Updated Dec. 2, 2020, at 11:58 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Championship

2020-21

England, tier 2

Updated Dec. 2, 2020, at 4:43 p.m.

Upcoming matches
December 1-7
12/4
Barnsley
26%
27%
Bournemouth
47%
12/5
Reading
44%
30%
Nottm Forest
26%
12/5
Preston
48%
29%
Wycombe
23%
12/5
Coventry City
38%
30%
Rotherham
33%
12/5
Stoke City
43%
30%
Middlesbrough
27%
12/5
Bristol City
46%
29%
Birmingham
25%
12/5
Watford
47%
28%
Cardiff City
25%
12/5
Swansea City
55%
28%
Luton Town
18%
12/5
Huddersfield
41%
27%
QPR
32%
12/5
Millwall
44%
31%
Derby County
25%
12/5
Brentford
52%
27%
Blackburn
21%
12/5
Norwich
58%
26%
Sheffield Wed.
16%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
December 1-7
12/2
Wycombe0
27%29%
Stoke City1
44%
WYCSTK
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.41.0
Non-shot xG1.01.2
12/2
Luton Town3
20%26%
Norwich1
54%
LUTNOR
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG1.41.2
Non-shot xG1.11.2
12/2
Nottm Forest0
25%28%
Watford0
47%
FORWAT
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.60.3
Non-shot xG0.71.0
12/2
Sheffield Wed.1
37%32%
Reading1
31%
SHWREA
Adjusted goals1.10.8
Shot-based xG0.22.5
Non-shot xG0.63.5
12/2
Blackburn2
44%29%
Millwall1
26%
BLKMIL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.01.2
Non-shot xG1.41.1
12/2
Middlesbrough2
36%32%
Swansea City1
32%
MIDSWA
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.30.9
Non-shot xG1.01.1
12/1
Rotherham0
23%28%
Brentford2
49%
ROTBRN
Adjusted goals0.01.6
Shot-based xG0.51.6
Non-shot xG1.20.8
12/1
Bournemouth2
61%24%
Preston3
16%
BOUPNE
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG0.71.5
Non-shot xG1.71.2
12/1
QPR1
38%28%
Bristol City2
34%
QPRBRC
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG2.71.9
Non-shot xG2.71.1
12/1
Derby County1
42%30%
Coventry City1
28%
DERCOV
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.31.2
Non-shot xG1.70.7
12/1
Birmingham1
38%31%
Barnsley2
31%
BIRBAR
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.71.3
Non-shot xG0.51.4
12/1
Cardiff City3
49%28%
Huddersfield0
24%
CARHUD
Adjusted goals2.80.0
Shot-based xG1.70.5
Non-shot xG2.21.2
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.make prom. playoffspromotedprom.win Championshipwin league
Bournemouth27 pts
59.8
1.7
1.1
+2479<1%37%43%19%
Brentford26 pts
61.4
1.5
0.9
+2479<1%38%43%18%
Watford27 pts
59.7
1.6
1.0
+2279<1%37%40%17%
Norwich28 pts
56.8
1.6
1.2
+1677<1%37%34%14%
Stoke City25 pts
54.2
1.4
1.1
+1172<1%31%21%6%
Swansea City26 pts
53.2
1.4
1.1
+1272<1%31%20%6%
Middlesbrough24 pts
52.1
1.3
1.0
+1170<1%27%15%4%
Blackburn24 pts
52.7
1.5
1.2
+1769<1%27%16%4%
Reading27 pts
48.7
1.3
1.2
+569<1%25%14%4%
Bristol City27 pts
47.6
1.3
1.2
+369<1%25%12%3%
Cardiff City20 pts
56.1
1.5
1.0
+15681%24%15%3%
Millwall20 pts
49.2
1.2
1.1
+2623%13%6%<1%
Preston19 pts
47.3
1.3
1.2
-3615%11%5%<1%
Barnsley19 pts
47.4
1.2
1.2
-2605%10%4%<1%
Huddersfield18 pts
46.0
1.3
1.3
-7587%7%3%<1%
QPR17 pts
45.9
1.4
1.4
-9579%7%3%<1%
Luton Town22 pts
40.0
1.1
1.3
-15569%5%2%<1%
Birmingham16 pts
41.9
1.1
1.3
-125219%2%<1%<1%
Nottm Forest13 pts
45.0
1.2
1.2
-135121%2%<1%<1%
Rotherham13 pts
42.5
1.2
1.3
-144925%2%<1%<1%
Coventry City14 pts
39.8
1.1
1.4
-204926%1%<1%<1%
Derby County8 pts
41.7
1.1
1.3
-234445%<1%<1%<1%
Wycombe10 pts
37.1
1.1
1.4
-294254%<1%<1%<1%
Sheffield Wed.3 pts
40.4
1.0
1.2
-153867%<1%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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