Updated June 16, 2018 at 10:01 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Bundesliga

2017-18 season

Germany

Updated May 19, 2018, at 8:03 p.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
5/12
Hoffenheim3
42%24%
Dortmund1
34%
HOFDOR
Adjusted goals3.11.1
Shot-based xG1.01.9
Non-shot xG0.91.1
5/12
Hamburger SV2
35%26%
Gladbach1
39%
HSVMGB
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.21.4
Non-shot xG1.60.9
5/12
Bayern Munich1
86%11%
VfB Stuttgart4
3%
BMUSTU
Adjusted goals1.14.2
Shot-based xG2.12.5
Non-shot xG3.40.7
5/12
Mainz1
40%29%
Werder Bremen2
31%
MNZBRE
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.61.2
Non-shot xG1.01.1
5/12
SC Freiburg2
36%28%
FC Augsburg0
36%
FREAUG
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG0.90.2
Non-shot xG1.31.1
5/12
Hertha BSC2
41%26%
RB Leipzig6
33%
HERRBL
Adjusted goals2.16.0
Shot-based xG1.50.9
Non-shot xG0.71.0
5/12
Wolfsburg4
43%26%
1. FC Köln1
31%
WLFCOL
Adjusted goals3.71.1
Shot-based xG1.71.5
Non-shot xG1.22.1
5/12
Leverkusen3
61%22%
Hannover 962
17%
LEVHAN
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG3.81.8
Non-shot xG2.91.3
5/12
Schalke 041
50%27%
Eintracht0
23%
SCHFRA
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.50.3
Non-shot xG1.40.6
5/5
RB Leipzig4
57%24%
Wolfsburg1
19%
RBLWLF
Adjusted goals4.21.1
Shot-based xG1.70.9
Non-shot xG1.70.5
5/5
FC Augsburg1
37%29%
Schalke 042
34%
AUGSCH
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.12.1
Non-shot xG1.20.8
5/5
Hannover 963
39%28%
Hertha BSC1
32%
HANHER
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG1.61.1
Non-shot xG1.01.5
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Bundesligawin league
Bayern Munich84 pts
91.5
3.3
0.5
27.03.04.0+6484—✓✓
Schalke 0463 pts
75.3
2.0
0.7
18.09.07.0+1663—✓—
Hoffenheim55 pts
76.1
2.4
0.9
15.010.09.0+1855—✓—
Dortmund55 pts
78.0
2.4
0.8
15.010.09.0+1755—✓—
Leverkusen55 pts
76.9
2.3
0.8
15.010.09.0+1455———
RB Leipzig53 pts
72.2
2.3
1.0
15.08.011.0+453———
VfB Stuttgart51 pts
70.0
1.8
0.8
15.06.013.0+051———
Eintracht49 pts
70.2
1.9
0.8
14.07.013.0+049———
Gladbach47 pts
69.2
2.1
1.0
13.08.013.0-547———
Hertha BSC43 pts
64.3
1.8
0.9
10.013.011.0-343———
Werder Bremen42 pts
69.7
1.9
0.8
10.012.012.0-342———
FC Augsburg41 pts
65.1
1.8
0.9
10.011.013.0-341———
Hannover 9639 pts
63.1
1.9
1.1
10.09.015.0-1039———
Mainz36 pts
63.9
1.7
0.9
9.09.016.0-1436———
SC Freiburg36 pts
59.5
1.6
1.0
8.012.014.0-2436———
Wolfsburg33 pts
58.8
1.6
1.0
6.015.013.0-123334%——
Hamburger SV31 pts
61.9
1.7
1.0
8.07.019.0-2431✓——
1. FC Köln22 pts
57.8
1.9
1.4
5.07.022.0-3522✓——
Forecast from
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