Updated Oct. 21, 2018 at 4:54 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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2. Bundesliga

2018-19 season

Germany, tier 2

Updated Oct. 20, 2018, at 8:59 a.m.

Upcoming matches
10/21
SC Paderborn
33%
28%
Union Berlin
40%
10/21
Hamburger SV
56%
25%
VfL Bochum
19%
10/21
Regensburg
45%
26%
Darmstadt 98
29%
10/22
MSV Duisburg
41%
27%
FC St. Pauli
31%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
10/20
Heidenheim3
41%29%
1. FC Magdeburg0
30%
FCHMAG
Adjusted goals2.50.0
Shot-based xG2.01.1
Non-shot xG1.31.7
10/20
Holstein Kiel1
26%24%
1. FC Köln1
51%
HOLCOL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.61.1
Non-shot xG1.70.6
10/20
Arminia2
50%28%
Greuther Fürth3
22%
DSCFUR
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.61.7
Non-shot xG1.91.2
10/19
Dynamo Dresden1
47%29%
Erzgebirge Aue1
24%
DRESERZ
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.41.0
Non-shot xG1.50.9
10/19
SV Sandhausen4
37%30%
Ingolstadt0
32%
SVSING
Adjusted goals3.60.0
Shot-based xG2.80.5
Non-shot xG1.51.2
10/8
1. FC Köln1
69%18%
MSV Duisburg2
12%
COLDUI
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.80.6
Non-shot xG2.30.9
10/7
Ingolstadt1
44%26%
SC Paderborn2
30%
INGPAD
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG2.31.2
Non-shot xG1.71.5
10/7
FC St. Pauli3
42%32%
SV Sandhausen1
27%
STPSVS
Adjusted goals2.61.1
Shot-based xG1.41.4
Non-shot xG0.71.6
10/7
Union Berlin1
53%27%
Heidenheim1
20%
FCUFCH
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.30.9
Non-shot xG1.70.8
10/6
1. FC Magdeburg2
39%30%
Dynamo Dresden2
31%
MAGDRES
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.01.5
Non-shot xG1.40.5
10/6
Greuther Fürth1
36%28%
Regensburg1
36%
FURJAHN
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.21.4
Non-shot xG1.61.8
10/6
Erzgebirge Aue2
31%28%
Holstein Kiel1
41%
ERZHOL
Adjusted goals1.91.1
Shot-based xG1.80.5
Non-shot xG1.21.4
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.promotedprom.win 2. Bundesligawin league
1. FC Köln20 pts
49.8
1.6
1.4
18.77.87.5+2664<1%69%44%
Hamburger SV17 pts
43.2
1.3
1.4
16.48.78.9+1158<1%40%18%
Union Berlin17 pts
39.8
1.1
1.4
14.512.27.4+1456<1%32%13%
Greuther Fürth19 pts
30.2
0.9
1.6
12.710.910.5+2494%10%3%
FC St. Pauli16 pts
32.1
1.0
1.6
13.58.112.4-2495%11%3%
Regensburg14 pts
34.6
1.2
1.8
13.28.612.2+3486%11%3%
SC Paderborn15 pts
33.6
1.2
1.7
12.89.611.6+2487%11%3%
Holstein Kiel13 pts
36.8
1.2
1.6
12.410.411.2+3486%10%3%
VfL Bochum14 pts
33.0
1.1
1.6
12.68.912.5+4477%8%2%
Arminia12 pts
36.4
1.2
1.6
12.49.612.0+0478%8%2%
Heidenheim15 pts
33.0
1.1
1.6
12.39.712.0+3477%8%2%
Dynamo Dresden14 pts
33.9
1.0
1.5
12.38.812.9+0469%6%1%
Darmstadt 9810 pts
31.5
1.0
1.6
11.28.114.7-84220%3%<1%
SV Sandhausen8 pts
31.3
0.9
1.5
9.99.114.9-73927%1%<1%
Erzgebirge Aue11 pts
26.9
0.8
1.6
9.88.915.2-103829%1%<1%
1. FC Magdeburg9 pts
30.9
1.0
1.6
8.512.712.7-93829%1%<1%
MSV Duisburg5 pts
30.6
1.1
1.8
9.28.716.2-143640%<1%<1%
Ingolstadt5 pts
31.6
1.1
1.7
9.08.516.5-183543%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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