UPDATED Sep. 17, 2021, at 8:50 AM

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Who’s ahead in California?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

 

DatesPollsterSampleResultNet result
Governor
Governor
Calif.Calif.
Aug 30-Sep 6, 2021
9,809 RV
Aug 30-Sep 6, 2021
9,809RVNewsom
49%

Newsom

49%

Faulconer

27%
27%
FaulconerNewsom+22
Governor
Calif.Calif.
Aug 30-Sep 6, 2021
9,809 RV
Aug 30-Sep 6, 2021
9,809RVNewsom
50%

Newsom

50%

Kiley

25%
25%
KileyNewsom+25
Governor
Calif.Calif.
Aug 30-Sep 6, 2021
9,809 RV
Aug 30-Sep 6, 2021
9,809RVNewsom
51%

Newsom

51%

Cox

26%
26%
CoxNewsom+25
Governor
Calif.Calif.
Aug 30-Sep 6, 2021
9,809 RV
Aug 30-Sep 6, 2021
9,809RVNewsom
52%

Newsom

52%

Elder

30%
30%
ElderNewsom+22

Key

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

Sept. 12, 2021

Governor
Governor
Calif.Calif.
Sep 11-13, 2021
1,082 LV
Sep 11-13, 2021
1,082LVPaffrath
10%

Paffrath

10%

Elder

41%

Faulconer

4%

Kiley

4%

McGowan

4%

Cox

3%

Ross

1%

Drake

1%

Jenner

1%
MoreElder+32
Governor recall
Governor recall Calif.
Calif.
Sep 11-13, 2021
1,082 LV
Sep 11-13, 2021
1,082LVKeep
53%

Keep

53%

Remove

45%
45%
RemoveKeep+9
Governor recall Calif.
Calif.
Aug 30-Sep 13, 2021
3,985 LV
Aug 30-Sep 13, 2021
3,985LVKeep
55%

Keep

55%

Remove

41%
41%
RemoveKeep+14
Governor recall Calif.
Calif.
Sep 10-11, 2021
1,000 LV
Sep 10-11, 2021
1,000LVKeep
60%

Keep

60%

Remove

40%
40%
RemoveKeep+20
Governor
Governor
Calif.Calif.
Sep 10-11, 2021
1,000 LV
Sep 10-11, 2021
1,000LVDrake
6%

Drake

6%

Elder

30%

Paffrath

6%

Faulconer

4%

Kiley

4%

McGowan

3%

Cox

3%

Jenner

2%

Ose

1%
MoreElder+24

Sept. 9, 2021

Governor
Governor
Calif.Calif.
Sep 2-10, 2021
2,557 LV
Sep 2-10, 2021
2,557LVElder
22%

Elder

22%

Cox

7%

Paffrath

6%

Ross

5%

McGowan

4%

Faulconer

4%

Kiley

3%

Watts

3%

Baade

2%

Jenner

1%
MoreElder+15
Governor recall
Governor recall Calif.
Calif.
Sep 2-10, 2021
2,464 LV
Sep 2-10, 2021
2,464LVKeep
57%

Keep

57%

Remove

43%
43%
RemoveKeep+14
Governor
Governor
Calif.Calif.
Aug 30-Sep 6, 2021
4,441 LV
Aug 30-Sep 6, 2021
4,441LVPaffrath
10%

Paffrath

10%

Elder

38%

Faulconer

8%

Cox

4%

Kiley

4%

Ross

4%

McGowan

2%

Ventresca

2%

Baade

1%

Drake

1%

Hewitt

1%

Jenner

1%

Kapelovitz

1%

Kilpatrick

1%

Perez-Serrato

1%

Watts

1%
MoreElder+28
Governor recall
Governor recall Calif.
Calif.
Aug 30-Sep 6, 2021
6,550 LV
Aug 30-Sep 6, 2021
6,550LVKeep
60%

Keep

60%

Remove

39%
39%
RemoveKeep+22

Sept. 8, 2021

Governor
Governor
Calif.Calif.
Sep 7-8, 2021
597 LV
Sep 7-8, 2021
597LVPaffrath
9%

Paffrath

9%

Elder

29%

Cox

8%

Faulconer

6%

Drake

4%

Baade

4%

McGowan

4%

Ross

3%

Kiley

3%

Kilpatrick

2%

Ventresca

2%

Watts

2%

Jenner

2%

Perez-Serrato

1%
MoreElder+20
Governor recall
Governor recall Calif.
Calif.
Sep 7-8, 2021
930 LV
Sep 7-8, 2021
930LVKeep
54%

Keep

54%

Remove

41%
41%
RemoveKeep+13

Sept. 7, 2021

Governor recall
Governor recall Calif.
Calif.
Sep 6-7, 2021
500 LV
Sep 6-7, 2021
500LVKeep
58%

Keep

58%

Remove

41%
41%
RemoveKeep+17
Governor
Governor
Calif.Calif.
Sep 6-7, 2021
500 LV
Sep 6-7, 2021
500LVElder
39%

Elder

39%

Faulconer

5%

Paffrath

5%

Cox

4%

Kiley

2%

McGowan

2%

Ross

2%

Drake

1%

Gaines

1%

Hewitt

1%

Jenner

1%

Ventresca

1%

Baade

0%

Perez-Serrato

0%
MoreElder+34
Governor recall
Governor recall Calif.
Calif.
Aug 27-Sep 1, 2021
1,955 LV
Aug 27-Sep 1, 2021
1,955LVKeep
56%

Keep

56%

Remove

44%
44%
RemoveKeep+12
Governor
Governor
Calif.Calif.
Aug 27-Sep 1, 2021
1,955 LV
Aug 27-Sep 1, 2021
1,955LVPaffrath
6%

Paffrath

6%

Elder

20%

Faulconer

4%

Cox

4%

McGowan

2%

Kiley

2%

Watts

2%

Ross

1%

Angelyne

1%

Baade

1%

Drake

1%

Stoner

1%

Jenner

1%

Lodge

1%

Lozano

1%

Ventresca

1%

Kapelovitz

1%

Perez-Serrato

1%

Moore

1%

Ose

1%

Kaul

1%

Trimino

1%

Loebs

1%

Gaines

1%

Kilpatrick

1%

Newman

1%

Collins

1%

Martinez

1%

Hewitt

1%

Marciniak

0%

Le Roux

0%

Gallucci

0%

Richter

0%

Furin

0%

Hanink

0%

Symmon

0%

Singh

0%

Lucey

0%

Stephens

0%

Hillberg

0%

Zacky

0%

Killens

0%

Papagan

0%

Wildstar

0%

Bramante

0%

Mercuri

0%
MoreElder+14
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