Updated Aug. 17, 2018 at 7:56 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Championship

2018-19 season

England, tier 2

Updated Aug. 17, 2018, at 4:39 p.m.

Upcoming matches
8/18
Wigan
38%
28%
Nottm Forest
34%
8/18
Reading
43%
28%
Bolton
29%
8/18
Hull City
53%
26%
Blackburn
21%
8/18
Ipswich Town
23%
27%
Aston Villa
50%
8/18
West Brom
60%
23%
QPR
18%
8/18
Bristol City
31%
28%
Middlesbrough
41%
8/18
Millwall
42%
28%
Derby County
30%
8/18
Leeds United
60%
24%
Rotherham
16%
8/18
Sheffield United
43%
28%
Norwich City
29%
8/18
Preston
26%
27%
Stoke City
46%
8/19
Brentford
57%
24%
Sheffield Wed.
19%
8/21
Derby County
53%
27%
Ipswich Town
20%
8/21
QPR
40%
27%
Bristol City
33%
8/21
Swansea City
47%
27%
Leeds United
26%
8/21
Rotherham
28%
27%
Hull City
45%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
8/17
Birmingham0
32%27%
Swansea City0
40%
BIRSWA
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.30.2
Non-shot xG1.50.5
8/11
Derby County1
45%27%
Leeds United4
28%
DERLEE
Adjusted goals1.14.2
Shot-based xG1.01.6
Non-shot xG0.91.3
8/11
Norwich City3
32%26%
West Brom4
42%
NORWBA
Adjusted goals3.24.0
Shot-based xG2.51.5
Non-shot xG1.01.2
8/11
Rotherham1
39%29%
Ipswich Town0
32%
ROTIPS
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.60.8
Non-shot xG0.42.0
8/11
Swansea City1
51%27%
Preston0
22%
SWAPNE
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.50.6
Non-shot xG0.61.1
8/11
Nottm Forest1
49%27%
Reading0
23%
FORREA
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.21.0
Non-shot xG1.11.4
8/11
QPR1
40%28%
Sheffield United2
32%
QPRSHEF
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.81.5
Non-shot xG1.40.9
8/11
Stoke City1
54%24%
Brentford1
22%
STKBRN
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.10.8
Non-shot xG1.01.9
8/11
Sheffield Wed.1
39%26%
Hull City1
34%
SHWHCY
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.82.0
Non-shot xG1.21.2
8/11
Bolton2
38%28%
Bristol City2
34%
BLTBRC
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG0.61.5
Non-shot xG0.71.1
8/11
Blackburn0
34%28%
Millwall0
38%
BLKMIL
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.70.3
Non-shot xG1.60.8
8/11
Middlesbrough1
57%25%
Birmingham0
19%
MIDBIR
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.60.4
Non-shot xG1.51.1
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.make prom. playoffspromotedprom.win Championshipwin league
Stoke City1 pt
64.3
1.8
1.0
23.311.811.0+3082<1%33%43%19%
Aston Villa6 pts
60.3
1.6
1.0
22.811.811.4+2480<1%33%37%16%
Middlesbrough7 pts
58.3
1.6
1.0
21.512.711.8+2177<1%33%31%11%
West Brom4 pts
59.2
1.7
1.2
21.311.812.9+20761%32%29%10%
Brentford4 pts
57.7
1.6
1.1
21.012.612.4+22761%31%27%10%
Swansea City7 pts
55.4
1.5
1.1
20.412.613.0+14742%30%23%8%
Leeds United6 pts
51.9
1.5
1.2
19.411.814.8+11703%25%17%5%
Derby County3 pts
49.8
1.4
1.2
17.312.016.7-1647%17%10%2%
Sheffield United3 pts
50.3
1.3
1.1
17.112.216.7+0637%17%9%2%
Hull City1 pt
50.5
1.5
1.3
16.812.816.4+1638%17%9%2%
Preston3 pts
49.2
1.3
1.1
16.612.816.6+0638%16%8%2%
Millwall2 pts
49.2
1.4
1.2
16.014.215.8+0629%15%8%2%
Norwich City1 pt
49.5
1.5
1.3
16.512.616.9+0629%15%9%2%
Bristol City2 pts
48.4
1.4
1.3
15.614.016.4-26110%14%7%2%
Nottm Forest5 pts
47.0
1.3
1.2
15.614.016.4-3619%13%7%1%
Birmingham2 pts
47.6
1.3
1.2
15.014.017.1-45912%11%5%<1%
Sheffield Wed.1 pt
46.3
1.4
1.4
14.912.618.5-75715%11%5%<1%
QPR0 pts
45.4
1.3
1.4
14.511.819.7-105518%8%4%<1%
Bolton4 pts
41.2
1.2
1.4
13.812.919.3-145420%7%3%<1%
Wigan3 pts
40.3
1.2
1.5
13.611.620.8-175224%6%2%<1%
Blackburn2 pts
39.9
1.2
1.4
12.014.119.9-185029%5%2%<1%
Ipswich Town1 pt
39.9
1.1
1.4
11.913.220.9-194932%4%1%<1%
Reading0 pts
40.1
1.2
1.4
12.212.121.8-194932%4%2%<1%
Rotherham3 pts
35.1
1.1
1.5
11.311.623.1-304640%2%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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