Updated April 12, 2021, at 4:23 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Bundesliga

2020-21

Germany

Updated April 12, 2021, at 4:23 p.m.

Upcoming matches
April 13-19
4/16
RB Leipzig
62%
22%
Hoffenheim
16%
4/17
Wolfsburg
27%
23%
Bayern Munich
50%
4/17
Gladbach
37%
24%
Eintracht
39%
4/17
SC Freiburg
49%
27%
Schalke 04
24%
4/17
Union Berlin
40%
27%
VfB Stuttgart
33%
4/17
FC Augsburg
36%
30%
Arminia
33%
4/17
Leverkusen
52%
25%
1. FC Köln
23%
4/18
Dortmund
71%
18%
Werder Bremen
10%
4/18
Mainz
44%
27%
Hertha BSC
30%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
April 6-12
4/12
Hoffenheim0
40%25%
Leverkusen0
36%
HOFLEV
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.10.3
Non-shot xG0.31.1
4/11
1. FC Köln2
37%27%
Mainz3
36%
COLMNZ
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG2.81.6
Non-shot xG1.91.0
4/11
Schalke 041
32%29%
FC Augsburg0
39%
SCHAUG
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.81.2
Non-shot xG0.90.9
4/10
VfB Stuttgart2
25%23%
Dortmund3
52%
STUDOR
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.91.2
Non-shot xG1.42.2
4/10
Bayern Munich1
79%14%
Union Berlin1
7%
BMUFCU
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.01.1
Non-shot xG2.60.8
4/10
Eintracht4
44%26%
Wolfsburg3
30%
FRAWLF
Adjusted goals4.23.2
Shot-based xG0.61.7
Non-shot xG1.52.5
4/10
Hertha BSC2
36%28%
Gladbach2
36%
HERMGB
Adjusted goals1.72.1
Shot-based xG1.31.2
Non-shot xG2.81.2
4/10
Werder Bremen1
18%25%
RB Leipzig4
57%
BRERBL
Adjusted goals1.14.2
Shot-based xG1.41.7
Non-shot xG0.61.8
4/9
Arminia1
38%28%
SC Freiburg0
34%
DSCFRE
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.30.5
Non-shot xG1.51.1
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Bundesligawin league
Bayern Munich65 pts
90.3
3.2
0.6
+537896%
RB Leipzig60 pts
86.1
2.4
0.4
+3371>99%4%
Eintracht53 pts
77.1
2.4
0.9
+236493%<1%
Wolfsburg54 pts
79.9
2.2
0.6
+246386%<1%
Dortmund46 pts
82.2
2.6
0.7
+215719%
Leverkusen44 pts
75.9
2.1
0.7
+13522%
Gladbach40 pts
74.4
2.1
0.8
+548<1%<1%
VfB Stuttgart39 pts
70.1
2.1
1.0
+647<1%<1%
Union Berlin40 pts
71.8
1.8
0.7
+647<1%<1%
SC Freiburg37 pts
66.3
1.8
0.9
-444<1%<1%
Hoffenheim31 pts
72.2
2.1
0.9
-540<1%
FC Augsburg32 pts
58.9
1.6
1.0
-17382%
Werder Bremen30 pts
61.8
1.7
1.0
-14365%
Hertha BSC26 pts
68.8
1.8
0.8
-133511%
Mainz28 pts
67.1
2.0
1.0
-213414%
Arminia26 pts
59.1
1.6
1.0
-263333%
1. FC Köln23 pts
62.4
1.8
1.0
-243057%
Schalke 0413 pts
49.4
1.4
1.3
-5818>99%
Forecast from
Season

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