2016 Election Primary forecasts Delegates National polls Endorsements Facebook map

2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

How this works »

UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

See our 2016 general election forecast for Utah »

r Utah Democratic caucuses

SWIPE TO
NAVIGATE

Chance of winning, based on state polls only.

Chance of winning, based on state polls, national polls and endorsements.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton

There’s no forecast for Utah yet because there isn’t enough recent polling.

Nonetheless, we’re tracking polling results as they come in, calculating a weighted polling average for each candidate.

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Utah Democratic caucuses, we’ve collected seven polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

• = new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Sanders
Clinton
•Mar. 8-15 Dan Jones & Associates194 LV
0.15
Sanders +8
52%
44%
•Feb. 10-15 Dan Jones & Associates102 RV
0.00
Clinton +7
44%
51%
•Jan. 6-13 SurveyUSA188 RV
0.00
Clinton +10
40%
50%
•Sep. 8-17 Dan Jones & Associates
0.00
Sanders +1
31%
30%
•Jul. 14-21 Dan Jones & Associates
0.00
Clinton +20
30%
50%
•Mar. 30-Apr. 7 Dan Jones & Associates96 RV
0.00
Clinton +32*
57%
•Mar. 3-5 Dan Jones & Associates406 RV
0.00
Clinton +31*
56%
•Mar. 8-15
Dan Jones & Associates
194 LV
Sanders +8
Sanders 52%
Clinton 44%
•Feb. 10-15
Dan Jones & Associates
102 RV
Clinton +7
Clinton 51%
Sanders 44%
•Jan. 6-13
SurveyUSA
188 RV
Clinton +10
Clinton 50%
Sanders 40%
•Sep. 8-17
Dan Jones & Associates
Sanders +1
Sanders 31%
Clinton 30%
•Jul. 14-21
Dan Jones & Associates
Clinton +20
Clinton 50%
Sanders 30%
•Mar. 30-Apr. 7
Dan Jones & Associates
96 RV
Clinton +32*
Clinton 57%
•Mar. 3-5
Dan Jones & Associates
406 RV
Clinton +31*
Clinton 56%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .
Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Andrei Scheinkman. Research by Harry Enten and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

CommentsAdd Comment