Updated Feb. 19, 2019, at 4:58 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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2. Bundesliga

2018-19 season

Germany, tier 2

Updated Feb. 17, 2019, at 9:26 a.m.

Upcoming matches
2/22
Union Berlin
54%
25%
Arminia
20%
2/22
Greuther Fürth
31%
28%
Heidenheim
41%
2/23
1. FC Köln
66%
22%
SV Sandhausen
12%
2/23
VfL Bochum
36%
26%
Holstein Kiel
38%
2/23
FC St. Pauli
38%
28%
Ingolstadt
34%
2/23
Darmstadt 98
43%
29%
Dynamo Dresden
29%
2/24
Erzgebirge Aue
44%
28%
MSV Duisburg
28%
2/24
Regensburg
27%
26%
Hamburger SV
47%
2/24
1. FC Magdeburg
35%
27%
SC Paderborn
39%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
2/17
Dynamo Dresden0
41%26%
Regensburg0
33%
DRESJAHN
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.11.3
Non-shot xG1.12.0
2/17
Holstein Kiel2
62%22%
Greuther Fürth2
16%
HOLFUR
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.91.3
Non-shot xG1.81.2
2/17
Arminia1
47%27%
1. FC Magdeburg3
26%
DSCMAG
Adjusted goals1.12.2
Shot-based xG1.32.2
Non-shot xG1.01.1
2/16
Ingolstadt2
45%27%
VfL Bochum1
27%
INGBOC
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.11.3
Non-shot xG1.01.8
2/16
Heidenheim2
27%28%
Hamburger SV2
45%
FCHHSV
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.22.3
Non-shot xG0.71.2
2/16
FC St. Pauli1
51%27%
Erzgebirge Aue2
22%
STPERZ
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.91.3
Non-shot xG1.20.9
2/16
MSV Duisburg2
23%26%
Union Berlin3
51%
DUIFCU
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.02.4
Non-shot xG1.22.1
2/15
SV Sandhausen1
44%30%
Darmstadt 981
26%
SVSDRM
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.61.2
Non-shot xG1.61.0
2/15
SC Paderborn3
26%23%
1. FC Köln2
51%
PADCOL
Adjusted goals2.92.0
Shot-based xG1.31.5
Non-shot xG1.31.5
2/11
Hamburger SV1
60%25%
Dynamo Dresden0
15%
HSVDRES
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.61.5
Non-shot xG1.91.2
2/10
1. FC Magdeburg1
32%26%
Holstein Kiel1
42%
MAGHOL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.71.2
Non-shot xG1.62.0
2/10
Darmstadt 981
41%28%
Heidenheim2
30%
DRMFCH
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.42.4
Non-shot xG1.11.3
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.promotedprom.win 2. Bundesligawin league
1. FC Köln39 pts
51.7
1.7
1.4
19.46.08.6+3764<1%77%43%
Hamburger SV44 pts
43.8
1.2
1.3
18.88.17.1+1264<1%72%38%
Union Berlin40 pts
42.6
1.3
1.4
15.413.25.4+2159<1%39%11%
SC Paderborn37 pts
39.4
1.4
1.7
15.010.18.9+2055<1%15%3%
Heidenheim38 pts
33.0
1.1
1.6
14.311.38.4+954<1%10%2%
Holstein Kiel36 pts
39.3
1.4
1.7
14.012.07.9+1454<1%11%2%
FC St. Pauli37 pts
32.8
1.1
1.7
15.27.211.6+353<1%6%1%
Regensburg30 pts
35.4
1.2
1.7
11.612.110.3+147<1%<1%<1%
VfL Bochum30 pts
35.0
1.2
1.6
12.59.212.3+147<1%<1%<1%
Arminia27 pts
36.8
1.2
1.6
11.79.213.2-1442%<1%<1%
Dynamo Dresden26 pts
31.7
1.0
1.6
10.98.414.7-9417%<1%<1%
Greuther Fürth28 pts
24.4
0.8
1.8
10.110.213.7-22417%<1%<1%
Erzgebirge Aue25 pts
26.4
0.8
1.7
10.67.515.9-63910%<1%<1%
Darmstadt 9823 pts
31.0
1.0
1.6
9.88.315.9-143818%<1%<1%
1. FC Magdeburg21 pts
31.2
1.0
1.6
7.912.313.7-133627%<1%<1%
Ingolstadt19 pts
33.8
1.0
1.6
8.010.315.7-153439%<1%<1%
SV Sandhausen17 pts
30.3
0.9
1.5
6.811.515.7-113256%<1%<1%
MSV Duisburg16 pts
24.2
0.9
2.0
7.07.020.0-262884%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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