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Who’s ahead in the national polls?

Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

KEY

ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In June 2023, we debuted a new way of calculating our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Republican primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Sep.23-26
513RV
Sep.23-26
513RV
Trump
53%
Trump
53%

Trump

53%

DeSantis

14%

Haley

7%

Ramaswamy

5%

Pence

4%

Scott

3%

Christie

2%

Hutchinson

0%

Burgum

0%

Hurd

0%

Elder

0%
14%
DeSantisTrump+39
Sep.23-26
559A
Sep.23-26
559A
Trump
51%
Trump
51%

Trump

51%

DeSantis

12%

Haley

7%

Pence

5%

Ramaswamy

5%

Scott

3%

Christie

2%

Hutchinson

0%

Burgum

0%

Hurd

0%

Elder

0%
12%
DeSantisTrump+39
Sep.22-26
454LV
Sep.22-26
454LV
Trump
71%
Trump
71%

Trump

71%

DeSantis

28%
28%
DeSantis  Trump+43
Sep.22-26
454LV
Sep.22-26
454LV
Trump
54%
Trump
54%

Trump

54%

DeSantis

12%

Ramaswamy

10%

Haley

6%

Pence

5%

Scott

2%

Christie

2%

Burgum

1%

Hutchinson

1%

Johnson

1%

Hurd

1%

Elder

0%
12%
DeSantisTrump+42
Sep.22-24
3,552LV
Sep.22-24
3,552LV
Trump
58%
Trump
58%

Trump

58%

DeSantis

15%

Ramaswamy

9%

Haley

7%

Pence

6%

Scott

2%

Christie

2%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

1%

Hurd

0%
15%
DeSantisTrump+43
Sep.19-24
514RV
Sep.19-24
514RV
Trump
55%
Trump
55%

Trump

55%

DeSantis

17%

Haley

7%

Scott

5%

Ramaswamy

4%

Pence

3%

Christie

2%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

1%
17%
DeSantisTrump+38
Sep.19-24
514RV
Sep.19-24
514RV
Trump
48%
Trump
48%

Trump

48%

DeSantis

15%

Haley

6%

Ramaswamy

4%

Scott

3%

Pence

1%

Christie

1%

Hutchinson

0%

Burgum

0%
15%
DeSantisTrump+33
Sep.19-21
2,476LV
Sep.19-21
2,476LV
Trump
60%
Trump
60%

Trump

60%

DeSantis

12%

Ramaswamy

10%

Pence

6%

Haley

5%

Christie

3%

Scott

2%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

0%

Hurd

0%
12%
DeSantisTrump+48
Sep.18-21
1,091LV
Sep.18-21
1,091LV
Trump
56%
Trump
56%

Trump

56%

DeSantis

14%

Ramaswamy

6%

Haley

4%

Pence

4%

Burgum

3%

Christie

3%

Scott

3%

Elder

1%

Johnson

1%

Hutchinson

0%

Binkley

0%

Hurd

0%
14%
DeSantisTrump+42
Sep.15-20
Sep.15-20
Trump
55%
Trump
55%

Trump

55%

DeSantis

16%

Haley

7%

Pence

5%

Scott

4%

Ramaswamy

3%

Christie

2%

Burgum

0%

Hutchinson

0%
16%
DeSantisTrump+39
Sep.15-20
474A
Sep.15-20
474A
Trump
54%
Trump
54%

Trump

54%

DeSantis

15%

Haley

7%

Pence

6%

Scott

4%

Christie

3%

Ramaswamy

3%

Burgum

0%

Hutchinson

0%
15%
DeSantisTrump+39
Sep.15-19
321RV
Sep.15-19
321RV
Trump
59%
Trump
59%

Trump

59%

DeSantis

16%

Haley

7%

Pence

4%

Christie

4%

Scott

3%

Ramaswamy

2%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

0%
16%
DeSantisTrump+43
Sep.13-19
1,089RV
Sep.13-19
1,089RV
Trump
56%
Trump
56%

Trump

56%

DeSantis

14%

Haley

5%

Ramaswamy

5%

Pence

3%

Christie

2%

Scott

2%

Hutchinson

1%

Stapleton

1%

Hurd

1%

Burgum

1%

Johnson

1%

Elder

1%

Binkley

0%

Suarez

0%
14%
DeSantisTrump+42
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

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