Updated Jan. 19, 2021, at 4:56 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Eredivisie

2020-21

Netherlands

Updated Jan. 17, 2021, at 12:48 p.m.

Upcoming matches
January 19-25
1/22
Willem II
46%
28%
PEC Zwolle
26%
1/23
ADO Den Haag
44%
27%
Emmen
29%
1/23
Vitesse
58%
27%
Groningen
16%
1/23
PSV
85%
11%
RKC
3%
1/23
Heracles
47%
27%
Heerenveen
25%
1/24
Fortuna Sittard
7%
14%
Ajax
78%
1/24
Utrecht
55%
24%
Sparta
20%
1/24
Twente
58%
23%
VVV-Venlo
19%
1/24
Feyenoord
46%
27%
AZ Alkmaar
27%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
January 12-18
1/17
Ajax1
70%19%
Feyenoord0
11%
AJXFEY
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.70.8
Non-shot xG2.51.5
1/17
VVV-Venlo1
39%25%
Heerenveen1
36%
VVVHER
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.21.5
Non-shot xG0.61.9
1/17
Groningen2
45%30%
Twente2
25%
GRNTWN
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.81.3
Non-shot xG1.41.1
1/17
RKC1
38%27%
Willem II1
34%
WLWWIL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.50.9
Non-shot xG1.41.0
1/16
AZ Alkmaar2
82%13%
ADO Den Haag1
5%
ALKADO
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG3.20.9
Non-shot xG3.70.2
1/16
PEC Zwolle0
50%27%
Fortuna Sittard2
23%
ZWOSIT
Adjusted goals0.01.6
Shot-based xG0.41.6
Non-shot xG0.91.1
1/16
Utrecht2
54%26%
Heracles0
20%
UTRHER
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.80.1
Non-shot xG1.50.4
1/16
Sparta3
19%24%
PSV5
57%
ROTPSV
Adjusted goals3.24.7
Shot-based xG1.41.9
Non-shot xG1.11.5
1/16
Emmen1
22%26%
Vitesse4
52%
EMMVIT
Adjusted goals1.13.7
Shot-based xG1.61.6
Non-shot xG0.71.9
1/14
Willem II2
41%30%
Groningen3
29%
WILGRN
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.12.0
Non-shot xG1.61.0
1/14
Twente1
10%18%
Ajax3
72%
TWNAJX
Adjusted goals1.12.6
Shot-based xG0.93.4
Non-shot xG0.73.0
1/14
Heerenveen1
54%25%
RKC1
21%
HERWLW
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.21.2
Non-shot xG1.31.6
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Eredivisiewin league
Ajax41 pts
80.1
2.7
0.9
+7781<1%97%86%
PSV37 pts
66.1
2.1
1.2
+3971<1%53%8%
Vitesse38 pts
53.3
1.6
1.3
+2666<1%20%2%
Feyenoord35 pts
60.8
1.8
1.1
+3165<1%19%2%
AZ Alkmaar34 pts
61.4
2.0
1.2
+2664<1%12%1%
Groningen31 pts
43.5
1.2
1.3
+354<1%<1%<1%
Twente28 pts
44.0
1.5
1.6
+851<1%<1%<1%
Utrecht21 pts
52.8
1.7
1.4
+448<1%<1%<1%
Sparta21 pts
43.0
1.5
1.6
-245<1%<1%<1%
Heerenveen22 pts
39.9
1.4
1.7
-642<1%<1%<1%
Heracles18 pts
41.1
1.2
1.4
-10413%<1%<1%
Fortuna Sittard19 pts
35.7
1.3
1.8
-15395%<1%<1%
PEC Zwolle17 pts
37.2
1.1
1.5
-14377%<1%<1%
VVV-Venlo16 pts
28.9
1.2
2.0
-343135%<1%<1%
RKC14 pts
29.1
1.0
1.8
-273041%<1%<1%
Willem II10 pts
35.1
1.3
1.8
-242944%<1%<1%
ADO Den Haag10 pts
25.6
1.0
2.0
-402574%<1%<1%
Emmen5 pts
27.8
1.1
1.9
-422189%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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