Updated Dec. 12, 2018, at 5:03 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Championship

2018-19 season

England, tier 2

Updated Dec. 8, 2018, at 2:21 p.m.

Upcoming matches
12/14
Sheffield United
43%
27%
West Brom
30%
12/15
Aston Villa
48%
26%
Stoke City
26%
12/15
Blackburn
34%
28%
Birmingham
37%
12/15
Bolton
20%
29%
Leeds United
51%
12/15
Preston
41%
27%
Millwall
31%
12/15
Hull City
37%
27%
Brentford
36%
12/15
Ipswich Town
35%
30%
Wigan
34%
12/15
QPR
31%
30%
Middlesbrough
39%
12/15
Swansea City
53%
25%
Sheffield Wed.
22%
12/15
Rotherham
46%
27%
Reading
27%
12/15
Bristol City
33%
30%
Norwich City
37%
12/17
Derby County
47%
29%
Nottm Forest
25%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
12/8
Reading0
25%26%
Sheffield United2
49%
REASHEF
Adjusted goals0.01.7
Shot-based xG0.21.9
Non-shot xG0.21.7
12/8
Norwich City3
64%25%
Bolton2
12%
NORBLT
Adjusted goals2.92.1
Shot-based xG1.41.2
Non-shot xG2.00.9
12/8
Brentford2
45%27%
Swansea City3
28%
BRNSWA
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.81.8
Non-shot xG1.81.4
12/8
Leeds United2
59%25%
QPR1
16%
LEEQPR
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG3.00.9
Non-shot xG1.10.6
12/8
Millwall2
48%27%
Hull City2
25%
MILHCY
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.11.0
Non-shot xG2.20.9
12/8
Nottm Forest0
47%27%
Preston1
25%
FORPNE
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.00.9
Non-shot xG2.20.6
12/8
Stoke City2
63%24%
Ipswich Town0
13%
STKIPS
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG0.50.5
Non-shot xG1.31.1
12/8
Sheffield Wed.2
44%27%
Rotherham2
29%
SHWROT
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.41.2
Non-shot xG1.01.5
12/8
Birmingham0
46%29%
Bristol City1
25%
BIRBRC
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.40.3
Non-shot xG1.20.8
12/8
Wigan0
32%29%
Derby County1
39%
WGADER
Adjusted goals0.00.8
Shot-based xG0.81.5
Non-shot xG1.01.8
12/8
Middlesbrough1
60%26%
Blackburn1
14%
MIDBLK
Adjusted goals1.10.8
Shot-based xG1.21.4
Non-shot xG1.41.5
12/7
West Brom2
42%25%
Aston Villa2
32%
WBAAVL
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.20.7
Non-shot xG1.31.4
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.make prom. playoffspromotedprom.win Championshipwin league
Leeds United42 pts
59.7
1.5
0.9
23.513.09.4+2884<1%36%57%30%
Norwich City43 pts
55.8
1.6
1.1
23.810.711.5+2282<1%40%48%23%
Sheffield United37 pts
57.7
1.5
1.0
22.310.812.9+2078<1%42%35%12%
West Brom36 pts
58.2
1.7
1.2
21.412.412.1+2477<1%41%33%11%
Derby County37 pts
53.6
1.4
1.1
21.111.113.8+1274<1%38%23%6%
Middlesbrough36 pts
54.9
1.3
0.9
19.316.510.3+1574<1%38%23%6%
Aston Villa32 pts
59.2
1.8
1.2
19.714.411.9+2074<1%37%25%6%
Nottm Forest34 pts
50.9
1.4
1.2
17.417.011.6+1269<1%26%12%2%
Stoke City30 pts
55.7
1.5
1.1
17.515.912.6+868<1%24%12%1%
Birmingham30 pts
51.5
1.4
1.1
16.616.113.3+866<1%18%8%<1%
Swansea City29 pts
51.1
1.5
1.2
17.711.816.4+565<1%15%7%<1%
Bristol City29 pts
50.5
1.3
1.1
17.112.316.6+2641%12%5%<1%
Blackburn30 pts
43.9
1.3
1.4
14.815.715.4-10603%7%2%<1%
QPR28 pts
46.7
1.4
1.3
16.510.818.7-9603%7%2%<1%
Preston25 pts
48.7
1.4
1.2
15.014.017.0-3594%6%2%<1%
Brentford22 pts
51.9
1.5
1.3
14.913.617.4+4586%6%2%<1%
Wigan25 pts
43.0
1.2
1.3
14.611.020.4-125511%2%<1%<1%
Millwall19 pts
49.1
1.4
1.3
13.013.819.2-95315%1%<1%<1%
Sheffield Wed.24 pts
40.5
1.3
1.5
13.112.520.3-215218%1%<1%<1%
Hull City21 pts
44.3
1.3
1.3
13.012.820.2-145218%1%<1%<1%
Rotherham21 pts
39.8
1.2
1.4
11.015.719.3-214929%<1%<1%<1%
Bolton18 pts
37.8
1.0
1.3
10.213.122.7-264452%<1%<1%<1%
Reading18 pts
36.5
1.2
1.6
10.112.523.4-224354%<1%<1%<1%
Ipswich Town11 pts
35.6
1.0
1.4
6.815.024.2-343583%<1%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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