Updated July 6, 2020, at 4:57 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 38 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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2. Bundesliga

2019-20 season

Germany, tier 2

Updated June 28, 2020, at 11:25 a.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
June 23-29
6/28
Regensburg1
39%28%
Erzgebirge Aue2
34%
JAHNERZ
Adjusted goals
Shot-based xG
Non-shot xG
6/28
Dynamo Dresden2
32%29%
VfL Osnabrück2
39%
DRESOSN
Adjusted goals
Shot-based xG
Non-shot xG
6/28
Hamburger SV1
52%26%
SV Sandhausen5
23%
HSVSVS
Adjusted goals
Shot-based xG
Non-shot xG
6/28
Holstein Kiel1
36%26%
Nürnberg1
38%
HOLNUR
Adjusted goals
Shot-based xG
Non-shot xG
6/28
Greuther Fürth1
34%28%
Karlsruher SC2
38%
FURKAR
Adjusted goals
Shot-based xG
Non-shot xG
6/28
Wehen5
36%28%
FC St. Pauli3
37%
WEHSTP
Adjusted goals
Shot-based xG
Non-shot xG
6/28
Hannover 962
42%27%
VfL Bochum0
31%
HANBOC
Adjusted goals
Shot-based xG
Non-shot xG
6/28
Arminia3
37%31%
Heidenheim0
32%
DSCFCH
Adjusted goals
Shot-based xG
Non-shot xG
6/28
VfB Stuttgart1
47%26%
Darmstadt 983
27%
STUDRM
Adjusted goals
Shot-based xG
Non-shot xG
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.promotedprom.win 2. Bundesligawin league
Arminia68 pts
43.3
1.2
1.3
+3568
VfB Stuttgart58 pts
51.4
1.6
1.4
+2158
Heidenheim55 pts
34.7
1.0
1.5
+95510%
Hamburger SV54 pts
40.5
1.3
1.6
+1654
Darmstadt 9852 pts
36.9
1.2
1.5
+552
Hannover 9648 pts
41.7
1.3
1.5
+548
Erzgebirge Aue47 pts
28.5
0.9
1.7
-247
VfL Bochum46 pts
30.8
1.0
1.7
+246
Greuther Fürth44 pts
31.7
1.0
1.6
+144
Holstein Kiel43 pts
34.4
1.3
1.8
-343
SV Sandhausen43 pts
39.3
1.3
1.6
-243
Regensburg43 pts
29.7
1.1
1.9
-643
VfL Osnabrück40 pts
33.5
1.1
1.7
-240
FC St. Pauli39 pts
27.0
1.0
1.8
-939
Karlsruher SC37 pts
32.3
1.1
1.7
-1137
Nürnberg37 pts
34.0
1.1
1.6
-133750%
Wehen34 pts
27.1
1.1
2.0
-2034
Dynamo Dresden32 pts
25.7
0.8
1.7
-2632
Forecast from
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