See who's ahead in our 2020 national polling averages 📈

UPDATED Sep. 22, 2020, at 6:12 AM

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Who’s ahead in Arizona?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

 

DatesPollsterSampleResultNet result
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Sep 11-20, 2020
Sep 11-20, 2020
Kelly
49%

Kelly

49%

McSally

40%
40%
McSallyKelly+9
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Sep 14-16, 2020
800 LV
Sep 14-16, 2020
800LVKelly
48%

Kelly

48%

McSally

46%
46%
McSallyKelly+2

Key

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

Sept. 18, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Ariz.
Ariz.
Sep 12-16, 2020
855 LV
Sep 12-16, 2020
855LVBiden
47%

Biden

47%

Trump

42%

Jorgensen

1%

Hawkins

0%
MoreBiden+5
President: general election Ariz.
Ariz.
Sep 10-15, 2020
653 LV
Sep 10-15, 2020
653LVBiden
49%

Biden

49%

Trump

40%

Jorgensen

4%
MoreBiden+9
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Sep 12-16, 2020
855 LV
Sep 12-16, 2020
855LVKelly
52%

Kelly

52%

McSally

35%
35%
McSallyKelly+17
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Sep 10-15, 2020
653 LV
Sep 10-15, 2020
653LVKelly
50%

Kelly

50%

McSally

42%
42%
McSallyKelly+8

Sept. 17, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Ariz.
Ariz.
Sep 11-15, 2020
420 LV
Sep 11-15, 2020
420LVBiden
47%

Biden

47%

Trump

47%
47%
TrumpEven
President: general election Ariz.
Ariz.
Sep 11-15, 2020
420 LV
Sep 11-15, 2020
420LVBiden
48%

Biden

48%

Trump

46%
46%
TrumpBiden+2
President: general election Ariz.
Ariz.
Sep 11-15, 2020
420 RV
Sep 11-15, 2020
420RVBiden
48%

Biden

48%

Trump

44%

Jorgensen

4%
MoreBiden+4
President: general election Ariz.
Ariz.
Aug 29-Sep 13, 2020
1,298 RV
Aug 29-Sep 13, 2020
1,298RVBiden
45%

Biden

45%

Trump

40%
40%
TrumpBiden+5
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Sep 11-15, 2020
420 LV
Sep 11-15, 2020
420LVKelly
49%

Kelly

49%

McSally

48%
48%
McSallyKelly+1
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Sep 11-15, 2020
420 LV
Sep 11-15, 2020
420LVKelly
50%

Kelly

50%

McSally

46%
46%
McSallyKelly+4
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Sep 11-15, 2020
420 RV
Sep 11-15, 2020
420RVKelly
50%

Kelly

50%

McSally

44%
44%
McSallyKelly+6
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Aug 29-Sep 13, 2020
1,298 RV
Aug 29-Sep 13, 2020
1,298RVKelly
44%

Kelly

44%

McSally

36%
36%
McSallyKelly+8

Sept. 16, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Sep 8-10, 2020
600 LV
Sep 8-10, 2020
600LVKelly
52%

Kelly

52%

McSally

42%
42%
McSallyKelly+10

Sept. 14, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Ariz.
Ariz.
Sep 8-10, 2020
600 LV
Sep 8-10, 2020
600LVBiden
52%

Biden

52%

Trump

42%
42%
TrumpBiden+10
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