Updated 4:52 PM EST | Feb 26, 2017

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for six leagues, updated after each match

Premier League
Upcoming
2/27
Leicester City
15%
21%
Liverpool
64%
See all
Completed
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate their performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
2/26
Tottenham4
67%22%
Stoke City0
11%
TOTSTK
Adjusted goals4.20.0
Shot-based xG1.60.8
Non-shot xG2.00.5
2/25
Watford1
41%27%
West Ham1
32%
WATWHU
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.91.8
Non-shot xG0.71.0
2/25
West Brom2
49%26%
Bournemouth1
25%
WBABOU
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.31.2
Non-shot xG0.92.0
2/25
Hull City1
36%29%
Burnley1
35%
HCYBRN
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.50.8
Non-shot xG1.30.9
2/25
Crystal Palace1
44%30%
Middlesbrough0
25%
CRYMID
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.91.0
Non-shot xG2.31.6
2/25
Everton2
67%21%
Sunderland0
12%
EVESUN
Adjusted goals1.90.0
Shot-based xG1.90.6
Non-shot xG1.71.0
2/25
Chelsea3
80%14%
Swansea City1
6%
CHESWA
Adjusted goals2.81.1
Shot-based xG1.30.3
Non-shot xG3.60.5
2/13
Bournemouth0
12%17%
Man. City2
71%
BOUMNC
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.22.8
Non-shot xG1.11.6
2/12
Swansea City2
46%26%
Leicester City0
27%
SWALEI
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG0.80.8
Non-shot xG0.91.1
2/12
Burnley1
13%22%
Chelsea1
65%
BRNCHE
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.90.9
Non-shot xG1.02.0
2/11
Liverpool2
43%26%
Tottenham0
31%
LIVTOT
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG2.80.8
Non-shot xG1.60.6
2/11
Stoke City1
54%26%
Crystal Palace0
21%
STKCRY
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.80.2
Non-shot xG1.20.5
See all
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsrelegatedrele-gatedqualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Chelsea63 pts
2.3
0.6
27.75.54.7+5189>99%83%
Man. City52 pts
2.5
0.8
24.56.57.0+3980<1%84%10%
Tottenham53 pts
2.1
0.7
22.210.85.0+4477<1%74%4%
Arsenal50 pts
2.5
1.0
22.37.77.9+3775<1%53%2%
Liverpool49 pts
2.4
0.9
21.99.76.4+3875<1%58%2%
Man. United48 pts
2.1
0.7
20.112.15.8+2772<1%31%<1%
Everton44 pts
1.8
1.0
16.610.910.5+1561<1%<1%<1%
West Brom40 pts
1.4
1.1
14.110.013.9-352<1%<1%<1%
West Ham33 pts
1.7
1.2
12.89.016.2-1247<1%<1%<1%
Southampton30 pts
1.6
1.0
12.39.416.3-546<1%<1%<1%
Stoke City32 pts
1.5
1.1
11.511.115.4-1546<1%<1%<1%
Burnley31 pts
1.5
1.2
12.57.218.3-1345<1%<1%<1%
Watford31 pts
1.4
1.2
11.39.916.8-19441%<1%<1%
Bournemouth26 pts
1.7
1.4
10.57.819.7-213910%<1%
Swansea City24 pts
1.6
1.4
10.76.021.2-293817%<1%
Leicester City21 pts
1.3
1.2
8.59.220.3-263538%<1%
Hull City21 pts
1.2
1.3
8.19.120.8-333352%<1%
Middlesbrough22 pts
1.1
1.1
6.713.118.1-173347%<1%
Crystal Palace22 pts
1.4
1.3
8.76.722.6-233354%<1%
Sunderland19 pts
1.2
1.4
7.56.823.6-342980%<1%
Forecast from

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