Updated Oct. 23, 2018 at 2:51 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

league-logo

Liga MX

2018-19 Apertura season

Mexico

Updated Oct. 21, 2018, at 8:53 p.m.

Upcoming matches
10/26
Santos Laguna
41%
28%
Monterrey
31%
10/26
Veracruz
25%
28%
Pachuca
47%
10/27
Necaxa
45%
30%
Atlas
26%
10/27
Guadalajara
47%
27%
Morelia
25%
10/27
Tigres UANL
67%
23%
Lobos BUAP
11%
10/27
Cruz Azul
35%
29%
Club América
36%
10/27
Tijuana
44%
28%
Pumas UNAM
28%
10/28
Toluca
49%
28%
Querétaro
23%
10/28
León
54%
26%
Puebla
21%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
10/21
Morelia2
48%26%
Puebla0
26%
MORPUE
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG0.80.5
Non-shot xG1.41.2
10/21
Pumas UNAM3
32%29%
Tigres UANL3
39%
PUMTIG
Adjusted goals3.23.2
Shot-based xG1.71.7
Non-shot xG1.41.5
10/21
Lobos BUAP1
33%29%
Guadalajara1
38%
BUAPGDL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.41.4
Non-shot xG1.12.0
10/20
Monterrey2
49%27%
Toluca1
24%
MONTOL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.11.0
Non-shot xG0.81.4
10/20
Necaxa0
43%28%
León2
28%
NECLEO
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.71.3
Non-shot xG1.20.9
10/20
Pachuca1
45%27%
Santos Laguna1
28%
PACSAN
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.70.9
Non-shot xG1.40.9
10/20
Club América3
52%27%
Tijuana0
20%
AMETIJ
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG2.00.5
Non-shot xG1.71.0
10/20
Querétaro2
36%31%
Cruz Azul0
34%
QTOCAZ
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG2.10.5
Non-shot xG1.71.3
10/19
Atlas4
42%31%
Veracruz3
27%
ATLVER
Adjusted goals3.83.2
Shot-based xG2.52.0
Non-shot xG1.00.7
10/7
Puebla2
49%27%
Lobos BUAP2
24%
PUEBUAP
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG0.51.1
Non-shot xG0.50.9
10/7
Toluca2
43%28%
Pachuca1
29%
TOLPAC
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG0.90.2
Non-shot xG0.61.2
10/6
Tijuana1
51%29%
Querétaro1
20%
TIJQTO
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.01.8
Non-shot xG1.81.7
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.make playoffswin apertura
Club América27 pts
60.1
1.7
1.0
10.04.03.0+1534>99%24%
Monterrey23 pts
54.5
1.5
1.1
8.93.05.0+53097%14%
Tigres UANL19 pts
57.8
1.5
1.0
7.05.14.9+92677%13%
Cruz Azul26 pts
51.2
1.3
1.1
9.63.14.3+1032>99%12%
Santos Laguna25 pts
52.3
1.5
1.2
8.55.13.4+93099%11%
Toluca22 pts
51.4
1.4
1.2
8.62.16.3+52887%9%
Pumas UNAM23 pts
48.1
1.4
1.3
7.46.13.6+92892%7%
Pachuca16 pts
50.8
1.4
1.2
5.85.16.1+42226%3%
Querétaro19 pts
44.2
1.2
1.2
6.45.25.4+12442%2%
Morelia19 pts
44.3
1.3
1.4
6.25.15.7-22431%2%
Guadalajara16 pts
49.2
1.3
1.2
5.55.16.4+02216%1%
León16 pts
48.1
1.4
1.3
6.62.18.3+12217%1%
Tijuana16 pts
46.8
1.3
1.2
5.65.16.3-62213%<1%
Puebla15 pts
40.3
1.2
1.4
5.14.17.8-8193%<1%
Necaxa12 pts
45.1
1.2
1.2
4.34.28.5-517<1%<1%
Lobos BUAP12 pts
39.1
1.1
1.4
3.94.19.0-916<1%<1%
Veracruz9 pts
34.2
1.0
1.5
2.84.010.2-2012<1%<1%
Atlas8 pts
39.8
1.1
1.4
3.13.110.8-1612<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

Comments