Updated Dec. 12, 2018, at 5:03 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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2. Bundesliga

2018-19 season

Germany, tier 2

Updated Dec. 10, 2018, at 4:28 p.m.

Upcoming matches
12/14
MSV Duisburg
21%
27%
Hamburger SV
52%
12/14
Holstein Kiel
48%
26%
Arminia
26%
12/15
Union Berlin
54%
26%
VfL Bochum
19%
12/15
SC Paderborn
45%
27%
Dynamo Dresden
29%
12/15
FC St. Pauli
53%
26%
Greuther Fürth
21%
12/16
Erzgebirge Aue
37%
31%
Darmstadt 98
32%
12/16
SV Sandhausen
41%
27%
Regensburg
32%
12/16
Ingolstadt
43%
27%
Heidenheim
30%
12/17
1. FC Köln
69%
20%
1. FC Magdeburg
12%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
12/10
VfL Bochum1
42%29%
FC St. Pauli3
28%
BOCSTP
Adjusted goals1.12.7
Shot-based xG2.53.4
Non-shot xG3.01.5
12/9
1. FC Magdeburg1
26%29%
Union Berlin1
44%
MAGFCU
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.71.4
Non-shot xG1.51.7
12/9
Dynamo Dresden0
36%27%
Holstein Kiel2
37%
DRESHOL
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG1.12.2
Non-shot xG2.31.3
12/9
Arminia1
43%30%
SV Sandhausen1
27%
DSCSVS
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.90.9
Non-shot xG1.70.7
12/8
Heidenheim4
45%28%
MSV Duisburg1
27%
FCHDUI
Adjusted goals3.71.1
Shot-based xG1.61.2
Non-shot xG1.10.9
12/8
Darmstadt 981
39%29%
Ingolstadt1
32%
DRMING
Adjusted goals0.81.1
Shot-based xG1.71.1
Non-shot xG1.80.5
12/8
Greuther Fürth0
40%30%
Erzgebirge Aue5
30%
FURERZ
Adjusted goals0.04.4
Shot-based xG1.33.0
Non-shot xG1.80.7
12/7
Regensburg1
22%22%
1. FC Köln3
56%
JAHNCOL
Adjusted goals1.13.2
Shot-based xG1.12.3
Non-shot xG2.61.6
12/7
Hamburger SV1
57%24%
SC Paderborn0
19%
HSVPAD
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.60.7
Non-shot xG1.51.3
12/2
1. FC Magdeburg0
39%28%
VfL Bochum0
33%
MAGBOC
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.80.6
Non-shot xG1.11.3
12/2
SV Sandhausen1
44%29%
Heidenheim2
27%
SVSFCH
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.40.9
Non-shot xG1.80.7
12/2
MSV Duisburg0
36%27%
Holstein Kiel4
37%
DUIHOL
Adjusted goals0.03.5
Shot-based xG0.43.8
Non-shot xG0.92.4
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.promotedprom.win 2. Bundesligawin league
1. FC Köln33 pts
52.9
1.7
1.4
20.27.26.6+3968<1%86%56%
Hamburger SV34 pts
45.2
1.3
1.3
18.68.96.6+1665<1%67%29%
Union Berlin28 pts
42.2
1.2
1.3
14.015.14.9+2057<1%29%7%
Holstein Kiel27 pts
39.9
1.4
1.7
14.810.68.7+1355<1%20%4%
FC St. Pauli28 pts
33.7
1.0
1.6
14.69.010.4+353<1%11%2%
Heidenheim26 pts
32.6
1.1
1.7
13.210.010.9+449<1%5%<1%
VfL Bochum24 pts
33.7
1.1
1.6
12.210.910.9+4471%3%<1%
SC Paderborn22 pts
35.5
1.3
1.7
11.811.710.5+6472%3%<1%
Regensburg22 pts
35.7
1.3
1.8
11.911.510.6+2472%3%<1%
Dynamo Dresden22 pts
32.8
1.0
1.5
12.19.112.8-5453%2%<1%
Greuther Fürth23 pts
25.3
0.9
1.8
10.89.813.4-16428%<1%<1%
Darmstadt 9818 pts
31.2
0.9
1.5
10.88.215.0-94112%<1%<1%
Arminia15 pts
34.9
1.1
1.5
9.611.013.5-64015%<1%<1%
Erzgebirge Aue18 pts
27.7
0.8
1.6
10.38.115.5-63915%<1%<1%
SV Sandhausen11 pts
30.7
0.9
1.5
8.010.215.9-113439%<1%<1%
MSV Duisburg13 pts
26.1
0.9
1.8
7.98.917.2-223349%<1%<1%
1. FC Magdeburg11 pts
30.0
1.0
1.7
6.412.914.7-143250%<1%<1%
Ingolstadt9 pts
31.2
1.0
1.7
7.010.916.1-203253%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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