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Who’s ahead in the Arizona race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Nov. 6, 2023

President: general election, Arizona, 2024

Oct. 30-Nov. 7
800RV
Oct. 30-Nov. 7
800RV
Biden
36%
Biden
36%

Biden

36%

Trump

40%

Kennedy

11%

West

1%
40%
TrumpTrump+4
Oct. 30-Nov. 7
800RV
Oct. 30-Nov. 7
800RV
Biden
42%
Biden
42%

Biden

42%

Trump

46%
46%
Trump  Trump+4

Nov. 3, 2023

President: general election, Arizona, 2024

Oct. 30-Nov. 4
778LV
Oct. 30-Nov. 4
778LV
Biden
44%
Biden
44%

Biden

44%

Trump

46%
46%
Trump  Trump+2
Oct. 30-Nov. 4
1,000RV
Oct. 30-Nov. 4
1,000RV
Biden
41%
Biden
41%

Biden

41%

Trump

43%
43%
Trump  Trump+2

Nov. 2, 2023

President: general election, Arizona, 2024

Oct. 22-Nov. 3
603LV
Oct. 22-Nov. 3
603LV
Biden
34%
Biden
34%

Biden

34%

Trump

34%

Kennedy

24%
34%
TrumpEven
Oct. 22-Nov. 3
603RV
Oct. 22-Nov. 3
603RV
Biden
33%
Biden
33%

Biden

33%

Trump

33%

Kennedy

26%
33%
TrumpEven
Oct. 22-Nov. 3
603LV
Oct. 22-Nov. 3
603LV
Biden
37%
Biden
37%

Biden

37%

Haley

46%
46%
Haley  Haley+9
Oct. 22-Nov. 3
603RV
Oct. 22-Nov. 3
603RV
Biden
38%
Biden
38%

Biden

38%

Haley

45%
45%
Haley  Haley+7
Oct. 22-Nov. 3
603LV
Oct. 22-Nov. 3
603LV
Biden
42%
Biden
42%

Biden

42%

DeSantis

46%
46%
DeSantis  DeSantis+4
Oct. 22-Nov. 3
603RV
Oct. 22-Nov. 3
603RV
Biden
41%
Biden
41%

Biden

41%

DeSantis

46%
46%
DeSantis  DeSantis+5
Oct. 22-Nov. 3
603LV
Oct. 22-Nov. 3
603LV
Harris
43%
Harris
43%

Harris

43%

Trump

48%
48%
Trump  Trump+5
Oct. 22-Nov. 3
603RV
Oct. 22-Nov. 3
603RV
Harris
43%
Harris
43%

Harris

43%

Trump

48%
48%
Trump  Trump+5
Oct. 22-Nov. 3
603LV
Oct. 22-Nov. 3
603LV
Biden
44%
Biden
44%

Biden

44%

Trump

49%
49%
Trump  Trump+5
Oct. 22-Nov. 3
603RV
Oct. 22-Nov. 3
603RV
Biden
44%
Biden
44%

Biden

44%

Trump

49%
49%
Trump  Trump+5

Oct. 30, 2023

President: general election, Arizona, 2024

Oct. 25-31
1,010RV
Oct. 25-31
1,010RV
Biden
37%
Biden
37%

Biden

37%

DeSantis

40%
40%
DeSantis  DeSantis+3
Oct. 25-31
1,010RV
Oct. 25-31
1,010RV
Biden
38%
Biden
38%

Biden

38%

Trump

46%
46%
Trump  Trump+8

President: Republican primary, Arizona, 2024

Oct. 25-31
348RV
Oct. 25-31
348RV
Trump
68%
Trump
68%

Trump

68%

DeSantis

32%
32%
DeSantis  Trump+36
Oct. 25-31
348RV
Oct. 25-31
348RV
Trump
53%
Trump
53%

Trump

53%

DeSantis

16%

Ramaswamy

9%

Haley

8%

Pence

3%

Christie

3%

Scott

1%

Burgum

1%

Johnson

0%

Binkley

0%
16%
DeSantisTrump+37

U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2024

Oct. 25-31
1,010RV
Oct. 25-31
1,010RV
Gallego
36%
Gallego
36%

Gallego

36%

Lamb

32%

Sinema

32%
32%
LambGallego+4
Oct. 25-31
1,010RV
Oct. 25-31
1,010RV
Gallego
39%
Gallego
39%

Gallego

39%

Lake

33%

Sinema

29%
33%
LakeGallego+6

Oct. 24, 2023

U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2024

Oct. 24-25
600LV
Oct. 24-25
600LV
Gallego
46%
Gallego
46%

Gallego

46%

Lake

43%
43%
Lake  Gallego+3
Oct. 24-25
600LV
Oct. 24-25
600LV
Gallego
36%
Gallego
36%

Gallego

36%

Lake

37%

Sinema

15%
37%
LakeLake+1
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