Updated Apr. 21, 2018 at 4:44 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Bundesliga

2017-18 season

Germany

Updated Apr. 21, 2018, at 2:23 p.m.

Upcoming matches
4/22
FC Augsburg
49%
28%
Mainz
23%
4/22
1. FC Köln
29%
26%
Schalke 04
45%
See all▾
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
4/21
Dortmund4
43%25%
Leverkusen0
32%
DORLEV
Adjusted goals4.00.0
Shot-based xG3.40.5
Non-shot xG2.11.5
4/21
RB Leipzig2
43%25%
Hoffenheim5
32%
RBLHOF
Adjusted goals2.14.8
Shot-based xG1.43.1
Non-shot xG1.90.8
4/21
Hamburger SV1
45%29%
SC Freiburg0
26%
HSVFRE
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.80.9
Non-shot xG1.81.0
4/21
Hannover 960
10%16%
Bayern Munich3
74%
HANBMU
Adjusted goals0.02.6
Shot-based xG0.31.8
Non-shot xG0.42.3
4/21
Eintracht0
50%28%
Hertha BSC3
21%
FRAHER
Adjusted goals0.02.3
Shot-based xG1.21.4
Non-shot xG0.90.3
4/21
VfB Stuttgart2
36%29%
Werder Bremen0
35%
STUBRE
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG2.20.4
Non-shot xG1.61.2
4/20
Gladbach3
49%27%
Wolfsburg0
24%
MGBWLF
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG1.90.3
Non-shot xG2.30.4
4/16
Mainz2
46%29%
SC Freiburg0
25%
MNZFRE
Adjusted goals1.90.0
Shot-based xG2.20.5
Non-shot xG1.01.0
4/15
Werder Bremen1
44%25%
RB Leipzig1
31%
BRERBL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.01.0
Non-shot xG1.31.1
4/15
Schalke 042
41%26%
Dortmund0
33%
SCHDOR
Adjusted goals1.80.0
Shot-based xG1.01.2
Non-shot xG1.31.4
4/14
Bayern Munich5
85%11%
Gladbach1
4%
BMUMGB
Adjusted goals4.91.1
Shot-based xG3.30.2
Non-shot xG3.40.3
4/14
Hoffenheim2
62%22%
Hamburger SV0
16%
HOFHSV
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG2.80.4
Non-shot xG2.01.1
See all▾
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Bundesligawin league
Bayern Munich78 pts
93.8
3.4
0.4
27.53.33.1+6986—✓✓
Schalke 0455 pts
74.9
2.0
0.7
17.88.18.1+1662—99%—
Dortmund54 pts
79.6
2.5
0.8
16.49.77.9+2159—93%—
Leverkusen51 pts
77.0
2.3
0.8
15.69.78.7+1657—73%—
Hoffenheim49 pts
76.5
2.4
0.9
14.410.78.8+1754—31%—
RB Leipzig47 pts
71.0
2.2
1.0
14.38.811.0+152—3%—
Eintracht46 pts
68.7
1.8
0.8
13.87.612.6-149—<1%—
Gladbach43 pts
69.2
2.1
1.0
13.27.813.0-647—<1%—
Hertha BSC42 pts
67.9
1.7
0.8
11.212.810.0+346—<1%—
VfB Stuttgart42 pts
64.6
1.6
0.8
12.56.614.9-1044—<1%—
FC Augsburg37 pts
66.1
1.8
0.9
10.411.212.4-242<1%——
Werder Bremen37 pts
69.2
1.9
0.9
10.010.813.2-441<1%——
Hannover 9636 pts
62.1
1.8
1.0
9.79.714.6-1139<1%——
Mainz30 pts
62.3
1.6
0.9
8.110.015.9-17349%——
Wolfsburg30 pts
61.8
1.5
0.9
6.115.812.1-10349%——
SC Freiburg30 pts
57.6
1.5
1.0
7.012.814.2-263418%——
Hamburger SV25 pts
59.3
1.6
1.0
6.87.819.4-252892%——
1. FC Köln21 pts
59.5
1.8
1.2
5.96.921.1-322599%——
Forecast from
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