Updated April 18, 2021, at 9:59 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Eredivisie

2020-21

Netherlands

Updated April 15, 2021, at 4:57 p.m.

Upcoming matches
April 20-26
4/22
Ajax
58%
22%
Utrecht
19%
4/23
Willem II
53%
26%
RKC
21%
4/24
Heerenveen
43%
27%
PEC Zwolle
30%
4/24
Sparta
56%
25%
VVV-Venlo
20%
4/24
PSV
81%
16%
Groningen
4%
4/25
Emmen
45%
30%
Heracles
26%
4/25
ADO Den Haag
31%
29%
Fortuna Sittard
40%
4/25
Twente
34%
28%
Utrecht
38%
4/25
Feyenoord
54%
26%
Vitesse
20%
4/25
Ajax
60%
22%
AZ Alkmaar
17%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
April 6-12
4/11
RKC0
7%14%
Ajax1
79%
WLWAJX
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.50.9
Non-shot xG0.43.2
4/11
VVV-Venlo0
11%18%
PSV2
72%
VVVPSV
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.21.8
Non-shot xG0.72.8
4/11
Groningen0
42%29%
Heerenveen2
29%
GRNHER
Adjusted goals0.01.7
Shot-based xG1.32.1
Non-shot xG1.61.2
4/11
Utrecht1
41%26%
Feyenoord2
32%
UTRFEY
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.90.3
Non-shot xG1.20.7
4/10
PEC Zwolle1
38%29%
Twente0
34%
ZWOTWN
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.60.9
Non-shot xG0.31.9
4/10
Fortuna Sittard1
44%28%
Emmen3
27%
SITEMM
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.82.9
Non-shot xG0.71.0
4/10
AZ Alkmaar2
71%19%
Sparta0
10%
ALKROT
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG2.80.3
Non-shot xG2.30.8
4/10
Heracles4
47%28%
Willem II0
25%
HERWIL
Adjusted goals4.00.0
Shot-based xG1.80.6
Non-shot xG1.00.9
4/9
Vitesse0
79%16%
ADO Den Haag0
5%
VITADO
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.40.2
Non-shot xG1.90.5
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Eredivisiewin league
Ajax72 pts
82.4
2.7
0.8
+7585>99%>99%
PSV61 pts
68.7
2.1
1.0
+417274%<1%
AZ Alkmaar61 pts
63.9
2.0
1.2
+317026%<1%
Feyenoord54 pts
60.2
1.8
1.2
+3263<1%
Vitesse56 pts
50.6
1.5
1.3
+1762<1%
Utrecht43 pts
56.6
1.8
1.3
+1052<1%
Groningen46 pts
39.4
1.1
1.4
-151<1%
Heracles39 pts
43.0
1.3
1.4
-945
Twente37 pts
42.5
1.3
1.4
+445
Heerenveen37 pts
39.4
1.4
1.7
-343
Sparta34 pts
41.9
1.4
1.6
-641
Fortuna Sittard34 pts
35.9
1.2
1.7
-1440
PEC Zwolle32 pts
35.4
1.2
1.7
-1038
RKC26 pts
30.0
1.0
1.8
-213016%
Willem II22 pts
33.6
1.2
1.8
-322851%
Emmen21 pts
36.1
1.2
1.6
-302758%
VVV-Venlo22 pts
27.0
1.1
2.0
-412676%
ADO Den Haag16 pts
22.7
0.9
2.0
-4620>99%
Forecast from
Season

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