Get more FiveThirtyEight
- Terms of Use
- Privacy Policy
- Your California Privacy Rights
- Children's Online Privacy Policy
- Interest-Based Ads
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
Trump score How often Auchincloss votes in line with Trump’s position | Trump margin Trump’s share of the vote in the 2016 election in the member’s state or district minus Clinton’s | Predicted score How often Auchincloss is expected to support Trump based on Trump’s 2016 margin | Trump plus-minus Difference between Auchincloss’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Career | 0.0% | -24.2 | 0.8% | -0.8 |
| 117th Congress | 0.0% | -24.2 | 0.8% | -0.8 |
Trump score How often Auchincloss votes in line with Trump’s position | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Trump margin Trump’s share of the vote in the 2016 election in the member’s state or district minus Clinton’s | -24.2 |
Predicted score How often Auchincloss is expected to support Trump based on Trump’s 2016 margin | 0.8% |
Trump plus-minus Difference between Auchincloss’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores | -0.8 |
| Date | Measure | Trump Position | Auchincloss Vote | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement | Plus-minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan. 13 | Impeaching President Trump on a charge of incitement of insurrection (232-197) | Trump Position oppose | Auchincloss Vote Yes | Agree with Trump?  | Likelihood of agreement 0.5% | Plus-minus -0.5 |
| Jan. 7 | Objecting to Pennsylvania’s presidential electors (138-282) | Trump Position support | Auchincloss Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 0.9% | Plus-minus -0.9 |
| Jan. 6 | Objecting to Arizona’s presidential electors (121-303) | Trump Position support | Auchincloss Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 0.9% | Plus-minus -0.9 |
| Average | 0.0% | 0.8% | -0.8 | |||
See more about Jake Auchincloss at ProPublica
Members’ “likelihood of agreement” scores on each vote are calculated using a regression for which the input is Trump’s 2016 vote margin in every member’s state or district and the output is the probability that a member will vote for the bill. The plus-minus on each vote is the difference between the member’s vote (100 percent for a “yes,” 0 percent for a “no”) and the likelihood of agreement. Averages do not include missed votes. How this works »
Comments