UPDATED Apr. 12, 2021, at 10:14 AM

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Who’s ahead in California?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

Added Dec. 14, 2020

DatesPollsterSampleResultNet result
President: general election
President: general election Calif.
Calif.
Oct 27-31, 2020
1,155 RV
Oct 27-31, 2020
1,155RVBiden
65%

Biden

65%

Trump

28%
28%
TrumpBiden+37

Key

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

Nov. 4, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Calif.
Calif.
Oct 20-Nov 2, 2020
12,370 LV
Oct 20-Nov 2, 2020
12,370LVBiden
62%

Biden

62%

Trump

36%
36%
TrumpBiden+26
President: general election Calif.
Calif.
Oct 20-Nov 2, 2020
12,370 RV
Oct 20-Nov 2, 2020
12,370RVBiden
62%

Biden

62%

Trump

35%
35%
TrumpBiden+27

Nov. 2, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Calif.
Calif.
Oct 28-Nov 1, 2020
800 LV
Oct 28-Nov 1, 2020
800LVBiden
62%

Biden

62%

Trump

31%
31%
TrumpBiden+31

Oct. 30, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Calif.
Calif.
Oct 23-26, 2020
635 LV
Oct 23-26, 2020
635LVBiden
62%

Biden

62%

Trump

35%

Jorgensen

2%

Hawkins

1%
MoreBiden+27

Oct. 27, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Calif.
Calif.
Oct 16-21, 2020
5,352 LV
Oct 16-21, 2020
5,352LVBiden
65%

Biden

65%

Trump

29%
29%
TrumpBiden+36
U.S. House
U.S. House
CA-50CA-50
Oct 22-26, 2020
538 LV
Oct 22-26, 2020
538LVCampa-Najjar
40%

Campa-Najjar

40%

Issa

51%
51%
IssaIssa+11
U.S. House
CA-50CA-50
Oct 10-13, 2020
401 LV
Oct 10-13, 2020
401LVCampa-Najjar
42%

Campa-Najjar

42%

Issa

42%
42%
IssaEven
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