Updated Apr. 22, 2018 at 9:02 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Championship

2017-18 season

England, tier 2

Updated Apr. 21, 2018, at 4:39 p.m.

Upcoming matches
4/24
Derby County
33%
28%
Cardiff City
39%
4/24
Nottm Forest
43%
28%
Barnsley
28%
4/27
Fulham
77%
16%
Sunderland
7%
4/28
Aston Villa
55%
26%
Derby County
19%
4/28
Reading
38%
30%
Ipswich Town
32%
4/28
Hull City
37%
26%
Cardiff City
37%
4/28
QPR
45%
27%
Birmingham
28%
4/28
Wolverhampton
66%
22%
Sheffield Wed.
12%
4/28
Barnsley
25%
26%
Brentford
49%
4/28
Nottm Forest
35%
28%
Bristol City
36%
4/28
Norwich City
49%
27%
Leeds United
24%
4/28
Sheffield United
42%
30%
Preston
28%
4/28
Burton Albion
41%
30%
Bolton
29%
4/28
Middlesbrough
43%
29%
Millwall
28%
See all▾
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
4/21
Cardiff City2
61%25%
Nottm Forest1
14%
CARFOR
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.71.2
Non-shot xG2.40.9
4/21
Brentford2
56%24%
QPR1
20%
BRNQPR
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.41.2
Non-shot xG3.01.4
4/21
Leeds United2
43%27%
Barnsley1
30%
LEEBAR
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.61.1
Non-shot xG1.71.1
4/21
Bristol City5
37%28%
Hull City5
35%
BRCHCY
Adjusted goals5.35.3
Shot-based xG1.91.4
Non-shot xG2.61.1
4/21
Ipswich Town0
27%30%
Aston Villa4
43%
IPSAVL
Adjusted goals0.03.2
Shot-based xG0.21.8
Non-shot xG0.32.5
4/21
Sheffield Wed.3
50%26%
Reading0
24%
SHWREA
Adjusted goals3.10.0
Shot-based xG1.70.9
Non-shot xG1.40.9
4/21
Preston0
49%28%
Norwich City0
24%
PNENOR
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.80.5
Non-shot xG2.30.9
4/21
Derby County1
38%29%
Middlesbrough2
33%
DERMID
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.31.1
Non-shot xG1.31.0
4/21
Birmingham2
31%30%
Sheffield United1
39%
BIRSHEF
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.30.3
Non-shot xG1.60.8
4/21
Sunderland1
49%26%
Burton Albion2
25%
SUNBUR
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.00.9
Non-shot xG1.12.1
4/21
Bolton0
19%27%
Wolverhampton4
53%
BLTWOL
Adjusted goals0.04.2
Shot-based xG0.92.7
Non-shot xG0.91.4
4/20
Millwall0
35%28%
Fulham3
36%
MILFUL
Adjusted goals0.02.7
Shot-based xG0.81.1
Non-shot xG1.11.2
See all▾
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.make prom. playoffspromotedprom.win Championshipwin league
Wolverhampton98 pts
55.2
1.4
1.0
31.38.46.3+48102——✓✓
Cardiff City86 pts
48.6
1.4
1.2
27.58.79.8+3291—30%78%—
Fulham85 pts
54.5
1.5
1.1
25.313.47.3+3689—71%55%—
Aston Villa82 pts
50.3
1.3
1.1
24.910.610.5+3285—>99%30%—
Middlesbrough72 pts
44.0
1.2
1.3
21.99.614.5+2175—93%17%—
Derby County68 pts
38.5
1.2
1.5
19.014.812.2+1772—44%7%—
Millwall69 pts
43.3
1.2
1.3
18.615.611.8+1271—24%5%—
Brentford68 pts
48.1
1.4
1.3
19.014.512.5+1371—27%7%—
Preston67 pts
42.1
1.1
1.3
17.916.511.6+1070—8%1%—
Sheffield United66 pts
42.1
1.2
1.3
19.89.616.7+769—2%<1%—
Bristol City66 pts
37.8
1.2
1.6
17.815.612.7+1069—2%<1%—
Norwich City57 pts
36.4
1.1
1.5
14.815.515.6-860————
Leeds United57 pts
31.1
1.0
1.7
16.69.519.8-659————
Ipswich Town56 pts
29.2
0.9
1.6
16.68.620.8-758————
QPR53 pts
35.3
1.2
1.7
14.811.519.7-1256————
Sheffield Wed.53 pts
33.0
1.1
1.7
13.514.518.0-655————
Nottm Forest49 pts
31.5
1.0
1.6
15.17.923.0-1653————
Hull City48 pts
41.7
1.4
1.6
11.615.518.9+150————
Birmingham43 pts
34.0
1.0
1.5
12.57.526.0-31453%———
Reading43 pts
25.3
0.9
1.9
10.513.522.0-19452%———
Bolton40 pts
26.6
0.9
1.7
9.713.622.7-344341%———
Barnsley38 pts
30.4
1.0
1.8
8.814.822.4-214167%———
Burton Albion38 pts
25.3
0.9
1.8
9.511.624.9-454086%———
Sunderland34 pts
26.6
1.0
2.0
6.216.423.4-3335>99%———
Forecast from

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