Updated Jan. 23, 2018 at 4:42 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Bundesliga

2017-18 season

Germany

Updated Jan. 21, 2018 at 1:56 PM

Upcoming matches
1/26
Eintracht
45%
26%
Gladbach
28%
1/27
VfB Stuttgart
31%
28%
Schalke 04
41%
1/27
1. FC Köln
35%
27%
FC Augsburg
38%
1/27
Dortmund
74%
16%
SC Freiburg
10%
1/27
Bayern Munich
82%
13%
Hoffenheim
5%
1/27
RB Leipzig
61%
23%
Hamburger SV
16%
1/27
Werder Bremen
47%
26%
Hertha BSC
27%
1/28
Leverkusen
63%
21%
Mainz
17%
1/28
Hannover 96
43%
27%
Wolfsburg
31%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance.See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
1/21
Schalke 041
57%23%
Hannover 961
20%
SCHHAN
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.61.0
Non-shot xG0.90.4
1/21
Bayern Munich4
84%12%
Werder Bremen2
4%
BMUBRE
Adjusted goals3.82.1
Shot-based xG2.30.9
Non-shot xG2.41.1
1/20
Hamburger SV0
48%28%
1. FC Köln2
24%
HSVCOL
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.91.4
Non-shot xG1.21.2
1/20
Hoffenheim1
38%25%
Leverkusen4
37%
HOFLEV
Adjusted goals1.13.7
Shot-based xG0.72.1
Non-shot xG1.62.1
1/20
Mainz3
47%29%
VfB Stuttgart2
24%
MNZSTU
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG2.50.7
Non-shot xG1.61.0
1/20
SC Freiburg2
32%25%
RB Leipzig1
43%
FRERBL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG0.60.7
Non-shot xG1.12.2
1/20
Gladbach2
47%24%
FC Augsburg0
29%
MGBAUG
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG1.51.4
Non-shot xG1.72.3
1/20
Wolfsburg1
43%30%
Eintracht3
27%
WLFFRA
Adjusted goals1.12.6
Shot-based xG0.81.6
Non-shot xG1.01.1
1/19
Hertha BSC1
26%23%
Dortmund1
52%
HERDOR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.91.8
Non-shot xG0.82.1
1/14
Dortmund0
64%20%
Wolfsburg0
16%
DORWLF
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG2.90.8
Non-shot xG2.41.0
1/14
1. FC Köln2
30%25%
Gladbach1
44%
COLMGB
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.82.5
Non-shot xG1.21.6
1/13
RB Leipzig3
43%26%
Schalke 041
31%
RBLSCH
Adjusted goals3.11.1
Shot-based xG2.30.7
Non-shot xG1.41.2
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Bundesligawin league
Bayern Munich47 pts
91.8
3.1
0.4
26.14.43.5+5683<1%>99%>99%
Dortmund30 pts
82.4
2.7
0.8
16.59.18.5+2858<1%75%<1%
Leverkusen31 pts
77.7
2.4
0.8
15.610.48.0+2157<1%67%<1%
RB Leipzig31 pts
73.4
2.2
0.9
15.37.711.0+654<1%41%<1%
Schalke 0431 pts
72.5
2.0
0.8
14.010.89.2+653<1%35%<1%
Gladbach31 pts
70.8
2.2
1.0
14.77.611.7+052<1%28%<1%
Eintracht30 pts
71.1
1.8
0.7
13.79.910.3+451<1%25%<1%
FC Augsburg27 pts
69.3
2.0
0.9
12.49.811.8+247<1%10%<1%
Hoffenheim27 pts
67.8
1.9
0.9
12.39.812.0+047<1%9%<1%
Hannover 9627 pts
64.0
1.9
1.1
11.89.712.5-6452%6%<1%
Hertha BSC25 pts
65.0
1.8
0.9
10.910.812.4-4433%3%<1%
SC Freiburg23 pts
61.8
1.8
1.1
9.311.713.0-204011%<1%<1%
Wolfsburg20 pts
66.5
1.8
0.9
8.115.010.9-43910%<1%<1%
Mainz20 pts
63.4
1.8
1.0
9.48.715.9-153720%<1%<1%
Werder Bremen16 pts
67.0
1.9
0.9
8.410.914.7-103622%<1%<1%
VfB Stuttgart20 pts
59.7
1.6
0.9
10.05.918.1-163624%<1%<1%
Hamburger SV15 pts
59.6
1.6
1.0
7.76.819.4-223063%<1%<1%
1. FC Köln12 pts
59.7
1.7
1.0
7.06.820.2-272875%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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