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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a 68% chance of winning the Oklahoma primary.

Ben Carson and John Kasich had less than a 1% chance of winning.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Rubio
Cruz
Carson
Kasich

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Oklahoma Republican primary, we’ve collected 11 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Rubio
Cruz
Carson
Kasich
Feb. 25-28 Monmouth University403 LV
0.88
Trump +12
35%
22%
23%
7%
8%
Feb. 23-25 SoonerPoll.com540 LV
0.56
Trump +13
34%
21%
18%
9%
6%
Feb. 22-29 SurveyMonkey636 RV
0.38
Trump +15
34%
19%
19%
14%
7%
Feb. 22-23 Cole Hargrave400 LV
0.28
Trump +8
29%
21%
20%
6%
5%
Feb. 6-9 SoonerPoll.com414 LV
0.00
Trump +5
30%
21%
25%
6%
3%
Jan. 25-28 Cole Hargrave300 LV
0.00
Trump +4
25%
9%
21%
6%
Jan. 17-19 SoonerPoll.com541 RV
0.00
Trump +10
35%
10%
25%
8%
Nov. 12-15 SoonerPoll.com389 LV
0.00
Trump +9
27%
16%
18%
18%
0%
Oct. 19-22 Cole Hargrave350 RV
0.00
Carson +6
19%
9%
7%
25%
2%
Sep. 1-15 SoonerPoll.com320 LV
0.00
Trump +8
31%
4%
7%
23%
2%
Aug. 2-3 Opinion Savvy402 LV
0.00
Trump +22*
36%
3%
7%
10%
2%
Feb. 25-28
403 LV
Trump +12
Trump 35%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 22%
Kasich 8%
Carson 7%
Feb. 23-25
540 LV
Trump +13
Trump 34%
Rubio 21%
Cruz 18%
Carson 9%
Kasich 6%
Feb. 22-29
636 RV
Trump +15
Trump 34%
Cruz 19%
Rubio 19%
Carson 14%
Kasich 7%
Feb. 22-23
400 LV
Trump +8
Trump 29%
Rubio 21%
Cruz 20%
Carson 6%
Kasich 5%
Feb. 6-9
414 LV
Trump +5
Trump 30%
Cruz 25%
Rubio 21%
Carson 6%
Kasich 3%
Jan. 25-28
300 LV
Trump +4
Trump 25%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 9%
Carson 6%
Jan. 17-19
541 RV
Trump +10
Trump 35%
Cruz 25%
Rubio 10%
Carson 8%
Nov. 12-15
389 LV
Trump +9
Trump 27%
Carson 18%
Cruz 18%
Rubio 16%
Kasich 0%
Oct. 19-22
350 RV
Carson +6
Carson 25%
Trump 19%
Rubio 9%
Cruz 7%
Kasich 2%
Sep. 1-15
320 LV
Trump +8
Trump 31%
Carson 23%
Cruz 7%
Rubio 4%
Kasich 2%
Aug. 2-3
402 LV
Trump +22*
Trump 36%
Carson 10%
Cruz 7%
Rubio 3%
Kasich 2%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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