Updated Sep. 26, 2017 at 4:51 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Liga MX

2017-18 Apertura season

Mexico

Updated Sep. 17, 2017 at 9:42 PM

Upcoming matches
9/26
Guadalajara
49%
28%
Lobos BUAP
23%
9/26
Puebla
40%
30%
Atlas
30%
9/26
Veracruz
35%
30%
Morelia
35%
9/26
Tijuana
35%
29%
Tigres UANL
36%
9/27
León
41%
28%
Club América
32%
9/27
Necaxa
45%
31%
Querétaro
25%
9/27
Toluca
49%
28%
Pumas UNAM
23%
9/27
Monterrey
57%
25%
Santos Laguna
19%
9/27
Pachuca
37%
30%
Cruz Azul
33%
9/29
Morelia
41%
30%
Tijuana
30%
9/29
Atlas
49%
29%
Veracruz
22%
9/30
Querétaro
25%
27%
Monterrey
47%
9/30
Lobos BUAP
36%
27%
León
37%
9/30
Tigres UANL
52%
28%
Guadalajara
20%
9/30
Pachuca
45%
29%
Necaxa
26%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
9/17
Veracruz0
43%28%
Lobos BUAP1
29%
VERBUAP
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.61.4
Non-shot xG1.21.2
9/17
Toluca3
48%29%
Querétaro2
23%
TOLQTO
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG1.51.9
Non-shot xG1.00.6
9/16
Guadalajara1
49%29%
Pumas UNAM1
22%
GDLPUM
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.20.7
Non-shot xG1.80.2
9/16
Necaxa1
45%32%
Puebla1
23%
NECPUE
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.51.7
Non-shot xG1.30.6
9/16
León3
44%27%
Pachuca1
29%
LEOPAC
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG1.31.0
Non-shot xG1.21.4
9/16
Monterrey2
59%25%
Atlas1
16%
MONATL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.60.7
Non-shot xG1.40.7
9/16
Cruz Azul2
46%29%
Santos Laguna1
25%
CAZSAN
Adjusted goals1.71.1
Shot-based xG1.50.5
Non-shot xG1.90.7
9/15
Tijuana1
39%30%
Club América1
31%
TIJAME
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.31.1
Non-shot xG1.70.6
9/15
Morelia3
30%29%
Tigres UANL3
41%
MORTIG
Adjusted goals3.23.2
Shot-based xG3.41.0
Non-shot xG1.51.1
9/10
Santos Laguna0
45%27%
Toluca0
28%
SANTOL
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.90.4
Non-shot xG1.30.6
9/10
Pumas UNAM0
39%30%
Tijuana2
32%
PUMTIJ
Adjusted goals0.01.6
Shot-based xG0.41.4
Non-shot xG1.20.7
9/9
Club América2
54%27%
Veracruz0
20%
AMEVER
Adjusted goals1.70.0
Shot-based xG1.80.8
Non-shot xG1.40.8
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.make playoffswin clausura
Monterrey23 pts
55.7
1.5
1.1
11.04.11.8+1837>99%27%
Tigres UANL13 pts
52.3
1.5
1.2
6.96.53.6+102784%15%
Cruz Azul15 pts
46.4
1.2
1.1
6.38.42.3+62785%11%
Club América17 pts
46.1
1.3
1.3
8.14.34.7+52889%10%
Toluca16 pts
41.9
1.2
1.3
6.96.23.8+22781%7%
Tijuana14 pts
43.2
1.2
1.2
6.84.45.8+12564%6%
León13 pts
43.8
1.3
1.4
7.03.26.7+12460%5%
Morelia13 pts
41.6
1.2
1.4
5.76.44.9+22353%4%
Necaxa13 pts
38.7
1.0
1.2
5.76.45.0-12349%3%
Guadalajara9 pts
41.7
1.1
1.2
3.88.44.8-22021%2%
Pachuca9 pts
42.0
1.3
1.5
5.82.29.0-42019%2%
Santos Laguna8 pts
43.2
1.3
1.4
4.27.25.6-22021%2%
Atlas7 pts
39.9
1.2
1.4
5.13.68.2-11919%2%
Lobos BUAP11 pts
36.6
1.2
1.6
5.34.27.5-32023%1%
Querétaro9 pts
37.0
1.1
1.5
4.55.37.1-71913%<1%
Puebla7 pts
36.9
1.0
1.4
3.66.37.0-9176%<1%
Veracruz10 pts
33.6
0.9
1.4
4.93.38.8-9189%<1%
Pumas UNAM7 pts
36.1
1.1
1.5
4.33.39.4-7165%<1%
Forecast from
season

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