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Who’s ahead in the California House ?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

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ADULTS

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VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

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REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Oct. 30, 2022

U.S. House, CA-49, 2022, General election

Oct. 27-31
568LV
Oct. 27-31
568LV
SurveyUSA
 Levin
49%
 Levin
49%

Levin

49%

Maryott

43%
43%
Maryott  Levin+6

Oct. 5, 2022

U.S. House, CA-27, 2022, General election

Oct. 3-6
400LV
Oct. 3-6
400LV
Mellman Group
 Smith
47%
 Smith
47%

Smith

47%

Garcia

41%
41%
Garcia  Smith+6

Oct. 2, 2022

U.S. House, CA-21, 2022, General election

Sept. 30-Oct. 3
515LV
Sept. 30-Oct. 3
515LV

Trafalgar Group is a partisan pollster for the Republican Party.

Trafalgar Group
 Costa
44%
 Costa
44%

Costa

44%

Maher

44%
44%
Maher  Even

U.S. House, CA-41, 2022, General election

Sept. 28-Oct. 3
600LV
Sept. 28-Oct. 3
600LV
Tulchin Research
 Rollins
44%
 Rollins
44%

Rollins

44%

Calvert

47%
47%
Calvert  Calvert+3

Sept. 17, 2022

U.S. House, CA-26, 2022, General election

Sept. 13-18
400LV
Sept. 13-18
400LV
OnMessage
 Brownley
48%
 Brownley
48%

Brownley

48%

Jacobs

43%
43%
Jacobs  Brownley+5

Aug. 29, 2022

U.S. House, CA-27, 2022, General election

Aug. 25-30
600LV
Aug. 25-30
600LV
Mellman Group
 Smith
44%
 Smith
44%

Smith

44%

Garcia

42%
42%
Garcia  Smith+2
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Candidate is an incumbent

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Republican-funded

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