Major League Soccer Predictions

Major League Soccer

Completed matches

After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...

Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.

These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »

MLS Cup

12/12	Columbus3	50%
12/12	Seattle0	50%

Forecast from

Season

12/7	Seattle3	71%
12/7	Minnesota2	29%

12/6	Columbus1	54%
12/6	New England0	46%

12/3	Sporting KC0	64%
12/3	Minnesota3	36%

12/1	Seattle1	73%
12/1	FC Dallas0	27%

11/29	Columbus2	64%
11/29	Nashville0	36%

11/29	Orlando City1	58%
11/29	New England3	42%

11/24	Seattle3	61%
11/24	LAFC1	39%

11/24	Philadelphia0	71%
11/24	New England2	29%