Updated March 19, 2019, at 2:29 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Bundesliga

2018-19 season

Germany

Updated March 18, 2019, at 1:08 p.m.

Upcoming matches
3/29
Hoffenheim
40%
23%
Leverkusen
37%
3/30
Werder Bremen
59%
23%
Mainz
18%
3/30
Dortmund
66%
20%
Wolfsburg
14%
3/30
SC Freiburg
8%
14%
Bayern Munich
79%
3/30
Nürnberg
35%
27%
FC Augsburg
38%
3/30
Fortuna
27%
26%
Gladbach
47%
3/30
RB Leipzig
66%
22%
Hertha BSC
12%
3/31
Hannover 96
31%
26%
Schalke 04
43%
3/31
Eintracht
71%
19%
VfB Stuttgart
10%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
3/17
Bayern Munich6
93%6%
Mainz0
1%
BMUMNZ
Adjusted goals6.30.0
Shot-based xG2.80.4
Non-shot xG2.90.5
3/17
Eintracht1
83%13%
Nürnberg0
3%
FRANUR
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.30.7
Non-shot xG2.31.6
3/17
Leverkusen1
62%21%
Werder Bremen3
17%
LEVBRE
Adjusted goals1.12.6
Shot-based xG1.21.2
Non-shot xG3.20.8
3/16
Hertha BSC2
24%25%
Dortmund3
52%
HERDOR
Adjusted goals2.12.9
Shot-based xG2.02.2
Non-shot xG0.82.0
3/16
FC Augsburg3
56%23%
Hannover 961
21%
AUGHAN
Adjusted goals2.71.1
Shot-based xG1.61.1
Non-shot xG2.81.6
3/16
Wolfsburg5
52%26%
Fortuna2
22%
WLFF95
Adjusted goals4.82.1
Shot-based xG4.12.0
Non-shot xG1.01.6
3/16
VfB Stuttgart1
27%22%
Hoffenheim1
50%
STUHOF
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.82.6
Non-shot xG1.22.6
3/16
Schalke 040
23%26%
RB Leipzig1
51%
SCHRBL
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.41.6
Non-shot xG1.11.1
3/15
Gladbach1
62%22%
SC Freiburg1
16%
MGBFRE
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.10.5
Non-shot xG1.80.8
3/11
Fortuna0
24%25%
Eintracht3
51%
F95FRA
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.82.3
Non-shot xG0.71.4
3/10
Hannover 962
15%20%
Leverkusen3
65%
HANLEV
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG0.92.5
Non-shot xG1.32.0
3/10
Hoffenheim2
78%15%
Nürnberg1
7%
HOFNUR
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.60.8
Non-shot xG2.40.4
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Bundesligawin league
Bayern Munich60 pts
92.5
3.2
0.4
25.04.24.8+5679—>99%83%
Dortmund60 pts
81.3
2.4
0.7
22.47.74.0+4075—>99%17%
RB Leipzig49 pts
79.8
2.1
0.5
17.79.07.2+2762—78%<1%
Eintracht46 pts
77.2
2.2
0.7
16.98.88.4+2459—52%<1%
Gladbach47 pts
69.2
2.0
0.9
17.37.19.6+1659—42%<1%
Leverkusen42 pts
77.5
2.3
0.8
17.14.812.1+1256<1%19%<1%
Wolfsburg42 pts
66.5
1.9
1.0
15.07.911.1+553<1%4%<1%
Hoffenheim38 pts
75.5
2.5
1.0
12.912.88.3+1652<1%4%<1%
Werder Bremen39 pts
69.9
2.1
0.9
12.810.810.3+649<1%<1%<1%
Hertha BSC35 pts
66.1
1.9
1.0
11.99.912.3+045<1%<1%—
SC Freiburg31 pts
60.6
1.8
1.1
9.411.912.8-940<1%<1%—
Fortuna31 pts
59.3
1.7
1.1
11.25.917.0-2239<1%<1%—
Mainz30 pts
57.3
1.7
1.2
10.17.916.1-2338<1%<1%—
FC Augsburg25 pts
59.8
1.8
1.2
8.58.916.6-13344%<1%—
Schalke 0423 pts
63.4
1.8
1.0
8.76.918.3-19336%<1%—
VfB Stuttgart20 pts
58.4
1.7
1.2
7.37.019.7-332926%——
Hannover 9614 pts
48.7
1.6
1.4
4.86.722.5-442195%——
Nürnberg13 pts
51.1
1.4
1.2
3.68.921.6-402096%——
Forecast from
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