Updated May 21, 2019, at 4:58 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Bundesliga

2018-19 season

Germany

Updated May 18, 2019, at 11:28 a.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
May
5/18
Fortuna2
48%25%
Hannover 961
27%
F95HAN
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.90.9
Non-shot xG1.91.5
5/18
Bayern Munich5
82%13%
Eintracht1
5%
BMUFRA
Adjusted goals5.01.1
Shot-based xG4.81.1
Non-shot xG3.50.3
5/18
Mainz4
34%22%
Hoffenheim2
44%
MNZHOF
Adjusted goals2.92.1
Shot-based xG3.01.6
Non-shot xG2.81.5
5/18
SC Freiburg5
42%28%
Nürnberg1
30%
FRENUR
Adjusted goals5.31.1
Shot-based xG1.11.0
Non-shot xG1.51.2
5/18
Hertha BSC1
19%21%
Leverkusen5
60%
HERLEV
Adjusted goals1.14.8
Shot-based xG1.02.1
Non-shot xG0.51.0
5/18
Gladbach0
42%25%
Dortmund2
33%
MGBDOR
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.62.1
Non-shot xG0.72.6
5/18
Wolfsburg8
46%25%
FC Augsburg1
30%
WLFAUG
Adjusted goals7.51.1
Shot-based xG4.10.8
Non-shot xG1.50.9
5/18
Werder Bremen2
35%26%
RB Leipzig1
39%
BRERBL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.21.9
Non-shot xG0.91.1
5/18
Schalke 040
53%25%
VfB Stuttgart0
22%
SCHSTU
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.80.7
Non-shot xG1.11.0
5/12
Eintracht0
65%20%
Mainz2
14%
FRAMNZ
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG1.91.3
Non-shot xG2.01.4
5/11
RB Leipzig0
23%23%
Bayern Munich0
55%
RBLBMU
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.62.0
Non-shot xG0.81.3
5/11
Hoffenheim0
60%20%
Werder Bremen1
20%
HOFBRE
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG2.30.8
Non-shot xG2.20.9
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Bundesligawin league
Bayern Munich78 pts
93.5
3.3
0.4
24.06.04.0+5678
Dortmund76 pts
79.0
2.4
0.7
23.07.04.0+3776
RB Leipzig66 pts
79.8
2.2
0.6
19.09.06.0+3466
Leverkusen58 pts
81.8
2.5
0.7
18.04.012.0+1758
Wolfsburg55 pts
68.5
2.0
0.9
16.07.011.0+1255
Gladbach55 pts
68.3
1.9
0.9
16.07.011.0+1355
Eintracht54 pts
71.4
2.0
0.9
15.09.010.0+1254
Werder Bremen53 pts
68.9
2.0
1.0
14.011.09.0+953
Hoffenheim51 pts
76.0
2.6
1.1
13.012.09.0+1851
Fortuna44 pts
62.3
1.9
1.1
13.05.016.0-1644
Mainz43 pts
65.3
2.0
1.1
12.07.015.0-1143
Hertha BSC43 pts
61.9
1.9
1.1
11.010.013.0-843
SC Freiburg36 pts
56.4
1.7
1.2
8.012.014.0-1536
Schalke 0433 pts
64.6
1.8
0.9
8.09.017.0-1833
FC Augsburg32 pts
54.1
1.8
1.4
8.08.018.0-2032
VfB Stuttgart28 pts
57.2
1.6
1.1
7.07.020.0-382827%
Hannover 9621 pts
50.5
1.6
1.3
5.06.023.0-4021
Nürnberg19 pts
51.8
1.5
1.2
3.010.021.0-4219
Forecast from
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