Updated March 23, 2020, at 6:26 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Bundesliga

2019-20 season

Germany

Updated March 12, 2020, at 5:59 p.m.

Upcoming matches
April 14-20
4/18
Werder Bremen
31%
27%
Wolfsburg
42%
4/18
Leverkusen
24%
21%
Bayern Munich
55%
4/18
Dortmund
78%
15%
Hertha BSC
7%
4/18
Eintracht
55%
24%
Mainz
22%
4/18
SC Freiburg
31%
25%
Gladbach
44%
4/18
Union Berlin
44%
28%
Schalke 04
28%
4/18
FC Augsburg
36%
26%
1. FC Köln
39%
4/18
Fortuna
34%
25%
Hoffenheim
41%
4/18
RB Leipzig
85%
11%
SC Paderborn
4%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
March 10-16
3/11
Gladbach2
58%23%
1. FC Köln1
19%
MGBCOL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.11.6
Non-shot xG1.91.5
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Bundesligawin league
Bayern Munich55 pts
94.4
3.5
0.4
+6577—>99%88%
RB Leipzig50 pts
88.1
2.6
0.4
+4970—98%6%
Dortmund51 pts
85.4
2.6
0.6
+4368—95%5%
Leverkusen47 pts
82.9
2.4
0.6
+2163—54%<1%
Gladbach49 pts
75.9
2.2
0.8
+2163—54%<1%
Schalke 0437 pts
66.3
1.8
0.9
-548<1%<1%<1%
Wolfsburg36 pts
73.9
2.0
0.7
+348<1%<1%<1%
Hoffenheim35 pts
67.5
2.1
1.1
-947<1%<1%<1%
1. FC Köln32 pts
71.9
2.1
0.9
-545<1%<1%<1%
SC Freiburg36 pts
62.5
1.8
1.1
-845<1%<1%<1%
Eintracht28 pts
70.5
2.0
0.9
-442<1%<1%<1%
Union Berlin30 pts
64.6
1.8
1.0
-1241<1%<1%<1%
FC Augsburg27 pts
62.2
1.9
1.1
-18384%<1%—
Hertha BSC28 pts
62.0
1.8
1.1
-22375%<1%<1%
Mainz26 pts
61.6
1.9
1.2
-253512%<1%—
Fortuna22 pts
57.3
1.7
1.2
-313149%<1%—
Werder Bremen18 pts
59.9
1.7
1.1
-332868%——
SC Paderborn16 pts
56.0
1.7
1.2
-312490%——
Forecast from
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