According to our final polls-plus forecast, Ted Cruz had an 87% chance of winning the Texas primary.
Ben Carson and John Kasich had less than a 1% chance of winning.
Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .
The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.
For the Texas Republican primary, we’ve collected 21 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.
• = new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters
| pollster | sample | weight | leader | Cruz | Trump | Rubio | Kasich | Carson | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| • | Feb. 26-28 | Emerson College | 449 | LV | 0.75 | Cruz +3 | 35% | 32% | 16% | 9% | 4% |
| • | Feb. 28 | Opinion Savvy | 712 | LV | 0.65 | Cruz +11 | 36% | 25% | 19% | 9% | 8% |
| • | Feb. 26-28 | American Research Group | 400 | LV | 0.54 | Cruz +1 | 33% | 32% | 17% | 7% | 6% |
| • | Feb. 22-26 | YouGov | 796 | LV | 0.43 | Cruz +11 | 42% | 31% | 19% | 4% | 4% |
| • | Feb. 21-22 | SurveyUSA | 645 | LV | 0.39 | Tie | 32% | 32% | 17% | 6% | 5% |
| • | Feb. 22-24 | Monmouth University | 456 | LV | 0.37 | Cruz +15 | 38% | 23% | 21% | 5% | 6% |
| • | Feb. 22-29 | SurveyMonkey | 613 | RV | 0.34 | Cruz +2 | 33% | 31% | 19% | 5% | 9% |
| • | Feb. 24 | Crosswind Media & Public Relations | 620 | LV | 0.31 | Cruz +12 | 38% | 26% | 13% | 7% | 6% |
| • | Feb. 18-23 | Marist College | 537 | LV | 0.20 | Cruz +13 | 39% | 26% | 16% | 6% | 8% |
| • | Feb. 22 | Dixie Strategies | 725 | LV | 0.18 | Cruz +8 | 33% | 25% | 15% | 8% | 6% |
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