Who’s ahead in the national polls?
Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE
Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In June 2023, we debuted a new way of calculating our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.