Updated July 6, 2020, at 4:57 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 38 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Bundesliga

2019-20 season

Germany

Updated June 27, 2020, at 11:28 a.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
June 23-29
6/27
FC Augsburg1
26%25%
RB Leipzig2
50%
AUGRBL
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.21.6
Non-shot xG0.41.7
6/27
Union Berlin3
35%29%
Fortuna0
37%
FCUF95
Adjusted goals2.60.0
Shot-based xG1.01.2
Non-shot xG0.92.4
6/27
SC Freiburg4
41%27%
Schalke 040
32%
FRESCH
Adjusted goals4.20.0
Shot-based xG1.70.8
Non-shot xG1.41.8
6/27
Eintracht3
50%24%
SC Paderborn2
26%
FRAPAD
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG1.71.7
Non-shot xG1.70.9
6/27
Dortmund0
49%24%
Hoffenheim4
27%
DORHOF
Adjusted goals0.04.2
Shot-based xG0.23.5
Non-shot xG1.22.7
6/27
Gladbach2
62%21%
Hertha BSC1
16%
MGBHER
Adjusted goals1.91.1
Shot-based xG2.80.7
Non-shot xG1.70.6
6/27
Wolfsburg0
25%22%
Bayern Munich4
52%
WLFBMU
Adjusted goals0.03.6
Shot-based xG0.92.9
Non-shot xG0.51.2
6/27
Leverkusen1
62%21%
Mainz0
17%
LEVMNZ
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.80.3
Non-shot xG2.00.7
6/27
Werder Bremen6
38%27%
1. FC Köln1
35%
BRECOL
Adjusted goals6.31.1
Shot-based xG3.20.9
Non-shot xG1.50.5
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Bundesligawin league
Bayern Munich82 pts
94.1
3.3
0.3
+6882
Dortmund69 pts
83.3
2.4
0.6
+4369
RB Leipzig66 pts
85.8
2.5
0.5
+4466
Gladbach65 pts
78.9
2.3
0.7
+2665
Leverkusen63 pts
80.6
2.4
0.7
+1763
Hoffenheim52 pts
74.1
2.3
1.0
+052
Wolfsburg49 pts
74.9
2.0
0.7
+249
SC Freiburg48 pts
65.4
2.0
1.1
+148
Eintracht45 pts
71.9
2.2
0.9
-145
Union Berlin41 pts
62.5
1.7
1.0
-1741
Hertha BSC41 pts
66.9
1.9
1.0
-1141
Schalke 0439 pts
59.6
1.6
1.0
-2039
Mainz37 pts
64.9
1.9
1.0
-2137
FC Augsburg36 pts
61.4
1.7
1.0
-1836
1. FC Köln36 pts
64.4
1.9
1.1
-1836
Werder Bremen31 pts
65.0
1.8
1.0
-273117%
Fortuna30 pts
59.7
1.7
1.1
-3130
SC Paderborn20 pts
53.6
1.6
1.3
-3720
Forecast from
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