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Who’s ahead in the Alaska race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

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ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending May 10, 2022

Governor, Alaska, 2022

500LV
May 5-11
500LV
Gara
24%
Gara
24%

Gara

24%

Dunleavy

40%

Walker

18%

Pierce

5%
40%
DunleavyDunleavy+16

May 8, 2022

U.S. House, AK-1, 2022

605LV
May 6-9
605LV
Gross
47%
Gross
47%

Gross

47%

Begich

53%
53%
Begich  Begich+6
605LV
May 6-9
605LV
Gross
40%
Gross
40%

Gross

40%

Begich

32%

Palin

28%
32%
BegichGross+8
605LV
May 6-9
605LV
Gross
26%
Gross
26%

Gross

26%

Begich

28%

Palin

25%

Claus

21%
28%
BegichBegich+2
605LV
May 6-9
605LV
Gross
46%
Gross
46%

Gross

46%

Begich

54%
54%
Begich  Begich+8
605LV
May 6-9
605LV
Gross
40%
Gross
40%

Gross

40%

Begich

33%

Palin

28%
33%
BegichGross+7
605LV
May 6-9
605LV
Gross
27%
Gross
27%

Gross

27%

Begich

29%

Palin

26%

Peltola

19%
29%
BegichBegich+2
605LV
May 6-9
605LV
Gross
46%
Gross
46%

Gross

46%

Begich

54%
54%
Begich  Begich+8
605LV
May 6-9
605LV
Gross
40%
Gross
40%

Gross

40%

Begich

32%

Palin

28%
32%
BegichGross+8
605LV
May 6-9
605LV
Begich
29%
Begich
29%

Begich

29%

Palin

28%

Gross

27%

Constant

17%
28%
PalinBegich+1
605LV
May 6-9
605LV
Gross
45%
Gross
45%

Gross

45%

Begich

55%
55%
Begich  Begich+10
605LV
May 6-9
605LV
Gross
39%
Gross
39%

Gross

39%

Begich

32%

Palin

29%
32%
BegichGross+7
605LV
May 6-9
605LV
Gross
35%
Gross
35%

Gross

35%

Begich

28%

Palin

26%

Sweeney

11%
28%
BegichGross+7

April 20, 2022

U.S. Senate, Alaska, 2022

1,208LV
Apr.16-21
1,208LV
Murkowski
55%
Murkowski
55%

Murkowski

55%

Tshibaka

45%
45%
Tshibaka  Murkowski+10

March 28, 2022

U.S. House, AK-1, 2022

728LV
Mar.25-29
728LV
Gross
35%
Gross
35%

Gross

35%

Revak

34%
34%
Revak  Gross+1
728LV
Mar.25-29
728LV
Gross
40%
Gross
40%

Gross

40%

Palin

42%
42%
Palin  Palin+2
728LV
Mar.25-29
728LV
Gross
35%
Gross
35%

Gross

35%

Palin

35%
35%
Palin  Even
728LV
Mar.25-29
728LV
Gross
33%
Gross
33%

Gross

33%

Palin

30%

Revak

11%
30%
PalinGross+3
728LV
Mar.25-29
728LV
Gross
33%
Gross
33%

Gross

33%

Palin

30%

Revak

9%

Reinbold

8%
30%
PalinGross+3

March 15, 2022

U.S. Senate, Alaska, 2022

500LV
Mar.14-16
500LV
Tshibaka
51%
Tshibaka
51%

Tshibaka

51%

Murkowski

49%
49%
Murkowski  Tshibaka+2
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