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Who’s ahead in the Virginia Senate ?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

U.S. Senate, Virginia, 2020, General election

Oct. 27-Nov. 1
283LV
Oct. 27-Nov. 1
283LV
Swayable
 Warner
61%
 Warner
61%

Warner

61%

Gade

39%
39%
Gade  Warner+21
Oct. 27-Nov. 1
690LV
Oct. 27-Nov. 1
690LV
Data for Progress
 Warner
57%
 Warner
57%

Warner

57%

Gade

42%
42%
Gade  Warner+15
Oct. 23-29
802LV
Oct. 23-29
802LV
Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research
 Warner
55%
 Warner
55%

Warner

55%

Gade

39%
39%
Gade  Warner+16
Oct. 15-27
908LV
Oct. 15-27
908LV
Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership
 Warner
57%
 Warner
57%

Warner

57%

Gade

37%
37%
Gade  Warner+20
Oct. 23-26
332LV
Oct. 23-26
332LV
Swayable
 Warner
60%
 Warner
60%

Warner

60%

Gade

40%
40%
Gade  Warner+19
Oct. 13-22
709LV
Oct. 13-22
709LV
Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs
 Warner
55%
 Warner
55%

Warner

55%

Gade

38%
38%
Gade  Warner+17
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Candidate is an incumbent

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Democratic-funded

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