Updated 9:36 PM EDT | Mar 25, 2017

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for nine leagues, updated after each match.

Bundesliga
Upcoming
3/31
Hertha BSC
40%
28%
Hoffenheim
32%
4/1
Schalke 04
26%
25%
Dortmund
49%
4/1
SC Freiburg
44%
25%
Werder Bremen
31%
4/1
Bayern Munich
92%
6%
FC Augsburg
1%
4/1
Hamburger SV
38%
28%
1. FC Cologne
34%
4/1
RB Leipzig
72%
19%
Darmstadt 98
9%
4/1
Eintracht
39%
30%
Gladbach
31%
4/2
Ingolstadt
46%
27%
Mainz
27%
4/2
Leverkusen
54%
24%
Wolfsburg
22%
4/4
Werder Bremen
36%
27%
Schalke 04
37%
4/4
1. FC Cologne
46%
29%
Eintracht
25%
4/4
Dortmund
88%
9%
Hamburger SV
2%
4/4
Hoffenheim
17%
22%
Bayern Munich
62%
See all
Completed
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
3/19
Gladbach0
16%22%
Bayern Munich1
62%
MGBBMU
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.92.7
Non-shot xG1.02.9
3/19
Mainz0
36%28%
Schalke 041
36%
MNZSCH
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.81.1
Non-shot xG1.70.6
3/18
Eintracht0
52%27%
Hamburger SV0
21%
FRAHSV
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.10.1
Non-shot xG0.60.4
3/18
Hoffenheim1
46%24%
Leverkusen0
29%
HOFLEV
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.60.9
Non-shot xG1.41.3
3/18
FC Augsburg1
42%27%
SC Freiburg1
31%
AUGFRE
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.01.1
Non-shot xG1.50.5
3/18
1. FC Cologne4
41%30%
Hertha BSC2
29%
COLHER
Adjusted goals4.22.1
Shot-based xG0.81.7
Non-shot xG0.31.6
3/18
Wolfsburg1
65%22%
Darmstadt 980
13%
WLFDRM
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.31.0
Non-shot xG2.00.6
3/18
Werder Bremen3
33%26%
RB Leipzig0
41%
BRERBL
Adjusted goals2.70.0
Shot-based xG1.10.5
Non-shot xG1.31.3
3/17
Dortmund1
88%9%
Ingolstadt0
3%
DORING
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.61.5
Non-shot xG1.31.5
3/12
Hamburger SV2
31%27%
Gladbach1
42%
HSVMGB
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.51.8
Non-shot xG2.41.1
3/12
Schalke 043
55%27%
FC Augsburg0
19%
SCHAUG
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG3.11.1
Non-shot xG1.90.7
3/11
Ingolstadt2
38%29%
1. FC Cologne2
33%
INGCOL
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.61.2
Non-shot xG3.70.5
See all
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsrelegatedrele-gatedqualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Bundesligawin league
Bayern Munich62 pts
2.9
0.5
25.96.31.8+6784>99%>99%
Dortmund46 pts
2.5
0.9
18.78.66.7+3865<1%99%<1%
RB Leipzig49 pts
1.7
1.0
18.86.39.0+1763<1%95%<1%
Hoffenheim45 pts
1.8
1.0
14.514.25.3+2158<1%72%<1%
Hertha BSC40 pts
1.5
1.0
15.66.511.9+653<1%24%<1%
1. FC Cologne37 pts
1.5
1.1
12.212.39.5+749<1%5%<1%
Eintracht36 pts
1.3
1.0
13.08.412.6-347<1%2%<1%
SC Freiburg35 pts
1.5
1.3
12.97.114.0-1446<1%<1%<1%
Schalke 0433 pts
1.6
1.0
12.78.412.9+747<1%2%
Gladbach32 pts
1.6
1.0
12.57.414.1-345<1%<1%
Leverkusen31 pts
1.9
1.1
12.66.215.1-244<1%<1%
Wolfsburg29 pts
1.5
1.1
10.97.415.8-13409%<1%
Werder Bremen29 pts
1.6
1.3
10.87.216.0-134010%<1%
Mainz29 pts
1.4
1.2
10.67.316.1-123911%<1%
FC Augsburg29 pts
1.3
1.2
9.110.214.7-173720%<1%
Hamburger SV27 pts
1.4
1.2
9.78.216.1-263724%<1%
Ingolstadt19 pts
1.5
1.2
8.26.419.4-193174%<1%
Darmstadt 9815 pts
1.1
1.4
5.65.023.4-4022>99%
Forecast from

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