UPDATED Sep. 29, 2022, at 1:20 PM

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Who’s ahead in the Montana race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

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PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

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VOTERS

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REGISTERED VOTERS

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Polls ending Sept. 18, 2022

U.S. House, MT-1, 2022

400LV
Sep.14-19
400LV
Tranel
43%
Tranel
43%

Tranel

43%

Zinke

45%

Lamb

3%
45%
ZinkeZinke+2

Sept. 6, 2022

President: general election, Montana, 2024

409LV
Aug.31-Sep.7
409LV
Biden
35%
Biden
35%

Biden

35%

DeSantis

42%
42%
DeSantis  DeSantis+7
409LV
Aug.31-Sep.7
409LV
Biden
36%
Biden
36%

Biden

36%

Trump Sr.

49%
49%
Trump Sr.  Trump Sr.+13

President: Republican primary, Montana, 2024

142LV
Aug.31-Sep.7
142LV
Trump Sr.
56%
Trump Sr.
56%

Trump Sr.

56%

DeSantis

28%
28%
DeSantis  Trump Sr.+28

Nov. 1, 2020

President: general election, Montana, 2020
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

920LV
Oct.29-Nov.2
920LV
Biden
45%
Biden
45%

Biden

45%

Trump

50%

Jorgensen

2%
50%
TrumpTrump+5
1,021LV
Oct.20-Nov.2
1,021LV
Biden
46%
Biden
46%

Biden

46%

Trump

52%
52%
Trump  Trump+6
1,021RV
Oct.20-Nov.2
1,021RV
Biden
46%
Biden
46%

Biden

46%

Trump

51%
51%
Trump  Trump+5

U.S. Senate, Montana, 2020

920LV
Oct.29-Nov.2
920LV
Bullock
46%
Bullock
46%

Bullock

46%

Daines

50%
50%
Daines  Daines+4

Governor, Montana, 2020

920LV
Oct.29-Nov.2
920LV
Cooney
44%
Cooney
44%

Cooney

44%

Gianforte

48%

Bishop

3%
48%
GianforteGianforte+4

Oct. 26, 2020

President: general election, Montana, 2020
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

886V
Oct.26-27
886V
Biden
47%
Biden
47%

Biden

47%

Trump

49%
49%
Trump  Trump+2

U.S. Senate, Montana, 2020

886V
Oct.26-27
886V
Bullock
48%
Bullock
48%

Bullock

48%

Daines

47%
47%
Daines  Bullock+1

Oct. 23, 2020

President: general election, Montana, 2020
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

546LV
Oct.19-24
546LV
Biden
45%
Biden
45%

Biden

45%

Trump

52%

Jorgensen

1%
52%
TrumpTrump+7

U.S. Senate, Montana, 2020

546LV
Oct.19-24
546LV
Bullock
48%
Bullock
48%

Bullock

48%

Daines

47%
47%
Daines  Bullock+1

U.S. House, MT-1, 2020

546LV
Oct.19-24
546LV
Williams
46%
Williams
46%

Williams

46%

Rosendale

47%
47%
Rosendale  Rosendale+1

Governor, Montana, 2020

546LV
Oct.19-24
546LV
Cooney
45%
Cooney
45%

Cooney

45%

Gianforte

45%

Bishop

2%
45%
GianforteEven
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

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