| Team rating | chance of finishing group | round-by-round probabilities | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| team | group | spi | off. | def. | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | make knockout phase | make round of 16 | make qtrs | make semis | make final | win final | |
 West Ham18 pts | B | 73.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | ✓ | — | — | ✓ | ✓ | 73% | 52% | 34% | 20% | |
 Villarreal13 pts | C | 70.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | ✓ | — | — | ✓ | ✓ | 70% | 46% | 28% | 15% | |
 Lazio | 69.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | ✓ | 91% | 63% | 41% | 25% | 14% | |||||
 Nice9 pts | D | 67.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | ✓ | — | — | ✓ | ✓ | 67% | 41% | 24% | 12% | |
 Fiorentina13 pts | A | 68.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | — | ✓ | — | ✓ | 54% | 37% | 24% | 15% | 8% | |
 AZ Alkmaar15 pts | E | 61.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | ✓ | — | — | ✓ | ✓ | 55% | 28% | 13% | 6% | |
 Braga | 66.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | ✓ | 46% | 30% | 19% | 11% | 5% | |||||
 Bodø/Glimt | 59.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | ✓ | 59% | 33% | 16% | 7% | 3% | |||||
 Gent8 pts | F | 57.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | — | ✓ | — | ✓ | 64% | 33% | 16% | 7% | 3% | |
 Başakşehir13 pts | A | 51.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | ✓ | — | — | ✓ | ✓ | 46% | 18% | 6% | 2% | |
 Dnipro-110 pts | E | 54.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | — | ✓ | — | ✓ | 63% | 32% | 13% | 5% | 2% | |
 Partizan9 pts | D | 53.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | — | ✓ | — | ✓ | 60% | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | |
 Anderlecht8 pts | B | 51.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | — | ✓ | — | ✓ | 68% | 34% | 13% | 5% | 2% | |
 Trabzonspor | 53.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | ✓ | 66% | 28% | 11% | 4% | 2% | |||||
 Lech Poznań9 pts | C | 50.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | — | ✓ | — | ✓ | 41% | 20% | 8% | 2% | <1% | |
 Qarabağ | 48.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | ✓ | 36% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | |||||
 Sheriff | 49.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | ✓ | 40% | 17% | 6% | 2% | <1% | |||||
 Djurgården16 pts | F | 41.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | ✓ | — | — | ✓ | ✓ | 29% | 7% | 2% | <1% | |
 Sivasspor11 pts | G | 40.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 | ✓ | — | — | ✓ | ✓ | 27% | 6% | 1% | <1% | |
 AEK Larnaca | 43.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | ✓ | 37% | 14% | 4% | 1% | <1% | |||||
 Ludogorets | 42.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | ✓ | 32% | 11% | 3% | <1% | <1% | |||||
 Basel11 pts | H | 42.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | — | ✓ | — | ✓ | 34% | 11% | 3% | <1% | <1% | |
 Slovan11 pts | H | 37.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | ✓ | — | — | ✓ | ✓ | 24% | 5% | <1% | <1% | |
 CFR Cluj10 pts | G | 41.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | — | ✓ | — | ✓ | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 Slavia Prague8 pts | G | 63.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | — | — | ✓ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
 1. FC Köln8 pts | D | 69.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | — | — | ✓ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
 Hapoel Be'er7 pts | C | 49.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | — | — | ✓ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
 Molde7 pts | F | 57.0 | 1.9 | 1.4 | — | — | ✓ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
 Apollon Limassol7 pts | E | 44.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | — | — | ✓ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
 Hearts6 pts | A | 46.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | — | — | ✓ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
 Silkeborg6 pts | B | 45.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | — | — | ✓ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
 Pyunik6 pts | H | 23.8 | 0.9 | 1.9 | — | — | ✓ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
 Žalgiris5 pts | H | 31.0 | 1.1 | 1.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
 Slovácko5 pts | D | 58.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
 Ballkani4 pts | G | 33.8 | 1.2 | 1.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
 Vaduz2 pts | E | 30.6 | 1.0 | 1.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
 Shamrock Rovers2 pts | F | 20.6 | 0.7 | 1.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
 Riga FS2 pts | A | 32.2 | 1.2 | 1.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
 Austria Vienna2 pts | C | 43.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
 Steaua Bucuresti2 pts | B | 51.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
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