UPDATED Oct. 6, 2022, at 4:13 PM

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Who’s ahead in the Pennsylvania race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

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ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Sept. 29, 2022

U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

971RV
Sep.29-30
971RV
Fetterman
50%
Fetterman
50%

Fetterman

50%

Oz

34%
34%
Oz  Fetterman+16
568LV
Sep.29-30
568LV
Fetterman
55%
Fetterman
55%

Fetterman

55%

Oz

36%
36%
Oz  Fetterman+19
500LV
Sep.27-30
500LV
Fetterman
46%
Fetterman
46%

Fetterman

46%

Oz

40%

Gerhardt

2%

Wassmer

1%

Weiss

0%
40%
OzFetterman+6

Governor, Pennsylvania, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

500LV
Sep.27-30
500LV
Shapiro
48%
Shapiro
48%

Shapiro

48%

Mastriano

37%

Hackenburg

1%

DiGiulio

1%

Soloski

0%
37%
MastrianoShapiro+11

Sept. 25, 2022

U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

1,000LV
Sep.23-26
1,000LV
Fetterman
45%
Fetterman
45%

Fetterman

45%

Oz

43%
43%
Oz  Fetterman+2
1,008RV
Sep.22-26
1,008RV
Fetterman
45%
Fetterman
45%

Fetterman

45%

Oz

41%

Stern

3%
41%
OzFetterman+4

Governor, Pennsylvania, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

1,000LV
Sep.23-26
1,000LV
Shapiro
51%
Shapiro
51%

Shapiro

51%

Mastriano

41%
41%
Mastriano  Shapiro+10
1,008RV
Sep.22-26
1,008RV
Shapiro
51%
Shapiro
51%

Shapiro

51%

Mastriano

40%
40%
Mastriano  Shapiro+11

Sept. 24, 2022

U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

517RV
Sep.19-25
517RV
Fetterman
45%
Fetterman
45%

Fetterman

45%

Oz

42%
42%
Oz  Fetterman+3

Governor, Pennsylvania, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

517RV
Sep.19-25
517RV
Shapiro
51%
Shapiro
51%

Shapiro

51%

Mastriano

37%
37%
Mastriano  Shapiro+14

Sept. 23, 2022

U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

500LV
Sep.23-24
500LV
Fetterman
45%
Fetterman
45%

Fetterman

45%

Oz

42%

Gerhardt

2%
42%
OzFetterman+3

Governor, Pennsylvania, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

500LV
Sep.23-24
500LV
Shapiro
52%
Shapiro
52%

Shapiro

52%

Mastriano

37%

Hackenburg

3%
37%
MastrianoShapiro+15

Sept. 21, 2022

U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

1,242RV
Sep.19-22
1,242RV
Fetterman
51%
Fetterman
51%

Fetterman

51%

Oz

41%
41%
Oz  Fetterman+10

Governor, Pennsylvania, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

1,242RV
Sep.19-22
1,242RV
Shapiro
53%
Shapiro
53%

Shapiro

53%

Mastriano

40%
40%
Mastriano  Shapiro+13
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

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Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

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