Updated Jan. 23, 2020, at 4:57 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this works Global club soccer rankings

Championship

2019-20 season

England, tier 2

Updated Jan. 22, 2020, at 4:48 p.m.

Upcoming matches

January 21-27

1/25	Stoke City	49%	28%
	Swansea City	23%

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Completed matches

After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...

Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.

These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »

January 21-27

1/22	Charlton Athletic0	25%	26%
	Fulham0	49%

	CHA	FUL
Adjusted goals	0.0	0.0
Shot-based xG	0.1	0.6
Non-shot xG	0.7	0.6

1/22	Nottm Forest1	45%	29%
	Reading1	26%

	FOR	REA
Adjusted goals	1.1	1.1
Shot-based xG	1.1	0.4
Non-shot xG	1.0	1.1

1/21	Barnsley0	39%	28%
	Preston3	32%

	BAR	PNE
Adjusted goals	0.0	3.2
Shot-based xG	0.3	0.9
Non-shot xG	0.9	1.2

1/21	Middlesbrough1	44%	28%
	Birmingham1	27%

	MID	BIR
Adjusted goals	1.1	1.1
Shot-based xG	1.8	0.6
Non-shot xG	1.3	1.3

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	Team rating				avg. simulated season		end-of-season probabilities

team	spi	off.	def.	goal diff.	proj. pts.pts.	Every position	relegatedrel.	make prom. playoffs	promotedprom.	win Championshipwin league
Leeds United52 pts	64.9	1.8	0.9	+33	86		<1%	25%	79%	48%
Brentford47 pts	66.4	1.6	0.8	+37	81		<1%	45%	62%	22%
West Brom53 pts	56.4	1.6	1.1	+25	82		<1%	45%	55%	21%
Fulham49 pts	57.6	1.6	1.1	+17	76		<1%	54%	30%	5%
Nottm Forest48 pts	47.7	1.3	1.2	+9	71		<1%	36%	12%	1%
Preston46 pts	49.9	1.3	1.1	+8	69		<1%	30%	9%	<1%
Millwall44 pts	50.6	1.3	1.0	+5	69		<1%	29%	10%	<1%
Swansea City45 pts	48.6	1.4	1.2	+2	68		<1%	26%	8%	<1%
Sheffield Wed.42 pts	49.6	1.4	1.2	+9	67		<1%	24%	8%	<1%
Bristol City44 pts	47.8	1.4	1.3	+0	67		<1%	22%	6%	<1%
Hull City39 pts	52.1	1.4	1.1	+6	65		<1%	15%	5%	<1%
Blackburn40 pts	49.4	1.3	1.2	+5	64		<1%	14%	4%	<1%
QPR38 pts	49.7	1.6	1.4	-3	64		<1%	11%	3%	<1%
Cardiff City39 pts	49.1	1.4	1.3	-2	64		<1%	11%	4%	<1%
Reading37 pts	46.8	1.3	1.2	+2	61		2%	6%	2%	<1%
Derby County37 pts	45.0	1.3	1.3	-12	58		3%	3%	<1%	<1%
Middlesbrough35 pts	48.0	1.3	1.2	-8	57		4%	2%	<1%	<1%
Birmingham34 pts	46.0	1.3	1.3	-13	56		7%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Stoke City28 pts	54.4	1.4	1.0	-4	56		8%	1%	<1%	<1%
Huddersfield29 pts	45.2	1.2	1.2	-16	51		21%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Charlton Athletic30 pts	38.7	1.2	1.5	-12	48		34%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Wigan23 pts	43.1	1.2	1.3	-22	45		58%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Barnsley24 pts	40.1	1.3	1.5	-26	43		71%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Luton Town21 pts	33.0	1.1	1.7	-40	38		90%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Forecast from

Season

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Design and development by Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Julia Wolfe. Statistical models by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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