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Trump score How often Jones voted in line with Trump’s position | Trump margin Trump’s share of the vote in the 2016 election in the member’s state or district minus Clinton’s | Predicted score How often Jones was expected to support Trump based on Trump’s 2016 margin | Trump plus-minus Difference between Jones’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Career | 66.7% | -60.7 | 66.1% | +0.5 |
| 115th Congress | 66.7% | -60.7 | 66.1% | +0.5 |
Trump score How often Jones votes in line with Trump’s position | 66.7% |
|---|---|
| Trump margin Trump’s share of the vote in the 2016 election in the member’s state or district minus Clinton’s | -60.7 |
Predicted score How often Jones is expected to support Trump based on Trump’s 2016 margin | 66.1% |
Trump plus-minus Difference between Jones’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores | +0.5 |
| Date | Measure | Trump Position | Jones Vote | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement | Plus-minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec. 20, 2018 | Extension of government funding, including $5.7 billion for border wall (217-185) | Trump Position support | Jones Vote No | Agree with Trump?  | Likelihood of agreement 0.0% | Plus-minus 0.0 |
| Dec. 20, 2018 | Making changes to federal sentencing and prison laws (358-36) | Trump Position support | Jones Vote Yes | Agree with Trump?  | Likelihood of agreement 100.0% | Plus-minus 0.0 |
| Dec. 12, 2018 | The 2018 farm bill (conference committee report) (369-47) | Trump Position support | Jones Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 98.4% | Plus-minus +1.6 |
| Average | 66.7% | 66.1% | +0.5 | |||
See more about Brenda Jones at ProPublica
Members’ “likelihood of agreement” scores on each vote are calculated using a regression for which the input is Trump’s 2016 vote margin in every member’s state or district and the output is the probability that a member will vote for the bill. The plus-minus on each vote is the difference between the member’s vote (100 percent for a “yes,” 0 percent for a “no”) and the likelihood of agreement. Averages do not include missed votes. How this works »
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