Updated Oct. 20, 2019, at 10:38 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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2. Bundesliga

2019-20 season

Germany, tier 2

Updated Oct. 20, 2019, at 9:25 a.m.

Upcoming matches
October 15-21
10/21
Arminia
30%
28%
Hamburger SV
42%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
October 15-21
10/20
Hannover 960
54%27%
VfL Osnabrück0
20%
HANOSN
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.60.3
Non-shot xG2.70.6
10/20
VfL Bochum3
47%26%
Karlsruher SC3
28%
BOCKAR
Adjusted goals2.73.2
Shot-based xG1.81.9
Non-shot xG1.11.4
10/20
VfB Stuttgart0
63%21%
Holstein Kiel1
15%
STUHOL
Adjusted goals0.00.8
Shot-based xG2.01.0
Non-shot xG2.21.0
10/19
Regensburg1
47%25%
SV Sandhausen0
28%
JAHNSVS
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.80.6
Non-shot xG1.11.5
10/19
FC St. Pauli0
43%28%
Darmstadt 981
29%
STPDRM
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.81.1
Non-shot xG1.60.7
10/19
Wehen0
36%27%
Heidenheim0
37%
WEHFCH
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.71.4
Non-shot xG0.80.8
10/18
Greuther Fürth2
40%29%
Dynamo Dresden0
31%
FURDRES
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.70.9
Non-shot xG0.81.2
10/18
Erzgebirge Aue4
30%27%
Nürnberg3
43%
ERZNUR
Adjusted goals3.43.2
Shot-based xG2.12.5
Non-shot xG1.21.2
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.promotedprom.win 2. Bundesligawin league
Hamburger SV20 pts
48.5
1.4
1.3
+3065<1%68%40%
VfB Stuttgart20 pts
50.7
1.5
1.3
+2264<1%67%35%
Arminia18 pts
39.4
1.2
1.5
+1556<1%29%11%
Hannover 9612 pts
42.1
1.2
1.4
+5513%14%3%
Nürnberg13 pts
38.8
1.3
1.6
+5495%11%2%
Regensburg14 pts
35.9
1.3
1.7
+6485%10%2%
Erzgebirge Aue18 pts
29.3
1.0
1.8
-4477%6%1%
Holstein Kiel11 pts
35.9
1.2
1.7
-24511%5%<1%
Heidenheim13 pts
33.4
1.1
1.6
+04510%4%<1%
FC St. Pauli13 pts
31.7
1.1
1.7
-14412%4%<1%
Greuther Fürth14 pts
28.4
0.9
1.7
-94315%2%<1%
Karlsruher SC13 pts
30.1
1.0
1.8
-74216%3%<1%
SV Sandhausen12 pts
31.7
1.0
1.7
-54216%3%<1%
Darmstadt 9811 pts
29.7
0.9
1.6
-84121%2%<1%
VfL Bochum9 pts
32.3
1.2
1.8
-64023%2%<1%
VfL Osnabrück11 pts
29.3
0.9
1.6
-54022%1%<1%
Dynamo Dresden9 pts
28.5
0.9
1.7
-163736%<1%<1%
Wehen8 pts
26.0
0.9
1.9
-223449%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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