Updated Nov. 17, 2017 at 11:54 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Bundesliga

2017-18 season

Germany

Updated Nov. 17, 2017 at 4:27 PM

Upcoming matches
11/18
Leverkusen
46%
25%
RB Leipzig
29%
11/18
Wolfsburg
56%
25%
SC Freiburg
19%
11/18
Mainz
50%
27%
1. FC Cologne
23%
11/18
Bayern Munich
84%
12%
FC Augsburg
4%
11/18
Hoffenheim
48%
27%
Eintracht
25%
11/18
Hertha BSC
38%
26%
Gladbach
36%
11/19
Schalke 04
59%
26%
Hamburger SV
15%
11/19
Werder Bremen
47%
27%
Hannover 96
26%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
11/17
VfB Stuttgart2
19%21%
Dortmund1
60%
STUDOR
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.22.1
Non-shot xG1.01.2
11/5
Wolfsburg3
49%29%
Hertha BSC3
22%
WLFHER
Adjusted goals3.23.2
Shot-based xG2.81.6
Non-shot xG2.10.7
11/5
1. FC Cologne0
35%27%
Hoffenheim3
38%
COLHOF
Adjusted goals0.02.9
Shot-based xG1.32.6
Non-shot xG1.01.4
11/4
Dortmund1
29%22%
Bayern Munich3
49%
DORBMU
Adjusted goals1.13.2
Shot-based xG2.31.4
Non-shot xG1.20.9
11/4
RB Leipzig2
61%23%
Hannover 961
15%
RBLHAN
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.60.7
Non-shot xG1.11.0
11/4
Hamburger SV3
42%29%
VfB Stuttgart1
29%
HSVSTU
Adjusted goals2.51.1
Shot-based xG1.71.1
Non-shot xG2.20.5
11/4
FC Augsburg1
35%25%
Leverkusen1
40%
AUGLEV
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.61.2
Non-shot xG1.71.6
11/4
SC Freiburg0
30%28%
Schalke 041
42%
FRESCH
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.50.8
Non-shot xG0.80.4
11/4
Gladbach1
54%24%
Mainz1
22%
MGBMNZ
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.80.9
Non-shot xG2.21.4
11/3
Eintracht2
51%27%
Werder Bremen1
22%
FRABRE
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.21.1
Non-shot xG1.71.4
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Bundesligawin league
Bayern Munich26 pts
93.0
3.3
0.4
25.55.43.1+6282<1%>99%94%
Dortmund20 pts
83.6
2.8
0.8
18.86.48.8+3363<1%78%3%
RB Leipzig22 pts
75.8
2.1
0.7
17.36.99.9+1359<1%58%1%
Schalke 0420 pts
73.9
1.9
0.6
15.38.210.5+854<1%37%<1%
Leverkusen16 pts
76.4
2.4
0.9
14.69.410.0+1653<1%35%<1%
Hoffenheim19 pts
72.4
2.1
0.8
14.29.710.1+852<1%29%<1%
Gladbach18 pts
70.4
2.1
1.0
13.78.511.7-3501%19%<1%
Eintracht18 pts
70.0
1.8
0.7
13.29.211.6+0492%16%<1%
FC Augsburg16 pts
68.0
1.9
0.9
11.89.912.2+1454%9%<1%
Hannover 9618 pts
62.1
1.7
1.0
11.68.813.6-6446%6%<1%
Wolfsburg11 pts
68.5
1.9
0.9
9.314.010.7-44210%5%<1%
Hertha BSC14 pts
63.9
1.7
0.9
10.111.112.8-8419%4%<1%
VfB Stuttgart16 pts
61.1
1.7
1.0
11.06.516.5-144013%2%<1%
Mainz12 pts
64.4
1.7
0.9
10.19.114.8-113915%2%<1%
Hamburger SV10 pts
60.3
1.6
1.0
9.36.917.7-193531%<1%<1%
SC Freiburg8 pts
58.2
1.6
1.1
7.010.916.1-273245%<1%<1%
Werder Bremen5 pts
63.5
1.8
1.0
7.110.716.2-183243%<1%<1%
1. FC Cologne2 pts
59.4
1.7
1.1
6.27.820.1-302671%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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