Updated Oct. 28, 2020, at 7:58 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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2. Bundesliga

2020-21

Germany, tier 2

Updated Oct. 25, 2020, at 10:25 a.m.

Upcoming matches
October 27 - November 2
10/28
VfL Osnabrück
34%
28%
Darmstadt 98
38%
10/30
Hamburger SV
66%
21%
FC St. Pauli
14%
10/30
Fortuna
51%
26%
Heidenheim
23%
10/31
Erzgebirge Aue
32%
28%
Holstein Kiel
40%
10/31
SC Paderborn
48%
27%
Regensburg
25%
10/31
Braunschweig
31%
29%
Nürnberg
40%
10/31
VfL Osnabrück
38%
28%
SV Sandhausen
34%
11/1
Karlsruher SC
38%
28%
Darmstadt 98
33%
11/1
Greuther Fürth
26%
28%
Hannover 96
47%
11/1
Kickers
31%
29%
VfL Bochum
39%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
October 20-26
10/25
Heidenheim1
44%28%
VfL Osnabrück1
28%
FCHOSN
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.30.6
Non-shot xG1.60.5
10/25
SV Sandhausen1
32%27%
SC Paderborn1
41%
SVSPAD
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.71.3
Non-shot xG0.80.9
10/25
VfL Bochum2
44%29%
Erzgebirge Aue0
27%
BOCERZ
Adjusted goals1.40.0
Shot-based xG2.30.2
Non-shot xG1.70.2
10/24
Hamburger SV3
69%20%
Kickers1
11%
HSVFWK
Adjusted goals2.61.1
Shot-based xG2.21.1
Non-shot xG2.50.6
10/24
Holstein Kiel1
46%28%
Greuther Fürth3
27%
HOLFUR
Adjusted goals1.13.2
Shot-based xG1.02.3
Non-shot xG1.42.0
10/24
Darmstadt 982
47%27%
FC St. Pauli2
27%
DRMSTP
Adjusted goals2.02.1
Shot-based xG2.61.8
Non-shot xG1.02.0
10/24
Hannover 963
37%27%
Fortuna0
36%
HANF95
Adjusted goals2.20.0
Shot-based xG2.00.0
Non-shot xG1.80.2
10/23
Regensburg3
45%28%
Braunschweig0
27%
JAHNEBS
Adjusted goals2.60.0
Shot-based xG1.80.6
Non-shot xG1.50.8
10/23
Nürnberg1
40%28%
Karlsruher SC1
31%
NURKAR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.80.7
Non-shot xG0.81.3
10/21
Hamburger SV3
64%22%
Erzgebirge Aue0
14%
HSVERZ
Adjusted goals3.10.0
Shot-based xG2.00.1
Non-shot xG1.50.3
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.promotedprom.win 2. Bundesligawin league
Hamburger SV15 pts
50.0
1.6
1.4
+2868<1%73%51%
Hannover 969 pts
45.9
1.4
1.3
+2158<1%40%17%
Fortuna4 pts
44.9
1.4
1.4
+10533%23%7%
SC Paderborn5 pts
39.8
1.2
1.5
+7505%14%4%
Holstein Kiel10 pts
34.9
1.2
1.7
+1496%13%4%
Darmstadt 985 pts
36.0
1.2
1.6
+1479%10%3%
Regensburg9 pts
32.9
1.1
1.6
+1468%8%2%
VfL Bochum8 pts
34.4
1.1
1.6
+0469%8%2%
SV Sandhausen7 pts
33.1
1.1
1.7
-54511%6%2%
Greuther Fürth6 pts
34.1
1.1
1.6
+04511%7%2%
Nürnberg6 pts
34.6
1.1
1.6
-14512%7%2%
Heidenheim5 pts
35.7
1.1
1.5
-14412%6%2%
Karlsruher SC4 pts
34.5
1.1
1.6
-14414%5%1%
VfL Osnabrück6 pts
30.6
1.0
1.7
-44315%5%1%
FC St. Pauli6 pts
31.6
1.1
1.8
-54217%4%<1%
Erzgebirge Aue7 pts
26.8
0.9
1.7
-113924%2%<1%
Braunschweig4 pts
24.9
0.8
1.8
-203541%<1%<1%
Kickers1 pt
25.0
0.8
1.8
-213252%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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