Updated Jul. 20, 2017 at 12:40 AM

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for nine leagues, updated after each match.

Bundesliga
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
5/20
Hoffenheim0
71%19%
FC Augsburg0
10%
HOFAUG
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.90.3
Non-shot xG1.71.0
5/20
Ingolstadt1
39%27%
Schalke 041
35%
INGSCH
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.60.9
Non-shot xG1.71.0
5/20
Hamburger SV2
35%28%
Wolfsburg1
37%
HSVWLF
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG0.71.4
Non-shot xG0.51.5
5/20
Bayern Munich4
95%4%
SC Freiburg1
<1%
BMUFRE
Adjusted goals3.11.1
Shot-based xG4.41.7
Non-shot xG4.31.5
5/20
Eintracht2
31%28%
RB Leipzig2
41%
FRARBL
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.91.5
Non-shot xG1.20.9
5/20
Hertha BSC2
40%28%
Leverkusen6
33%
HERLEV
Adjusted goals2.15.5
Shot-based xG3.84.1
Non-shot xG1.61.5
5/20
Dortmund4
79%14%
Werder Bremen3
8%
DORBRE
Adjusted goals4.23.2
Shot-based xG4.72.0
Non-shot xG3.31.6
5/20
1. FC Cologne2
41%27%
Mainz0
32%
COLMNZ
Adjusted goals1.70.0
Shot-based xG1.10.2
Non-shot xG1.00.4
5/20
Gladbach2
70%19%
Darmstadt 982
10%
MGBDRM
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.40.8
Non-shot xG2.71.0
5/13
RB Leipzig4
20%23%
Bayern Munich5
57%
RBLBMU
Adjusted goals4.25.3
Shot-based xG1.84.0
Non-shot xG1.42.2
5/13
FC Augsburg1
19%21%
Dortmund1
60%
AUGDOR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.32.0
Non-shot xG0.72.2
5/13
Darmstadt 980
34%28%
Hertha BSC2
37%
DRMHER
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG1.01.6
Non-shot xG1.01.3
See all▾
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsrelegatedrele-gatedqualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Bundesligawin league
Bayern Munich82 pts
3.1
0.7
25.07.02.0+6782—✓✓
RB Leipzig67 pts
2.0
1.0
20.07.07.0+2767—✓—
Dortmund64 pts
2.5
0.9
18.010.06.0+3264—✓—
Hoffenheim62 pts
1.9
1.0
16.014.04.0+2762—✓—
1. FC Cologne49 pts
1.5
1.1
12.013.09.0+949———
Hertha BSC49 pts
1.4
1.2
15.04.015.0-449———
SC Freiburg48 pts
1.5
1.3
14.06.014.0-1848———
Gladbach45 pts
1.7
1.1
12.09.013.0-445———
Werder Bremen45 pts
2.0
1.4
13.06.015.0-345———
Schalke 0443 pts
1.6
1.1
11.010.013.0+543———
Eintracht42 pts
1.4
1.1
11.09.014.0-742———
Leverkusen41 pts
2.0
1.2
11.08.015.0-241———
FC Augsburg38 pts
1.3
1.2
9.011.014.0-1638———
Hamburger SV38 pts
1.3
1.3
10.08.016.0-2838———
Mainz37 pts
1.6
1.1
10.07.017.0-1137———
Wolfsburg37 pts
1.6
1.1
10.07.017.0-183749%——
Ingolstadt32 pts
1.5
1.2
8.08.018.0-2132✓——
Darmstadt 9825 pts
1.2
1.5
7.04.023.0-3525✓——
Forecast from

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