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Who’s ahead in the national polls?

Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In June 2023, we debuted a new way of calculating our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Republican primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Sep.29-Oct.1
3,587LV
Sep.29-Oct.1
3,587LV
Trump
61%
Trump
61%

Trump

61%

DeSantis

13%

Haley

7%

Ramaswamy

7%

Pence

5%

Christie

3%

Scott

1%

Burgum

1%

Hutchinson

0%

Hurd

0%
13%
DeSantisTrump+48
Sep.29-30
850LV
Sep.29-30
850LV
Trump
50%
Trump
50%

Trump

50%

DeSantis

15%

Haley

14%

Christie

5%

Ramaswamy

3%

Scott

2%

Burgum

1%

Hutchinson

1%

Pence

1%

Binkley

0%

Elder

0%

Hurd

0%

Johnson

0%
15%
DeSantisTrump+35
Sep.28-29
770RV
Sep.28-29
770RV
DeSantis
31%
DeSantis
31%

DeSantis

31%

Ramaswamy

20%

Haley

13%

Pence

9%

Scott

3%

Christie

2%

Elder

1%

Burgum

1%

Johnson

1%

Hutchinson

1%

Hurd

0%

Binkley

0%

Stapleton

0%
20%
RamaswamyDeSantis+11
Sep.28-29
770RV
Sep.28-29
770RV
Trump
56%
Trump
56%

Trump

56%

DeSantis

11%

Ramaswamy

8%

Haley

7%

Pence

5%

Christie

1%

Scott

1%

Elder

1%

Burgum

1%

Hutchinson

0%

Hurd

0%

Johnson

0%

Binkley

0%

Stapleton

0%
11%
DeSantisTrump+45
Sep.28
1,183LV
Sep.28
1,183LV
Trump
63%
Trump
63%

Trump

63%

DeSantis

12%

Ramaswamy

7%

Pence

5%

Haley

5%

Christie

3%

Scott

2%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

1%

Hurd

0%
12%
DeSantisTrump+51
Sep.27-28
495RV
Sep.27-28
495RV
Trump
62%
Trump
62%

Trump

62%

DeSantis

10%

Ramaswamy

7%

Haley

6%

Scott

3%

Pence

3%

Burgum

1%

Cheney

1%

Christie

0%
10%
DeSantisTrump+52
Sep.25-28
402LV
Sep.25-28
402LV
Trump
71%
Trump
71%

Trump

71%

DeSantis

23%
23%
DeSantis  Trump+48
Sep.25-28
402LV
Sep.25-28
402LV
Trump
62%
Trump
62%

Trump

62%

DeSantis

11%

Ramaswamy

10%

Pence

5%

Haley

5%

Scott

1%

Christie

1%

Hurd

0%

Hutchinson

0%

Elder

0%

Burgum

0%
11%
DeSantisTrump+51
Sep.25-27
2,476LV
Sep.25-27
2,476LV
Trump
62%
Trump
62%

Trump

62%

DeSantis

13%

Ramaswamy

8%

Haley

6%

Pence

5%

Scott

2%

Christie

2%

Hutchinson

0%

Burgum

0%

Hurd

0%
13%
DeSantisTrump+49
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

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Candidate is an incumbent

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