Updated Dec. 18, 2018, at 4:34 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Bundesliga

2018-19 season

Germany

Updated Dec. 18, 2018, at 4:34 p.m.

Upcoming matches
12/19
Schalke 04
41%
27%
Leverkusen
33%
12/19
Werder Bremen
29%
23%
Hoffenheim
49%
12/19
SC Freiburg
48%
25%
Hannover 96
27%
12/19
Mainz
24%
26%
Eintracht
50%
12/19
Bayern Munich
75%
16%
RB Leipzig
9%
12/21
Dortmund
60%
22%
Gladbach
18%
12/22
VfB Stuttgart
34%
29%
Schalke 04
36%
12/22
Leverkusen
57%
22%
Hertha BSC
20%
12/22
Hannover 96
44%
26%
Fortuna
30%
12/22
Nürnberg
39%
27%
SC Freiburg
33%
12/22
RB Leipzig
59%
22%
Werder Bremen
18%
12/22
Eintracht
22%
21%
Bayern Munich
57%
12/23
FC Augsburg
43%
27%
Wolfsburg
29%
12/23
Hoffenheim
64%
20%
Mainz
15%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
12/18
Fortuna2
15%20%
Dortmund1
64%
F95DOR
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.20.9
Non-shot xG0.31.7
12/18
Hertha BSC2
42%26%
FC Augsburg2
32%
HERAUG
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.00.9
Non-shot xG1.50.8
12/18
Wolfsburg2
49%28%
VfB Stuttgart0
23%
WLFSTU
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.60.4
Non-shot xG2.21.0
12/18
Gladbach2
66%20%
Nürnberg0
14%
MGBNUR
Adjusted goals1.70.0
Shot-based xG3.01.0
Non-shot xG2.11.0
12/16
Eintracht2
49%24%
Leverkusen1
27%
FRALEV
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.91.1
Non-shot xG2.00.9
12/16
RB Leipzig4
67%22%
Mainz1
11%
RBLMNZ
Adjusted goals3.61.1
Shot-based xG3.41.2
Non-shot xG2.31.2
12/15
Dortmund2
71%18%
Werder Bremen1
11%
DORBRE
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG3.00.6
Non-shot xG1.91.0
12/15
Hoffenheim0
49%22%
Gladbach0
29%
HOFMGB
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG4.30.5
Non-shot xG3.80.7
12/15
Fortuna2
40%27%
SC Freiburg0
34%
F95FRE
Adjusted goals1.90.0
Shot-based xG2.60.8
Non-shot xG2.01.3
12/15
FC Augsburg1
40%27%
Schalke 041
33%
AUGSCH
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.90.9
Non-shot xG1.11.4
12/15
Hannover 960
8%13%
Bayern Munich4
79%
HANBMU
Adjusted goals0.04.2
Shot-based xG0.53.6
Non-shot xG0.43.8
12/15
VfB Stuttgart2
41%28%
Hertha BSC1
32%
STUHER
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.31.1
Non-shot xG1.01.4
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Bundesligawin league
Bayern Munich30 pts
91.9
3.2
0.5
23.15.85.0+4975<1%>99%59%
Dortmund39 pts
81.9
2.4
0.6
22.06.95.1+4073<1%97%36%
Gladbach33 pts
71.2
2.1
0.9
17.37.39.4+2159<1%54%2%
RB Leipzig28 pts
77.2
2.2
0.7
16.68.68.8+2058<1%50%2%
Eintracht26 pts
76.0
2.2
0.8
16.86.410.8+2157<1%42%1%
Hoffenheim23 pts
75.9
2.5
1.0
15.49.19.5+1955<1%34%<1%
Wolfsburg25 pts
67.0
1.8
0.8
13.18.612.2+148<1%6%<1%
Leverkusen18 pts
72.7
2.2
0.9
13.47.513.1-1481%7%<1%
Hertha BSC24 pts
63.0
1.8
1.1
11.910.311.9-5461%4%<1%
Werder Bremen21 pts
64.8
1.9
1.1
12.37.514.2-5442%3%<1%
Schalke 0415 pts
71.0
1.9
0.7
11.48.014.6-4424%1%<1%
Mainz19 pts
60.6
1.7
1.0
10.28.715.1-15399%<1%<1%
SC Freiburg17 pts
59.4
1.7
1.1
9.69.714.8-133812%<1%<1%
FC Augsburg15 pts
64.6
1.9
1.1
9.310.414.3-63811%<1%<1%
VfB Stuttgart14 pts
57.9
1.6
1.1
8.96.518.6-303332%<1%<1%
Fortuna15 pts
56.0
1.7
1.2
8.67.218.2-263334%<1%<1%
Hannover 9610 pts
54.1
1.7
1.3
7.08.318.6-292956%<1%<1%
Nürnberg11 pts
52.7
1.5
1.2
6.09.318.7-372768%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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