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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Bernie Sanders had a 63% chance of winning the West Virginia primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Sanders
Clinton

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the West Virginia Democratic primary, we’ve collected five polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Sanders
Clinton
Apr. 29-May 1 Public Policy Polling637 LV
0.37
Sanders +8
45%
37%
Apr. 22-May 2 R.L. Repass & Partners315 LV
0.14
Sanders +4
47%
43%
Mar. 2-6 Thirty-Ninth Street Strategies600 LV
0.00
Clinton +13
31%
44%
Feb. 11-16 R.L. Repass & Partners208 LV
0.00
Sanders +28
57%
29%
Aug. 24-25 Orion Strategies211 LV
0.00
Clinton +7*
12%
23%
Apr. 29-May 1
637 LV
Sanders +8
Sanders 45%
Clinton 37%
Apr. 22-May 2
315 LV
Sanders +4
Sanders 47%
Clinton 43%
Mar. 2-6
600 LV
Clinton +13
Clinton 44%
Sanders 31%
Feb. 11-16
208 LV
Sanders +28
Sanders 57%
Clinton 29%
Aug. 24-25
211 LV
Clinton +7*
Clinton 23%
Sanders 12%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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