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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

How this works »

UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016


Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.


There’s no forecast for West Virginia yet because there isn’t enough recent polling.

Nonetheless, we’re tracking polling results as they come in, calculating a weighted polling average for each candidate.

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the West Virginia Republican primary, we’ve collected three polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

Apr. 29-May 1 Public Policy Polling549 LV
Trump +39*
Feb. 11-16 R.L. Repass & Partners159 LV
Trump +20*
Aug. 24-25 Orion Strategies138 LV
Trump +21*
Apr. 29-May 1
549 LV
Trump +39*
Trump 61%
Kasich 14%
Feb. 11-16
159 LV
Trump +20*
Trump 40%
Kasich 6%
Aug. 24-25
138 LV
Trump +21*
Trump 29%
Kasich 1%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .
Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Andrei Scheinkman. Research by Harry Enten and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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