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Who’s ahead in Texas?

Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

KEY

ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Republican primary, Texas, 2024

Nov. 20-22
458LV
Nov. 20-22
458LV
Trump
70%
Trump
70%

Trump

70%

Haley

20%
20%
Haley  Trump+50
Nov. 20-22
458LV
Nov. 20-22
458LV
Trump
63%
Trump
63%

Trump

63%

DeSantis

22%
22%
DeSantis  Trump+41
Nov. 20-22
458LV
Nov. 20-22
458LV
Trump
61%
Trump
61%

Trump

61%

DeSantis

11%

Haley

11%

Christie

3%

Ramaswamy

2%

Burgum

0%
11%
DeSantisTrump+50
Oct. 6-18
524LV
Oct. 6-18
524LV
Trump
66%
Trump
66%

Trump

66%

DeSantis

25%
25%
DeSantis  Trump+41
Oct. 6-18
524LV
Oct. 6-18
524LV
Trump
58%
Trump
58%

Trump

58%

DeSantis

14%

Haley

6%

Ramaswamy

3%

Pence

3%

Christie

2%

Scott

2%

Hutchinson

1%

Binkley

1%
14%
DeSantisTrump+44
Oct. 5-17
568RV
Oct. 5-17
568RV
Trump
62%
Trump
62%

Trump

62%

DeSantis

13%

Haley

7%

Pence

3%

Ramaswamy

3%

Hutchinson

1%

Christie

1%

Scott

1%

Hurd

1%

Burgum

0%
13%
DeSantisTrump+49
Oct. 5-9
418LV
Oct. 5-9
418LV
Trump
59%
Trump
59%

Trump

59%

DeSantis

24%
24%
DeSantis  Trump+35
Oct. 5-9
418LV
Oct. 5-9
418LV
Trump
58%
Trump
58%

Trump

58%

Haley

11%

DeSantis

9%

Ramaswamy

5%

Pence

2%

Christie

1%

Scott

1%

Burgum

0%
11%
HaleyTrump+47
Sept. 1-4
406LV
Sept. 1-4
406LV
Trump
62%
Trump
62%

Trump

62%

DeSantis

24%
24%
DeSantis  Trump+38
Sept. 1-4
406LV
Sept. 1-4
406LV
Trump
61%
Trump
61%

Trump

61%

DeSantis

10%

Haley

5%

Pence

5%

Ramaswamy

3%

Christie

2%

Hurd

2%

Scott

1%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

0%
10%
DeSantisTrump+51
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Candidate is an incumbent

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Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

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Campaign poll

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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