Updated Dec. 2, 2020, at 11:58 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Major League Soccer

2020

USA

Updated Dec. 1, 2020, at 11:48 p.m.

Upcoming matches
Conference Semifinals
12/3
Sporting KC
64%
Minnesota
36%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
Conference Semifinals
12/1
Seattle1
73%
FC Dallas0
27%
SEADAL
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.81.0
Non-shot xG2.31.0
11/29
Columbus2
64%
Nashville0
36%
CLBNSH
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG2.40.8
Non-shot xG1.51.7
11/29
Orlando City1
58%
New England3
42%
ORLNWE
Adjusted goals1.12.6
Shot-based xG1.72.7
Non-shot xG1.20.5
See more
Team ratingend-of-season probabilities
teamconferencespioff.def.make conf. semismake conf. champmake mls cupwin mls cup
Seattle
Western
49.1
1.4
1.3
54%30%
Columbus
Eastern
39.2
1.3
1.6
55%25%
Sporting KC
Western
42.5
1.4
1.5
64%36%22%
New England
Eastern
45.6
1.4
1.4
45%17%
Minnesota
Western
40.1
1.4
1.7
36%11%5%
Orlando City
Eastern
40.6
1.3
1.6
FC Dallas
Western
39.5
1.3
1.6
Nashville
Eastern
36.9
1.0
1.3
Philadelphia
Eastern
50.9
1.6
1.4
Toronto FC
Eastern
39.7
1.3
1.6
Portland
Western
42.1
1.5
1.7
NYCFC
Eastern
50.7
1.7
1.5
LAFC
Western
51.0
1.8
1.6
NY Red Bulls
Eastern
38.8
1.3
1.6
San Jose
Western
35.7
1.3
1.8
Colorado
Western
39.9
1.4
1.7
Montreal
Eastern
30.2
1.1
1.9
Inter Miami
Eastern
40.5
1.3
1.5
Vancouver
Western
23.1
0.8
1.9
Chicago
Eastern
41.2
1.5
1.7
Atlanta
Eastern
37.4
1.1
1.5
LA Galaxy
Western
34.3
1.3
1.8
Real Salt Lake
Western
33.6
1.0
1.5
D.C. United
Eastern
27.1
1.0
1.9
Houston
Western
36.3
1.3
1.7
FC Cincinnati
Eastern
23.7
0.7
1.7
Forecast from
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