UPDATED Sep. 27, 2022, at 8:10 PM

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Who’s ahead in the Arizona race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Sept. 24, 2022

U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

500LV
Sep.21-25
500LV
Kelly
49%
Kelly
49%

Kelly

49%

Masters

42%

Victor

2%
42%
MastersKelly+7

Sept. 18, 2022

U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

768LV
Sep.15-19
768LV
Kelly
48%
Kelly
48%

Kelly

48%

Masters

47%

Victor

2%
47%
MastersKelly+1

Governor, Arizona, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

768LV
Sep.15-19
768LV
Hobbs
47%
Hobbs
47%

Hobbs

47%

Lake

51%
51%
Lake  Lake+4

Sept. 16, 2022

U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

1,080LV
Sep.14-17
1,080LV
Kelly
47%
Kelly
47%

Kelly

47%

Masters

45%

Victor

3%
45%
MastersKelly+1

Sept. 14, 2022

U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

500LV
Sep.8-15
500LV
Kelly
52%
Kelly
52%

Kelly

52%

Masters

45%
45%
Masters  Kelly+7
500LV
Sep.8-15
500LV
Kelly
50%
Kelly
50%

Kelly

50%

Masters

42%

Victor

4%
42%
MastersKelly+8

Sept. 8, 2022

U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

654LV
Sep.6-9
654LV
Kelly
47%
Kelly
47%

Kelly

47%

Masters

35%

Victor

6%
35%
MastersKelly+12
972RV
Sep.6-9
972RV
Kelly
53%
Kelly
53%

Kelly

53%

Masters

32%
32%
Masters  Kelly+21
563LV
Sep.6-9
563LV
Kelly
55%
Kelly
55%

Kelly

55%

Masters

35%
35%
Masters  Kelly+20

Governor, Arizona, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

563LV
Sep.6-9
563LV
Hobbs
53%
Hobbs
53%

Hobbs

53%

Lake

39%
39%
Lake  Hobbs+14
972RV
Sep.6-9
972RV
Hobbs
49%
Hobbs
49%

Hobbs

49%

Lake

37%
37%
Lake  Hobbs+12
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