Updated Jan. 21, 2018 at 1:06 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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2. Bundesliga

2017-18 season

Germany, tier 2

Updated Dec. 18, 2017 at 4:25 PM

Upcoming matches
1/23
VfL Bochum
41%
30%
MSV Duisburg
28%
1/23
Holstein Kiel
45%
27%
Union Berlin
29%
1/23
Nürnberg
52%
25%
Jahn
23%
1/23
Ingolstadt
60%
26%
SV Sandhausen
14%
1/24
Darmstadt 98
53%
28%
1. FCK
20%
1/24
Arminia
46%
28%
Greuther Fürth
26%
1/24
Heidenheim
37%
30%
BTSV
33%
1/24
Fortuna
50%
30%
Erzgebirge Aue
20%
1/25
Dynamo Dresden
47%
28%
FC St. Pauli
25%
1/26
Union Berlin
39%
26%
Nürnberg
35%
1/26
Jahn
24%
27%
Ingolstadt
49%
1/27
1. FCK
35%
32%
Fortuna
33%
1/27
MSV Duisburg
46%
28%
Heidenheim
26%
1/27
Greuther Fürth
35%
30%
Holstein Kiel
36%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance.See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
12/18
FC St. Pauli2
36%32%
VfL Bochum1
32%
STPBOC
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.31.1
Non-shot xG0.91.7
12/17
SV Sandhausen3
33%31%
Holstein Kiel1
36%
SVSHOL
Adjusted goals3.11.1
Shot-based xG1.41.2
Non-shot xG1.22.4
12/17
Greuther Fürth1
37%29%
Darmstadt 981
34%
FURDRM
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.61.0
Non-shot xG1.41.0
12/17
MSV Duisburg2
39%28%
Dynamo Dresden0
33%
MSVDRES
Adjusted goals1.80.0
Shot-based xG1.90.4
Non-shot xG1.71.2
12/16
Jahn3
38%27%
Arminia2
35%
JAHDSC
Adjusted goals3.02.1
Shot-based xG1.21.7
Non-shot xG2.01.6
12/16
Erzgebirge Aue1
36%29%
Heidenheim1
34%
ERZFCH
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.30.9
Non-shot xG0.61.5
12/16
1. FCK1
28%29%
Nürnberg1
43%
FCKNUR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.51.4
Non-shot xG0.91.1
12/15
BTSV0
46%30%
Fortuna1
25%
EBSF95
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.00.4
Non-shot xG1.60.5
12/15
Union Berlin1
29%27%
Ingolstadt2
44%
FCUING
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.51.7
Non-shot xG1.61.3
12/11
Fortuna0
35%28%
Nürnberg2
37%
F95NUR
Adjusted goals0.01.9
Shot-based xG1.71.7
Non-shot xG1.31.0
12/10
SV Sandhausen3
35%30%
Arminia1
35%
SVSDSC
Adjusted goals2.71.1
Shot-based xG1.61.5
Non-shot xG1.71.7
12/10
FC St. Pauli2
39%30%
MSV Duisburg2
31%
STPMSV
Adjusted goals2.11.9
Shot-based xG1.22.1
Non-shot xG1.22.0
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.promotedprom.win 2. Bundesligawin league
Ingolstadt28 pts
56.1
1.5
1.1
16.78.29.1+2058<1%58%29%
Nürnberg33 pts
45.0
1.4
1.5
16.87.39.9+1758<1%51%26%
Holstein Kiel33 pts
43.5
1.3
1.4
15.510.58.0+1757<1%46%22%
Fortuna34 pts
37.4
1.1
1.5
15.48.79.9+655<1%29%12%
Union Berlin26 pts
41.2
1.4
1.6
13.49.411.2+10502%12%3%
Arminia25 pts
39.6
1.4
1.6
13.18.312.5+2484%7%2%
SV Sandhausen27 pts
37.8
1.1
1.4
13.27.912.9+4483%6%1%
MSV Duisburg26 pts
38.6
1.2
1.5
12.69.611.8-1474%6%1%
Jahn25 pts
36.4
1.2
1.7
13.35.415.3+0457%4%<1%
Dynamo Dresden23 pts
38.9
1.2
1.5
11.89.612.6-2458%3%<1%
VfL Bochum23 pts
38.8
1.1
1.4
11.69.812.6-3459%2%<1%
BTSV22 pts
40.4
1.1
1.3
9.614.99.5+34411%2%<1%
FC St. Pauli24 pts
34.2
1.1
1.6
10.810.612.5-154315%2%<1%
Darmstadt 9819 pts
41.4
1.3
1.5
10.211.412.4-14216%2%<1%
Heidenheim22 pts
34.9
1.2
1.7
11.18.514.5-114220%<1%<1%
Erzgebirge Aue23 pts
29.6
0.9
1.6
9.89.714.5-153932%<1%<1%
Greuther Fürth18 pts
36.8
1.1
1.5
10.37.816.0-113935%<1%<1%
1. FCK12 pts
32.3
1.0
1.5
6.510.816.7-213083%<1%<1%
Forecast from

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