Updated Aug. 19, 2019, at 12:20 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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2. Bundesliga

2019-20 season

Germany, tier 2

Updated Aug. 18, 2019, at 9:27 a.m.

Upcoming matches
August 13-19
8/19
VfL Osnabrück
40%
29%
Darmstadt 98
31%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
August 13-19
8/18
Dynamo Dresden2
38%28%
Heidenheim1
34%
DRESFCH
Adjusted goals1.81.1
Shot-based xG2.11.6
Non-shot xG1.70.6
8/18
Holstein Kiel2
49%26%
Karlsruher SC1
26%
HOLKAR
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.90.8
Non-shot xG2.21.6
8/18
Greuther Fürth1
36%27%
Regensburg0
38%
FURJAHN
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.10.1
Non-shot xG1.80.8
8/17
Wehen0
26%27%
Hannover 963
48%
WEHHAN
Adjusted goals0.03.0
Shot-based xG0.82.1
Non-shot xG0.71.5
8/17
Arminia3
51%27%
Erzgebirge Aue1
22%
DSCERZ
Adjusted goals2.81.1
Shot-based xG2.00.8
Non-shot xG1.51.0
8/17
VfB Stuttgart2
70%19%
FC St. Pauli1
11%
STUSTP
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.31.2
Non-shot xG1.61.8
8/16
Hamburger SV1
61%23%
VfL Bochum0
16%
HSVBOC
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.40.2
Non-shot xG1.20.4
8/16
SV Sandhausen3
34%28%
Nürnberg2
37%
SVSNUR
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG0.81.2
Non-shot xG1.61.1
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.promotedprom.win 2. Bundesligawin league
VfB Stuttgart7 pts
51.4
1.6
1.4
+2865<1%62%37%
Hamburger SV7 pts
47.5
1.3
1.2
+2462<1%48%24%
Hannover 964 pts
46.3
1.4
1.4
+20581%36%15%
Nürnberg3 pts
37.3
1.2
1.6
+1487%11%3%
Arminia5 pts
36.2
1.2
1.6
+4487%11%3%
Holstein Kiel4 pts
37.3
1.3
1.7
+2488%11%3%
Heidenheim4 pts
34.3
1.2
1.7
+14710%8%2%
Regensburg4 pts
33.9
1.2
1.8
+04611%8%2%
Darmstadt 984 pts
31.3
1.0
1.6
-24512%7%2%
SV Sandhausen4 pts
31.6
1.0
1.7
-54315%5%1%
Karlsruher SC6 pts
29.6
1.0
1.7
-64315%5%1%
Dynamo Dresden3 pts
31.8
1.0
1.6
-64317%4%<1%
Greuther Fürth6 pts
28.9
0.9
1.7
-84217%4%1%
VfL Osnabrück3 pts
29.4
0.9
1.7
-94220%4%<1%
VfL Bochum1 pt
32.1
1.1
1.7
-64120%4%<1%
Erzgebirge Aue6 pts
26.4
0.9
1.8
-124024%3%<1%
FC St. Pauli1 pt
29.2
1.0
1.8
-103927%2%<1%
Wehen0 pts
27.8
0.9
1.7
-153638%1%<1%
Forecast from
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