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Who’s ahead in the California race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

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PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Nov. 5, 2022

U.S. Senate, California, 2022

450LV
Nov.4-6
450LV
Padilla
53%
Padilla
53%

Padilla

53%

Meuser

37%
37%
Meuser  Padilla+16
450LV
Nov.4-6
450LV
Padilla
53%
Padilla
53%

Padilla

53%

Meuser

37%
37%
Meuser  Padilla+16

Governor, California, 2022

450LV
Nov.4-6
450LV
Newsom
60%
Newsom
60%

Newsom

60%

Dahle

40%
40%
Dahle  Newsom+20

Nov. 1, 2022

Oct. 30, 2022

Oct. 26, 2022

Governor, California, 2022

200LV
Jul.29-Oct.27
200LV
Newsom
61%
Newsom
61%

Newsom

61%

Dahle

39%
39%
Dahle  Newsom+22

Oct. 25, 2022

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Campaign poll

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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