Updated Nov. 17, 2019, at 1:57 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Bundesliga

2019-20 season

Germany

Updated Nov. 10, 2019, at 2:01 p.m.

Upcoming matches
November 19-25
11/22
Dortmund
83%
13%
SC Paderborn
4%
11/23
Werder Bremen
41%
26%
Schalke 04
33%
11/23
Leverkusen
69%
20%
SC Freiburg
11%
11/23
Eintracht
53%
26%
Wolfsburg
21%
11/23
Union Berlin
27%
26%
Gladbach
48%
11/23
Fortuna
10%
15%
Bayern Munich
75%
11/23
RB Leipzig
78%
16%
1. FC Köln
6%
11/24
FC Augsburg
42%
26%
Hertha BSC
33%
11/24
Hoffenheim
62%
20%
Mainz
18%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
November 5-11
11/10
SC Freiburg1
29%25%
Eintracht0
45%
FREFRA
Adjusted goals0.80.0
Shot-based xG0.91.2
Non-shot xG1.01.1
11/10
Wolfsburg0
33%27%
Leverkusen2
40%
WLFLEV
Adjusted goals0.01.6
Shot-based xG0.61.0
Non-shot xG0.80.3
11/10
Gladbach3
58%22%
Werder Bremen1
20%
MGBBRE
Adjusted goals3.20.8
Shot-based xG1.91.6
Non-shot xG1.01.0
11/9
Bayern Munich4
64%19%
Dortmund0
17%
BMUDOR
Adjusted goals3.80.0
Shot-based xG3.80.7
Non-shot xG2.60.4
11/9
SC Paderborn0
39%26%
FC Augsburg1
35%
PADAUG
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.21.2
Non-shot xG0.41.9
11/9
Mainz2
48%26%
Union Berlin3
26%
MNZFCU
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG2.31.5
Non-shot xG2.11.2
11/9
Hertha BSC2
23%23%
RB Leipzig4
54%
HERRBL
Adjusted goals2.13.3
Shot-based xG0.62.0
Non-shot xG0.21.5
11/9
Schalke 043
57%24%
Fortuna3
19%
SCHF95
Adjusted goals3.23.2
Shot-based xG1.52.1
Non-shot xG0.81.4
11/8
1. FC Köln1
32%26%
Hoffenheim2
42%
COLHOF
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.71.8
Non-shot xG1.81.6
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Bundesligawin league
Bayern Munich21 pts
92.4
3.3
0.5
+5475<1%98%69%
RB Leipzig21 pts
84.1
2.5
0.6
+3865<1%77%14%
Dortmund19 pts
82.2
2.4
0.6
+2561<1%59%7%
Gladbach25 pts
74.6
2.2
0.8
+1860<1%52%5%
Leverkusen18 pts
80.0
2.3
0.7
+1357<1%36%2%
Hoffenheim20 pts
73.8
2.2
0.9
+755<1%27%1%
Eintracht17 pts
74.7
2.1
0.8
+1153<1%21%<1%
Schalke 0419 pts
71.4
2.0
0.8
+551<1%14%<1%
Wolfsburg17 pts
71.2
1.8
0.7
-3462%6%<1%
SC Freiburg21 pts
63.6
1.8
1.0
-4462%5%<1%
Werder Bremen11 pts
67.8
2.0
1.0
-10418%2%<1%
Hertha BSC11 pts
66.2
1.9
1.0
-103911%1%<1%
Union Berlin13 pts
61.1
1.7
1.0
-163716%<1%<1%
Fortuna11 pts
64.3
1.9
1.1
-153717%<1%<1%
FC Augsburg10 pts
60.9
1.8
1.2
-223623%<1%<1%
Mainz9 pts
60.7
1.9
1.2
-303431%<1%<1%
1. FC Köln7 pts
61.8
1.7
1.0
-253139%<1%<1%
SC Paderborn4 pts
53.6
1.5
1.2
-372380%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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