Updated Oct. 28, 2020, at 7:58 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Bundesliga

2020-21

Germany

Updated Oct. 27, 2020, at 5:59 p.m.

Upcoming matches
October 27 - November 2
10/30
Schalke 04
37%
28%
VfB Stuttgart
35%
10/31
Arminia
15%
23%
Dortmund
63%
10/31
1. FC Köln
7%
12%
Bayern Munich
81%
10/31
Eintracht
54%
25%
Werder Bremen
21%
10/31
FC Augsburg
43%
27%
Mainz
30%
10/31
Gladbach
32%
25%
RB Leipzig
43%
11/1
SC Freiburg
24%
25%
Leverkusen
51%
11/1
Hertha BSC
38%
27%
Wolfsburg
35%
11/2
Hoffenheim
56%
24%
Union Berlin
19%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
October 20-26
10/26
Leverkusen3
64%23%
FC Augsburg1
13%
LEVAUG
Adjusted goals2.61.1
Shot-based xG2.80.3
Non-shot xG1.10.4
10/25
Werder Bremen1
31%25%
Hoffenheim1
44%
BREHOF
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.21.1
Non-shot xG0.31.0
10/25
Wolfsburg2
55%27%
Arminia1
18%
WLFDSC
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.70.8
Non-shot xG1.31.1
10/24
Dortmund3
81%14%
Schalke 040
5%
DORSCH
Adjusted goals3.00.0
Shot-based xG1.50.2
Non-shot xG2.40.2
10/24
RB Leipzig2
68%20%
Hertha BSC1
12%
RBLHER
Adjusted goals1.91.1
Shot-based xG2.70.7
Non-shot xG2.90.7
10/24
Bayern Munich5
83%12%
Eintracht0
6%
BMUFRA
Adjusted goals4.70.0
Shot-based xG4.00.6
Non-shot xG2.40.8
10/24
Mainz2
24%24%
Gladbach3
51%
MNZMGB
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.83.1
Non-shot xG1.82.2
10/24
Union Berlin1
43%28%
SC Freiburg1
30%
FCUFRE
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.30.3
Non-shot xG0.80.7
10/23
VfB Stuttgart1
43%27%
1. FC Köln1
31%
STUCOL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.72.4
Non-shot xG0.70.9
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Bundesligawin league
Bayern Munich12 pts
94.3
3.5
0.4
+7383<1%>99%78%
RB Leipzig13 pts
85.9
2.5
0.5
+3368<1%82%11%
Dortmund12 pts
85.6
2.4
0.5
+3267<1%78%8%
Leverkusen9 pts
79.2
2.2
0.6
+1457<1%40%1%
Gladbach8 pts
76.5
2.3
0.8
+854<1%29%<1%
Hoffenheim7 pts
73.7
2.2
0.9
+9521%23%<1%
Eintracht8 pts
72.4
2.1
0.9
+1502%18%<1%
Wolfsburg7 pts
72.2
1.9
0.7
-1464%10%<1%
Hertha BSC3 pts
67.7
2.0
1.0
-64110%5%<1%
VfB Stuttgart8 pts
63.5
1.8
1.0
-104012%3%<1%
Werder Bremen8 pts
64.0
1.8
1.0
-144012%3%<1%
FC Augsburg7 pts
62.4
1.7
1.0
-124013%3%<1%
SC Freiburg6 pts
63.3
1.8
1.0
-163915%3%<1%
Union Berlin6 pts
64.8
1.7
0.9
-113815%2%<1%
1. FC Köln2 pts
64.0
1.8
1.0
-173524%1%<1%
Arminia4 pts
58.8
1.6
1.0
-223332%<1%<1%
Mainz0 pts
58.8
1.8
1.2
-293043%<1%<1%
Schalke 041 pt
56.0
1.6
1.1
-362949%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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