Updated Feb. 23, 2019, at 7:17 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Championship

2018-19 season

England, tier 2

Updated Feb. 23, 2019, at 2:29 p.m.

Upcoming matches
2/25
Nottm Forest
43%
30%
Derby County
28%
2/26
Hull City
40%
28%
Millwall
32%
2/26
Sheffield Wed.
30%
27%
Brentford
42%
2/26
QPR
25%
26%
Leeds United
49%
2/26
Bristol City
47%
28%
Birmingham
25%
3/1
Leeds United
48%
27%
West Brom
26%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
2/23
West Brom0
37%28%
Sheffield United1
35%
WBASHEF
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.20.5
Non-shot xG1.41.2
2/23
Norwich City3
53%26%
Bristol City2
21%
NORBRC
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG2.21.4
Non-shot xG2.32.1
2/23
Brentford5
51%26%
Hull City1
24%
BRNHCY
Adjusted goals5.01.1
Shot-based xG2.40.7
Non-shot xG2.51.0
2/23
Leeds United2
73%19%
Bolton1
7%
LEEBLT
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.41.7
Non-shot xG2.30.7
2/23
Millwall1
42%30%
Preston3
28%
MILPNE
Adjusted goals1.13.2
Shot-based xG1.31.1
Non-shot xG1.51.3
2/23
Stoke City1
40%29%
Aston Villa1
31%
STKAVL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.50.6
Non-shot xG0.60.7
2/23
Sheffield Wed.3
36%28%
Swansea City1
36%
SHWSWA
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG1.61.5
Non-shot xG1.51.1
2/23
Birmingham2
50%26%
Blackburn2
23%
BIRBLK
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG0.90.9
Non-shot xG1.60.8
2/23
Reading1
37%28%
Rotherham1
35%
REAROT
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.01.3
Non-shot xG0.91.8
2/23
Wigan1
54%29%
Ipswich Town1
18%
WGAIPS
Adjusted goals0.81.1
Shot-based xG4.21.5
Non-shot xG2.40.8
2/23
Middlesbrough2
55%26%
QPR0
19%
MIDQPR
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.30.7
Non-shot xG0.50.8
2/20
Derby County0
42%30%
Millwall1
28%
DERMIL
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.60.2
Non-shot xG1.20.4
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.make prom. playoffspromotedprom.win Championshipwin league
Norwich City66 pts
58.5
1.8
1.2
24.911.99.2+318735%72%37%
Leeds United64 pts
59.6
1.6
1.0
25.110.410.4+248644%65%29%
Sheffield United64 pts
63.0
1.6
0.9
25.010.210.8+328546%66%26%
West Brom60 pts
57.6
1.6
1.1
22.512.111.4+298075%35%5%
Middlesbrough57 pts
55.8
1.3
0.9
20.615.99.5+1878<1%73%26%2%
Bristol City53 pts
52.7
1.4
1.1
20.512.013.5+1173<1%51%15%<1%
Derby County51 pts
48.2
1.3
1.2
19.013.014.0+670<1%29%7%<1%
Nottm Forest47 pts
49.5
1.3
1.2
16.017.712.3+1066<1%11%3%<1%
Brentford43 pts
57.5
1.7
1.2
17.313.715.0+1666<1%12%4%<1%
Birmingham47 pts
50.0
1.4
1.2
15.717.612.6+965<1%8%2%<1%
Preston47 pts
51.0
1.4
1.2
16.414.415.2+564<1%5%1%<1%
Aston Villa45 pts
53.5
1.6
1.2
14.918.212.9+663<1%4%1%<1%
Swansea City44 pts
49.4
1.5
1.3
17.011.417.6+262<1%4%<1%<1%
Hull City44 pts
46.8
1.4
1.3
16.511.518.0-261<1%2%<1%<1%
Sheffield Wed.44 pts
45.5
1.2
1.2
15.014.716.3-1260<1%<1%<1%<1%
Blackburn44 pts
44.6
1.3
1.4
14.914.316.8-959<1%<1%<1%<1%
Stoke City41 pts
50.8
1.2
1.0
13.417.615.0-658<1%<1%<1%<1%
QPR39 pts
46.5
1.4
1.4
15.59.421.1-1356<1%<1%<1%<1%
Millwall34 pts
48.3
1.3
1.2
12.113.720.2-14507%<1%<1%<1%
Wigan35 pts
42.7
1.2
1.3
12.811.621.6-18508%<1%<1%<1%
Rotherham30 pts
42.9
1.3
1.4
8.418.219.4-254342%<1%<1%<1%
Reading30 pts
36.5
1.1
1.4
8.815.322.0-224258%<1%<1%<1%
Bolton26 pts
34.5
1.0
1.5
8.911.325.8-373885%<1%
Ipswich Town21 pts
31.9
0.9
1.5
5.315.025.7-413199%<1%
Forecast from
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