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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

See our 2016 general election forecast for New Jersey »

e N.J. Democratic primary

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a greater than 99% chance of winning the New Jersey primary.

Chance of winning, based on state polls only.

Chance of winning, based on state polls, national polls and endorsements.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton
Sanders

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the New Jersey Democratic primary, we’ve collected 13 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

• = new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
•May 31-Jun. 3 YouGov586 LV
0.56
Clinton +27
61%
34%
•May 31-Jun. 2 American Research Group400 LV
0.33
Clinton +23
60%
37%
•May 10-16 Quinnipiac University696 LV
0.01
Clinton +14
54%
40%
•May 1-3 Monmouth University301 LV
0.00
Clinton +28
60%
32%
•Apr. 1-8 Rutgers-Eagleton292 RV
0.00
Clinton +9
51%
42%
•Feb. 6-15 Rutgers-Eagleton304 RV
0.00
Clinton +23
55%
32%
•Nov. 30-Dec. 6 Rutgers-Eagleton304 RV
0.00
Clinton +41
60%
19%
•Nov. 9-15 Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind)384 RV
0.00
Clinton +37
64%
27%
•Nov. 4-8 Quinnipiac University538 RV
0.00
Clinton +33
56%
23%
•Oct. 3-10 Rutgers-Eagleton358 RV
0.00
Clinton +30
49%
19%
•Jun. 15-21 Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind)345 RV
0.00
Clinton +48
63%
15%
•Apr. 9-14 Quinnipiac University539 RV
0.00
Clinton +51*
63%
3%
•Jan. 15-19 Quinnipiac University366 RV
0.00
Clinton +57*
68%
2%
•May 31-Jun. 3
YouGov
586 LV
Clinton +27
Clinton 61%
Sanders 34%
•May 31-Jun. 2
American Research Group
400 LV
Clinton +23
Clinton 60%
Sanders 37%
•May 10-16
Quinnipiac University
696 LV
Clinton +14
Clinton 54%
Sanders 40%
•May 1-3
Monmouth University
301 LV
Clinton +28
Clinton 60%
Sanders 32%
•Apr. 1-8
Rutgers-Eagleton
292 RV
Clinton +9
Clinton 51%
Sanders 42%
•Feb. 6-15
Rutgers-Eagleton
304 RV
Clinton +23
Clinton 55%
Sanders 32%
•Nov. 30-Dec. 6
Rutgers-Eagleton
304 RV
Clinton +41
Clinton 60%
Sanders 19%
•Nov. 9-15
Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind)
384 RV
Clinton +37
Clinton 64%
Sanders 27%
•Nov. 4-8
Quinnipiac University
538 RV
Clinton +33
Clinton 56%
Sanders 23%
•Oct. 3-10
Rutgers-Eagleton
358 RV
Clinton +30
Clinton 49%
Sanders 19%
•Jun. 15-21
Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind)
345 RV
Clinton +48
Clinton 63%
Sanders 15%
•Apr. 9-14
Quinnipiac University
539 RV
Clinton +51*
Clinton 63%
Sanders 3%
•Jan. 15-19
Quinnipiac University
366 RV
Clinton +57*
Clinton 68%
Sanders 2%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .
Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Andrei Scheinkman. Research by Harry Enten and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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