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Who’s ahead in Florida?

Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

KEY

ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Republican primary, Florida, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Jan. 23-Feb. 4
1,422LV
Jan. 23-Feb. 4
1,422LV
Trump
85%
Trump
85%

Trump

85%

Haley

14%
14%
Haley  Trump+71
Dec. 8-9
1,220LV
Dec. 8-9
1,220LV
Trump
57%
Trump
57%

Trump

57%

DeSantis

26%
26%
DeSantis  Trump+31
Dec. 8-9
1,220LV
Dec. 8-9
1,220LV
Trump
60%
Trump
60%

Trump

60%

DeSantis

19%

Haley

8%

Christie

5%

Ramaswamy

1%
19%
DeSantisTrump+41
Nov. 1-30
3,148LV
Nov. 1-30
3,148LV
Trump
60%
Trump
60%

Trump

60%

DeSantis

23%

Haley

8%

Ramaswamy

5%

Christie

2%

Scott

1%

Hutchinson

0%

Burgum

0%
23%
DeSantisTrump+37
Oct. 27-Nov. 11
400RV
Oct. 27-Nov. 11
400RV
Trump
63%
Trump
63%

Trump

63%

DeSantis

30%
30%
DeSantis  Trump+33
Oct. 27-Nov. 11
400RV
Oct. 27-Nov. 11
400RV
Trump
61%
Trump
61%

Trump

61%

DeSantis

20%

Haley

9%

Christie

1%

Ramaswamy

0%

Burgum

0%
20%
DeSantisTrump+41
Oct. 23-Nov. 4
788LV
Oct. 23-Nov. 4
788LV
Trump
59%
Trump
59%

Trump

59%

DeSantis

29%
29%
DeSantis  Trump+30
Oct. 23-Nov. 4
788LV
Oct. 23-Nov. 4
788LV
Trump
60%
Trump
60%

Trump

60%

DeSantis

21%

Haley

6%

Christie

2%

Ramaswamy

1%

Pence

1%

Scott

0%

Burgum

0%

Hutchinson

0%
21%
DeSantisTrump+39
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

Partisan types

Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

Other party-funded

Campaign poll

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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