Updated 9:36 PM EDT | Mar 25, 2017

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for nine leagues, updated after each match.

Liga MX
Upcoming
3/31
Veracruz
31%
29%
Cruz Azul
40%
4/1
Chiapas
32%
27%
Pumas UNAM
42%
4/1
Morelia
38%
28%
Guadalajara
34%
4/1
Tigres UANL
51%
27%
León
22%
4/1
Atlas
36%
28%
Tijuana
36%
4/1
Pachuca
52%
26%
Puebla
22%
4/1
Club América
41%
27%
Monterrey
32%
4/2
Toluca
49%
27%
Necaxa
23%
4/2
Santos Laguna
45%
27%
Querétaro
28%
See all
Completed
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
3/19
Puebla0
46%26%
Morelia1
28%
PUEMOR
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.60.6
Non-shot xG1.00.4
3/19
Pumas UNAM2
41%27%
Club América3
32%
PUMAME
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG2.41.0
Non-shot xG1.81.1
3/18
Guadalajara2
55%26%
Veracruz0
19%
GDLVER
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG0.90.4
Non-shot xG2.01.4
3/18
Necaxa2
50%28%
Chiapas2
22%
NECCHI
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG0.90.7
Non-shot xG1.51.0
3/18
León2
43%28%
Toluca3
30%
LEOTOL
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG2.01.7
Non-shot xG1.00.9
3/18
Monterrey2
52%26%
Atlas0
22%
MONATL
Adjusted goals2.00.0
Shot-based xG2.10.7
Non-shot xG2.00.5
3/18
Cruz Azul0
39%30%
Tigres UANL0
31%
CAZTIG
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.70.2
Non-shot xG1.20.4
3/18
Querétaro3
34%28%
Pachuca0
38%
QTOPAC
Adjusted goals2.80.0
Shot-based xG0.80.5
Non-shot xG0.71.2
3/17
Tijuana1
49%26%
Santos Laguna1
25%
TIJSAN
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.40.4
Non-shot xG1.20.7
3/5
Puebla0
38%28%
Tigres UANL2
34%
PUETIG
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG1.11.7
Non-shot xG1.50.5
3/5
Pumas UNAM2
46%26%
Santos Laguna1
28%
PUMSAN
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.32.5
Non-shot xG1.71.8
3/4
Guadalajara2
44%28%
Toluca0
28%
GDLTOL
Adjusted goals2.00.0
Shot-based xG0.60.1
Non-shot xG1.51.3
See all
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsrelegatedrele-gatedmake playoffswin clausura
Monterrey19 pts
1.3
1.5
8.15.93.0+103095%17%
Pachuca17 pts
1.1
1.5
7.93.95.1+32880%12%
Guadalajara20 pts
1.0
1.5
8.54.04.6+62991%12%
Tijuana17 pts
1.1
1.5
7.93.95.2+728<1%83%11%
Toluca19 pts
1.0
1.6
8.62.95.5+32986%9%
Club América14 pts
1.1
1.5
7.03.96.1+22558%8%
Tigres UANL12 pts
1.0
1.3
5.95.06.1+42337%6%
Querétaro15 pts
1.0
1.6
6.54.95.6+324<1%54%5%
Pumas UNAM14 pts
1.2
1.8
6.83.86.3+12452%5%
Santos Laguna13 pts
1.1
1.7
4.78.93.4+323<1%42%4%
Atlas14 pts
0.9
1.6
6.53.96.6+023<1%41%3%
Morelia15 pts
1.0
1.7
6.24.95.9-22316%39%3%
Cruz Azul10 pts
1.0
1.5
4.46.06.6-219<1%11%2%
Chiapas13 pts
0.9
1.8
5.92.98.2-7216%15%<1%
Necaxa10 pts
0.9
1.7
4.26.06.8-619<1%7%<1%
Puebla9 pts
1.0
1.8
4.24.97.9-717<1%4%<1%
León6 pts
1.1
1.8
3.54.98.6-8161%<1%
Veracruz9 pts
0.8
1.8
4.81.910.3-91677%2%<1%
Forecast from

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