Updated Apr. 21, 2018 at 8:58 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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La Liga

2017-18 season

Spain

Updated Apr. 21, 2018, at 8:58 a.m.

Upcoming matches
4/21
Celta Vigo
44%
25%
Valencia
31%
4/22
Girona
52%
29%
Espanyol
20%
4/22
Málaga
29%
28%
Real Sociedad
44%
4/22
Las Palmas
37%
29%
Alavés
34%
4/22
Atlético Madrid
63%
24%
Real Betis
13%
4/23
Athletic Bilbao
61%
24%
Levante
15%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
4/21
Eibar0
47%32%
Getafe1
21%
EIBGET
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.50.7
Non-shot xG1.20.4
4/20
Leganés0
52%28%
Deportivo0
20%
LEGDEP
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.71.0
Non-shot xG1.10.8
4/19
Levante1
44%30%
Málaga0
25%
LEVMGA
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.50.6
Non-shot xG1.60.8
4/19
Real Betis1
68%20%
Las Palmas0
12%
BETPAL
Adjusted goals0.80.0
Shot-based xG1.40.0
Non-shot xG1.60.4
4/19
Real Sociedad3
36%27%
Atlético Madrid0
37%
SOCATL
Adjusted goals2.40.0
Shot-based xG0.70.6
Non-shot xG1.41.1
4/19
Alavés1
46%28%
Girona2
26%
ALAGIR
Adjusted goals1.11.7
Shot-based xG0.81.7
Non-shot xG1.41.5
4/18
Real Madrid1
84%11%
Athletic Bilbao1
6%
MADBIL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.90.9
Non-shot xG3.10.8
4/18
Espanyol0
43%33%
Eibar1
25%
ESPEIB
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.50.3
Non-shot xG0.80.8
4/18
Valencia1
56%26%
Getafe2
17%
VALGET
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.00.4
Non-shot xG1.01.0
4/17
Villarreal2
50%29%
Leganés1
22%
VLRLEG
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.20.3
Non-shot xG1.50.8
4/17
Celta Vigo2
20%20%
Barcelona2
60%
VIGBAR
Adjusted goals1.92.1
Shot-based xG3.22.2
Non-shot xG1.71.7
4/17
Deportivo0
36%25%
Sevilla0
40%
DEPSEV
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG2.02.1
Non-shot xG1.51.9
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin La Ligawin league
Barcelona83 pts
91.2
3.1
0.5
28.48.80.7+7194>99%
Atlético Madrid71 pts
84.7
2.2
0.4
23.89.34.9+4081<1%
Real Madrid68 pts
91.9
3.6
0.6
23.38.86.0+5179>99%<1%
Valencia65 pts
76.1
2.1
0.7
22.26.39.6+2773>99%
Real Betis55 pts
73.2
2.0
0.7
18.85.313.9+162<1%
Villarreal51 pts
68.8
1.9
0.9
16.47.114.5+256<1%
Sevilla48 pts
73.2
2.1
0.9
15.97.214.9-1155
Girona47 pts
69.3
1.9
0.8
15.09.413.6-354
Getafe48 pts
73.3
1.7
0.5
14.510.313.2+954
Celta Vigo44 pts
72.5
2.1
0.8
14.09.114.9+651
Real Sociedad43 pts
78.4
2.3
0.7
14.18.215.8+850
Athletic Bilbao40 pts
71.3
1.9
0.7
11.114.312.6-248<1%
Eibar43 pts
71.2
1.7
0.6
13.28.116.8-1148
Leganés40 pts
66.2
1.5
0.7
12.17.918.0-1644<1%
Alavés38 pts
65.3
1.6
0.8
13.43.421.1-1944<1%
Espanyol36 pts
66.4
1.5
0.6
9.513.415.1-1542<1%
Levante34 pts
59.4
1.6
1.0
7.914.215.9-24382%
Deportivo28 pts
62.7
1.7
1.0
6.910.920.2-363298%
Las Palmas21 pts
54.7
1.5
1.1
6.27.424.4-4526>99%
Málaga17 pts
61.7
1.4
0.8
5.46.526.1-3223
Forecast from
Season

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