Updated Sept. 29, 2020, at 11:11 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Eredivisie

2020-21

Netherlands

Updated Sept. 27, 2020, at 12:40 p.m.

Upcoming matches
September 29 - October 5
10/2
Utrecht
55%
24%
Heerenveen
21%
10/3
Vitesse
55%
25%
Heracles
20%
10/3
RKC
36%
28%
PEC Zwolle
36%
10/3
VVV-Venlo
46%
27%
ADO Den Haag
27%
10/3
Twente
48%
27%
Emmen
24%
10/4
Groningen
13%
24%
Ajax
63%
10/4
Willem II
31%
26%
Feyenoord
43%
10/4
Sparta
23%
26%
AZ Alkmaar
51%
10/4
PSV
81%
14%
Fortuna Sittard
5%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
September 22-28
9/27
Emmen1
37%27%
Willem II1
36%
EMMWIL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.41.1
Non-shot xG1.01.8
9/27
Heracles1
22%26%
PSV1
52%
HERPSV
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.31.2
Non-shot xG1.11.1
9/27
Utrecht3
64%22%
RKC1
14%
UTRWLW
Adjusted goals2.81.1
Shot-based xG2.70.4
Non-shot xG1.70.7
9/27
Feyenoord4
76%17%
ADO Den Haag2
7%
FEYADO
Adjusted goals3.82.1
Shot-based xG3.21.7
Non-shot xG2.50.8
9/26
Ajax2
81%14%
Vitesse1
5%
AJXVIT
Adjusted goals2.10.8
Shot-based xG2.12.1
Non-shot xG1.62.2
9/26
Heerenveen1
54%25%
VVV-Venlo0
22%
HERVVV
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.50.7
Non-shot xG1.81.0
9/26
Fortuna Sittard3
18%24%
AZ Alkmaar3
58%
SITALK
Adjusted goals3.23.2
Shot-based xG1.52.0
Non-shot xG1.81.5
9/26
PEC Zwolle4
45%27%
Sparta0
28%
ZWOROT
Adjusted goals3.30.0
Shot-based xG2.40.6
Non-shot xG1.70.9
9/25
Twente3
41%32%
Groningen1
27%
TWNGRN
Adjusted goals2.71.1
Shot-based xG1.50.8
Non-shot xG0.71.5
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Eredivisiewin league
Ajax9 pts
75.1
2.4
1.0
+5379<1%87%69%
PSV7 pts
63.7
1.9
1.1
+3167<1%44%14%
AZ Alkmaar2 pts
60.2
1.8
1.2
+2360<1%21%6%
Feyenoord7 pts
57.9
1.9
1.3
+2160<1%20%6%
Vitesse6 pts
51.5
1.6
1.4
+13551%10%2%
Utrecht4 pts
50.6
1.7
1.4
+9533%8%2%
Heerenveen9 pts
42.1
1.5
1.6
-1485%3%<1%
Willem II4 pts
44.1
1.4
1.5
+1467%2%<1%
Heracles4 pts
42.3
1.4
1.5
-64410%1%<1%
Twente7 pts
38.1
1.2
1.6
-64311%1%<1%
Groningen3 pts
41.4
1.1
1.3
-64311%<1%<1%
PEC Zwolle4 pts
39.8
1.4
1.6
-54213%<1%<1%
Sparta0 pts
36.7
1.2
1.7
-173728%<1%<1%
VVV-Venlo4 pts
32.9
1.2
1.8
-163629%<1%<1%
Emmen1 pt
33.6
1.2
1.8
-193437%<1%<1%
Fortuna Sittard1 pt
31.8
1.2
1.8
-243245%<1%<1%
ADO Den Haag0 pts
31.5
1.2
1.8
-243148%<1%<1%
RKC0 pts
29.1
1.0
1.8
-263052%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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