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Who’s ahead in the California race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Feb. 17, 2024

President: general election, California, 2024

Feb. 16-18
1,000RV
Feb. 16-18
1,000RV
Biden
49%
Biden
49%

Biden

49%

Trump

31%

Kennedy

8%

West

1%

Stein

1%
31%
TrumpBiden+18
Feb. 16-18
1,000RV
Feb. 16-18
1,000RV
Biden
55%
Biden
55%

Biden

55%

Trump

33%
33%
Trump  Biden+23

President: Democratic primary, California, 2024

Feb. 16-18
562LV
Feb. 16-18
562LV
Biden
75%
Biden
75%

Biden

75%

Phillips

9%
9%
Phillips  Biden+67

President: Republican primary, California, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Feb. 16-18
315LV
Feb. 16-18
315LV
Trump
72%
Trump
72%

Trump

72%

Haley

20%
20%
Haley  Trump+52

Feb. 3, 2024

President: Republican primary, California, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Jan. 23-Feb. 4
1,095LV
Jan. 23-Feb. 4
1,095LV
Trump
83%
Trump
83%

Trump

83%

Haley

16%
16%
Haley  Trump+67

Jan. 30, 2024

U.S. House, CA-51, 2024

Jan. 26-31
562LV
Jan. 26-31
562LV
Jacobs
56%
Jacobs
56%

Jacobs

56%

Caplan

24%
24%
Caplan  Jacobs+32
Jan. 26-31
562LV
Jan. 26-31
562LV
Jacobs
55%
Jacobs
55%

Jacobs

55%

Wells

34%
34%
Wells  Jacobs+21

Jan. 28, 2024

President: general election, California, 2024

Jan. 21-29
1,416LV
Jan. 21-29
1,416LV
Biden
53%
Biden
53%

Biden

53%

Trump

25%

Kennedy

7%

West

3%

Stein

1%

Mapstead

0%
25%
TrumpBiden+28

President: Democratic primary, California, 2024

Jan. 21-29
792LV
Jan. 21-29
792LV
Biden
78%
Biden
78%

Biden

78%

Phillips

6%

Williamson

6%
6%
PhillipsBiden+72

President: Republican primary, California, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Jan. 21-29
407LV
Jan. 21-29
407LV
Trump
66%
Trump
66%

Trump

66%

Haley

24%

Binkley

0%

Stuckenberg

0%
24%
HaleyTrump+42

Jan. 14, 2024

U.S. House, CA-49, 2024

Jan. 9-15
650LV
Jan. 9-15
650LV
Levin
47%
Levin
47%

Levin

47%

Gunderson

34%
34%
Gunderson  Levin+13
Jan. 9-15
650LV
Jan. 9-15
650LV
Levin
48%
Levin
48%

Levin

48%

Wilkinson

29%
29%
Wilkinson  Levin+19
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

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Candidate is an incumbent

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