Get more FiveThirtyEight
- Terms of Use
- Privacy Policy
- Your California Privacy Rights
- Children's Online Privacy Policy
- Interest-Based Ads
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
Updated March 2, 2021, at 10:00 PM
3/2 |  Western Sydney | 33% | 24% |
 Melbourne City | 44% |
3/2 |  Perth Glory | 52% | 22% |
 C.C. Mariners | 25% |
3/3 |  W. Phoenix | 39% | 23% |
 Western United | 38% |
3/5 |  Adelaide United | 41% | 25% |
 Macarthur FC | 35% |
3/5 | Adelaide United | 40% | 25% |
 Newcastle Jets | 35% |
3/6 |  Brisbane Roar | 34% | 26% |
 Sydney FC | 39% |
3/6 |  Melbourne Vic | 31% | 24% |
Melbourne City | 45% |
3/7 | W. Phoenix | 38% | 24% |
Perth Glory | 38% |
3/7 | Western United | 51% | 22% |
Western Sydney | 27% |
3/8 | C.C. Mariners | 41% | 26% |
Newcastle Jets | 34% |
3/8 | C.C. Mariners | 41% | 25% |
Macarthur FC | 34% |
3/10 | Sydney FC | 47% | 23% |
Western United | 29% |
3/12 | Melbourne City | 54% | 24% |
Macarthur FC | 23% |
3/13 | Adelaide United | 44% | 24% |
Brisbane Roar | 32% |
3/13 | Sydney FC | 50% | 26% |
Newcastle Jets | 24% |
3/13 | Melbourne Vic | 45% | 23% |
Adelaide United | 32% |
3/14 | C.C. Mariners | 37% | 24% |
Perth Glory | 40% |
3/14 | Western United | 51% | 23% |
Brisbane Roar | 26% |
3/14 | Sydney FC | 50% | 26% |
Newcastle Jets | 24% |
3/15 | Western Sydney | 43% | 24% |
W. Phoenix | 32% |
3/17 | C.C. Mariners | 45% | 23% |
Adelaide United | 32% |
3/19 | Western Sydney | 38% | 24% |
Perth Glory | 39% |
3/20 | Macarthur FC | 40% | 24% |
Western United | 35% |
3/20 | Sydney FC | 55% | 23% |
Melbourne Vic | 22% |
3/21 | W. Phoenix | 45% | 25% |
Brisbane Roar | 29% |
3/21 | Newcastle Jets | 48% | 24% |
Adelaide United | 28% |
3/22 | Melbourne City | 57% | 22% |
C.C. Mariners | 21% |
3/24 | W. Phoenix | 46% | 24% |
Melbourne Vic | 30% |
3/24 | Perth Glory | 42% | 25% |
Sydney FC | 34% |
3/26 | Melbourne City | 57% | 22% |
Western Sydney | 22% |
3/27 | Brisbane Roar | 37% | 24% |
Western United | 38% |
3/27 | C.C. Mariners | 37% | 23% |
Western United | 40% |
3/27 | C.C. Mariners | 45% | 24% |
Melbourne Vic | 32% |
3/27 | Perth Glory | 48% | 24% |
Newcastle Jets | 27% |
3/28 | W. Phoenix | 42% | 26% |
Macarthur FC | 32% |
3/28 | Adelaide United | 34% | 24% |
Sydney FC | 42% |
3/29 | Newcastle Jets | 40% | 25% |
Perth Glory | 35% |
4/1 | Western United | 48% | 24% |
Macarthur FC | 28% |
4/2 | Adelaide United | 43% | 23% |
Western Sydney | 34% |
4/4 | Melbourne Vic | 44% | 24% |
C.C. Mariners | 32% |
4/7 | Macarthur FC | 48% | 24% |
Melbourne Vic | 28% |
4/10 | Melbourne City | 58% | 21% |
Adelaide United | 21% |
4/10 | Sydney FC | 53% | 23% |
Western Sydney | 23% |
4/11 | Brisbane Roar | 37% | 24% |
Western United | 38% |
4/11 | C.C. Mariners | 41% | 25% |
Macarthur FC | 34% |
4/14 | Adelaide United | 40% | 25% |
Newcastle Jets | 35% |
4/16 | Western Sydney | 45% | 25% |
Brisbane Roar | 30% |
4/17 | W. Phoenix | 39% | 23% |
Western United | 38% |
4/17 | Melbourne City | 58% | 22% |
Melbourne Vic | 21% |
4/18 | Macarthur FC | 43% | 27% |
Newcastle Jets | 30% |
4/18 | C.C. Mariners | 34% | 25% |
Sydney FC | 41% |
4/21 | Newcastle Jets | 48% | 25% |
Melbourne Vic | 28% |
4/23 | Western United | 52% | 22% |
C.C. Mariners | 26% |
4/24 | Perth Glory | 48% | 24% |
Newcastle Jets | 27% |
4/24 | Melbourne Vic | 43% | 24% |
Western Sydney | 33% |
4/25 | Brisbane Roar | 32% | 25% |
Melbourne City | 43% |
4/25 | W. Phoenix | 47% | 23% |
Adelaide United | 30% |
4/30 | Adelaide United | 43% | 23% |
Western Sydney | 34% |
5/1 | Macarthur FC | 40% | 25% |
Perth Glory | 35% |
5/2 | Western United | 53% | 22% |
Melbourne Vic | 26% |
5/5 | Adelaide United | 34% | 24% |
Sydney FC | 42% |
5/7 | Melbourne Vic | 31% | 24% |
Melbourne City | 45% |
5/8 | C.C. Mariners | 44% | 25% |
Brisbane Roar | 31% |
5/9 | Macarthur FC | 45% | 25% |
W. Phoenix | 29% |
5/9 | Perth Glory | 53% | 22% |
Adelaide United | 25% |
5/16 | Brisbane Roar | 43% | 25% |
Western Sydney | 32% |
5/16 | Melbourne Vic | 40% | 25% |
Macarthur FC | 34% |
5/16 | Perth Glory | 50% | 23% |
W. Phoenix | 27% |
5/22 | Sydney FC | 55% | 23% |
Melbourne Vic | 22% |
5/23 | C.C. Mariners | 32% | 24% |
Melbourne City | 44% |
5/23 | Perth Glory | 51% | 22% |
Western Sydney | 26% |
5/28 | Melbourne Vic | 45% | 23% |
Adelaide United | 32% |
5/29 | Newcastle Jets | 37% | 27% |
Sydney FC | 36% |
5/29 | Macarthur FC | 40% | 24% |
Western United | 35% |
5/30 | C.C. Mariners | 37% | 24% |
Perth Glory | 40% |
5/31 | Western Sydney | 43% | 24% |
W. Phoenix | 32% |
| 3/2 | Perth Glory1 | 55% | 22% |
C.C. Mariners2 | 23% |
| PER | CCM | |
| Adjusted goals | — | — |
| Shot-based xG | — | — |
| Non-shot xG | — | — |
| 3/2 | Western Sydney0 | 36% | 24% |
Melbourne City2 | 41% |
| WSFC | MBC | |
| Adjusted goals | — | — |
| Shot-based xG | — | — |
| Non-shot xG | — | — |
| 2/28 | Newcastle Jets0 | 50% | 25% |
W. Phoenix2 | 25% |
| NEW | WEL | |
| Adjusted goals | — | — |
| Shot-based xG | — | — |
| Non-shot xG | — | — |
| 2/28 | Sydney FC0 | 53% | 24% |
Macarthur FC1 | 23% |
| SYD | MFC | |
| Adjusted goals | — | — |
| Shot-based xG | — | — |
| Non-shot xG | — | — |
| 2/27 | Melbourne Vic3 | 38% | 24% |
Western United4 | 38% |
| MBV | WES | |
| Adjusted goals | — | — |
| Shot-based xG | — | — |
| Non-shot xG | — | — |
| 2/27 | Western Sydney2 | 50% | 23% |
Adelaide United3 | 27% |
| WSFC | ADE | |
| Adjusted goals | — | — |
| Shot-based xG | — | — |
| Non-shot xG | — | — |
| 2/26 | Perth Glory3 | 50% | 24% |
Brisbane Roar1 | 25% |
| PER | BRI | |
| Adjusted goals | — | — |
| Shot-based xG | — | — |
| Non-shot xG | — | — |
| 2/24 | Melbourne Vic2 | 42% | 24% |
W. Phoenix0 | 34% |
| MBV | WEL | |
| Adjusted goals | — | — |
| Shot-based xG | — | — |
| Non-shot xG | — | — |
| 2/23 | Melbourne City3 | 42% | 26% |
Sydney FC2 | 32% |
| MBC | SYD | |
| Adjusted goals | — | — |
| Shot-based xG | — | — |
| Non-shot xG | — | — |
| 2/21 | W. Phoenix2 | 43% | 25% |
Western Sydney2 | 32% |
| WEL | WSFC | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.9 | 2.6 |
| 2/21 | Melbourne Vic0 | 38% | 25% |
Newcastle Jets1 | 36% |
| MBV | NEW | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| 2/20 | Sydney FC0 | 54% | 25% |
Brisbane Roar0 | 22% |
| SYD | BRI | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.4 | 0.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 2/20 | Western United4 | 44% | 25% |
Macarthur FC1 | 31% |
| WES | MFC | |
| Adjusted goals | — | — |
| Shot-based xG | — | — |
| Non-shot xG | — | — |
| 2/19 | Adelaide United3 | 43% | 24% |
C.C. Mariners2 | 33% |
| ADE | CCM | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| 2/14 | Brisbane Roar0 | 41% | 26% |
Newcastle Jets0 | 33% |
| BRI | NEW | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2/14 | W. Phoenix0 | 52% | 23% |
C.C. Mariners2 | 25% |
| WEL | CCM | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.7 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.4 | 2.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| 2/12 | Macarthur FC4 | 44% | 25% |
Adelaide United0 | 30% |
| MFC | ADE | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.3 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 3.9 | 0.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| 2/10 | Western Sydney2 | 47% | 23% |
Melbourne Vic0 | 30% |
| WSFC | MBV | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 2/9 | Brisbane Roar0 | 45% | 26% |
Macarthur FC2 | 29% |
| BRI | MFC | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.6 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2/8 | Sydney FC2 | 53% | 24% |
W. Phoenix1 | 23% |
| SYD | WEL | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 2/7 | C.C. Mariners3 | 35% | 25% |
Western United2 | 40% |
| CCM | WES | |
| Adjusted goals | 3.2 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 2/7 | Newcastle Jets1 | 38% | 25% |
Melbourne City0 | 37% |
| NEW | MBC | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| 2/6 | Macarthur FC2 | 45% | 26% |
Western Sydney2 | 30% |
| MFC | WSFC | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.9 | 2.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| 2/6 | Brisbane Roar5 | 43% | 26% |
Melbourne Vic2 | 31% |
| BRI | MBV | |
| Adjusted goals | 5.3 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.9 | 2.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 2/5 | Adelaide United1 | 39% | 24% |
Perth Glory2 | 38% |
| ADE | PER | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| 2/3 | C.C. Mariners3 | 27% | 25% |
Melbourne City2 | 48% |
| CCM | MBC | |
| Adjusted goals | — | — |
| Shot-based xG | — | — |
| Non-shot xG | — | — |
| 1/31 | Melbourne City1 | 52% | 23% |
Perth Glory3 | 24% |
| MBC | PER | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.8 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 1/31 | C.C. Mariners1 | 33% | 25% |
W. Phoenix2 | 42% |
| CCM | WEL | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1/30 | Brisbane Roar3 | 41% | 26% |
Adelaide United1 | 34% |
| BRI | ADE | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 1/30 | Macarthur FC0 | 38% | 27% |
Sydney FC3 | 35% |
| MFC | SYD | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.9 | 3.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.8 | 2.3 |
| 1/30 | Western United0 | 49% | 23% |
Melbourne Vic0 | 27% |
| WES | MBV | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| 1/29 | Western Sydney1 | 43% | 25% |
Newcastle Jets1 | 32% |
| WSFC | NEW | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.9 | 2.5 |
| 1/26 | Melbourne Vic2 | 38% | 24% |
Perth Glory1 | 38% |
| MBV | PER | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 1/24 | W. Phoenix1 | 45% | 25% |
Newcastle Jets2 | 30% |
| WEL | NEW | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1/23 | Adelaide United1 | 47% | 23% |
Melbourne Vic0 | 30% |
| ADE | MBV | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| 1/23 | Western United5 | 43% | 25% |
Perth Glory4 | 33% |
| WES | PER | |
| Adjusted goals | 5.3 | 4.2 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 1/22 | Sydney FC0 | 64% | 22% |
C.C. Mariners2 | 15% |
| SYD | CCM | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 1/20 | Perth Glory5 | 47% | 25% |
Adelaide United3 | 28% |
| PER | ADE | |
| Adjusted goals | 4.9 | 3.2 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| 1/20 | Newcastle Jets1 | 46% | 26% |
Brisbane Roar2 | 28% |
| NEW | BRI | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.7 | 0.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| 1/19 | C.C. Mariners0 | 34% | 25% |
Western Sydney1 | 41% |
| CCM | WSFC | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 1/17 | Newcastle Jets1 | 41% | 27% |
Macarthur FC2 | 32% |
| NEW | MFC | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1/16 | Melbourne City2 | 51% | 24% |
Western United1 | 24% |
| MBC | WES | |
| Adjusted goals | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 1/16 | Sydney FC1 | 54% | 24% |
Western Sydney1 | 22% |
| SYD | WSFC | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 1/9 | Macarthur FC1 | 45% | 26% |
W. Phoenix1 | 29% |
| MFC | WEL | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1/8 | Newcastle Jets1 | 46% | 25% |
Western Sydney2 | 29% |
| NEW | WSFC | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| 1/3 | Adelaide United2 | 32% | 25% |
Melbourne City0 | 43% |
| ADE | MBC | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1/3 | Macarthur FC0 | 60% | 23% |
C.C. Mariners2 | 17% |
| MFC | CCM | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.6 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1/2 | Melbourne Vic1 | 48% | 25% |
Brisbane Roar3 | 27% |
| MBV | BRI | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.9 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.5 | 1.8 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 1/2 | W. Phoenix1 | 37% | 26% |
Sydney FC2 | 37% |
| WEL | SYD | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 12/31 | C.C. Mariners1 | 29% | 25% |
Newcastle Jets0 | 46% |
| CCM | NEW | |
| Adjusted goals | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Non-shot xG | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| 12/30 | Western Sydney0 | 41% | 26% |
Macarthur FC1 | 33% |
| WSFC | MFC | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| 12/29 | Brisbane Roar0 | 28% | 26% |
Melbourne City1 | 47% |
| BRI | MBC | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Shot-based xG | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Non-shot xG | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 12/28 | Western United0 | 50% | 23% |
Adelaide United0 | 27% |
| WES | ADE | |
| Adjusted goals | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shot-based xG | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Non-shot xG | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Team rating | avg. simulated season | end-of-season probabilities | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| team | spi | off. | def. | goal diff. | proj. pts.pts. | Every position | make playoffs | make semis | make final | win final | ||||||
Melbourne City12 pts | 36.0 | 1.2 | 1.7 | +8 | 46 | 77% | 58% | 34% | 19% | |||||||
Perth Glory12 pts | 31.6 | 1.2 | 1.9 | +9 | 47 | 78% | 59% | 32% | 16% | |||||||
Western United11 pts | 31.7 | 1.3 | 2.0 | +6 | 43 | 67% | 47% | 25% | 13% | |||||||
Sydney FC11 pts | 32.7 | 1.1 | 1.7 | +6 | 41 | 58% | 40% | 21% | 11% | |||||||
C.C. Mariners21 pts | 24.8 | 1.0 | 2.0 | +4 | 47 | 79% | 53% | 23% | 10% | |||||||
Macarthur FC17 pts | 26.6 | 0.9 | 1.8 | +0 | 41 | 58% | 36% | 16% | 8% | |||||||
Western Sydney13 pts | 25.6 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -3 | 39 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 6% | |||||||
Adelaide United13 pts | 24.9 | 1.0 | 2.1 | -8 | 38 | 42% | 24% | 10% | 5% | |||||||
Brisbane Roar14 pts | 24.1 | 0.9 | 1.9 | +0 | 37 | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | |||||||
Newcastle Jets11 pts | 26.6 | 0.9 | 1.8 | -5 | 36 | 30% | 19% | 9% | 4% | |||||||
Melbourne Vic7 pts | 24.6 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -12 | 31 | 17% | 10% | 5% | 2% | |||||||
W. Phoenix8 pts | 26.0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | -6 | 30 | 12% | 7% | 3% | 2% | |||||||
The top two teams from each group qualify for the knockout phase. The third-place team from each group qualifies for the UEFA Europa League knockout phase. The third-place finisher from each group in the UEFA Champions League — eight teams total — will join the UEFA Europa League in the round of 32.The top seven teams from each conference — 14 teams total — make the MLS playoffs. The top team from each conference receives a first-round bye.The top two teams from each group make the USL playoffs.The top twelve teams at the end of the regular season make the Liga MX playoffs, with four teams receiving a first-round bye.The top four teams at the end of the regular season make the NWSL playoffs.The top six teams make the A-League playoffs, with two teams receiving a first-round bye.Three teams are promoted, and four teams are relegated. Depending on the league standings, playoffs for the final promotion and relegation spots may be necessary.Four teams — based on overall performance during the last four seasons — are relegated.The bottom team is automatically relegated, and the second-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom team is automatically relegated, and the second-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom two teams are automatically relegated, and the third-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom two teams are automatically relegated, and the third-to-last team will enter a playoff against teams from the lower division to determine if they are relegated.Two teams are relegated through a playoff.The top two teams from each group and four third-place teams make the round of 16.
Design and development by Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Julia Wolfe. Statistical models by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
Comments