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Who’s ahead in the Missouri race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Nov. 6, 2022

U.S. Senate, Missouri, 2022

746LV
Nov.4-7
746LV
Busch Valentine
40%
Busch Valentine
40%

Busch Valentine

40%

Schmitt

55%
55%
Schmitt  Schmitt+15

Oct. 31, 2022

U.S. Senate, Missouri, 2022

1,079LV
Oct.30-Nov.1
1,079LV
Busch Valentine
42%
Busch Valentine
42%

Busch Valentine

42%

Schmitt

53%

Dine

2%
53%
SchmittSchmitt+11
791LV
Oct.27-Nov.1
791LV
Busch Valentine
41%
Busch Valentine
41%

Busch Valentine

41%

Schmitt

50%
50%
Schmitt  Schmitt+9

Oct. 27, 2022

President: general election, Missouri, 2024

1,000LV
Oct.26-28
1,000LV
Biden
37%
Biden
37%

Biden

37%

Trump Sr.

53%
53%
Trump Sr.  Trump Sr.+16

U.S. Senate, Missouri, 2022

1,000LV
Oct.26-28
1,000LV
Busch Valentine
40%
Busch Valentine
40%

Busch Valentine

40%

Schmitt

54%

Dine

3%

Venable

1%
54%
SchmittSchmitt+14

Oct. 24, 2022

U.S. Senate, Missouri, 2022

1,011LV
Oct.24-25
1,011LV
Busch Valentine
42%
Busch Valentine
42%

Busch Valentine

42%

Schmitt

51%

Dine

2%

Venable

1%
51%
SchmittSchmitt+9

Sept. 26, 2022

U.S. Senate, Missouri, 2022

1,160LV
Sep.23-27
1,160LV
Busch Valentine
38%
Busch Valentine
38%

Busch Valentine

38%

Schmitt

49%
49%
Schmitt  Schmitt+11
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Candidate is an incumbent

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