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Who’s ahead in the Arizona race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

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ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

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REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending May 15, 2022

President: general election, Arizona, 2024

608LV
May 12-16
608LV
Biden
41%
Biden
41%

Biden

41%

Trump Sr.

41%
41%
Trump Sr.  Even

U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2022

608LV
May 12-16
608LV
Kelly
49%
Kelly
49%

Kelly

49%

Masters

32%
32%
Masters  Kelly+16
608LV
May 12-16
608LV
Kelly
48%
Kelly
48%

Kelly

48%

Lamon

34%
34%
Lamon  Kelly+13
608LV
May 12-16
608LV
Kelly
50%
Kelly
50%

Kelly

50%

Brnovich

33%
33%
Brnovich  Kelly+17

May 14, 2022

Governor, Arizona, 2022

400LV
May 9-15
400LV
Hobbs
47%
Hobbs
47%

Hobbs

47%

Taylor Robson

46%
46%
Taylor Robson  Hobbs+1
400LV
May 9-15
400LV
Hobbs
50%
Hobbs
50%

Hobbs

50%

Lake

45%
45%
Lake  Hobbs+5

Feb. 12, 2022

Governor, Arizona, 2022

1,000LV
Feb.11-13
1,000LV
Hobbs
41%
Hobbs
41%

Hobbs

41%

Gaynor

39%
39%
Gaynor  Hobbs+2
1,000LV
Feb.11-13
1,000LV
Hobbs
41%
Hobbs
41%

Hobbs

41%

Salmon

39%
39%
Salmon  Hobbs+1
1,000LV
Feb.11-13
1,000LV
Hobbs
42%
Hobbs
42%

Hobbs

42%

Taylor Robson

37%
37%
Taylor Robson  Hobbs+5
1,000LV
Feb.11-13
1,000LV
Hobbs
41%
Hobbs
41%

Hobbs

41%

Lake

43%
43%
Lake  Lake+1

Jan. 23, 2022

U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2022

1,469LV
Jan.21-24
1,469LV
Kelly
49%
Kelly
49%

Kelly

49%

Brnovich

47%
47%
Brnovich  Kelly+2
1,469LV
Jan.21-24
1,469LV
Kelly
50%
Kelly
50%

Kelly

50%

Ducey

47%
47%
Ducey  Kelly+3

Nov. 15, 2021

President: general election, Arizona, 2024

600LV
Nov.11-16
600LV
Biden
43%
Biden
43%

Biden

43%

Trump Sr.

51%
51%
Trump Sr.  Trump Sr.+8
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