Liga MX Predictions

Liga MX

2019-20 Apertura season

Mexico

Updated Aug. 18, 2019, at 9:59 p.m.

Upcoming matches

August 20-26

8/23	Veracruz	38%	29%
	San Luis	34%

8/23	Morelia	39%	28%
	Pumas UNAM	33%

8/23	Santos Laguna	38%	26%
	Monterrey	36%

8/24	Querétaro	38%	27%
	León	35%

8/24	Pachuca	59%	23%
	Atlas	18%

8/24	Cruz Azul	66%	22%
	Puebla	12%

8/24	Tigres UANL	41%	29%
	Club América	30%

8/25	Toluca	42%	28%
	Tijuana	30%

8/25	Guadalajara	44%	27%
	Necaxa	29%

Completed matches

After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...

Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.

These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »

August 13-19

8/18	FC Juárez0	30%	29%
	Querétaro2	41%

	FCJ	QTO
Adjusted goals	0.0	1.4
Shot-based xG	0.5	1.8
Non-shot xG	1.2	2.9

8/18	Necaxa3	37%	27%
	Santos Laguna0	37%

	NEC	SAN
Adjusted goals	2.6	0.0
Shot-based xG	1.5	2.4
Non-shot xG	1.9	2.4

8/18	Pumas UNAM2	66%	21%
	Veracruz0	13%

	PUM	VER
Adjusted goals	2.1	0.0
Shot-based xG	3.2	0.4
Non-shot xG	2.2	0.5

8/17	Monterrey2	61%	23%
	Toluca0	16%

	MON	TOL
Adjusted goals	2.1	0.0
Shot-based xG	1.4	0.7
Non-shot xG	2.1	0.5

8/17	Club América1	66%	22%
	Morelia0	13%

	AME	MOR
Adjusted goals	1.1	0.0
Shot-based xG	0.8	1.1
Non-shot xG	1.7	1.1

8/17	León4	52%	26%
	Guadalajara3	22%

	LEO	GDL
Adjusted goals	4.2	3.2
Shot-based xG	3.4	1.7
Non-shot xG	1.2	1.0

8/17	San Luis1	19%	25%
	Tigres UANL1	56%

	ASL	TIG
Adjusted goals	1.1	0.8
Shot-based xG	0.9	0.1
Non-shot xG	0.7	0.4

8/16	Atlas1	30%	28%
	Cruz Azul3	41%

	ATL	CAZ
Adjusted goals	1.1	3.2
Shot-based xG	0.2	1.8
Non-shot xG	0.6	1.2

8/16	Puebla0	34%	26%
	Pachuca4	40%

	PUE	PAC
Adjusted goals	0.0	4.1
Shot-based xG	1.2	2.3
Non-shot xG	1.0	1.7

	Team rating				avg. simulated season		end-of-season probabilities

team	spi	off.	def.	goal diff.	proj. pts.pts.	Every position	make playoffs	win apertura
Club América13 pts	60.7	1.6	1.0	+15	37		96%	21%
Monterrey9 pts	60.3	1.7	1.0	+11	33		86%	18%
Tigres UANL10 pts	57.2	1.5	1.0	+10	32		82%	14%
Cruz Azul8 pts	55.2	1.5	1.1	+6	29		66%	10%
Santos Laguna12 pts	52.9	1.6	1.3	+10	32		80%	9%
León7 pts	52.2	1.5	1.3	+8	30		70%	8%
Querétaro13 pts	44.8	1.2	1.3	+8	31		75%	4%
Pumas UNAM9 pts	46.1	1.3	1.3	+3	26		45%	3%
Pachuca4 pts	50.9	1.6	1.4	+2	23		29%	3%
Tijuana7 pts	45.3	1.3	1.3	+2	26		46%	3%
Necaxa7 pts	44.8	1.3	1.3	+6	25		36%	2%
Guadalajara7 pts	44.1	1.3	1.3	+1	25		34%	2%
Atlas9 pts	37.8	1.1	1.4	-6	23		22%	<1%
Toluca1 pt	44.0	1.3	1.4	-7	19		9%	<1%
Morelia3 pts	41.5	1.2	1.4	-4	21		13%	<1%
San Luis4 pts	31.9	0.9	1.5	-12	18		5%	<1%
Puebla1 pt	36.5	1.1	1.5	-15	16		3%	<1%
FC Juárez3 pts	29.5	0.9	1.6	-15	15		1%	<1%
Veracruz1 pt	26.4	0.9	1.9	-24	12		<1%	<1%

Forecast from

Season

9/14	León	68%	20%
	FC Juárez	11%

9/21	Monterrey	69%	20%
	Puebla	11%

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

Liga MX

2019-20 Apertura season

Mexico

Updated Aug. 18, 2019, at 9:59 p.m.

Comments

8/30	Morelia	62%	23%
	Veracruz	15%

9/1	FC Juárez	17%	24%
	Monterrey	59%

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

Liga MX

2019-20 Apertura season

Mexico

Updated Aug. 18, 2019, at 9:59 p.m.

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Comments