Updated April 22, 2019, at 5:15 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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2. Bundesliga

2018-19 season

Germany, tier 2

Updated April 21, 2019, at 9:31 a.m.

Upcoming matches
April
4/26
1. FC Köln
63%
22%
Darmstadt 98
15%
4/26
Ingolstadt
50%
27%
Dynamo Dresden
22%
4/27
FC St. Pauli
34%
26%
Regensburg
40%
4/27
SV Sandhausen
38%
27%
Holstein Kiel
36%
4/27
1. FC Magdeburg
52%
29%
Greuther Fürth
19%
4/28
Union Berlin
40%
29%
Hamburger SV
31%
4/28
Erzgebirge Aue
35%
29%
VfL Bochum
36%
4/28
SC Paderborn
51%
26%
Heidenheim
23%
4/29
MSV Duisburg
31%
26%
Arminia
42%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
April
4/21
Regensburg1
40%28%
1. FC Magdeburg0
32%
JAHNMAG
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG3.01.3
Non-shot xG1.82.2
4/21
Dynamo Dresden3
20%24%
1. FC Köln0
56%
DRESCOL
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG2.00.6
Non-shot xG0.91.9
4/21
Heidenheim3
44%29%
FC St. Pauli0
27%
FCHSTP
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG1.80.2
Non-shot xG2.00.5
4/21
Darmstadt 980
41%28%
VfL Bochum0
31%
DRMBOC
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.91.4
Non-shot xG1.60.9
4/21
Arminia1
43%28%
Ingolstadt3
30%
DSCING
Adjusted goals1.13.2
Shot-based xG1.62.9
Non-shot xG1.41.0
4/20
Hamburger SV1
67%23%
Erzgebirge Aue1
10%
HSVERZ
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.40.3
Non-shot xG2.60.1
4/20
Holstein Kiel1
42%24%
SC Paderborn2
34%
HOLPAD
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.61.8
Non-shot xG1.31.3
4/20
Greuther Fürth1
19%26%
Union Berlin1
54%
FURFCU
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.62.4
Non-shot xG1.40.9
4/20
MSV Duisburg2
31%28%
SV Sandhausen2
41%
DUISVS
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.41.5
Non-shot xG1.71.1
4/15
1. FC Köln1
50%26%
Hamburger SV1
24%
COLHSV
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.21.3
Non-shot xG1.31.4
4/14
Ingolstadt1
37%26%
Holstein Kiel1
38%
INGHOL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.41.1
Non-shot xG1.71.5
4/14
FC St. Pauli1
37%28%
Arminia1
35%
STPDSC
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.41.8
Non-shot xG1.01.6
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.promotedprom.win 2. Bundesligawin league
1. FC Köln59 pts
51.6
1.7
1.4
20.35.97.8+4067—>99%98%
Hamburger SV53 pts
43.3
1.2
1.3
16.89.18.1+1059—61%2%
SC Paderborn51 pts
39.3
1.4
1.7
15.610.18.3+2657—35%<1%
Union Berlin50 pts
42.2
1.3
1.4
13.715.15.2+1856—24%<1%
Heidenheim49 pts
33.6
1.0
1.5
14.511.18.4+1055—7%<1%
Holstein Kiel46 pts
38.7
1.4
1.7
13.811.09.2+1152—2%—
Regensburg45 pts
36.4
1.3
1.8
12.613.08.5+251—<1%—
FC St. Pauli45 pts
28.6
0.9
1.7
14.37.112.6-750—<1%—
Arminia39 pts
35.6
1.2
1.6
11.510.112.4-445<1%<1%—
VfL Bochum39 pts
32.7
1.1
1.7
11.410.112.4-244<1%<1%—
Greuther Fürth38 pts
26.5
0.8
1.7
10.112.111.8-1742<1%——
Darmstadt 9837 pts
33.0
1.0
1.6
11.28.114.7-942<1%——
Dynamo Dresden36 pts
31.0
1.0
1.6
10.210.113.7-741<1%——
Erzgebirge Aue33 pts
25.8
0.8
1.7
10.27.116.7-7383%——
SV Sandhausen31 pts
32.1
1.0
1.6
8.311.114.6-63610%——
1. FC Magdeburg27 pts
31.1
0.9
1.5
6.313.114.6-153267%——
Ingolstadt26 pts
35.0
1.1
1.6
7.59.117.4-173273%——
MSV Duisburg24 pts
25.0
1.0
2.0
6.010.018.0-272897%——
Forecast from
Season

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