UPDATED Sep. 28, 2022, at 6:32 PM

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Who’s ahead in the New York 19th District House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

U.S. House, NY-19, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

652LV
Sep.20-22
652LV
Riley
42%
Riley
42%

Riley

42%

Molinaro

51%
51%
Molinaro  Molinaro+10
400LV
Aug.27-Sep.2
400LV
Riley
44%
Riley
44%

Riley

44%

Molinaro

41%
41%
Molinaro  Riley+3
403LV
Aug.29-Sep.1
403LV
Riley
47%
Riley
47%

Riley

47%

Molinaro

44%
44%
Molinaro  Riley+3
1,222LV
Aug.17-22
1,222LV
Ryan
45%
Ryan
45%

Ryan

45%

Molinaro

53%
53%
Molinaro  Molinaro+8
480LV
Aug.6-8
480LV
Ryan
43%
Ryan
43%

Ryan

43%

Molinaro

46%
46%
Molinaro  Molinaro+3
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

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Candidate is an incumbent

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