Updated Apr. 22, 2018 at 9:02 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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2. Bundesliga

2017-18 season

Germany, tier 2

Updated Apr. 22, 2018, at 9:25 a.m.

Upcoming matches
4/23
Holstein Kiel
42%
29%
Nürnberg
29%
4/27
Arminia
55%
26%
1. FCK
20%
4/27
VfL Bochum
53%
29%
Erzgebirge Aue
19%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
4/22
Fortuna3
28%28%
Ingolstadt0
44%
F95ING
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG2.10.7
Non-shot xG1.11.3
4/22
Erzgebirge Aue1
39%29%
MSV Duisburg3
32%
ERZMSV
Adjusted goals1.12.6
Shot-based xG0.52.9
Non-shot xG1.01.5
4/22
1. FCK0
39%28%
Dynamo Dresden1
33%
FCKDRES
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.52.1
Non-shot xG0.81.4
4/21
Regensburg3
48%27%
FC St. Pauli1
25%
JAHSTP
Adjusted goals2.91.1
Shot-based xG1.91.6
Non-shot xG1.61.2
4/21
SV Sandhausen1
40%32%
Darmstadt 981
28%
SVSDRM
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.82.2
Non-shot xG1.51.9
4/21
Union Berlin1
51%26%
Heidenheim1
23%
FCUFCH
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.90.7
Non-shot xG1.60.5
4/20
Braunschweig0
38%29%
Arminia0
33%
EBSDSC
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.91.5
Non-shot xG1.02.0
4/20
Greuther Fürth1
37%32%
VfL Bochum1
31%
FURBOC
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.91.1
Non-shot xG0.92.1
4/15
Ingolstadt1
49%28%
Nürnberg1
23%
INGNUR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.90.8
Non-shot xG1.90.8
4/15
Heidenheim3
38%27%
Fortuna1
35%
FCHF95
Adjusted goals2.91.1
Shot-based xG1.41.5
Non-shot xG1.91.5
4/15
Darmstadt 981
42%31%
Braunschweig1
27%
DRMEBS
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.70.3
Non-shot xG2.00.8
4/14
Dynamo Dresden0
37%28%
Holstein Kiel4
34%
DRESHOL
Adjusted goals0.03.3
Shot-based xG1.51.4
Non-shot xG1.80.8
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.promotedprom.win 2. Bundesligawin league
Fortuna56 pts
39.0
1.3
1.6
17.95.810.2+106094%64%
Nürnberg51 pts
44.4
1.3
1.4
15.610.28.3+185775%26%
Holstein Kiel49 pts
44.5
1.3
1.4
13.514.16.3+215552%10%
Regensburg47 pts
40.0
1.4
1.7
15.15.813.1+6515%<1%
Arminia44 pts
43.2
1.3
1.5
12.411.89.8+549<1%<1%
VfL Bochum44 pts
41.0
1.2
1.4
13.28.911.9-149<1%<1%
Ingolstadt42 pts
49.0
1.4
1.2
12.49.811.7+847<1%<1%
SV Sandhausen42 pts
38.5
1.0
1.3
11.99.912.2+546<1%<1%
MSV Duisburg41 pts
35.9
1.3
1.7
12.18.813.0-945<1%<1%
Union Berlin41 pts
42.1
1.3
1.4
11.111.911.0+745<1%<1%
Dynamo Dresden40 pts
37.8
1.2
1.5
12.17.914.0-8442%<1%
Heidenheim38 pts
34.5
1.2
1.7
11.18.914.0-74212%
Braunschweig39 pts
38.4
1.1
1.4
8.815.99.3+1427%
Erzgebirge Aue39 pts
30.3
1.0
1.7
10.79.913.4-144217%
Greuther Fürth38 pts
36.0
1.0
1.4
11.08.914.1-84217%
FC St. Pauli37 pts
34.7
1.1
1.6
10.010.913.1-154133%
Darmstadt 9834 pts
40.8
1.2
1.4
8.213.911.9-33961%
1. FCK29 pts
32.1
1.1
1.7
7.78.817.5-1732>99%
Forecast from

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