Updated Jan. 22, 2021, at 4:57 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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2. Bundesliga

2020-21

Germany, tier 2

Updated Jan. 18, 2021, at 4:20 p.m.

Upcoming matches
January 19-25
1/22
VfL Osnabrück
39%
28%
Erzgebirge Aue
32%
1/22
Fortuna
45%
28%
Greuther Fürth
27%
1/23
Karlsruher SC
40%
28%
Heidenheim
32%
1/23
SC Paderborn
54%
26%
Kickers
20%
1/23
Braunschweig
14%
23%
Hamburger SV
62%
1/24
FC St. Pauli
40%
27%
Regensburg
33%
1/24
Darmstadt 98
36%
27%
Holstein Kiel
37%
1/24
Nürnberg
30%
29%
Hannover 96
41%
1/24
SV Sandhausen
28%
27%
VfL Bochum
45%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
January 12-18
1/18
Hamburger SV5
67%21%
VfL Osnabrück0
12%
HSVOSN
Adjusted goals5.30.0
Shot-based xG1.50.9
Non-shot xG1.41.2
1/17
Regensburg3
40%28%
SV Sandhausen1
32%
JAHNSVS
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG1.30.8
Non-shot xG1.51.1
1/17
Heidenheim3
40%29%
Darmstadt 980
32%
FCHDRM
Adjusted goals2.80.0
Shot-based xG2.20.5
Non-shot xG1.31.4
1/17
Holstein Kiel2
43%27%
Karlsruher SC3
30%
HOLKAR
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG2.31.7
Non-shot xG1.61.1
1/16
Erzgebirge Aue0
23%27%
Fortuna3
50%
ERZF95
Adjusted goals0.02.4
Shot-based xG0.82.2
Non-shot xG1.21.8
1/16
Hannover 962
55%26%
FC St. Pauli3
19%
HANSTP
Adjusted goals2.12.9
Shot-based xG2.31.5
Non-shot xG2.01.2
1/16
VfL Bochum3
49%28%
Nürnberg1
24%
BOCNUR
Adjusted goals2.81.1
Shot-based xG1.71.9
Non-shot xG2.51.4
1/15
Kickers0
41%30%
Braunschweig0
29%
FWKEBS
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.30.2
Non-shot xG1.80.1
1/15
Greuther Fürth1
41%28%
SC Paderborn1
31%
FURPAD
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.61.5
Non-shot xG1.61.1
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.promotedprom.win 2. Bundesligawin league
Hamburger SV33 pts
48.3
1.5
1.4
+2865<1%73%48%
Fortuna30 pts
43.3
1.3
1.4
+1259<1%40%16%
VfL Bochum32 pts
39.7
1.2
1.5
+1959<1%39%16%
Greuther Fürth28 pts
39.9
1.2
1.5
+1455<1%21%6%
Holstein Kiel29 pts
36.9
1.2
1.6
+1155<1%18%5%
Hannover 9623 pts
42.0
1.2
1.4
+1152<1%11%2%
Karlsruher SC25 pts
37.8
1.3
1.7
+651<1%9%2%
Heidenheim25 pts
36.8
1.1
1.4
+350<1%7%2%
SC Paderborn22 pts
40.9
1.2
1.5
+850<1%7%1%
Nürnberg20 pts
34.4
1.1
1.6
-1445%1%<1%
Regensburg20 pts
32.4
1.1
1.7
-4437%<1%<1%
Erzgebirge Aue22 pts
27.7
1.0
1.8
-3437%<1%<1%
VfL Osnabrück22 pts
27.2
0.9
1.8
-12438%<1%<1%
Darmstadt 9818 pts
35.0
1.2
1.7
-3438%<1%<1%
SV Sandhausen14 pts
29.5
1.0
1.8
-223538%<1%<1%
FC St. Pauli13 pts
29.7
1.1
1.8
-133537%<1%<1%
Braunschweig14 pts
22.5
0.7
1.7
-293163%<1%<1%
Kickers9 pts
26.1
0.9
1.8
-252875%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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