Updated June 15, 2019, at 9:28 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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2. Bundesliga

2018-19 season

Germany, tier 2

Updated May 19, 2019, at 11:28 a.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
May
5/19
1. FC Magdeburg1
30%26%
1. FC Köln1
44%
MAGCOL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.61.9
Non-shot xG1.81.4
5/19
Regensburg2
45%25%
SV Sandhausen2
30%
JAHNSVS
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.11.4
Non-shot xG2.01.3
5/19
Dynamo Dresden3
26%26%
SC Paderborn1
48%
DRESPAD
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG1.11.5
Non-shot xG1.71.8
5/19
Hamburger SV3
48%26%
MSV Duisburg0
26%
HSVDUI
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG3.81.6
Non-shot xG2.90.7
5/19
Heidenheim4
33%27%
Ingolstadt2
39%
FCHING
Adjusted goals3.72.1
Shot-based xG2.61.8
Non-shot xG1.31.4
5/19
Darmstadt 981
41%29%
Erzgebirge Aue0
30%
DRMERZ
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.50.9
Non-shot xG0.70.9
5/19
Greuther Fürth2
36%30%
FC St. Pauli1
34%
FURSTP
Adjusted goals1.91.1
Shot-based xG2.51.1
Non-shot xG2.31.0
5/19
VfL Bochum2
23%26%
Union Berlin2
51%
BOCFCU
Adjusted goals2.11.7
Shot-based xG1.61.8
Non-shot xG1.02.6
5/19
Arminia1
39%26%
Holstein Kiel0
35%
DSCHOL
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.40.8
Non-shot xG1.21.7
5/12
Ingolstadt3
49%27%
Darmstadt 980
24%
INGDRM
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG1.60.7
Non-shot xG1.51.2
5/12
SV Sandhausen0
39%28%
Arminia3
33%
SVSDSC
Adjusted goals0.03.1
Shot-based xG1.11.1
Non-shot xG1.31.0
5/12
Holstein Kiel3
43%26%
Dynamo Dresden0
31%
HOLDRES
Adjusted goals3.00.0
Shot-based xG2.10.3
Non-shot xG1.50.6
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.promotedprom.win 2. Bundesligawin league
1. FC Köln63 pts
50.8
1.7
1.5
19.06.09.0+3763—✓✓
SC Paderborn57 pts
38.0
1.4
1.7
16.09.09.0+2657—✓—
Union Berlin57 pts
44.4
1.3
1.4
14.015.05.0+2157—29%—
Hamburger SV56 pts
41.6
1.2
1.3
16.08.010.0+356———
Heidenheim55 pts
34.5
1.2
1.7
15.010.09.0+1055———
Holstein Kiel49 pts
39.0
1.4
1.7
13.010.011.0+949———
FC St. Pauli49 pts
27.5
0.9
1.8
14.07.013.0-749———
Regensburg49 pts
37.1
1.5
1.9
12.013.09.0+149———
Arminia49 pts
37.7
1.2
1.5
13.010.011.0+249———
Darmstadt 9846 pts
31.3
1.0
1.6
13.07.014.0-846———
VfL Bochum44 pts
33.1
1.1
1.7
11.011.012.0-144———
Dynamo Dresden42 pts
30.3
0.9
1.6
11.09.014.0-742———
Greuther Fürth42 pts
26.1
0.8
1.7
10.012.012.0-1942———
Erzgebirge Aue40 pts
26.9
0.8
1.7
11.07.016.0-440———
SV Sandhausen38 pts
32.3
1.0
1.6
9.011.014.0-738———
Ingolstadt35 pts
37.3
1.2
1.6
9.08.017.0-123550%——
1. FC Magdeburg31 pts
31.0
0.9
1.5
6.013.015.0-1831✓——
MSV Duisburg28 pts
24.7
1.1
2.1
6.010.018.0-2628✓——
Forecast from
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