Updated Sept. 16, 2019, at 12:15 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

league-logo

Bundesliga

2019-20 season

Germany

Updated Sept. 15, 2019, at 1:50 p.m.

Upcoming matches
September 17-23
9/20
Schalke 04
53%
25%
Mainz
22%
9/21
Leverkusen
77%
16%
Union Berlin
7%
9/21
Hertha BSC
56%
25%
SC Paderborn
19%
9/21
SC Freiburg
49%
25%
FC Augsburg
27%
9/21
Bayern Munich
90%
8%
1. FC Köln
2%
9/21
Werder Bremen
28%
25%
RB Leipzig
47%
9/22
Gladbach
55%
24%
Fortuna
21%
9/22
Eintracht
30%
25%
Dortmund
45%
9/23
Wolfsburg
44%
25%
Hoffenheim
31%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
September 10-16
9/15
SC Paderborn1
36%29%
Schalke 045
35%
PADSCH
Adjusted goals1.14.6
Shot-based xG1.12.4
Non-shot xG0.82.2
9/15
Hoffenheim0
64%21%
SC Freiburg3
16%
HOFFRE
Adjusted goals0.03.2
Shot-based xG1.11.5
Non-shot xG2.51.6
9/14
RB Leipzig1
25%24%
Bayern Munich1
52%
RBLBMU
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.71.9
Non-shot xG0.81.8
9/14
FC Augsburg2
31%26%
Eintracht1
43%
AUGFRA
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.71.0
Non-shot xG0.92.5
9/14
Mainz2
46%25%
Hertha BSC1
29%
MNZHER
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.02.4
Non-shot xG0.91.8
9/14
Union Berlin1
35%27%
Werder Bremen2
38%
FCUBRE
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG2.12.1
Non-shot xG1.21.2
9/14
Dortmund4
48%24%
Leverkusen0
28%
DORLEV
Adjusted goals3.40.0
Shot-based xG3.60.9
Non-shot xG1.10.6
9/14
1. FC Köln0
37%28%
Gladbach1
35%
COLMGB
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.71.5
Non-shot xG1.51.6
9/13
Fortuna1
38%27%
Wolfsburg1
35%
F95WLF
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.62.5
Non-shot xG0.91.4
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Bundesligawin league
Bayern Munich8 pts
93.6
3.2
0.3
+6480<1%99%74%
Dortmund9 pts
84.4
2.6
0.6
+3365<1%73%11%
RB Leipzig10 pts
83.4
2.3
0.5
+2965<1%73%9%
Leverkusen7 pts
80.9
2.4
0.7
+1659<1%51%4%
Wolfsburg8 pts
71.9
2.0
0.8
+2483%16%<1%
Eintracht6 pts
73.3
2.0
0.8
+2493%16%<1%
Gladbach7 pts
71.7
2.0
0.8
+1493%15%<1%
Hoffenheim4 pts
73.2
2.3
0.9
+1484%15%<1%
Schalke 047 pts
71.2
1.9
0.8
+3484%15%<1%
Werder Bremen6 pts
69.3
2.0
1.0
-6457%9%<1%
SC Freiburg9 pts
63.8
1.8
1.0
-6439%6%<1%
Hertha BSC1 pt
66.6
1.9
1.0
-133917%4%<1%
Mainz3 pts
64.3
1.9
1.1
-183918%3%<1%
Fortuna4 pts
63.4
1.8
1.1
-133819%3%<1%
1. FC Köln3 pts
63.1
1.7
0.9
-173626%1%<1%
FC Augsburg4 pts
58.8
1.8
1.3
-233530%1%<1%
Union Berlin4 pts
58.3
1.6
1.1
-243336%<1%<1%
SC Paderborn1 pt
56.0
1.6
1.2
-302854%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

Comments