See who's ahead in our 2020 national polling averages 📈

UPDATED Jul. 12, 2020, at 2:08 PM

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Updated throughout the day.

Who’s ahead in Arizona?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

 

DatesPollsterSampleResultNet result
President: general election
President: general election Ariz.
Ariz.
Jul 7-10, 2020
1,087 LV
Jul 7-10, 2020
1,087LVBiden
46%

Biden

46%

Trump

46%
46%
TrumpEven
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Jul 7-10, 2020
1,087 LV
Jul 7-10, 2020
1,087LVKelly
46%

Kelly

46%

McSally

42%
42%
McSallyKelly+4

Key

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

July 10, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Ariz.
Ariz.
Apr 13-16, 2020
500 LV
Apr 13-16, 2020
500LVBiden
47%

Biden

47%

Trump

46%
46%
TrumpBiden+1

July 8, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Jun 20-23, 2020
946 LV
Jun 20-23, 2020
946LVKelly
50%

Kelly

50%

McCarthy

44%
44%
McCarthyKelly+6
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Jun 20-23, 2020
946 LV
Jun 20-23, 2020
946LVKelly
50%

Kelly

50%

McSally

42%
42%
McSallyKelly+8

July 7, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Jun 19-24, 2020
800 LV
Jun 19-24, 2020
800LVKelly
49%

Kelly

49%

McSally

42%
42%
McSallyKelly+7

July 1, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Ariz.
Ariz.
Jun 27-29, 2020
600 LV
Jun 27-29, 2020
600LVBiden
47%

Biden

47%

Trump

45%
45%
TrumpBiden+2
President: general election Ariz.
Ariz.
Jun 26-28, 2020
311 LV
Jun 26-28, 2020
311LVBiden
51%

Biden

51%

Trump

44%
44%
TrumpBiden+7
President: general election Ariz.
Ariz.
Jun 27, 2020
527 LV
Jun 27, 2020
527LVBiden
45%

Biden

45%

Trump

49%
49%
TrumpTrump+4
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Jun 27-29, 2020
600 LV
Jun 27-29, 2020
600LVKelly
50%

Kelly

50%

McSally

43%
43%
McSallyKelly+7
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Jun 26-28, 2020
311 LV
Jun 26-28, 2020
311LVKelly
53%

Kelly

53%

McSally

44%
44%
McSallyKelly+9
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Jun 27, 2020
527 LV
Jun 27, 2020
527LVKelly
42%

Kelly

42%

McSally

46%
46%
McSallyMcSally+4
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