Updated May 5, 2021, at 9:14 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Liga MX

2021 Guardianes

Mexico

Updated May 3, 2021, at 12:01 a.m.

Upcoming matches
Knockout Round
5/8
Atlas
55%
Tigres UANL
45%
5/8
Santos Laguna
70%
Querétaro
30%
5/9
Pachuca
59%
Guadalajara
41%
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
April 27 - May 3
5/2
Pumas UNAM0
35%32%
Club América1
33%
PUMAME
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG2.11.5
Non-shot xG1.61.3
5/2
Santos Laguna0
45%29%
Puebla0
26%
SANPUE
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.91.0
Non-shot xG2.10.6
5/1
Monterrey1
55%26%
Mazatlán0
20%
MONMAZ
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG3.30.3
Non-shot xG2.70.4
5/1
Cruz Azul1
53%26%
Tijuana1
21%
CAZTIJ
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.30.5
Non-shot xG2.01.0
5/1
León2
50%26%
Querétaro1
24%
LEOQTO
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.60.7
Non-shot xG1.31.5
5/1
Guadalajara0
35%29%
Tigres UANL0
36%
GDLTIG
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.10.5
Non-shot xG1.30.5
4/30
FC Juárez1
36%27%
Toluca0
37%
FCJTOL
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.70.7
Non-shot xG0.81.1
4/30
Necaxa1
31%31%
Atlas5
37%
NECATL
Adjusted goals1.14.3
Shot-based xG0.32.6
Non-shot xG0.91.6
4/29
San Luis1
24%27%
Pachuca5
49%
ASLPAC
Adjusted goals1.15.3
Shot-based xG0.91.9
Non-shot xG1.01.1
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionmake playoffsfirst-round byewin Guardianes
Club América38 pts
56.6
1.5
1.0
+123821%
Monterrey28 pts
58.0
1.5
1.0
+92821%
Cruz Azul41 pts
55.6
1.5
1.1
+154120%
León26 pts
50.4
1.5
1.3
+2267%
Puebla28 pts
43.6
1.2
1.3
+11286%
Tigres UANL23 pts
52.4
1.4
1.1
-1235%
Atlas25 pts
49.2
1.2
1.1
+5255%
Santos Laguna26 pts
47.4
1.3
1.2
+5265%
Pachuca23 pts
48.2
1.3
1.2
+1235%
Guadalajara23 pts
47.1
1.3
1.2
+0233%
Toluca22 pts
39.8
1.3
1.5
+222<1%
Querétaro21 pts
36.5
1.0
1.4
-621<1%
Mazatlán21 pts
35.7
1.1
1.5
-721
Tijuana20 pts
39.0
1.1
1.4
-220
Pumas UNAM18 pts
42.0
1.0
1.2
-218
FC Juárez15 pts
34.6
1.0
1.5
-1615
San Luis12 pts
35.1
1.2
1.6
-1312
Necaxa11 pts
35.6
1.1
1.5
-1511
Forecast from
Season

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