Updated Oct. 20, 2019, at 10:38 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Liga MX

2019-20 Apertura season

Mexico

Updated Oct. 20, 2019, at 9:55 p.m.

Upcoming matches
October 15-21
10/20
San Luis
34%
28%
Querétaro
38%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
October 15-21
10/20
Monterrey1
58%25%
Guadalajara1
17%
MONGDL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.90.5
Non-shot xG2.31.1
10/20
Pumas UNAM1
43%27%
León2
30%
PUMLEO
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.21.6
Non-shot xG1.01.6
10/19
Necaxa2
34%27%
Club América2
39%
NECAME
Adjusted goals1.72.1
Shot-based xG0.60.7
Non-shot xG1.71.7
10/19
Pachuca0
68%20%
FC Juárez1
12%
PACFCJ
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.20.7
Non-shot xG1.10.9
10/19
Cruz Azul2
60%24%
Morelia3
16%
CAZMOR
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.12.0
Non-shot xG1.80.7
10/18
Santos Laguna4
52%24%
Tijuana1
24%
SANTIJ
Adjusted goals3.81.1
Shot-based xG3.10.6
Non-shot xG1.00.6
10/18
Veracruz1
13%22%
Tigres UANL3
65%
VERTIG
Adjusted goals0.83.2
Shot-based xG1.60.7
Non-shot xG2.30.5
10/18
Puebla0
42%29%
Atlas1
29%
PUEATL
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.80.8
Non-shot xG1.21.5
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionmake playoffswin apertura
Tigres UANL23 pts
57.0
1.5
1.0
+133297%21%
Club América22 pts
56.9
1.6
1.1
+63090%17%
Santos Laguna26 pts
53.7
1.6
1.3
+1233>99%15%
León23 pts
52.2
1.6
1.3
+123196%13%
Necaxa25 pts
46.4
1.4
1.4
+103094%8%
Querétaro21 pts
44.4
1.3
1.3
+72978%5%
Pachuca18 pts
50.4
1.6
1.4
+62538%4%
Monterrey17 pts
54.0
1.5
1.2
+02422%4%
Morelia19 pts
43.4
1.3
1.4
+12644%3%
Pumas UNAM18 pts
46.0
1.2
1.2
+32537%3%
Atlas21 pts
41.3
1.1
1.3
+22646%2%
Tijuana18 pts
43.1
1.4
1.5
-42533%2%
Cruz Azul16 pts
55.2
1.5
1.1
+1227%1%
San Luis17 pts
34.6
1.0
1.5
-62312%<1%
Guadalajara13 pts
42.4
1.2
1.3
-4214%<1%
Toluca13 pts
41.1
1.2
1.4
-719<1%<1%
Puebla13 pts
39.7
1.1
1.4
-1119<1%<1%
FC Juárez14 pts
33.7
0.9
1.4
-8191%<1%
Veracruz4 pts
26.3
0.9
1.8
-318<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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