Updated Sep. 26, 2017 at 4:51 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Bundesliga

2017-18 season

Germany

Updated Sep. 26, 2017 at 4:51 PM

Upcoming matches
9/29
Schalke 04
40%
26%
Leverkusen
35%
9/30
Wolfsburg
48%
28%
Mainz
24%
9/30
Gladbach
58%
25%
Hannover 96
18%
9/30
Eintracht
54%
27%
VfB Stuttgart
19%
9/30
FC Augsburg
18%
22%
Dortmund
60%
9/30
Hamburger SV
34%
27%
Werder Bremen
38%
10/1
SC Freiburg
30%
27%
Hoffenheim
42%
10/1
Hertha BSC
13%
20%
Bayern Munich
68%
10/1
1. FC Cologne
33%
27%
RB Leipzig
40%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
9/24
Leverkusen3
63%22%
Hamburger SV0
16%
LEVHSV
Adjusted goals2.80.0
Shot-based xG2.50.6
Non-shot xG1.90.9
9/24
Hannover 960
39%28%
1. FC Cologne0
33%
HANCOL
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.31.1
Non-shot xG1.50.5
9/23
Dortmund6
74%17%
Gladbach1
9%
DORMGB
Adjusted goals6.11.1
Shot-based xG5.21.2
Non-shot xG2.60.6
9/23
RB Leipzig2
52%27%
Eintracht1
20%
RBLFRA
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.40.8
Non-shot xG2.01.1
9/23
Hoffenheim2
49%26%
Schalke 040
25%
HOFSCH
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG0.91.1
Non-shot xG1.11.8
9/23
Mainz1
43%29%
Hertha BSC0
28%
MNZHER
Adjusted goals0.80.0
Shot-based xG1.10.6
Non-shot xG0.60.7
9/23
Werder Bremen0
54%24%
SC Freiburg0
21%
BREFRE
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.40.8
Non-shot xG1.40.7
9/23
VfB Stuttgart0
38%28%
FC Augsburg0
35%
STUAUG
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.50.4
Non-shot xG1.01.0
9/22
Bayern Munich2
86%11%
Wolfsburg2
3%
BMUWLF
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.80.6
Non-shot xG1.80.9
9/20
Hamburger SV0
16%21%
Dortmund3
63%
HSVDOR
Adjusted goals0.02.9
Shot-based xG0.23.1
Non-shot xG0.82.3
9/20
Mainz2
36%28%
Hoffenheim3
37%
MNZHOF
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.21.0
Non-shot xG1.41.6
9/20
SC Freiburg1
47%28%
Hannover 961
25%
FREHAN
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.61.4
Non-shot xG1.81.0
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Bundesligawin league
Bayern Munich13 pts
93.2
3.4
0.4
25.15.23.8+6180<1%>99%62%
Dortmund16 pts
89.2
3.0
0.5
23.26.24.5+5476<1%97%35%
Hoffenheim14 pts
74.3
2.1
0.8
15.79.29.1+1156<1%49%1%
RB Leipzig10 pts
74.4
2.1
0.8
14.48.111.5+7512%30%<1%
Leverkusen7 pts
75.7
2.3
0.9
14.57.711.8+10513%31%<1%
Schalke 049 pts
70.9
1.9
0.8
13.67.412.9+0484%20%<1%
Gladbach8 pts
69.6
2.1
0.9
12.39.012.7-5467%15%<1%
FC Augsburg11 pts
66.4
1.8
0.8
11.89.412.8-4457%12%<1%
Wolfsburg6 pts
68.8
1.8
0.8
11.010.712.4-44410%10%<1%
Eintracht7 pts
67.9
1.7
0.7
11.48.713.9-54311%9%<1%
Hertha BSC8 pts
66.3
1.6
0.8
10.910.013.0-54311%9%<1%
Werder Bremen3 pts
68.2
2.0
0.9
10.110.113.9-74017%6%<1%
Mainz6 pts
65.2
1.8
0.9
10.87.415.7-114017%5%<1%
Hannover 9612 pts
58.0
1.5
1.0
9.510.314.2-153919%4%<1%
VfB Stuttgart7 pts
58.9
1.6
1.1
9.28.016.8-213631%2%<1%
Hamburger SV6 pts
58.3
1.6
1.0
9.17.217.6-233535%1%<1%
SC Freiburg4 pts
60.7
1.7
1.0
7.711.215.0-203436%1%<1%
1. FC Cologne1 pt
63.3
1.8
1.0
8.48.317.3-223340%1%<1%
Forecast from
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