Updated May 5, 2021, at 9:14 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Major League Soccer

2021

USA

Updated May 3, 2021, at 12:04 a.m.

Upcoming matches
May 4-10
5/7
Real Salt Lake
48%
25%
San Jose
27%
5/8
NY Red Bulls
49%
24%
Toronto FC
28%
5/8
Chicago
39%
23%
Philadelphia
38%
5/8
Columbus
60%
23%
D.C. United
17%
5/8
Nashville
40%
28%
New England
32%
5/8
Vancouver
38%
25%
Montreal
37%
5/8
FC Dallas
53%
23%
Houston
24%
5/8
Orlando City
37%
24%
NYCFC
39%
5/8
LA Galaxy
32%
21%
LAFC
47%
5/8
Colorado
49%
23%
Minnesota
29%
5/9
Inter Miami
51%
26%
Atlanta
24%
5/9
Portland
39%
24%
Seattle
37%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
April 27 - May 3
5/2
Vancouver0
32%25%
Colorado1
43%
VANCLR
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.91.9
Non-shot xG1.41.1
5/2
Seattle3
64%20%
LA Galaxy0
16%
SEALAG
Adjusted goals2.60.0
Shot-based xG1.91.3
Non-shot xG2.21.1
5/2
Nashville0
44%27%
Inter Miami0
29%
NSHMIA
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.70.4
Non-shot xG0.80.7
5/1
San Jose4
57%22%
D.C. United1
21%
SANDCU
Adjusted goals3.81.1
Shot-based xG1.31.5
Non-shot xG0.61.3
5/1
Minnesota0
58%23%
Austin FC1
19%
MNUATX
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.91.9
Non-shot xG1.81.3
5/1
FC Dallas4
44%24%
Portland1
32%
DALPRT
Adjusted goals3.81.1
Shot-based xG2.30.6
Non-shot xG1.31.1
5/1
Orlando City3
67%21%
FC Cincinnati0
12%
ORLCIN
Adjusted goals2.90.0
Shot-based xG2.10.5
Non-shot xG2.61.2
5/1
Philadelphia0
48%23%
NYCFC2
29%
PHINYC
Adjusted goals0.01.9
Shot-based xG0.62.8
Non-shot xG0.64.0
5/1
New England2
53%25%
Atlanta1
22%
NWEATL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.41.3
Non-shot xG1.90.7
5/1
Houston1
34%22%
LAFC1
44%
HOULAFC
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.21.3
Non-shot xG0.92.4
5/1
Montreal0
36%24%
Columbus0
39%
MTLCLB
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.20.1
Non-shot xG3.00.3
5/1
Real Salt Lake3
41%27%
Sporting KC1
33%
RSLSKC
Adjusted goals3.01.1
Shot-based xG1.40.5
Non-shot xG1.00.8
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamconferencespioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionmake playoffsfirst-round byesupporters’ shieldwin mls cup
NYCFC6 pts
Eastern
53.6
1.8
1.4
+266191%35%20%16%
Seattle7 pts
Western
50.0
1.5
1.3
+256190%31%19%14%
LAFC5 pts
Western
50.9
1.7
1.5
+215987%25%15%12%
New England7 pts
Eastern
45.2
1.4
1.4
+105577%16%8%7%
Philadelphia1 pt
Eastern
46.8
1.5
1.4
+95168%9%4%6%
Orlando City5 pts
Eastern
41.8
1.3
1.5
+85165%8%4%4%
Inter Miami4 pts
Eastern
41.6
1.3
1.5
+65166%8%4%4%
Portland3 pts
Western
41.4
1.4
1.6
+14959%6%3%4%
Sporting KC4 pts
Western
40.4
1.3
1.6
+34960%6%3%4%
FC Dallas4 pts
Western
40.0
1.3
1.5
+34958%5%3%3%
Columbus2 pts
Eastern
38.9
1.2
1.5
+04648%4%2%3%
Real Salt Lake6 pts
Western
35.3
1.0
1.5
+14858%6%3%2%
Colorado4 pts
Western
38.3
1.3
1.7
-14753%5%2%2%
Atlanta4 pts
Eastern
37.8
1.1
1.5
+14751%4%2%2%
NY Red Bulls3 pts
Eastern
38.9
1.3
1.6
-14546%4%1%2%
Toronto FC1 pt
Eastern
38.1
1.3
1.7
-34545%4%1%2%
San Jose6 pts
Western
36.0
1.3
1.8
+04651%4%2%2%
Chicago1 pt
Eastern
39.1
1.4
1.8
-54442%3%<1%2%
Houston4 pts
Western
35.3
1.2
1.7
-24547%3%1%2%
Nashville3 pts
Eastern
36.8
1.0
1.4
-24441%3%<1%2%
LA Galaxy6 pts
Western
34.3
1.3
1.9
-74648%4%2%2%
Minnesota0 pts
Western
37.7
1.4
1.7
-74239%2%<1%2%
Austin FC6 pts
Western
30.7
0.9
1.6
-74338%2%<1%1%
Montreal5 pts
Eastern
31.4
1.2
1.9
-84233%2%<1%<1%
D.C. United3 pts
Eastern
28.3
1.0
1.8
-183619%<1%<1%<1%
Vancouver4 pts
Western
23.7
0.8
1.9
-223311%<1%<1%<1%
FC Cincinnati1 pt
Eastern
23.2
0.8
1.8
-29308%<1%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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