Updated Jan. 22, 2018 at 4:56 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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La Liga

2017-18 season

Spain

Updated Jan. 22, 2018 at 4:51 PM

Upcoming matches
1/26
Athletic Bilbao
52%
27%
Eibar
21%
1/27
Deportivo
55%
25%
Levante
20%
1/27
Valencia
23%
20%
Real Madrid
57%
1/27
Málaga
42%
28%
Girona
30%
1/27
Villarreal
43%
25%
Real Sociedad
32%
1/28
Leganés
53%
31%
Espanyol
17%
1/28
Atlético Madrid
82%
14%
Las Palmas
4%
1/28
Sevilla
53%
25%
Getafe
22%
1/28
Barcelona
92%
7%
Alavés
1%
1/29
Celta Vigo
59%
21%
Real Betis
20%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance.See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
1/22
Eibar1
58%26%
Málaga1
16%
EIBMGA
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.51.2
Non-shot xG1.60.2
1/21
Real Betis0
11%15%
Barcelona5
75%
BETBAR
Adjusted goals0.04.5
Shot-based xG0.42.5
Non-shot xG0.52.2
1/21
Real Sociedad1
54%22%
Celta Vigo2
24%
SOCVIG
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG2.01.6
Non-shot xG1.90.9
1/21
Real Madrid7
87%9%
Deportivo1
4%
MADDEP
Adjusted goals6.31.1
Shot-based xG3.41.9
Non-shot xG3.60.6
1/21
Alavés2
41%33%
Leganés2
26%
ALALEG
Adjusted goals2.11.9
Shot-based xG1.71.4
Non-shot xG1.10.9
1/20
Las Palmas2
24%22%
Valencia1
54%
PALVAL
Adjusted goals1.91.1
Shot-based xG3.41.8
Non-shot xG1.81.0
1/20
Villarreal2
64%24%
Levante1
12%
VLRLEV
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.61.4
Non-shot xG1.61.3
1/20
Atlético Madrid1
67%23%
Girona1
10%
ATLGIR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.60.8
Non-shot xG2.10.8
1/20
Espanyol0
41%28%
Sevilla3
30%
ESPSEV
Adjusted goals0.02.7
Shot-based xG1.31.5
Non-shot xG1.11.8
1/19
Getafe2
40%30%
Athletic Bilbao2
30%
GETBIL
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG3.71.3
Non-shot xG1.50.6
1/15
Real Betis3
43%29%
Leganés2
28%
BETLEG
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG2.11.8
Non-shot xG1.51.0
1/14
Real Sociedad2
18%19%
Barcelona4
64%
SOCBAR
Adjusted goals2.13.8
Shot-based xG0.71.4
Non-shot xG1.51.4
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin La Ligawin league
Barcelona54 pts
95.3
3.4
0.2
31.25.41.3+8599<1%>99%>99%
Real Madrid35 pts
91.7
3.4
0.5
23.18.06.9+4977<1%97%<1%
Atlético Madrid43 pts
83.0
2.0
0.3
21.211.55.3+3075<1%94%<1%
Valencia40 pts
74.9
2.2
0.8
19.38.210.5+2166<1%59%<1%
Villarreal34 pts
71.3
1.9
0.8
16.78.512.8+559<1%17%<1%
Sevilla32 pts
73.4
2.1
0.8
17.26.414.4-158<1%14%<1%
Celta Vigo28 pts
72.5
2.1
0.9
15.38.214.6+854<1%5%<1%
Athletic Bilbao26 pts
74.8
2.0
0.7
13.612.312.1+453<1%4%<1%
Eibar28 pts
71.7
1.8
0.7
14.18.715.1-951<1%3%<1%
Girona27 pts
68.5
1.9
0.9
13.310.314.4-4501%2%<1%
Getafe27 pts
69.9
1.8
0.7
13.110.614.3+1501%1%<1%
Real Sociedad23 pts
75.2
2.3
0.8
13.59.115.4-1502%1%<1%
Leganés25 pts
69.7
1.6
0.6
13.58.915.6-5491%1%<1%
Real Betis27 pts
63.6
1.9
1.1
13.47.317.4-15473%<1%<1%
Espanyol24 pts
64.3
1.5
0.7
10.710.916.4-174310%<1%<1%
Alavés19 pts
64.0
1.6
0.8
11.05.521.5-223829%<1%<1%
Deportivo16 pts
62.8
1.8
1.0
9.48.320.3-293642%<1%<1%
Levante18 pts
57.4
1.5
1.0
6.913.317.8-263459%<1%<1%
Málaga12 pts
63.8
1.6
0.8
8.17.822.1-273268%<1%<1%
Las Palmas14 pts
54.7
1.7
1.3
7.95.824.3-483082%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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