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Who’s ahead in the California governor-recall ?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

KEY

ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Governor recall, California

Sept. 11-13
1,082LV
Sept. 11-13
1,082LV
Keep
53%
Keep
53%

Keep

53%

Remove

45%
45%
Remove  Keep+9
Aug. 30-Sept. 13
3,985LV
Aug. 30-Sept. 13
3,985LV
Keep
55%
Keep
55%

Keep

55%

Remove

41%
41%
Remove  Keep+14
Sept. 10-11
1,000LV
Sept. 10-11
1,000LV
Keep
60%
Keep
60%

Keep

60%

Remove

40%
40%
Remove  Keep+20
Sept. 2-10
2,464LV
Sept. 2-10
2,464LV
Keep
57%
Keep
57%

Keep

57%

Remove

43%
43%
Remove  Keep+14
Sept. 7-8
930LV
Sept. 7-8
930LV
Keep
54%
Keep
54%

Keep

54%

Remove

41%
41%
Remove  Keep+13
Sept. 6-7
500LV
Sept. 6-7
500LV
Keep
58%
Keep
58%

Keep

58%

Remove

41%
41%
Remove  Keep+17
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Candidate is an incumbent

Partisan types

Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

Other party-funded

Campaign poll

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