UPDATED Jan. 26, 2022, at 6:46 PM

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Who’s ahead in Arizona?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

 

DatesPollsterSampleResultNet result
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz. Ariz.
Jan 21-24, 2022
1,469 LV
Jan 21-24, 2022
1,469LVKelly
49%

Kelly

49%

Brnovich

47%
47%
BrnovichKelly+2
U.S. Senate
Ariz. Ariz.
Jan 21-24, 2022
1,469 LV
Jan 21-24, 2022
1,469LVKelly
50%

Kelly

50%

Ducey

47%
47%
DuceyKelly+3

Key

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

Nov. 28, 2021

Governor
Governor
Ariz. Ariz.
Nov 10, 2021
539 LV
Nov 10, 2021
539LVHobbs
43%

Hobbs

43%

Salmon

35%
35%
SalmonHobbs+8
Governor
Ariz. Ariz.
Nov 10, 2021
539 LV
Nov 10, 2021
539LVHobbs
41%

Hobbs

41%

Lake

37%
37%
LakeHobbs+4
Governor
Ariz. Ariz.
Nov 10, 2021
624 RV
Nov 10, 2021
624RVHobbs
40%

Hobbs

40%

Salmon

31%
31%
SalmonHobbs+9
Governor
Ariz. Ariz.
Nov 10, 2021
624 RV
Nov 10, 2021
624RVHobbs
39%

Hobbs

39%

Lake

34%
34%
LakeHobbs+5

Nov. 22, 2021

President: general election
President: general election Ariz.
Ariz.
Nov 11-16, 2021
600 LV
Nov 11-16, 2021
600LVBiden
43%

Biden

43%

Trump Sr.

51%
51%
Trump Sr.Trump Sr.+8

Nov. 17, 2021

President: Republican primary
President: Republican primary Ariz.
Ariz.
Nov 1-8, 2021
252 RV
Nov 1-8, 2021
252RVDeSantis
29%

DeSantis

29%

Pence

21%

Cruz

10%

Haley

8%

Trump Jr.

8%

Romney

4%

Rubio

2%

Cheney

1%

Christie

0%
MoreDeSantis+8
President: Republican primary Ariz.
Ariz.
Nov 1-8, 2021
252 RV
Nov 1-8, 2021
252RVTrump Sr.
48%

Trump Sr.

48%

DeSantis

16%

Pence

9%

Haley

6%

Romney

3%

Cruz

3%

Rubio

2%

Cheney

1%

Christie

1%
MoreTrump Sr.+32

Sept. 29, 2021

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz. Ariz.
Sep 7-12, 2021
882 RV
Sep 7-12, 2021
882RVKelly
44%

Kelly

44%

Masters

35%
35%
MastersKelly+9
U.S. Senate
Ariz. Ariz.
Sep 7-12, 2021
882 RV
Sep 7-12, 2021
882RVKelly
43%

Kelly

43%

Lamon

36%
36%
LamonKelly+7
U.S. Senate
Ariz. Ariz.
Sep 7-12, 2021
882 RV
Sep 7-12, 2021
882RVKelly
43%

Kelly

43%

Brnovich

39%
39%
BrnovichKelly+4
U.S. Senate
Ariz. Ariz.
Sep 7-12, 2021
882 RV
Sep 7-12, 2021
882RVKelly
44%

Kelly

44%

McGuire

37%
37%
McGuireKelly+7
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