UPDATED Jan. 20, 2021, at 11:43 AM

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Updated throughout the day.

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Who’s ahead in Iowa?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

Added Nov. 2, 2020

DatesPollsterSampleResultNet result
President: general election
President: general election Iowa
Iowa
Nov 1-2, 2020
871 V
Nov 1-2, 2020
871VBiden
49%

Biden

49%

Trump

48%
48%
TrumpBiden+1
President: general election Iowa
Iowa
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
1,084 LV
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
1,084LVBiden
47%
Tie

Biden

47%

Trump

47%

Jorgensen

3%

Hawkins

0%
MoreEven
President: general election Iowa
Iowa
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
951 LV
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
951LVBiden
47%

Biden

47%

Trump

49%

Jorgensen

3%

Hawkins

1%
MoreTrump+2
President: general election Iowa
Iowa
Oct 20-Nov 1, 2020
1,330 LV
Oct 20-Nov 1, 2020
1,330LVBiden
49%

Biden

49%

Trump

50%
50%
TrumpTrump+1
President: general election Iowa
Iowa
Oct 20-Nov 1, 2020
1,330 RV
Oct 20-Nov 1, 2020
1,330RVBiden
50%

Biden

50%

Trump

49%
49%
TrumpBiden+1
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
IowaIowa
Nov 1-2, 2020
871 V
Nov 1-2, 2020
871VGreenfield
48%

Greenfield

48%

Ernst

47%
47%
ErnstGreenfield+1
U.S. Senate
IowaIowa
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
1,084 LV
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
1,084LVGreenfield
48%

Greenfield

48%

Ernst

47%

Stewart

2%

Herzog

0%
MoreGreenfield+1
U.S. Senate
IowaIowa
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
951 LV
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
951LVGreenfield
49%

Greenfield

49%

Ernst

45%

Herzog

3%

Stewart

2%
MoreGreenfield+4

Key

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

Nov. 1, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Iowa
Iowa
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
853 LV
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
853LVBiden
49%

Biden

49%

Trump

48%
48%
TrumpBiden+1
President: general election Iowa
Iowa
Oct 29-31, 2020
604 LV
Oct 29-31, 2020
604LVBiden
47%

Biden

47%

Trump

49%
49%
TrumpTrump+1
President: general election Iowa
Iowa
Oct 30, 2020
400 LV
Oct 30, 2020
400LVBiden
46%

Biden

46%

Trump

48%

Jorgensen

1%
MoreTrump+2
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
IowaIowa
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
853 LV
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
853LVGreenfield
50%

Greenfield

50%

Ernst

47%

Stewart

1%

Herzog

0%
MoreGreenfield+3
U.S. Senate
IowaIowa
Oct 29-31, 2020
604 LV
Oct 29-31, 2020
604LVGreenfield
51%

Greenfield

51%

Ernst

48%
48%
ErnstGreenfield+3
U.S. Senate
IowaIowa
Oct 30, 2020
400 LV
Oct 30, 2020
400LVGreenfield
45%

Greenfield

45%

Ernst

51%

Stewart

1%

Herzog

1%
MoreErnst+6

Oct. 31, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Iowa
Iowa
Oct 26-29, 2020
814 LV
Oct 26-29, 2020
814LVBiden
41%

Biden

41%

Trump

48%
48%
TrumpTrump+7
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
IowaIowa
Oct 26-29, 2020
814 LV
Oct 26-29, 2020
814LVGreenfield
42%

Greenfield

42%

Ernst

46%
46%
ErnstErnst+4

Oct. 29, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Iowa
Iowa
Oct 23-27, 2020
1,225 LV
Oct 23-27, 2020
1,225LVBiden
46%

Biden

46%

Trump

47%
47%
TrumpTrump+1
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
IowaIowa
Oct 23-27, 2020
1,225 LV
Oct 23-27, 2020
1,225LVGreenfield
46%

Greenfield

46%

Ernst

48%
48%
ErnstErnst+2

Oct. 28, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
IowaIowa
Oct 21-24, 2020
693 LV
Oct 21-24, 2020
693LVGreenfield
51%

Greenfield

51%

Ernst

45%
45%
ErnstGreenfield+6
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