Updated Aug. 17, 2018 at 7:56 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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2. Bundesliga

2018-19 season

Germany, tier 2

Updated Aug. 13, 2018, at 4:26 p.m.

Upcoming matches
8/24
VfL Bochum
44%
30%
SV Sandhausen
27%
8/24
Darmstadt 98
39%
28%
MSV Duisburg
32%
8/25
1. FC Köln
72%
20%
Erzgebirge Aue
8%
8/25
Greuther Fürth
39%
30%
SC Paderborn
31%
8/25
1. FC Magdeburg
32%
29%
Ingolstadt
39%
8/26
Union Berlin
47%
29%
FC St. Pauli
25%
8/26
Dynamo Dresden
46%
28%
Heidenheim
26%
8/26
Regensburg
32%
27%
Holstein Kiel
41%
8/27
Hamburger SV
54%
25%
Arminia
21%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
8/13
1. FC Köln1
63%22%
Union Berlin1
15%
COLFCU
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.11.1
Non-shot xG1.21.0
8/12
Holstein Kiel1
56%25%
Heidenheim1
19%
HOLFCH
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.11.0
Non-shot xG0.71.3
8/12
Erzgebirge Aue0
38%30%
1. FC Magdeburg0
32%
ERZMAG
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.30.4
Non-shot xG1.01.0
8/12
SV Sandhausen0
25%27%
Hamburger SV3
48%
SVSHSV
Adjusted goals0.03.2
Shot-based xG0.60.5
Non-shot xG1.10.4
8/11
Arminia2
45%28%
Dynamo Dresden1
27%
DSCDRES
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.62.7
Non-shot xG1.51.4
8/11
MSV Duisburg0
43%28%
VfL Bochum2
29%
DUIBOC
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG1.90.4
Non-shot xG3.30.8
8/10
FC St. Pauli2
41%29%
Darmstadt 980
29%
STPDRM
Adjusted goals1.70.0
Shot-based xG2.30.4
Non-shot xG1.00.7
8/10
Ingolstadt1
52%27%
Greuther Fürth1
21%
INGFUR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG3.60.9
Non-shot xG3.00.6
8/10
SC Paderborn2
41%28%
Regensburg0
32%
PADJAHN
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.40.9
Non-shot xG0.61.7
8/6
Dynamo Dresden1
42%28%
MSV Duisburg0
30%
DRESDUI
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.10.7
Non-shot xG0.71.1
8/5
Heidenheim1
35%28%
Arminia1
37%
FCHDSC
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.01.1
Non-shot xG0.51.3
8/5
Darmstadt 981
43%28%
SC Paderborn0
29%
DRMPAD
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.11.0
Non-shot xG1.80.8
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.promotedprom.win 2. Bundesligawin league
1. FC Köln4 pts
52.7
1.6
1.3
18.88.86.4+2965<1%65%41%
Hamburger SV3 pts
46.0
1.4
1.4
16.48.49.1+17581%37%16%
Holstein Kiel4 pts
39.9
1.3
1.5
14.69.79.8+12533%24%9%
Union Berlin4 pts
37.8
1.1
1.5
13.710.110.2+6515%18%6%
Arminia4 pts
36.3
1.2
1.6
13.19.911.0+3497%14%5%
Ingolstadt1 pt
39.3
1.2
1.5
13.09.811.2+5497%14%5%
FC St. Pauli6 pts
33.2
1.0
1.5
13.09.311.7+1487%11%4%
Dynamo Dresden3 pts
34.2
1.0
1.5
12.49.212.4+04610%9%3%
VfL Bochum3 pts
31.5
1.0
1.6
11.69.113.3-44414%6%2%
Regensburg3 pts
31.7
1.1
1.7
11.68.713.6-64415%6%2%
Darmstadt 983 pts
30.8
1.0
1.6
11.29.213.6-74316%5%1%
MSV Duisburg0 pts
33.4
1.1
1.7
11.28.814.0-54218%5%1%
SC Paderborn3 pts
30.4
1.0
1.6
11.19.113.8-54217%5%1%
Heidenheim2 pts
30.2
1.0
1.6
10.211.212.6-64219%4%1%
Greuther Fürth4 pts
28.2
0.9
1.7
10.410.113.5-74120%4%1%
1. FC Magdeburg1 pt
29.8
0.9
1.6
9.910.213.9-84023%3%<1%
SV Sandhausen0 pts
28.0
0.8
1.6
9.49.415.2-143831%2%<1%
Erzgebirge Aue1 pt
26.1
0.8
1.6
8.510.515.0-133635%1%<1%
Forecast from
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