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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a greater than 99% chance of winning the Maryland primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Kasich
Cruz

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Maryland Republican primary, we’ve collected nine polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Cruz
Kasich
Apr. 21-24 American Research Group400 LV
0.52
Trump +34
55%
19%
21%
Apr. 15-17 Public Policy Polling310 LV
0.14
Trump +14
43%
24%
29%
Apr. 10-12 Monmouth University301 LV
0.05
Trump +20
47%
19%
27%
Apr. 8-10 TargetPoint600 LV
0.03
Trump +7
33%
26%
25%
Apr. 5-9 Marist College368 LV
0.02
Trump +12
41%
29%
24%
Mar. 30-Apr. 3 The Washington Post283 LV
0.00
Trump +10
41%
22%
31%
Mar. 4-8 Opinion Works400 LV
0.00
Trump +9
34%
25%
18%
Jan. 11-16 Gonzales Research301 LV
0.00
Trump +17
32%
15%
Nov. 13-17 Opinion Works307 LV
0.00
Carson +4*
23%
10%
4%
Apr. 21-24
400 LV
Trump +34
Trump 55%
Kasich 21%
Cruz 19%
Apr. 15-17
310 LV
Trump +14
Trump 43%
Kasich 29%
Cruz 24%
Apr. 10-12
301 LV
Trump +20
Trump 47%
Kasich 27%
Cruz 19%
Apr. 8-10
600 LV
Trump +7
Trump 33%
Cruz 26%
Kasich 25%
Apr. 5-9
368 LV
Trump +12
Trump 41%
Cruz 29%
Kasich 24%
Mar. 30-Apr. 3
283 LV
Trump +10
Trump 41%
Kasich 31%
Cruz 22%
Mar. 4-8
400 LV
Trump +9
Trump 34%
Cruz 25%
Kasich 18%
Jan. 11-16
301 LV
Trump +17
Trump 32%
Cruz 15%
Nov. 13-17
307 LV
Carson +4*
Trump 23%
Cruz 10%
Kasich 4%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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