UPDATED Aug. 9, 2022, at 3:43 PM

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Who’s ahead in the Missouri Senate race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

U.S. Senate, Missouri, 2022

787LV
Jul.24-27
787LV
Busch Valentine
31%
Busch Valentine
31%

Busch Valentine

31%

Greitens

31%

Wood

10%
31%
GreitensEven
787LV
Jul.24-27
787LV
Kunce
26%
Kunce
26%

Kunce

26%

Greitens

31%

Wood

13%
31%
GreitensGreitens+5
787LV
Jul.24-27
787LV
Busch Valentine
31%
Busch Valentine
31%

Busch Valentine

31%

Hartzler

32%

Wood

9%
32%
HartzlerHartzler+1
787LV
Jul.24-27
787LV
Kunce
25%
Kunce
25%

Kunce

25%

Hartzler

34%

Wood

12%
34%
HartzlerHartzler+9
787LV
Jul.24-27
787LV
Busch Valentine
30%
Busch Valentine
30%

Busch Valentine

30%

Schmitt

36%

Wood

9%
36%
SchmittSchmitt+6
787LV
Jul.24-27
787LV
Kunce
27%
Kunce
27%

Kunce

27%

Schmitt

37%

Wood

10%
37%
SchmittSchmitt+10
1,412LV
May 11-15
1,412LV
Kunce
36%
Kunce
36%

Kunce

36%

Greitens

42%
42%
Greitens  Greitens+6
1,412LV
May 11-15
1,412LV
Kunce
31%
Kunce
31%

Kunce

31%

Hartzler

45%
45%
Hartzler  Hartzler+14
1,412LV
May 11-15
1,412LV
Kunce
34%
Kunce
34%

Kunce

34%

Schmitt

46%
46%
Schmitt  Schmitt+12
1,412LV
May 11-15
1,412LV
Busch Valentine
37%
Busch Valentine
37%

Busch Valentine

37%

Greitens

43%
43%
Greitens  Greitens+6
1,412LV
May 11-15
1,412LV
Busch Valentine
33%
Busch Valentine
33%

Busch Valentine

33%

Hartzler

44%
44%
Hartzler  Hartzler+11
1,412LV
May 11-15
1,412LV
Busch Valentine
34%
Busch Valentine
34%

Busch Valentine

34%

Schmitt

47%
47%
Schmitt  Schmitt+13
986LV
Apr.27-28
986LV
Busch Valentine
33%
Busch Valentine
33%

Busch Valentine

33%

Hartzler

49%
49%
Hartzler  Hartzler+16
986LV
Apr.27-28
986LV
Busch Valentine
32%
Busch Valentine
32%

Busch Valentine

32%

Schmitt

50%
50%
Schmitt  Schmitt+18
986LV
Apr.27-28
986LV
Busch Valentine
37%
Busch Valentine
37%

Busch Valentine

37%

Greitens

46%
46%
Greitens  Greitens+9
1,075LV
Mar.9-13
1,075LV
Sifton
37%
Sifton
37%

Sifton

37%

Hartzler

57%
57%
Hartzler  Hartzler+20
1,075LV
Mar.9-13
1,075LV
Sifton
40%
Sifton
40%

Sifton

40%

Schmitt

54%
54%
Schmitt  Schmitt+15
1,075LV
Mar.9-13
1,075LV
Sifton
45%
Sifton
45%

Sifton

45%

Greitens

45%
45%
Greitens  Even
1,075LV
Mar.9-13
1,075LV
Kunce
39%
Kunce
39%

Kunce

39%

Hartzler

56%
56%
Hartzler  Hartzler+18
1,075LV
Mar.9-13
1,075LV
Kunce
40%
Kunce
40%

Kunce

40%

Schmitt

55%
55%
Schmitt  Schmitt+15
1,075LV
Mar.9-13
1,075LV
Kunce
45%
Kunce
45%

Kunce

45%

Greitens

46%
46%
Greitens  Greitens+1
1,210LV
Dec.16-17
1,210LV
Sifton
18%
Sifton
18%

Sifton

18%

Schmitt

23%
23%
Schmitt  Schmitt+5
1,210LV
Dec.16-17
1,210LV
Sifton
12%
Sifton
12%

Sifton

12%

Long

13%
13%
Long  Long+1
1,210LV
Dec.16-17
1,210LV
Sifton
17%
Sifton
17%

Sifton

17%

Hartzler

22%
22%
Hartzler  Hartzler+5
1,210LV
Dec.16-17
1,210LV
Sifton
26%
Sifton
26%

Sifton

26%

Greitens

39%
39%
Greitens  Greitens+13
1,210LV
Dec.16-17
1,210LV
Kunce
23%
Kunce
23%

Kunce

23%

Schmitt

28%
28%
Schmitt  Schmitt+5
1,210LV
Dec.16-17
1,210LV
Kunce
17%
Kunce
17%

Kunce

17%

Long

16%
16%
Long  Kunce+1
1,210LV
Dec.16-17
1,210LV
Kunce
16%
Kunce
16%

Kunce

16%

Hartzler

23%
23%
Hartzler  Hartzler+7
1,210LV
Dec.16-17
1,210LV
Kunce
26%
Kunce
26%

Kunce

26%

Greitens

34%
34%
Greitens  Greitens+8
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Candidate is an incumbent

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