Updated April 12, 2021, at 2:57 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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2. Bundesliga

2020-21

Germany, tier 2

Updated April 11, 2021, at 9:24 a.m.

Upcoming matches
April 13-19
4/14
VfL Osnabrück
34%
30%
Regensburg
37%
4/16
Darmstadt 98
26%
26%
Greuther Fürth
49%
4/16
Braunschweig
32%
30%
SC Paderborn
38%
4/17
FC St. Pauli
53%
25%
Kickers
22%
4/18
VfL Bochum
50%
27%
Hannover 96
23%
4/18
VfL Osnabrück
26%
28%
Fortuna
46%
4/18
Regensburg
35%
30%
Heidenheim
35%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
April 6-12
4/11
Kickers1
32%29%
Nürnberg1
39%
FWKNUR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.51.7
Non-shot xG1.21.2
4/11
VfL Osnabrück0
38%32%
Braunschweig4
30%
OSNEBS
Adjusted goals0.04.2
Shot-based xG0.61.6
Non-shot xG0.80.8
4/11
Hannover 961
44%29%
Heidenheim3
27%
HANFCH
Adjusted goals1.12.9
Shot-based xG0.71.2
Non-shot xG0.90.8
4/10
SC Paderborn3
27%28%
VfL Bochum0
45%
PADBOC
Adjusted goals3.10.0
Shot-based xG2.41.7
Non-shot xG1.32.7
4/10
Erzgebirge Aue1
32%27%
FC St. Pauli3
40%
ERZSTP
Adjusted goals1.13.2
Shot-based xG1.02.3
Non-shot xG0.92.2
4/9
Hamburger SV1
63%21%
Darmstadt 982
15%
HSVDRM
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG2.32.3
Non-shot xG2.11.2
4/8
Hannover 961
58%25%
Kickers2
17%
HANFWK
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.51.3
Non-shot xG1.70.5
4/6
Heidenheim1
26%28%
Holstein Kiel0
45%
FCHHOL
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.20.7
Non-shot xG1.01.7
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.promotedprom.win 2. Bundesligawin league
VfL Bochum54 pts
40.9
1.3
1.5
+2264—74%43%
Greuther Fürth50 pts
43.0
1.3
1.4
+2262—54%24%
Hamburger SV50 pts
47.5
1.5
1.4
+2762—60%23%
Holstein Kiel46 pts
40.5
1.2
1.4
+1859—29%10%
Fortuna43 pts
40.3
1.2
1.4
+454<1%3%<1%
Heidenheim45 pts
36.3
1.1
1.5
+654<1%1%<1%
Karlsruher SC42 pts
35.9
1.1
1.6
+551<1%<1%<1%
FC St. Pauli41 pts
37.6
1.3
1.7
+049<1%<1%<1%
SC Paderborn38 pts
38.5
1.2
1.5
+647<1%<1%<1%
Hannover 9636 pts
39.0
1.2
1.5
+546<1%<1%<1%
Erzgebirge Aue37 pts
25.4
0.9
1.8
-544<1%<1%<1%
Darmstadt 9835 pts
35.8
1.3
1.7
-343<1%<1%—
Regensburg31 pts
31.7
1.0
1.6
-7405%<1%<1%
Nürnberg33 pts
32.4
1.0
1.6
-8402%<1%—
Braunschweig29 pts
26.2
0.8
1.6
-213628%——
VfL Osnabrück26 pts
22.8
0.8
1.8
-223357%——
SV Sandhausen25 pts
30.9
1.0
1.7
-213263%——
Kickers20 pts
24.9
0.9
1.8
-272796%——
Forecast from
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