Updated April 19, 2019, at 10:57 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Championship

2018-19 season

England, tier 2

Updated April 19, 2019, at 4:48 p.m.

Upcoming matches
April
4/22
Aston Villa
55%
25%
Millwall
20%
4/22
Blackburn
50%
26%
Bolton
24%
4/22
Wigan
39%
28%
Preston
33%
4/22
Reading
25%
25%
West Brom
50%
4/22
Derby County
47%
28%
QPR
26%
4/22
Hull City
21%
26%
Sheffield United
53%
4/22
Sheffield Wed.
38%
29%
Bristol City
33%
4/22
Ipswich Town
24%
26%
Swansea City
51%
4/22
Stoke City
24%
28%
Norwich City
48%
4/22
Nottm Forest
32%
31%
Middlesbrough
37%
4/22
Rotherham
41%
26%
Birmingham
33%
4/22
Brentford
24%
26%
Leeds United
50%
4/27
Millwall
43%
33%
Stoke City
25%
4/27
Middlesbrough
58%
27%
Reading
16%
4/27
Bolton
20%
25%
Brentford
55%
4/27
Birmingham
49%
27%
Wigan
25%
4/27
Preston
40%
29%
Sheffield Wed.
31%
4/27
QPR
44%
28%
Nottm Forest
28%
4/27
West Brom
58%
22%
Rotherham
20%
4/27
Bristol City
47%
27%
Derby County
26%
4/27
Swansea City
52%
24%
Hull City
24%
4/27
Sheffield United
70%
21%
Ipswich Town
9%
4/27
Norwich City
55%
23%
Blackburn
22%
4/28
Leeds United
49%
26%
Aston Villa
25%
4/30
Millwall
41%
28%
Bristol City
31%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
April
4/19
Norwich City2
63%23%
Sheffield Wed.2
15%
NORSHW
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.91.5
Non-shot xG2.31.0
4/19
Leeds United1
70%20%
Wigan2
9%
LEEWGA
Adjusted goals0.82.1
Shot-based xG3.80.5
Non-shot xG5.30.7
4/19
Swansea City4
50%24%
Rotherham3
26%
SWAROT
Adjusted goals4.03.2
Shot-based xG3.51.6
Non-shot xG2.31.7
4/19
West Brom3
54%24%
Hull City2
22%
WBAHCY
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG2.00.6
Non-shot xG1.51.2
4/19
QPR1
39%28%
Blackburn2
34%
QPRBLK
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.02.2
Non-shot xG1.71.0
4/19
Preston4
45%30%
Ipswich Town0
25%
PNEIPS
Adjusted goals4.10.0
Shot-based xG1.50.7
Non-shot xG1.02.1
4/19
Birmingham2
41%29%
Derby County2
30%
BIRDER
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.01.7
Non-shot xG2.01.3
4/19
Bolton0
16%22%
Aston Villa2
61%
BLTAVL
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.32.6
Non-shot xG0.63.2
4/19
Middlesbrough1
48%33%
Stoke City0
19%
MIDSTK
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.91.2
Non-shot xG0.61.1
4/19
Millwall1
40%28%
Brentford1
32%
MILBRN
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.50.9
Non-shot xG2.01.1
4/19
Sheffield United2
65%23%
Nottm Forest0
12%
SHEFFOR
Adjusted goals1.40.0
Shot-based xG1.50.3
Non-shot xG2.60.4
4/19
Bristol City1
60%24%
Reading1
16%
BRCREA
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.90.5
Non-shot xG2.30.9
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.make prom. playoffspromotedprom.win Championshipwin league
Norwich City87 pts
60.2
1.8
1.2
26.312.86.9+35924%97%82%
Sheffield United82 pts
61.3
1.6
0.9
25.610.89.6+348840%73%12%
Leeds United82 pts
65.8
1.8
0.9
26.67.811.6+288857%64%6%
West Brom76 pts
55.6
1.6
1.2
23.410.711.8+2881>99%19%
Aston Villa72 pts
61.0
1.8
1.1
20.215.810.0+227698%29%
Middlesbrough67 pts
51.6
1.3
1.0
19.313.912.8+107244%7%
Bristol City66 pts
51.9
1.5
1.2
19.513.113.4+97140%8%
Derby County64 pts
48.3
1.3
1.2
18.314.113.6+86916%3%
Swansea City59 pts
54.2
1.7
1.3
18.99.018.1+4661%<1%
Sheffield Wed.60 pts
49.9
1.3
1.1
16.215.914.0-364<1%<1%
Preston60 pts
47.1
1.3
1.3
17.012.816.2+464<1%<1%
Hull City60 pts
46.3
1.4
1.4
17.89.818.4+063<1%<1%
Nottm Forest57 pts
44.5
1.2
1.3
15.215.815.0+261
Blackburn56 pts
49.0
1.4
1.3
16.111.718.2-660
Brentford55 pts
54.6
1.6
1.2
15.313.817.0+960
Stoke City52 pts
48.5
1.1
1.0
11.819.914.3-855
QPR48 pts
45.7
1.3
1.3
13.99.822.2-1752<1%
Birmingham47 pts
47.7
1.4
1.3
14.217.814.0+551<1%
Wigan45 pts
42.2
1.3
1.4
12.012.821.2-16493%
Millwall43 pts
50.1
1.3
1.1
11.414.220.4-13486%
Reading45 pts
36.6
1.1
1.5
10.715.819.5-18484%
Rotherham40 pts
41.8
1.4
1.6
8.916.820.3-284487%
Bolton32 pts
30.4
1.0
1.6
8.68.828.6-4735
Ipswich Town28 pts
33.8
1.0
1.5
4.516.724.8-4230
Forecast from
Season

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