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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a greater than 99% chance of winning the Texas primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton
Sanders

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Texas Democratic primary, we’ve collected 17 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
Feb. 26-28 Emerson College275 LV
0.58
Clinton +42
68%
26%
Feb. 26-28 American Research Group400 LV
0.54
Clinton +20
58%
38%
Feb. 22-26 YouGov750 LV
0.42
Clinton +24
61%
37%
Feb. 21-22 SurveyUSA569 LV
0.36
Clinton +29
61%
32%
Feb. 22-24 Monmouth University304 LV
0.27
Clinton +34
64%
30%
Feb. 24 Crosswind Media & Public Relations411 LV
0.26
Clinton +40
66%
26%
Feb. 22 Dixie Strategies625 LV
0.17
Clinton +32
61%
29%
Feb. 18-23 Marist College381 LV
0.16
Clinton +21
59%
38%
Feb. 21-23 Emerson College328 LV
0.06
Clinton +16
56%
40%
Feb. 14-16 Public Policy Polling514 LV
0.04
Clinton +23
57%
34%
Feb. 26-28
275 LV
Clinton +42
Clinton 68%
Sanders 26%
Feb. 26-28
400 LV
Clinton +20
Clinton 58%
Sanders 38%
Feb. 22-26
750 LV
Clinton +24
Clinton 61%
Sanders 37%
Feb. 21-22
569 LV
Clinton +29
Clinton 61%
Sanders 32%
Feb. 22-24
304 LV
Clinton +34
Clinton 64%
Sanders 30%
Feb. 24
411 LV
Clinton +40
Clinton 66%
Sanders 26%
Feb. 22
625 LV
Clinton +32
Clinton 61%
Sanders 29%
Feb. 18-23
381 LV
Clinton +21
Clinton 59%
Sanders 38%
Feb. 21-23
328 LV
Clinton +16
Clinton 56%
Sanders 40%
Feb. 14-16
514 LV
Clinton +23
Clinton 57%
Sanders 34%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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