Updated Aug. 19, 2019, at 12:20 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Liga MX

2019-20 Apertura season

Mexico

Updated Aug. 18, 2019, at 9:59 p.m.

Upcoming matches
August 20-26
8/23
Veracruz
38%
29%
San Luis
34%
8/23
Morelia
39%
28%
Pumas UNAM
33%
8/23
Santos Laguna
38%
26%
Monterrey
36%
8/24
Querétaro
38%
27%
León
35%
8/24
Pachuca
59%
23%
Atlas
18%
8/24
Cruz Azul
66%
22%
Puebla
12%
8/24
Tigres UANL
41%
29%
Club América
30%
8/25
Toluca
42%
28%
Tijuana
30%
8/25
Guadalajara
44%
27%
Necaxa
29%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
August 13-19
8/18
FC Juárez0
30%29%
Querétaro2
41%
FCJQTO
Adjusted goals0.01.4
Shot-based xG0.51.8
Non-shot xG1.22.9
8/18
Necaxa3
37%27%
Santos Laguna0
37%
NECSAN
Adjusted goals2.60.0
Shot-based xG1.52.4
Non-shot xG1.92.4
8/18
Pumas UNAM2
66%21%
Veracruz0
13%
PUMVER
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG3.20.4
Non-shot xG2.20.5
8/17
Monterrey2
61%23%
Toluca0
16%
MONTOL
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.40.7
Non-shot xG2.10.5
8/17
Club América1
66%22%
Morelia0
13%
AMEMOR
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.81.1
Non-shot xG1.71.1
8/17
León4
52%26%
Guadalajara3
22%
LEOGDL
Adjusted goals4.23.2
Shot-based xG3.41.7
Non-shot xG1.21.0
8/17
San Luis1
19%25%
Tigres UANL1
56%
ASLTIG
Adjusted goals1.10.8
Shot-based xG0.90.1
Non-shot xG0.70.4
8/16
Atlas1
30%28%
Cruz Azul3
41%
ATLCAZ
Adjusted goals1.13.2
Shot-based xG0.21.8
Non-shot xG0.61.2
8/16
Puebla0
34%26%
Pachuca4
40%
PUEPAC
Adjusted goals0.04.1
Shot-based xG1.22.3
Non-shot xG1.01.7
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionmake playoffswin apertura
Club América13 pts
60.7
1.6
1.0
+153796%21%
Monterrey9 pts
60.3
1.7
1.0
+113386%18%
Tigres UANL10 pts
57.2
1.5
1.0
+103282%14%
Cruz Azul8 pts
55.2
1.5
1.1
+62966%10%
Santos Laguna12 pts
52.9
1.6
1.3
+103280%9%
León7 pts
52.2
1.5
1.3
+83070%8%
Querétaro13 pts
44.8
1.2
1.3
+83175%4%
Pumas UNAM9 pts
46.1
1.3
1.3
+32645%3%
Pachuca4 pts
50.9
1.6
1.4
+22329%3%
Tijuana7 pts
45.3
1.3
1.3
+22646%3%
Necaxa7 pts
44.8
1.3
1.3
+62536%2%
Guadalajara7 pts
44.1
1.3
1.3
+12534%2%
Atlas9 pts
37.8
1.1
1.4
-62322%<1%
Toluca1 pt
44.0
1.3
1.4
-7199%<1%
Morelia3 pts
41.5
1.2
1.4
-42113%<1%
San Luis4 pts
31.9
0.9
1.5
-12185%<1%
Puebla1 pt
36.5
1.1
1.5
-15163%<1%
FC Juárez3 pts
29.5
0.9
1.6
-15151%<1%
Veracruz1 pt
26.4
0.9
1.9
-2412<1%<1%
Forecast from
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