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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had an 88% chance of winning the North Carolina primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Cruz
Kasich
Rubio

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the North Carolina Republican primary, we’ve collected 27 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Cruz
Kasich
Rubio
Mar. 11-13 Public Policy Polling749 LV
1.07
Trump +11
44%
33%
11%
7%
Mar. 9-10 SurveyUSA734 LV
0.99
Trump +20
48%
28%
12%
8%
Mar. 4-7 SurveyUSA688 LV
0.20
Trump +14
41%
27%
11%
14%
Mar. 3-7 National Research, Inc.500 LV
0.17
Trump +6
32%
26%
11%
11%
Feb. 15-19 Elon University733 LV
0.00
Trump +9
28%
19%
7%
16%
Feb. 14-16 SurveyUSA437 LV
0.00
Trump +18
36%
18%
7%
18%
Feb. 14-16 Public Policy Polling597 LV
0.00
Trump +10
29%
19%
11%
16%
Jan. 30-Feb. 4 High Point University477 LV
0.00
Trump +4
26%
22%
2%
20%
Jan. 18-19 National Research, Inc.500 LV
0.00
Trump +4
27%
23%
2%
10%
Jan. 18-19 Public Policy Polling433 LV
0.00
Trump +22
38%
16%
2%
11%
Mar. 11-13
749 LV
Trump +11
Trump 44%
Cruz 33%
Kasich 11%
Rubio 7%
Mar. 9-10
734 LV
Trump +20
Trump 48%
Cruz 28%
Kasich 12%
Rubio 8%
Mar. 4-7
688 LV
Trump +14
Trump 41%
Cruz 27%
Rubio 14%
Kasich 11%
Mar. 3-7
500 LV
Trump +6
Trump 32%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 11%
Kasich 11%
Feb. 15-19
733 LV
Trump +9
Trump 28%
Cruz 19%
Rubio 16%
Kasich 7%
Feb. 14-16
437 LV
Trump +18
Trump 36%
Cruz 18%
Rubio 18%
Kasich 7%
Feb. 14-16
597 LV
Trump +10
Trump 29%
Cruz 19%
Rubio 16%
Kasich 11%
Jan. 30-Feb. 4
477 LV
Trump +4
Trump 26%
Cruz 22%
Rubio 20%
Kasich 2%
Jan. 18-19
500 LV
Trump +4
Trump 27%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 10%
Kasich 2%
Jan. 18-19
433 LV
Trump +22
Trump 38%
Cruz 16%
Rubio 11%
Kasich 2%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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