UPDATED Sep. 27, 2022, at 8:10 PM

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Who’s ahead in the Alaska race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Sept. 13, 2022

U.S. House, AK-1, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

394LV
Sep.6-14
394LV
Peltola
58%
Peltola
58%

Peltola

58%

Palin

42%
42%
Palin  Peltola+15
394LV
Sep.6-14
394LV
Peltola
51%
Peltola
51%

Peltola

51%

Palin

28%

Begich

21%
28%
PalinPeltola+23
394LV
Sep.6-14
394LV
Peltola
50%
Peltola
50%

Peltola

50%

Palin

27%

Begich

20%

Bye

3%
27%
PalinPeltola+23

Sept. 10, 2022

U.S. Senate, Alaska, 2022

500LV
Sep.6-11
500LV
Tshibaka
50%
Tshibaka
50%

Tshibaka

50%

Murkowski

50%
50%
Murkowski  Even
500LV
Sep.6-11
500LV
Tshibaka
47%
Tshibaka
47%

Tshibaka

47%

Murkowski

38%

Chesbro

14%
38%
MurkowskiTshibaka+9
500LV
Sep.6-11
500LV
Tshibaka
46%
Tshibaka
46%

Tshibaka

46%

Murkowski

38%

Chesbro

14%

Kelley

2%
38%
MurkowskiTshibaka+8

U.S. House, AK-1, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

500LV
Sep.6-11
500LV
Peltola
53%
Peltola
53%

Peltola

53%

Palin

47%
47%
Palin  Peltola+6
500LV
Sep.6-11
500LV
Peltola
47%
Peltola
47%

Peltola

47%

Palin

32%

Begich

21%
32%
PalinPeltola+15
500LV
Sep.6-11
500LV
Peltola
46%
Peltola
46%

Peltola

46%

Palin

31%

Begich

20%

Bye

2%
31%
PalinPeltola+15

Governor, Alaska, 2022

500LV
Sep.6-11
500LV
Gara
41%
Gara
41%

Gara

41%

Dunleavy

59%
59%
Dunleavy  Dunleavy+18
500LV
Sep.6-11
500LV
Gara
26%
Gara
26%

Gara

26%

Dunleavy

54%

Walker

20%
54%
DunleavyDunleavy+28
500LV
Sep.6-11
500LV
Gara
26%
Gara
26%

Gara

26%

Dunleavy

49%

Walker

17%

Pierce

6%
49%
DunleavyDunleavy+23

July 24, 2022

U.S. House, AK-1, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

1,253LV
Jul.20-25
1,253LV
Peltola
53%
Peltola
53%

Peltola

53%

Palin

48%
48%
Palin  Peltola+5
1,253LV
Jul.20-25
1,253LV
Peltola
46%
Peltola
46%

Peltola

46%

Begich

54%
54%
Begich  Begich+8
1,253LV
Jul.20-25
1,253LV
Peltola
42%
Peltola
42%

Peltola

42%

Begich

29%

Palin

29%
29%
BegichPeltola+13
1,253LV
Jul.20-25
1,253LV
Peltola
39%
Peltola
39%

Peltola

39%

Palin

27%

Begich

26%

Sweeney

8%
27%
PalinPeltola+13
1,219LV
Jul.20-25
1,219LV
Peltola
51%
Peltola
51%

Peltola

51%

Palin

49%
49%
Palin  Peltola+2
1,219LV
Jul.20-25
1,219LV
Peltola
45%
Peltola
45%

Peltola

45%

Begich

55%
55%
Begich  Begich+9
1,219LV
Jul.20-25
1,219LV
Peltola
41%
Peltola
41%

Peltola

41%

Begich

30%

Palin

29%
30%
BegichPeltola+12

July 23, 2022

Governor, Alaska, 2022

613LV
Jul.22-24
613LV
Walker
50%
Walker
50%

Walker

50%

Dunleavy

50%
50%
Dunleavy  Even

July 4, 2022

U.S. Senate, Alaska, 2022

1,201LV
Jul.2-5
1,201LV
Murkowski
52%
Murkowski
52%

Murkowski

52%

Tshibaka

48%
48%
Tshibaka  Murkowski+4
1,201LV
Jul.2-5
1,201LV
Tshibaka
45%
Tshibaka
45%

Tshibaka

45%

Murkowski

36%

Chesbro

20%
36%
MurkowskiTshibaka+9
1,201LV
Jul.2-5
1,201LV
Tshibaka
43%
Tshibaka
43%

Tshibaka

43%

Murkowski

35%

Chesbro

17%

Darden

5%
35%
MurkowskiTshibaka+7

U.S. House, AK-1, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

1,201LV
Jul.2-5
1,201LV
Peltola
38%
Peltola
38%

Peltola

38%

Begich

27%

Palin

27%

Sweeney

8%
27%
BegichPeltola+10
1,201LV
Jul.2-5
1,201LV
Peltola
44%
Peltola
44%

Peltola

44%

Begich

56%
56%
Begich  Begich+12
1,201LV
Jul.2-5
1,201LV
Peltola
41%
Peltola
41%

Peltola

41%

Begich

31%

Palin

29%
31%
BegichPeltola+10
1,201LV
Jul.2-5
1,201LV
Peltola
43%
Peltola
43%

Peltola

43%

Begich

57%
57%
Begich  Begich+14
1,201LV
Jul.2-5
1,201LV
Peltola
40%
Peltola
40%

Peltola

40%

Begich

31%

Palin

29%
31%
BegichPeltola+9

Governor, Alaska, 2022

1,201LV
Jul.2-5
1,201LV
Gara
26%
Gara
26%

Gara

26%

Dunleavy

51%

Walker

23%
51%
DunleavyDunleavy+25
1,201LV
Jul.2-5
1,201LV
Gara
26%
Gara
26%

Gara

26%

Dunleavy

44%

Walker

20%

Pierce

11%
44%
DunleavyDunleavy+18
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

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Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

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Campaign poll

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