Updated Jan. 22, 2020, at 5:09 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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2. Bundesliga

2019-20 season

Germany, tier 2

Updated Dec. 22, 2019, at 9:25 a.m.

Upcoming matches
January 28 - February 3
1/28
Arminia
56%
24%
VfL Bochum
20%
1/28
Wehen
42%
28%
Erzgebirge Aue
30%
1/28
Greuther Fürth
39%
29%
FC St. Pauli
32%
1/28
Regensburg
38%
26%
Hannover 96
36%
1/29
VfB Stuttgart
59%
24%
Heidenheim
18%
1/29
Holstein Kiel
48%
26%
Darmstadt 98
26%
1/29
VfL Osnabrück
39%
28%
SV Sandhausen
33%
1/29
Dynamo Dresden
37%
28%
Karlsruher SC
35%
1/30
Hamburger SV
60%
24%
Nürnberg
17%
1/31
Erzgebirge Aue
29%
28%
Arminia
43%
1/31
Regensburg
47%
26%
Greuther Fürth
28%
2/1
Karlsruher SC
34%
25%
Holstein Kiel
41%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
December 17-23
12/22
Heidenheim3
42%29%
VfL Osnabrück1
29%
FCHOSN
Adjusted goals2.61.1
Shot-based xG1.20.5
Non-shot xG1.81.1
12/22
SV Sandhausen2
41%26%
Holstein Kiel2
33%
SVSHOL
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG0.92.7
Non-shot xG1.91.1
12/22
VfL Bochum2
40%25%
Regensburg3
34%
BOCJAHN
Adjusted goals1.93.2
Shot-based xG1.61.7
Non-shot xG1.71.5
12/21
Darmstadt 982
21%26%
Hamburger SV2
53%
DRMHSV
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.52.2
Non-shot xG1.21.2
12/21
FC St. Pauli3
27%29%
Arminia0
44%
STPDSC
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG1.31.5
Non-shot xG0.91.7
12/21
Erzgebirge Aue3
35%29%
Greuther Fürth1
36%
ERZFUR
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG2.31.1
Non-shot xG1.20.8
12/21
Hannover 962
27%26%
VfB Stuttgart2
48%
HANSTU
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.31.3
Non-shot xG2.21.4
12/20
Nürnberg2
51%27%
Dynamo Dresden0
22%
NURDRES
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.10.4
Non-shot xG1.21.2
12/20
Karlsruher SC0
47%26%
Wehen1
27%
KARWEH
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.81.0
Non-shot xG1.80.7
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.promotedprom.win 2. Bundesligawin league
VfB Stuttgart31 pts
50.2
1.6
1.4
+1861<1%65%34%
Hamburger SV31 pts
48.2
1.5
1.4
+2860<1%63%32%
Arminia34 pts
40.2
1.2
1.4
+1959<1%53%24%
Heidenheim30 pts
35.5
1.1
1.5
+952<1%15%4%
Regensburg26 pts
35.1
1.3
1.8
+4482%6%1%
VfL Osnabrück26 pts
33.0
1.0
1.6
+5472%5%<1%
Erzgebirge Aue29 pts
27.9
1.0
1.8
-3472%4%<1%
Holstein Kiel23 pts
38.0
1.3
1.7
+2473%5%<1%
SV Sandhausen24 pts
35.6
1.2
1.6
+1464%4%<1%
Hannover 9621 pts
39.9
1.3
1.5
-3465%3%<1%
Greuther Fürth25 pts
30.5
1.0
1.7
-2456%2%<1%
FC St. Pauli21 pts
32.0
1.0
1.6
-14213%<1%<1%
Darmstadt 9821 pts
30.6
0.9
1.6
-74114%<1%<1%
Nürnberg19 pts
35.1
1.1
1.6
-94018%<1%<1%
VfL Bochum20 pts
31.2
1.1
1.8
-64021%<1%<1%
Karlsruher SC20 pts
29.5
1.1
1.9
-123926%<1%<1%
Wehen17 pts
25.2
0.9
1.8
-213457%<1%<1%
Dynamo Dresden13 pts
25.4
0.8
1.8
-243077%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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