 260
Draft position 16
Scoring
True shooting % 55%
Free throw % 79%
Usage % 27%
Tendencies
3 pt. frequency 18%
FT frequency 15%
Passing/ball handling
Assist % 21%
Turnover % 10%
Defense/rebounding
Rebound % 19%
Block % 3.0%
Steal % 1.6%
Defensive +/- +2.9
Wins above replacement projection
Category: BORDERLINE ALL-STAR
5-yr market value: $162.2m

Confidence interval

Projection

'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27051015201.61.76.34.84.13.63.12.51.71.41.61.76.34.84.13.63.12.51.71.4
Performance of the 10 most comparable players
1
Robert Parish
Year: 1983
Similarity: 47
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
2
Brook Lopez
Year: 2017
Similarity: 47
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
3
Bob Lanier
Year: 1978
Similarity: 43
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
4
Al Horford
Year: 2016
Similarity: 41
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
5
Vlade Divac
Year: 1997
Similarity: 39
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
6
Rik Smits
Year: 1996
Similarity: 37
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
7
Al Jefferson
Year: 2014
Similarity: 36
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
8
Jack Sikma
Year: 1985
Similarity: 35
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
9
Marc Gasol
Year: 2014
Similarity: 35
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
10
Kevin Love
Year: 2018
Similarity: 34
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27

Nikola Vucevic

  • Magic
  • Orlando Magic
  • Center
  • 29 years old
The fine print
Ratings 2017 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26
Offensive +/- Reg. season -1.4 +0.0 +2.6 +0.7 +0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -1.0 -1.1
Playoffs -6.5 +0.6 +0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -1.1 -1.1
Combined -1.4 +0.0 +0.5 +0.7 +0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1
Defensive +/- Reg. season +2.3 +1.4 +3.5 +2.8 +2.7 +2.9 +2.6 +2.6 +2.7 +2.6
Playoffs +4.5 +2.7 +2.6 +2.8 +2.5 +2.5 +2.5 +2.6
Combined +2.3 +1.4 +3.7 +2.7 +2.7 +2.9 +2.5 +2.5 +2.6 +2.6
Total +/- Reg. season +1.0 +1.4 +6.1 +3.5 +3.0 +2.8 +2.4 +2.0 +1.7 +1.6
Playoffs -2.2 +3.3 +2.8 +2.6 +2.2 +1.8 +1.5 +1.4
Combined +1.0 +1.4 +4.2 +3.4 +2.9 +2.7 +2.3 +1.9 +1.6 +1.5
Per 82 games 2017 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26
WAR Reg. season 1.6 1.7 9.0 4.7 4.0 3.4 3.0 2.4 1.6 1.3
Playoffs -2.3 5.0 4.3 3.7 3.2 2.5 1.7 1.5
Combined 1.6 1.7 6.3 4.8 4.1 3.6 3.1 2.5 1.7 1.4
Market value Reg. season $12.2m $14.0m $68.4m $39.1m $35.5m $32.5m $29.9m $25.6m $19.1m $16.8m
Playoffs -$15.9m $41.6m $37.9m $34.9m $31.7m $26.7m $20.1m $19.0m
Combined $12.2m $14.0m $48.3m $40.3m $36.7m $33.7m $30.8m $26.2m $19.6m $17.9m
Minutes played Reg. season 2,163 1,683 2,510 2,168 2,093 1,951 1,933 1,804 1,430 1,217
Playoffs 2,411 2,440 2,389 2,251 2,221 2,100 1,693 1,522
Combined 2,163 1,683 2,486 2,304 2,241 2,101 2,077 1,952 1,562 1,370
The fine print
Based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances
Year Off. +/- Def. +/- Total +/- Mkt. value Min. played
2017 -1.4 +2.3 +1.0 $12.2m 2,163
2018 +0.0 +1.4 +1.4 $14.0m 1,683
2019 +0.5 +3.7 +4.2 $48.3m 2,486
2020 +0.7 +2.7 +3.4 $40.3m 2,304
2021 +0.3 +2.7 +2.9 $36.7m 2,241
2022 -0.2 +2.9 +2.7 $33.7m 2,101
2023 -0.3 +2.5 +2.3 $30.8m 2,077
2024 -0.7 +2.5 +1.9 $26.2m 1,952
2025 -1.0 +2.6 +1.6 $19.6m 1,562
2026 -1.1 +2.6 +1.5 $17.9m 1,370

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