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Who’s ahead in the Missouri race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

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ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending May 14, 2022

U.S. Senate, Missouri, 2022

1,412LV
May 11-15
1,412LV
Kunce
36%
Kunce
36%

Kunce

36%

Greitens

42%
42%
Greitens  Greitens+6
1,412LV
May 11-15
1,412LV
Kunce
31%
Kunce
31%

Kunce

31%

Hartzler

45%
45%
Hartzler  Hartzler+14
1,412LV
May 11-15
1,412LV
Kunce
34%
Kunce
34%

Kunce

34%

Schmitt

46%
46%
Schmitt  Schmitt+12
1,412LV
May 11-15
1,412LV
Valentine
37%
Valentine
37%

Valentine

37%

Greitens

43%
43%
Greitens  Greitens+6
1,412LV
May 11-15
1,412LV
Valentine
33%
Valentine
33%

Valentine

33%

Hartzler

44%
44%
Hartzler  Hartzler+11
1,412LV
May 11-15
1,412LV
Valentine
34%
Valentine
34%

Valentine

34%

Schmitt

47%
47%
Schmitt  Schmitt+13

April 27, 2022

U.S. Senate, Missouri, 2022

986LV
Apr.27-28
986LV
Valentine
33%
Valentine
33%

Valentine

33%

Hartzler

49%
49%
Hartzler  Hartzler+16
986LV
Apr.27-28
986LV
Valentine
32%
Valentine
32%

Valentine

32%

Schmitt

50%
50%
Schmitt  Schmitt+18
986LV
Apr.27-28
986LV
Valentine
37%
Valentine
37%

Valentine

37%

Greitens

46%
46%
Greitens  Greitens+9

March 12, 2022

Dec. 16, 2021

U.S. Senate, Missouri, 2022

1,210LV
Dec.16-17
1,210LV
Sifton
18%
Sifton
18%

Sifton

18%

Schmitt

23%
23%
Schmitt  Schmitt+5
1,210LV
Dec.16-17
1,210LV
Sifton
12%
Sifton
12%

Sifton

12%

Long

13%
13%
Long  Long+1
1,210LV
Dec.16-17
1,210LV
Sifton
17%
Sifton
17%

Sifton

17%

Hartzler

22%
22%
Hartzler  Hartzler+5
1,210LV
Dec.16-17
1,210LV
Sifton
26%
Sifton
26%

Sifton

26%

Greitens

39%
39%
Greitens  Greitens+13
1,210LV
Dec.16-17
1,210LV
Kunce
23%
Kunce
23%

Kunce

23%

Schmitt

28%
28%
Schmitt  Schmitt+5
1,210LV
Dec.16-17
1,210LV
Kunce
17%
Kunce
17%

Kunce

17%

Long

16%
16%
Long  Kunce+1
1,210LV
Dec.16-17
1,210LV
Kunce
16%
Kunce
16%

Kunce

16%

Hartzler

23%
23%
Hartzler  Hartzler+7
1,210LV
Dec.16-17
1,210LV
Kunce
26%
Kunce
26%

Kunce

26%

Greitens

34%
34%
Greitens  Greitens+8

Oct. 3, 2021

U.S. Senate, Missouri, 2022

600LV
Oct.3-4
600LV
Kunce
40%
Kunce
40%

Kunce

40%

Greitens

47%
47%
Greitens  Greitens+7
600LV
Oct.3-4
600LV
Sifton
40%
Sifton
40%

Sifton

40%

Greitens

46%
46%
Greitens  Greitens+6
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Candidate is an incumbent

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Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

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