Updated Dec. 12, 2019, at 5:05 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Liga MX

2019-20 Apertura season

Mexico

Updated Dec. 8, 2019, at 9:31 p.m.

Upcoming matches
Final, First leg
12/26
Monterrey
42%
26%
Club América
31%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Semifinals, Second leg
12/8
Club América2
60%22%
Morelia0
18%
AMEMOR
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.60.6
Non-shot xG1.61.1
12/7
Necaxa0
35%26%
Monterrey1
39%
NECMON
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.81.0
Non-shot xG1.30.7
See more
Team ratinground-by-round probabilities
teamspioff.def.make playoffsmake semismake finalwin apertura
Club América
59.6
1.7
1.1
54%
Monterrey
57.1
1.6
1.1
46%
Necaxa
46.9
1.4
1.3
Morelia
45.3
1.4
1.4
Santos Laguna
56.0
1.7
1.3
León
50.1
1.5
1.3
Tigres UANL
55.8
1.4
1.0
Querétaro
46.9
1.4
1.3
Guadalajara
44.3
1.3
1.3
Pachuca
53.2
1.6
1.3
Tijuana
40.4
1.3
1.5
Cruz Azul
54.5
1.5
1.1
Pumas UNAM
46.7
1.3
1.2
Atlas
37.3
1.1
1.4
San Luis
33.7
1.0
1.5
FC Juárez
33.5
1.0
1.5
Puebla
39.4
1.2
1.4
Toluca
37.5
1.1
1.4
Veracruz
24.9
0.9
1.8
Forecast from
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