Updated Jan. 22, 2021, at 4:57 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

league-logo

Bundesliga

2020-21

Germany

Updated Jan. 20, 2021, at 4:28 p.m.

Upcoming matches
January 19-25
1/22
Gladbach
32%
24%
Dortmund
44%
1/23
Arminia
24%
26%
Eintracht
50%
1/23
Leverkusen
51%
26%
Wolfsburg
23%
1/23
SC Freiburg
43%
25%
VfB Stuttgart
32%
1/23
Mainz
17%
22%
RB Leipzig
60%
1/23
FC Augsburg
30%
30%
Union Berlin
40%
1/23
Hertha BSC
45%
29%
Werder Bremen
26%
1/24
Schalke 04
6%
12%
Bayern Munich
82%
1/24
Hoffenheim
53%
25%
1. FC Köln
22%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
January 19-25
1/20
RB Leipzig1
62%23%
Union Berlin0
15%
RBLFCU
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.40.2
Non-shot xG1.50.3
1/20
FC Augsburg0
8%14%
Bayern Munich1
79%
AUGBMU
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.22.1
Non-shot xG0.92.1
1/20
SC Freiburg2
36%25%
Eintracht2
38%
FREFRA
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.01.4
Non-shot xG0.92.8
1/20
Arminia3
28%28%
VfB Stuttgart0
44%
DSCSTU
Adjusted goals2.80.0
Shot-based xG1.81.6
Non-shot xG1.22.0
1/20
Schalke 041
36%28%
1. FC Köln2
35%
SCHCOL
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.21.7
Non-shot xG1.50.5
1/19
Mainz0
28%25%
Wolfsburg2
47%
MNZWLF
Adjusted goals0.01.9
Shot-based xG0.61.0
Non-shot xG0.70.8
1/19
Hertha BSC0
41%26%
Hoffenheim3
33%
HERHOF
Adjusted goals0.02.7
Shot-based xG1.31.1
Non-shot xG1.30.6
1/19
Leverkusen2
38%26%
Dortmund1
36%
LEVDOR
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.71.3
Non-shot xG1.32.6
1/19
Gladbach1
62%22%
Werder Bremen0
16%
MGBBRE
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.60.8
Non-shot xG2.11.0
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Bundesligawin league
Bayern Munich39 pts
91.0
3.2
0.5
+5178<1%>99%86%
RB Leipzig35 pts
84.7
2.4
0.5
+2767<1%86%9%
Dortmund29 pts
84.8
2.6
0.6
+2662<1%68%2%
Leverkusen32 pts
81.3
2.2
0.6
+2461<1%65%2%
Wolfsburg29 pts
75.5
2.1
0.7
+1055<1%24%<1%
Gladbach28 pts
76.5
2.3
0.8
+954<1%23%<1%
Eintracht27 pts
75.4
2.2
0.8
+853<1%18%<1%
Union Berlin28 pts
70.5
1.8
0.8
+950<1%9%<1%
SC Freiburg24 pts
69.8
2.0
0.9
+147<1%4%<1%
VfB Stuttgart22 pts
70.1
2.1
1.0
+445<1%2%<1%
Hoffenheim19 pts
70.0
2.1
1.0
-6422%<1%<1%
Hertha BSC17 pts
67.8
1.8
0.8
-9385%<1%<1%
Werder Bremen18 pts
64.9
1.7
0.9
-12376%<1%<1%
FC Augsburg19 pts
59.4
1.6
1.0
-203511%<1%<1%
Arminia17 pts
59.1
1.5
0.9
-233320%<1%<1%
1. FC Köln15 pts
60.0
1.6
1.0
-233224%<1%<1%
Mainz7 pts
59.1
1.7
1.1
-322472%<1%<1%
Schalke 047 pts
52.9
1.6
1.3
-462188%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

Comments