Updated June 16, 2018 at 10:01 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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2. Bundesliga

2017-18 season

Germany, tier 2

Updated May 13, 2018, at 11:29 a.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
5/13
Ingolstadt1
58%25%
1. FCK3
17%
INGFCK
Adjusted goals1.13.2
Shot-based xG2.51.6
Non-shot xG2.11.2
5/13
Dynamo Dresden0
36%29%
Union Berlin1
35%
DRESFCU
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.91.1
Non-shot xG1.50.9
5/13
Heidenheim1
45%29%
Greuther Fürth1
26%
FCHFUR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.30.3
Non-shot xG1.50.5
5/13
Nürnberg2
52%27%
Fortuna3
22%
NURF95
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.31.2
Non-shot xG1.01.1
5/13
Holstein Kiel6
53%28%
Braunschweig2
19%
HOLEBS
Adjusted goals6.32.1
Shot-based xG2.01.2
Non-shot xG1.40.8
5/13
Darmstadt 981
55%28%
Erzgebirge Aue0
17%
DRMERZ
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.81.0
Non-shot xG0.91.1
5/13
VfL Bochum1
43%27%
Regensburg1
29%
BOCJAH
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.51.4
Non-shot xG1.71.5
5/13
Arminia0
49%29%
SV Sandhausen0
21%
DSCSVS
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG2.10.4
Non-shot xG2.00.4
5/13
MSV Duisburg2
45%28%
FC St. Pauli0
28%
MSVSTP
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG1.60.6
Non-shot xG1.11.7
5/6
Regensburg0
39%27%
Darmstadt 983
33%
JAHDRM
Adjusted goals0.03.1
Shot-based xG2.00.6
Non-shot xG2.40.5
5/6
Fortuna1
36%27%
Holstein Kiel1
37%
F95HOL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.81.0
Non-shot xG1.02.6
5/6
SV Sandhausen0
31%32%
Nürnberg2
37%
SVSNUR
Adjusted goals0.02.0
Shot-based xG1.01.8
Non-shot xG0.90.9
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.promotedprom.win 2. Bundesligawin league
Fortuna63 pts
40.5
1.3
1.6
19.06.09.0+1363—✓✓
Nürnberg60 pts
46.8
1.4
1.3
17.09.08.0+2260—✓—
Holstein Kiel56 pts
47.8
1.5
1.4
14.014.06.0+2756—34%—
Regensburg48 pts
37.2
1.3
1.7
14.06.014.0+048———
Arminia48 pts
43.0
1.3
1.4
12.012.010.0+448———
VfL Bochum48 pts
38.3
1.1
1.5
13.09.012.0-348———
MSV Duisburg48 pts
38.9
1.3
1.6
13.09.012.0-448———
Union Berlin47 pts
44.1
1.3
1.4
12.011.011.0+847———
Ingolstadt45 pts
45.3
1.4
1.4
12.09.013.0+245———
SV Sandhausen43 pts
35.8
0.9
1.3
11.010.013.0+243———
FC St. Pauli43 pts
36.4
1.1
1.5
11.010.013.0-1343———
Darmstadt 9843 pts
42.2
1.2
1.4
10.013.011.0+243———
Heidenheim42 pts
36.0
1.2
1.6
11.09.014.0-642———
Dynamo Dresden41 pts
37.2
1.1
1.5
11.08.015.0-1041———
Greuther Fürth40 pts
33.8
1.0
1.5
10.010.014.0-1140———
Erzgebirge Aue40 pts
30.9
0.9
1.6
10.010.014.0-144050%——
Braunschweig39 pts
34.5
1.0
1.5
8.015.011.0-639✓——
1. FCK35 pts
34.0
1.2
1.7
9.08.017.0-1335✓——
Forecast from

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