Updated Jan. 19, 2020, at 8:52 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Bundesliga

2019-20 season

Germany

Updated Jan. 18, 2020, at 2:25 p.m.

Upcoming matches
January 14-20
1/19
Hertha BSC
9%
14%
Bayern Munich
78%
1/19
SC Paderborn
21%
24%
Leverkusen
55%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
January 14-20
1/18
RB Leipzig3
82%13%
Union Berlin1
5%
RBLFCU
Adjusted goals2.81.1
Shot-based xG1.11.5
Non-shot xG1.91.1
1/18
Hoffenheim1
48%23%
Eintracht2
29%
HOFFRA
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.21.8
Non-shot xG1.41.1
1/18
Fortuna0
40%25%
Werder Bremen1
34%
F95BRE
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.80.7
Non-shot xG1.31.2
1/18
FC Augsburg3
22%22%
Dortmund5
57%
AUGDOR
Adjusted goals3.25.0
Shot-based xG1.53.2
Non-shot xG0.72.3
1/18
Mainz1
48%24%
SC Freiburg2
28%
MNZFRE
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.81.8
Non-shot xG2.71.0
1/18
1. FC Köln3
37%29%
Wolfsburg1
34%
COLWLF
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG1.51.9
Non-shot xG1.41.2
1/17
Schalke 042
35%26%
Gladbach0
40%
SCHMGB
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG2.20.9
Non-shot xG1.70.8
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Bundesligawin league
Bayern Munich33 pts
93.4
3.5
0.5
+5874<1%>99%59%
RB Leipzig40 pts
85.5
2.7
0.6
+4772<1%98%35%
Dortmund33 pts
83.1
2.6
0.7
+3363<1%80%4%
Gladbach35 pts
74.0
2.1
0.8
+1559<1%53%1%
Leverkusen28 pts
79.3
2.2
0.6
+956<1%34%<1%
Schalke 0433 pts
69.3
2.0
0.9
+754<1%20%<1%
Hoffenheim27 pts
69.5
2.1
1.0
-648<1%6%<1%
SC Freiburg29 pts
64.1
1.9
1.1
-148<1%5%<1%
Wolfsburg24 pts
73.0
1.9
0.7
-2461%3%<1%
Eintracht21 pts
71.1
2.1
0.9
-2433%<1%<1%
FC Augsburg23 pts
63.9
1.9
1.1
-11425%<1%<1%
Union Berlin20 pts
65.2
1.7
0.9
-113910%<1%<1%
Hertha BSC19 pts
65.3
1.8
1.0
-133911%<1%<1%
1. FC Köln20 pts
65.3
1.8
0.9
-173912%<1%<1%
Mainz18 pts
62.9
2.0
1.2
-233624%<1%<1%
Werder Bremen17 pts
63.9
1.9
1.1
-233626%<1%<1%
Fortuna15 pts
57.7
1.7
1.2
-313060%<1%<1%
SC Paderborn12 pts
56.4
1.7
1.2
-302873%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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