Updated Oct. 14, 2018 at 7:54 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Bundesliga

2018-19 season

Germany

Updated Oct. 7, 2018, at 1:52 p.m.

Upcoming matches
10/19
Eintracht
55%
26%
Fortuna
19%
10/20
VfB Stuttgart
25%
25%
Dortmund
51%
10/20
Leverkusen
61%
22%
Hannover 96
17%
10/20
Wolfsburg
11%
18%
Bayern Munich
72%
10/20
Nürnberg
28%
26%
Hoffenheim
47%
10/20
FC Augsburg
32%
24%
RB Leipzig
44%
10/20
Schalke 04
47%
28%
Werder Bremen
25%
10/21
Hertha BSC
50%
26%
SC Freiburg
24%
10/21
Gladbach
56%
25%
Mainz
19%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
10/7
RB Leipzig6
66%21%
Nürnberg0
13%
RBLNUR
Adjusted goals6.30.0
Shot-based xG2.90.4
Non-shot xG1.30.5
10/7
Hoffenheim1
51%25%
Eintracht2
24%
HOFFRA
Adjusted goals0.82.1
Shot-based xG2.40.8
Non-shot xG3.20.6
10/7
SC Freiburg0
29%24%
Leverkusen0
47%
FRELEV
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.60.6
Non-shot xG0.70.9
10/6
Bayern Munich0
84%11%
Gladbach3
5%
BMUMGB
Adjusted goals0.02.7
Shot-based xG1.00.6
Non-shot xG1.50.5
10/6
Fortuna0
33%29%
Schalke 042
38%
F95SCH
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.61.6
Non-shot xG0.70.9
10/6
Mainz0
40%29%
Hertha BSC0
31%
MNZHER
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.70.8
Non-shot xG2.01.4
10/6
Hannover 963
42%28%
VfB Stuttgart1
30%
HANSTU
Adjusted goals2.61.1
Shot-based xG1.50.8
Non-shot xG1.31.3
10/6
Dortmund4
67%20%
FC Augsburg3
13%
DORAUG
Adjusted goals4.23.2
Shot-based xG2.93.3
Non-shot xG1.51.4
10/5
Werder Bremen2
51%26%
Wolfsburg0
23%
BREWLF
Adjusted goals1.70.0
Shot-based xG0.90.5
Non-shot xG0.80.9
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Bundesligawin league
Bayern Munich13 pts
90.9
2.9
0.4
23.55.55.0+4976<1%98%70%
Dortmund17 pts
80.1
2.4
0.7
19.48.06.6+3466<1%83%19%
RB Leipzig14 pts
75.6
2.3
0.9
16.68.49.1+1858<1%54%5%
Gladbach14 pts
68.8
2.1
1.0
15.08.510.5+9541%35%2%
Leverkusen7 pts
72.9
2.2
0.9
14.07.612.5+2503%22%<1%
Hoffenheim7 pts
72.0
2.2
0.9
13.77.612.7+6494%21%<1%
Werder Bremen14 pts
66.8
1.9
0.9
13.28.911.8+1493%19%<1%
Hertha BSC14 pts
63.3
1.8
1.0
12.98.912.2-1484%16%<1%
Eintracht10 pts
67.8
1.8
0.9
13.08.112.9+0475%15%<1%
Schalke 046 pts
71.7
1.8
0.7
12.67.314.1-1457%11%<1%
FC Augsburg8 pts
65.8
2.0
1.1
11.88.713.5-1449%10%<1%
Wolfsburg9 pts
62.3
1.7
1.0
10.19.914.0-114016%4%<1%
Mainz9 pts
62.8
1.6
0.9
9.810.213.9-104017%4%<1%
VfB Stuttgart5 pts
63.7
1.7
0.9
9.69.115.3-143823%3%<1%
SC Freiburg8 pts
58.8
1.7
1.1
9.48.715.9-183726%2%<1%
Hannover 965 pts
60.1
1.8
1.1
9.18.716.2-163629%2%<1%
Nürnberg8 pts
56.4
1.6
1.1
8.68.916.4-253536%1%<1%
Fortuna5 pts
56.0
1.6
1.1
7.78.717.6-233246%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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