Updated Oct. 21, 2018 at 4:54 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

league-logo

Championship

2018-19 season

England, tier 2

Updated Oct. 20, 2018, at 2:28 p.m.

Upcoming matches
10/23
Middlesbrough
65%
24%
Rotherham
11%
10/23
Birmingham
53%
27%
Reading
21%
10/23
QPR
44%
28%
Sheffield Wed.
28%
10/23
Swansea City
54%
26%
Blackburn
20%
10/23
Millwall
50%
27%
Wigan
23%
10/23
Norwich City
42%
29%
Aston Villa
30%
10/23
Sheffield United
42%
28%
Stoke City
30%
10/24
Preston
34%
28%
Brentford
38%
10/24
Bristol City
49%
28%
Hull City
23%
10/24
Leeds United
63%
25%
Ipswich Town
13%
10/24
Bolton
37%
30%
Nottm Forest
32%
10/24
West Brom
54%
25%
Derby County
20%
10/26
QPR
37%
29%
Aston Villa
35%
10/27
Middlesbrough
50%
30%
Derby County
20%
10/27
Bolton
36%
30%
Hull City
33%
10/27
Birmingham
49%
27%
Sheffield Wed.
24%
10/27
Preston
54%
26%
Rotherham
19%
10/27
West Brom
61%
23%
Blackburn
17%
10/27
Bristol City
36%
28%
Stoke City
36%
10/27
Swansea City
56%
25%
Reading
19%
10/27
Millwall
55%
26%
Ipswich Town
19%
10/27
Norwich City
38%
29%
Brentford
33%
10/27
Sheffield United
56%
26%
Wigan
18%
10/27
Leeds United
53%
27%
Nottm Forest
20%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
10/20
Derby County2
33%30%
Sheffield United1
36%
DERSHEF
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG0.81.7
Non-shot xG1.31.3
10/20
Rotherham1
42%31%
Bolton1
27%
ROTBLT
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.81.4
Non-shot xG1.31.3
10/20
Brentford0
53%27%
Bristol City1
21%
BRNBRC
Adjusted goals0.00.8
Shot-based xG1.11.7
Non-shot xG0.91.4
10/20
Nottm Forest1
39%29%
Norwich City2
32%
FORNOR
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.92.1
Non-shot xG0.81.0
10/20
Stoke City0
54%26%
Birmingham1
20%
STKBIR
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.51.0
Non-shot xG1.81.1
10/20
Ipswich Town0
38%30%
QPR2
32%
IPSQPR
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.21.7
Non-shot xG0.71.6
10/20
Hull City1
39%28%
Preston1
32%
HCYPNE
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.21.0
Non-shot xG1.41.5
10/20
Reading3
36%28%
Millwall1
36%
REAMIL
Adjusted goals2.81.1
Shot-based xG1.82.4
Non-shot xG0.63.3
10/20
Wigan1
24%25%
West Brom0
51%
WGAWBA
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.60.3
Non-shot xG1.01.0
10/20
Aston Villa1
42%28%
Swansea City0
30%
AVLSWA
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.01.6
Non-shot xG1.62.1
10/20
Blackburn2
27%29%
Leeds United1
44%
BLKLEE
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG0.91.5
Non-shot xG1.12.0
10/19
Sheffield Wed.1
28%29%
Middlesbrough2
43%
SHWMID
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.61.1
Non-shot xG1.01.4
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.make prom. playoffspromotedprom.win Championshipwin league
West Brom24 pts
59.3
1.8
1.2
22.611.412.0+2979<1%35%44%21%
Middlesbrough25 pts
58.7
1.4
0.9
21.813.710.4+2379<1%36%43%19%
Sheffield United25 pts
56.6
1.5
1.0
22.510.213.4+1878<1%35%37%16%
Leeds United23 pts
56.0
1.5
1.0
20.114.411.5+2275<1%35%30%11%
Stoke City16 pts
58.8
1.6
1.1
19.012.914.1+11702%28%21%5%
Brentford18 pts
56.4
1.5
1.1
18.015.212.8+14692%27%19%5%
Norwich City21 pts
51.3
1.4
1.1
18.712.514.8+5682%25%15%4%
Bristol City19 pts
51.8
1.4
1.1
17.713.514.8+7673%22%12%3%
Swansea City17 pts
52.9
1.4
1.1
17.314.314.4+8663%22%13%3%
Derby County21 pts
50.4
1.3
1.1
17.712.615.7+3663%21%11%3%
Aston Villa18 pts
52.9
1.5
1.2
16.815.214.0+5663%21%12%3%
Birmingham17 pts
51.7
1.4
1.1
15.717.612.7+6654%19%11%2%
Sheffield Wed.19 pts
45.6
1.4
1.4
16.013.017.0-4617%13%6%1%
Nottm Forest19 pts
45.6
1.3
1.3
14.716.315.0-2608%11%5%<1%
QPR17 pts
46.6
1.3
1.2
16.111.518.5-11609%10%5%<1%
Wigan20 pts
43.5
1.2
1.3
16.011.518.5-9609%10%4%<1%
Blackburn21 pts
42.4
1.2
1.4
14.715.216.1-10599%10%4%<1%
Millwall10 pts
49.2
1.4
1.3
14.213.018.8-75616%7%3%<1%
Preston10 pts
48.5
1.4
1.3
13.913.318.8-65517%6%3%<1%
Bolton16 pts
38.9
1.0
1.3
12.613.719.7-185126%3%1%<1%
Hull City9 pts
44.5
1.3
1.3
12.312.321.4-164934%2%<1%<1%
Reading12 pts
40.3
1.2
1.5
12.212.021.8-164936%2%<1%<1%
Rotherham12 pts
37.4
1.1
1.4
11.112.222.7-274648%<1%<1%<1%
Ipswich Town9 pts
37.3
1.0
1.4
8.915.321.7-264259%<1%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

Comments