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Who’s ahead in the Pennsylvania Senate ?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

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ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

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PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania, 2022, General election
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Nov. 5-7
800LV
Nov. 5-7
800LV
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group
 Fetterman
53%
 Fetterman
53%

Fetterman

53%

Oz

47%
47%
Oz  Fetterman+6
Nov. 4-6
450LV
Nov. 4-6
450LV
Research Co.
 Fetterman
49%
 Fetterman
49%

Fetterman

49%

Oz

48%
48%
Oz  Fetterman+1
Nov. 2-6
631LV
Nov. 2-6
631LV
Targoz Market Research
 Fetterman
46%
 Fetterman
46%

Fetterman

46%

Oz

51%

Gerhardt

2%
51%
 OzOz+5
Nov. 2-6
904RV
Nov. 2-6
904RV
Targoz Market Research
 Fetterman
47%
 Fetterman
47%

Fetterman

47%

Oz

41%

Gerhardt

3%
41%
 OzFetterman+6
Nov. 2-5
846RV
Nov. 2-5
846RV
Patriot Polling
 Fetterman
46%
 Fetterman
46%

Fetterman

46%

Oz

49%
49%
Oz  Oz+3
Nov. 3
750LV
Nov. 3
750LV
InsiderAdvantage
 Fetterman
46%
 Fetterman
46%

Fetterman

46%

Oz

48%

Gerhardt

2%
48%
 OzOz+2
Nov. 1-3
1,097LV
Nov. 1-3
1,097LV

Trafalgar Group is a partisan pollster for the Republican Party.

Trafalgar Group
 Fetterman
46%
 Fetterman
46%

Fetterman

46%

Oz

48%
48%
Oz  Oz+2
Nov. 1-2
1,180LV
Nov. 1-2
1,180LV
Remington Research Group
 Fetterman
44%
 Fetterman
44%

Fetterman

44%

Oz

47%

Gerhardt

2%

Weiss

1%
47%
 OzOz+3
Oct. 31-Nov. 2
1,152RV
Oct. 31-Nov. 2
1,152RV
Marist College
 Fetterman
50%
 Fetterman
50%

Fetterman

50%

Oz

44%
44%
Oz  Fetterman+6
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

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Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

Other party-funded

Campaign poll

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