Updated Feb. 20, 2019, at 2:55 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Liga MX

2018-19 Clausura season

Mexico

Updated Feb. 17, 2019, at 6:55 p.m.

Upcoming matches
2/22
Veracruz
21%
28%
Cruz Azul
50%
2/22
Atlas
26%
27%
Tigres UANL
47%
2/23
Querétaro
40%
29%
Morelia
31%
2/23
Club América
70%
20%
Lobos BUAP
10%
2/23
Monterrey
66%
21%
Puebla
12%
2/23
Necaxa
43%
28%
Tijuana
29%
2/23
Pachuca
47%
28%
Guadalajara
24%
2/24
Pumas UNAM
38%
28%
León
34%
2/24
Santos Laguna
46%
28%
Toluca
26%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
2/17
Lobos BUAP3
42%29%
Querétaro1
29%
BUAPQTO
Adjusted goals2.41.1
Shot-based xG1.41.0
Non-shot xG1.50.2
2/17
Pumas UNAM1
30%27%
Club América0
43%
PUMAME
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.01.5
Non-shot xG1.01.7
2/16
Guadalajara3
49%28%
Atlas0
23%
GDLATL
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG1.40.6
Non-shot xG0.51.0
2/16
León3
45%27%
Toluca0
28%
LEOTOL
Adjusted goals2.00.0
Shot-based xG2.60.2
Non-shot xG2.00.3
2/16
Tigres UANL3
62%23%
Necaxa2
15%
TIGNEC
Adjusted goals2.92.1
Shot-based xG0.90.9
Non-shot xG1.10.9
2/16
Cruz Azul1
45%29%
Santos Laguna2
26%
CAZSAN
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.61.1
Non-shot xG1.80.8
2/15
Tijuana3
61%26%
Veracruz0
13%
TIJVER
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG3.91.2
Non-shot xG2.20.5
2/15
Puebla1
32%28%
Pachuca1
39%
PUEPAC
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.51.5
Non-shot xG1.30.8
2/15
Morelia2
22%25%
Monterrey3
53%
MORMON
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.11.5
Non-shot xG1.02.1
2/10
Santos Laguna1
50%28%
Tijuana1
21%
SANTIJ
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.91.4
Non-shot xG0.60.7
2/10
Toluca1
45%29%
Cruz Azul1
26%
TOLCAZ
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.31.2
Non-shot xG1.01.0
2/9
Necaxa3
41%30%
Guadalajara3
30%
NECGDL
Adjusted goals3.23.2
Shot-based xG1.52.0
Non-shot xG1.71.3
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.make playoffswin clausura
Monterrey17 pts
63.2
1.8
1.0
10.34.52.2+1936—99%25%
Tigres UANL16 pts
60.9
1.6
1.0
10.13.63.3+1334—98%21%
Club América9 pts
60.1
1.7
1.0
8.72.85.4+829—82%16%
León14 pts
53.1
1.5
1.2
8.74.63.7+1631<1%91%10%
Pachuca11 pts
50.9
1.4
1.2
7.04.75.3+026<1%57%5%
Guadalajara14 pts
47.7
1.3
1.2
7.54.84.7+627<1%73%5%
Santos Laguna11 pts
49.1
1.4
1.2
6.94.75.4+125<1%55%4%
Cruz Azul8 pts
49.5
1.3
1.1
6.24.86.1+023<1%39%3%
Necaxa11 pts
45.0
1.4
1.4
6.74.85.4+225<1%53%3%
Tijuana10 pts
45.6
1.2
1.2
6.63.96.5+024—41%2%
Toluca7 pts
47.8
1.3
1.3
5.93.77.4-221—24%2%
Pumas UNAM9 pts
45.3
1.3
1.3
5.55.85.7+022<1%32%2%
Atlas10 pts
41.0
1.2
1.4
5.93.77.4-421<1%23%1%
Puebla9 pts
40.3
1.2
1.4
4.95.76.4-621<1%16%<1%
Lobos BUAP10 pts
35.3
1.1
1.6
5.43.68.0-820<1%13%<1%
Morelia4 pts
39.2
1.2
1.5
3.93.79.4-815<1%3%<1%
Querétaro0 pts
35.8
1.0
1.5
2.72.711.5-1911<1%<1%<1%
Veracruz2 pts
28.8
0.9
1.6
1.84.510.7-1810>99%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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