Updated Aug. 14, 2018 at 3:25 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 35 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

league-logo

Liga MX

2018-19 Apertura season

Mexico

Updated Aug. 12, 2018, at 11:09 p.m.

Upcoming matches
8/17
Veracruz
35%
30%
Guadalajara
35%
8/17
Atlas
39%
28%
Morelia
33%
8/18
Cruz Azul
54%
26%
León
20%
8/18
Pachuca
48%
28%
Lobos BUAP
24%
8/18
Necaxa
52%
27%
Puebla
21%
8/18
Querétaro
28%
29%
Club América
43%
8/18
Monterrey
55%
25%
Pumas UNAM
20%
8/19
Toluca
47%
28%
Tijuana
25%
8/19
Santos Laguna
41%
30%
Tigres UANL
30%
8/21
Morelia
43%
27%
Pachuca
30%
8/21
Pumas UNAM
51%
27%
Querétaro
22%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
8/12
Tijuana1
37%31%
Cruz Azul1
32%
TIJCAZ
Adjusted goals0.81.1
Shot-based xG2.10.5
Non-shot xG1.81.1
8/12
Guadalajara1
37%28%
Santos Laguna2
35%
GDLSAN
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.11.4
Non-shot xG1.70.8
8/12
Pumas UNAM0
46%26%
Pachuca0
28%
PUMPAC
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.90.6
Non-shot xG1.10.8
8/11
Club América3
40%28%
Monterrey0
32%
AMEMON
Adjusted goals2.50.0
Shot-based xG2.10.6
Non-shot xG1.20.4
8/11
León4
46%28%
Querétaro0
26%
LEOQTO
Adjusted goals3.70.0
Shot-based xG3.01.4
Non-shot xG1.91.9
8/11
Tigres UANL1
48%29%
Toluca2
23%
TIGTOL
Adjusted goals1.11.7
Shot-based xG0.80.8
Non-shot xG0.51.0
8/11
Lobos BUAP0
47%28%
Atlas0
25%
BUAPATL
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.21.6
Non-shot xG0.81.0
8/10
Morelia2
42%28%
Necaxa1
30%
MORNEC
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.61.4
Non-shot xG1.22.2
8/10
Puebla1
52%28%
Veracruz2
21%
PUEVER
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.51.2
Non-shot xG0.91.4
8/5
Tijuana1
49%27%
León1
24%
TIJLEO
Adjusted goals1.10.8
Shot-based xG1.81.5
Non-shot xG1.92.9
8/5
Santos Laguna2
52%26%
Puebla0
22%
SANPUE
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.50.1
Non-shot xG1.20.7
8/5
Toluca2
50%28%
Guadalajara2
22%
TOLGDL
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG2.32.3
Non-shot xG1.91.7
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.make playoffswin apertura
Monterrey9 pts
58.7
1.6
1.0
9.33.54.3+83188%18%
Club América9 pts
57.4
1.6
1.1
8.93.54.5+123087%15%
Cruz Azul10 pts
55.0
1.4
1.0
8.74.73.6+93187%13%
Tigres UANL6 pts
54.7
1.3
0.9
7.63.85.6+52767%10%
Santos Laguna9 pts
52.9
1.5
1.2
8.33.55.2+52875%9%
Toluca7 pts
52.3
1.5
1.2
7.44.55.1+52767%8%
Pumas UNAM10 pts
47.6
1.4
1.4
7.54.55.0+62769%6%
Tijuana5 pts
48.6
1.3
1.2
5.85.75.5+12343%4%
Necaxa6 pts
47.0
1.3
1.2
6.73.76.6-12445%4%
Morelia7 pts
44.9
1.4
1.4
6.34.56.2-12343%3%
León4 pts
45.6
1.4
1.4
5.54.47.0-12129%2%
Pachuca1 pt
46.4
1.3
1.3
4.74.77.6-41917%2%
Guadalajara1 pt
45.4
1.3
1.3
4.54.77.9-41815%1%
Lobos BUAP4 pts
41.9
1.2
1.4
4.74.67.6-41917%1%
Querétaro4 pts
40.2
1.1
1.3
4.84.87.5-81917%<1%
Puebla3 pts
40.4
1.2
1.4
4.73.68.6-91812%<1%
Atlas2 pts
40.9
1.1
1.3
3.85.77.5-101710%<1%
Veracruz4 pts
37.1
1.1
1.4
4.34.68.1-91811%<1%
Forecast from
Season

Comments