Updated Dec. 12, 2019, at 5:05 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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2. Bundesliga

2019-20 season

Germany, tier 2

Updated Dec. 9, 2019, at 4:28 p.m.

Upcoming matches
December 10-16
12/13
VfL Bochum
37%
26%
Hannover 96
37%
12/13
Erzgebirge Aue
35%
26%
Regensburg
39%
12/14
Karlsruher SC
44%
27%
Greuther Fürth
29%
12/14
FC St. Pauli
48%
28%
Wehen
24%
12/14
Heidenheim
32%
28%
Arminia
39%
12/15
Nürnberg
43%
26%
Holstein Kiel
31%
12/15
VfL Osnabrück
43%
29%
Dynamo Dresden
28%
12/15
SV Sandhausen
26%
27%
Hamburger SV
48%
12/16
Darmstadt 98
20%
25%
VfB Stuttgart
55%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
December 3-9
12/9
VfB Stuttgart3
60%23%
Nürnberg1
17%
STUNUR
Adjusted goals3.11.1
Shot-based xG2.10.9
Non-shot xG1.40.5
12/8
Regensburg1
45%26%
FC St. Pauli0
30%
JAHNSTP
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.81.5
Non-shot xG1.01.1
12/8
Dynamo Dresden1
37%29%
SV Sandhausen1
35%
DRESSVS
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.92.1
Non-shot xG1.22.2
12/8
Wehen0
37%29%
Darmstadt 980
34%
WEHDRM
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.01.2
Non-shot xG1.51.2
12/7
Holstein Kiel2
47%27%
VfL Osnabrück4
26%
HOLOSN
Adjusted goals2.14.0
Shot-based xG2.71.4
Non-shot xG2.40.8
12/7
Greuther Fürth3
38%28%
VfL Bochum1
34%
FURBOC
Adjusted goals2.61.1
Shot-based xG2.61.0
Non-shot xG1.21.1
12/7
Hannover 963
53%26%
Erzgebirge Aue2
21%
HANERZ
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG3.10.4
Non-shot xG1.70.3
12/6
Hamburger SV0
62%23%
Heidenheim1
15%
HSVFCH
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.61.0
Non-shot xG1.70.5
12/6
Arminia2
57%24%
Karlsruher SC2
19%
DSCKAR
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.10.6
Non-shot xG2.40.5
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.promotedprom.win 2. Bundesligawin league
VfB Stuttgart29 pts
50.7
1.6
1.4
+2062<1%66%33%
Hamburger SV29 pts
48.7
1.4
1.3
+2962<1%64%31%
Arminia33 pts
41.3
1.3
1.5
+2362<1%59%29%
Heidenheim26 pts
35.1
1.1
1.6
+7511%10%3%
Regensburg23 pts
34.4
1.3
1.8
+4483%5%<1%
Hannover 9620 pts
38.6
1.2
1.5
-3474%4%<1%
SV Sandhausen22 pts
35.7
1.1
1.6
+1474%4%<1%
Holstein Kiel21 pts
36.6
1.3
1.7
+0474%4%<1%
VfL Osnabrück23 pts
32.2
1.0
1.6
+3464%4%<1%
Greuther Fürth22 pts
30.2
1.0
1.6
-4448%2%<1%
Erzgebirge Aue23 pts
26.9
0.9
1.8
-6439%2%<1%
Karlsruher SC20 pts
31.6
1.1
1.8
-44310%2%<1%
Darmstadt 9819 pts
30.1
0.9
1.6
-94117%<1%<1%
Nürnberg15 pts
35.6
1.2
1.6
-94020%<1%<1%
VfL Bochum17 pts
32.2
1.2
1.8
-54020%<1%<1%
FC St. Pauli15 pts
30.8
1.0
1.6
-73830%<1%<1%
Dynamo Dresden13 pts
27.1
0.9
1.7
-183356%<1%<1%
Wehen14 pts
24.9
0.9
1.9
-223360%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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