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Who’s ahead in the California race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

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ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

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REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending March 2, 2022

U.S. House, CA-41, 2022

600LV
Feb.25-Mar.3
600LV
Rollins
42%
Rollins
42%

Rollins

42%

Calvert

41%
41%
Calvert  Rollins+1

Sept. 12, 2021

Governor, California, 2021

1,082LV
Sep.11-13
1,082LV
Paffrath
10%
Paffrath
10%

Paffrath

10%

Elder

41%

Faulconer

4%

Kiley

4%

McGowan

4%

Cox

3%

Ross

1%

Drake

1%

Jenner

1%
41%
ElderElder+32

Sept. 10, 2021

Governor, California, 2021

1,000LV
Sep.10-11
1,000LV
Drake
6%
Drake
6%

Drake

6%

Elder

30%

Paffrath

6%

Faulconer

4%

Kiley

4%

McGowan

3%

Cox

3%

Jenner

2%

Ose

1%
30%
ElderElder+24

Sept. 9, 2021

Governor, California, 2021

2,557LV
Sep.2-10
2,557LV
Elder
22%
Elder
22%

Elder

22%

Cox

7%

Paffrath

6%

Ross

5%

McGowan

4%

Faulconer

4%

Kiley

3%

Watts

3%

Baade

2%

Jenner

1%
7%
CoxElder+15

Governor recall, California

2,464LV
Sep.2-10
2,464LV
Keep
57%
Keep
57%

Keep

57%

Remove

43%
43%
Remove  Keep+14

Sept. 7, 2021

Governor, California, 2021

597LV
Sep.7-8
597LV
Paffrath
9%
Paffrath
9%

Paffrath

9%

Elder

29%

Cox

8%

Faulconer

6%

Drake

4%

Baade

4%

McGowan

4%

Ross

3%

Kiley

3%

Kilpatrick

2%

Ventresca

2%

Watts

2%

Jenner

2%

Perez-Serrato

1%
29%
ElderElder+20
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