Updated March 23, 2020, at 6:26 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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2. Bundesliga

2019-20 season

Germany, tier 2

Updated March 9, 2020, at 5:22 p.m.

Upcoming matches
April 14-20
4/19
VfB Stuttgart
63%
21%
VfL Osnabrück
15%
4/19
Arminia
53%
27%
Nürnberg
20%
4/19
VfL Bochum
38%
27%
FC St. Pauli
35%
4/19
Hannover 96
46%
28%
Heidenheim
26%
4/19
Erzgebirge Aue
43%
28%
Karlsruher SC
29%
4/19
Wehen
42%
29%
Dynamo Dresden
29%
4/19
Greuther Fürth
39%
27%
SV Sandhausen
35%
4/19
Hamburger SV
54%
24%
Holstein Kiel
22%
4/19
Regensburg
42%
27%
Darmstadt 98
30%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
March 3-9
3/9
VfB Stuttgart1
49%27%
Arminia1
24%
STUDSC
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.11.4
Non-shot xG0.60.9
3/8
Dynamo Dresden2
40%31%
Erzgebirge Aue1
29%
DRESERZ
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.31.1
Non-shot xG1.81.4
3/8
SV Sandhausen2
44%27%
FC St. Pauli2
29%
SVSSTP
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.20.6
Non-shot xG3.20.9
3/8
Holstein Kiel1
46%25%
Greuther Fürth1
29%
HOLFUR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.70.6
Non-shot xG1.01.4
3/7
Hamburger SV2
65%21%
Regensburg1
15%
HSVJAHN
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.91.4
Non-shot xG1.32.4
3/7
Heidenheim3
44%28%
Karlsruher SC1
28%
FCHKAR
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG3.01.4
Non-shot xG1.91.7
3/7
Darmstadt 980
42%27%
VfL Bochum0
30%
DRMBOC
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.70.4
Non-shot xG1.41.1
3/6
VfL Osnabrück2
45%28%
Wehen6
26%
OSNWEH
Adjusted goals2.15.8
Shot-based xG3.43.1
Non-shot xG2.21.1
3/6
Nürnberg0
38%28%
Hannover 963
34%
NURHAN
Adjusted goals0.02.6
Shot-based xG0.51.3
Non-shot xG1.50.5
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.promotedprom.win 2. Bundesligawin league
Arminia51 pts
43.6
1.2
1.3
+306693%70%
VfB Stuttgart45 pts
49.9
1.5
1.3
+206270%16%
Hamburger SV44 pts
47.1
1.4
1.4
+256056%13%
Heidenheim41 pts
34.7
1.1
1.5
+853<1%7%<1%
Greuther Fürth36 pts
33.2
1.1
1.7
+448<1%<1%<1%
Darmstadt 9836 pts
32.2
1.0
1.6
-147<1%<1%<1%
Holstein Kiel34 pts
36.7
1.3
1.7
+147<1%<1%<1%
Hannover 9632 pts
39.1
1.2
1.5
+046<1%<1%<1%
Erzgebirge Aue34 pts
28.5
0.9
1.7
-2451%<1%<1%
Regensburg32 pts
33.4
1.2
1.8
-5452%<1%<1%
FC St. Pauli30 pts
32.7
1.0
1.6
+1425%<1%<1%
SV Sandhausen29 pts
36.4
1.2
1.7
-3418%<1%<1%
Nürnberg29 pts
33.0
1.1
1.6
-124112%<1%<1%
VfL Bochum28 pts
29.2
1.1
1.8
-73918%<1%<1%
VfL Osnabrück29 pts
30.1
1.1
1.8
-73917%<1%<1%
Wehen25 pts
27.6
1.0
1.8
-163555%<1%<1%
Karlsruher SC24 pts
27.9
1.0
1.9
-163459%<1%<1%
Dynamo Dresden24 pts
26.5
0.9
1.7
-203371%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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