Updated 12:33 AM EDT | Apr 30, 2017

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for nine leagues, updated after each match.

MLS
Upcoming
4/30
Atlanta
52%
25%
D.C. United
23%
5/3
Toronto FC
54%
24%
Orlando City
21%
5/3
Sporting KC
48%
27%
NY Red Bulls
25%
See all
Completed
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
4/29
LA Galaxy0
54%25%
Philadelphia0
22%
LAGPHI
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.00.4
Non-shot xG1.60.8
4/29
Seattle3
55%25%
New England3
20%
SEANWE
Adjusted goals3.23.2
Shot-based xG1.71.7
Non-shot xG3.31.4
4/29
Sporting KC3
54%26%
Real Salt Lake0
20%
SKCRSL
Adjusted goals2.60.0
Shot-based xG0.90.6
Non-shot xG1.00.7
4/29
Minnesota0
48%27%
San Jose1
25%
MNUSAN
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.61.3
Non-shot xG1.41.4
4/29
FC Dallas2
53%25%
Portland2
21%
DALPRT
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.20.6
Non-shot xG1.00.9
4/29
NY Red Bulls2
54%25%
Chicago1
21%
NWYCHI
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.01.3
Non-shot xG0.61.4
4/29
Columbus2
47%25%
NYCFC3
28%
CLBNYC
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.51.6
Non-shot xG1.21.7
4/29
Orlando City2
52%26%
Colorado0
22%
ORLCLR
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG1.60.1
Non-shot xG1.00.5
4/29
Montreal1
53%24%
Vancouver2
23%
MTLVAN
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.80.6
Non-shot xG2.11.0
4/28
Toronto FC2
55%25%
Houston0
21%
TORHOU
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.10.9
Non-shot xG1.21.4
4/23
Minnesota1
48%27%
Colorado0
25%
MNUCLR
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.91.0
Non-shot xG1.20.9
4/23
LA Galaxy0
44%27%
Seattle3
29%
LAGSEA
Adjusted goals0.03.2
Shot-based xG0.91.4
Non-shot xG1.21.7
See all
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefconferenceWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsmake playoffsfirst-round byesupporters’ shieldwin mls cup
FC Dallas15 pts
1.0
1.5
Western15.010.38.7+105588%48%17%9%
Toronto FC13 pts
1.2
1.5
Eastern14.010.79.3+115379%35%10%9%
NY Red Bulls16 pts
1.1
1.6
Eastern15.57.511.0+75483%40%12%8%
Seattle10 pts
1.2
1.5
Western13.610.89.7+125179%32%8%8%
Sporting KC15 pts
0.9
1.5
Western14.610.09.4+115485%41%12%8%
Portland17 pts
1.1
1.8
Western14.48.411.2+95280%30%7%6%
Orlando City18 pts
1.0
1.8
Eastern15.76.911.4+35481%38%12%5%
NYCFC13 pts
1.2
1.9
Eastern13.97.612.5+64967%21%5%5%
Atlanta11 pts
1.0
1.7
Eastern13.69.011.4+125070%24%6%5%
Houston13 pts
0.9
1.7
Western13.37.912.9+14864%17%3%4%
San Jose12 pts
0.6
1.5
Western11.99.912.2-24554%10%1%4%
New England10 pts
1.0
1.8
Eastern11.310.412.3+04443%9%1%4%
D.C. United8 pts
1.1
1.9
Eastern11.98.913.2-74543%9%1%3%
LA Galaxy7 pts
0.9
1.7
Western11.47.914.7-64237%6%<1%3%
Columbus13 pts
1.0
1.9
Eastern12.77.413.9-34548%10%2%3%
Vancouver10 pts
0.9
1.9
Western11.97.814.3-64343%7%<1%3%
Montreal7 pts
1.1
2.0
Eastern10.610.612.8-34235%5%<1%3%
Chicago11 pts
0.9
2.0
Eastern11.68.713.8-64338%7%1%2%
Colorado4 pts
0.6
1.6
Western10.08.415.5-93924%3%<1%2%
Real Salt Lake8 pts
0.8
1.8
Western10.48.615.0-94027%3%<1%2%
Philadelphia4 pts
0.9
1.9
Eastern8.610.714.7-113614%1%<1%1%
Minnesota8 pts
0.9
2.1
Western9.98.415.7-183820%2%<1%1%
Forecast from

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