Updated Feb. 16, 2019, at 7:55 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Bundesliga

2018-19 season

Germany

Updated Feb. 16, 2019, at 2:32 p.m.

Upcoming matches
2/17
Eintracht
47%
25%
Gladbach
28%
2/17
Leverkusen
71%
19%
Fortuna
11%
2/18
Nürnberg
13%
20%
Dortmund
67%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
2/16
Hertha BSC1
42%25%
Werder Bremen1
33%
HERBRE
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.20.4
Non-shot xG0.81.0
2/16
Hoffenheim3
74%16%
Hannover 960
10%
HOFHAN
Adjusted goals2.90.0
Shot-based xG3.20.5
Non-shot xG2.80.5
2/16
Wolfsburg3
56%24%
Mainz0
20%
WLFMNZ
Adjusted goals3.00.0
Shot-based xG2.40.6
Non-shot xG1.11.3
2/16
VfB Stuttgart1
20%24%
RB Leipzig3
55%
STURBL
Adjusted goals1.13.1
Shot-based xG1.51.2
Non-shot xG1.00.4
2/16
Schalke 040
57%24%
SC Freiburg0
19%
SCHFRE
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.71.2
Non-shot xG1.11.4
2/15
FC Augsburg2
9%14%
Bayern Munich3
77%
AUGBMU
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG0.72.3
Non-shot xG0.32.3
2/10
Fortuna3
42%27%
VfB Stuttgart0
31%
F95STU
Adjusted goals2.80.0
Shot-based xG1.61.3
Non-shot xG1.51.2
2/10
Werder Bremen4
49%24%
FC Augsburg0
27%
BREAUG
Adjusted goals3.90.0
Shot-based xG1.81.1
Non-shot xG1.11.1
2/9
Bayern Munich3
85%11%
Schalke 041
4%
BMUSCH
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG2.31.2
Non-shot xG2.70.4
2/9
RB Leipzig0
54%24%
Eintracht0
22%
RBLFRA
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.60.4
Non-shot xG1.80.8
2/9
Hannover 962
47%27%
Nürnberg0
27%
HANNUR
Adjusted goals1.50.0
Shot-based xG1.61.1
Non-shot xG1.61.1
2/9
SC Freiburg3
38%27%
Wolfsburg3
35%
FREWLF
Adjusted goals3.23.2
Shot-based xG1.01.9
Non-shot xG1.31.4
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Bundesligawin league
Bayern Munich48 pts
91.9
3.2
0.4
24.34.75.1+4877>99%67%
Dortmund50 pts
81.1
2.4
0.7
22.27.84.0+4174>99%32%
Gladbach42 pts
71.0
2.1
0.9
18.56.29.3+2262<1%67%<1%
RB Leipzig41 pts
79.0
2.1
0.6
17.88.08.3+2861<1%68%<1%
Leverkusen33 pts
76.8
2.3
0.8
16.75.911.3+1356<1%26%<1%
Eintracht33 pts
73.9
2.1
0.8
15.19.010.0+1854<1%18%<1%
Hoffenheim33 pts
75.8
2.5
1.0
13.911.68.5+1853<1%15%<1%
Wolfsburg35 pts
67.5
1.9
0.9
14.37.811.9+351<1%4%<1%
Hertha BSC32 pts
65.6
1.9
1.0
12.110.711.2-147<1%<1%<1%
Werder Bremen31 pts
68.8
2.0
1.0
12.29.811.9+247<1%<1%<1%
Schalke 0423 pts
70.2
1.9
0.8
10.88.115.1-541<1%<1%<1%
Fortuna25 pts
58.2
1.6
1.1
10.47.116.5-21382%<1%<1%
Mainz27 pts
55.6
1.7
1.2
9.88.715.5-23382%<1%<1%
SC Freiburg24 pts
60.1
1.8
1.1
8.611.813.6-13383%<1%<1%
FC Augsburg18 pts
62.2
1.8
1.1
7.98.917.2-123314%<1%<1%
VfB Stuttgart15 pts
56.3
1.7
1.2
7.25.820.9-392751%<1%<1%
Hannover 9614 pts
51.7
1.6
1.3
5.87.820.4-362570%<1%<1%
Nürnberg12 pts
50.9
1.5
1.2
4.28.920.9-432288%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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