According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a greater than 99% chance of winning the New York primary.
Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .
The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.
For the New York Republican primary, we’ve collected 26 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.
• = new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters
| pollster | sample | weight | leader | Trump | Kasich | Cruz | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| • | Apr. 15-17 | Emerson College | 361 | LV | 0.62 | Trump +34 | 55% | 21% | 18% |
| • | Apr. 13-15 | YouGov | 705 | LV | 0.57 | Trump +33 | 54% | 19% | 21% |
| • | Apr. 11-14 | Øptimus | 14,201 | LV | 0.43 | Trump +25 | 51% | 26% | 15% |
| • | Apr. 13 | Gravis Marketing | 481 | LV | 0.32 | Trump +35 | 57% | 22% | 20% |
| • | Apr. 10-13 | Marist College | 313 | LV | 0.26 | Trump +29 | 54% | 25% | 16% |
| • | Apr. 6-11 | Siena College | 469 | LV | 0.19 | Trump +23 | 50% | 27% | 17% |
| • | Apr. 6-11 | Quinnipiac University | 550 | LV | 0.18 | Trump +35 | 55% | 20% | 19% |
| • | Apr. 7-10 | Public Policy Polling | 483 | LV | 0.15 | Trump +26 | 51% | 25% | 20% |
| • | Apr. 6-7 | Liberty Opinion Research | 6,041 | LV | 0.10 | Trump +29 | 52% | 23% | 19% |
| • | Apr. 4-7 | Fox News | 602 | LV | 0.08 | Trump +32 | 54% | 22% | 15% |
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