Updated March 23, 2020, at 6:26 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Championship

2019-20 season

England, tier 2

Updated March 8, 2020, at 12:55 p.m.

Upcoming matches
April 14-20
4/18
Wigan
49%
28%
Hull City
24%
4/18
Reading
41%
30%
Middlesbrough
29%
4/18
Birmingham
55%
25%
Charlton Athletic
20%
4/18
Sheffield Wed.
38%
29%
Huddersfield
33%
4/18
Cardiff City
46%
27%
Derby County
27%
4/18
West Brom
48%
28%
Fulham
24%
4/18
Bristol City
35%
28%
Stoke City
37%
4/18
Nottm Forest
41%
29%
Swansea City
30%
4/18
Millwall
45%
30%
Blackburn
24%
4/18
Luton Town
28%
26%
QPR
46%
4/18
Leeds United
68%
21%
Barnsley
10%
4/18
Brentford
61%
25%
Preston
14%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
March 3-9
3/8
Derby County3
38%29%
Blackburn0
34%
DERBLK
Adjusted goals2.80.0
Shot-based xG2.30.5
Non-shot xG1.61.6
3/7
Charlton Athletic0
34%29%
Middlesbrough1
36%
CHAMID
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.51.3
Non-shot xG1.51.4
3/7
Brentford5
64%23%
Sheffield Wed.0
13%
BRNSHW
Adjusted goals4.90.0
Shot-based xG1.60.2
Non-shot xG1.60.7
3/7
Leeds United2
69%21%
Huddersfield0
10%
LEEHUD
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.70.4
Non-shot xG1.71.0
3/7
Swansea City0
27%27%
West Brom0
46%
SWAWBA
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.20.8
Non-shot xG0.81.1
3/7
Barnsley0
41%28%
Cardiff City2
31%
BARCAR
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.31.4
Non-shot xG0.51.3
3/7
Stoke City5
53%27%
Hull City1
21%
STKHCY
Adjusted goals4.81.1
Shot-based xG2.70.9
Non-shot xG1.60.6
3/7
Preston1
43%28%
QPR3
29%
PNEQPR
Adjusted goals1.12.8
Shot-based xG1.70.9
Non-shot xG1.00.8
3/7
Birmingham1
46%28%
Reading3
25%
BIRREA
Adjusted goals1.12.7
Shot-based xG1.71.1
Non-shot xG2.80.8
3/7
Wigan0
56%26%
Luton Town0
18%
WGALUT
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.60.2
Non-shot xG0.90.2
3/7
Bristol City1
32%28%
Fulham1
40%
BRCFUL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.71.7
Non-shot xG1.02.5
3/6
Nottm Forest0
41%32%
Millwall3
28%
FORMIL
Adjusted goals0.03.2
Shot-based xG0.71.3
Non-shot xG1.31.2
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.make prom. playoffspromotedprom.win Championshipwin league
Leeds United71 pts
68.0
1.8
0.8
+35893%98%73%
West Brom70 pts
60.1
1.6
1.0
+318516%88%25%
Brentford60 pts
65.7
1.7
0.9
+387785%46%<1%
Fulham64 pts
55.5
1.5
1.1
+147686%28%<1%
Nottm Forest60 pts
47.3
1.3
1.2
+107267%11%<1%
Millwall54 pts
52.6
1.3
1.0
+768<1%33%8%<1%
Preston56 pts
48.0
1.3
1.2
+568<1%30%6%<1%
Cardiff City54 pts
51.6
1.4
1.2
+367<1%23%5%<1%
Bristol City55 pts
44.9
1.4
1.4
-367<1%20%3%<1%
Swansea City53 pts
48.5
1.4
1.3
+165<1%12%3%<1%
Blackburn53 pts
49.3
1.3
1.2
+765<1%13%3%<1%
QPR50 pts
50.9
1.5
1.3
-363<1%5%1%<1%
Derby County51 pts
48.9
1.4
1.3
-362<1%3%<1%<1%
Reading48 pts
45.0
1.2
1.2
+360<1%1%<1%<1%
Birmingham47 pts
48.0
1.4
1.3
-959<1%<1%<1%<1%
Sheffield Wed.48 pts
44.3
1.3
1.3
-559<1%<1%<1%<1%
Stoke City42 pts
53.0
1.4
1.1
-5555%<1%<1%
Huddersfield42 pts
48.8
1.3
1.2
-13548%<1%<1%
Wigan41 pts
47.1
1.2
1.1
-125314%<1%<1%
Middlesbrough41 pts
46.6
1.2
1.2
-115313%<1%<1%
Hull City41 pts
41.2
1.3
1.5
-165222%<1%<1%
Charlton Athletic39 pts
36.6
1.1
1.5
-164761%<1%<1%
Luton Town35 pts
35.3
1.1
1.5
-334488%<1%<1%
Barnsley34 pts
43.1
1.2
1.3
-244487%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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