Updated 9:53 PM EDT | Mar 19, 2017

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for nine leagues, updated after each match.

MLS
Upcoming
3/25
New England
54%
25%
Minnesota
22%
3/25
NY Red Bulls
54%
25%
Real Salt Lake
21%
3/25
Columbus
46%
24%
Portland
30%
See all
Completed
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
3/19
Seattle3
49%26%
NY Red Bulls1
25%
SEANWY
Adjusted goals2.91.1
Shot-based xG2.20.4
Non-shot xG0.91.0
3/18
Portland4
52%25%
Houston2
22%
PRTHOU
Adjusted goals3.82.1
Shot-based xG3.22.0
Non-shot xG2.51.1
3/18
Real Salt Lake1
40%28%
LA Galaxy2
32%
RSLLAG
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.10.9
Non-shot xG0.70.9
3/18
Colorado2
54%27%
Minnesota2
20%
CLRMNU
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.31.5
Non-shot xG0.90.6
3/18
Sporting KC2
54%27%
San Jose1
19%
SKCSAN
Adjusted goals1.61.1
Shot-based xG0.90.7
Non-shot xG1.20.9
3/18
FC Dallas2
54%26%
New England1
20%
DALNWE
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG0.81.0
Non-shot xG1.30.5
3/18
Orlando City2
51%24%
Philadelphia1
25%
ORLPHI
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.61.1
Non-shot xG1.01.2
3/18
D.C. United0
52%23%
Columbus2
24%
DCUCLB
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG1.12.2
Non-shot xG2.10.7
3/18
Atlanta4
53%24%
Chicago0
23%
ATLCHI
Adjusted goals3.90.0
Shot-based xG1.10.3
Non-shot xG1.80.8
3/18
Vancouver0
30%26%
Toronto FC2
44%
VANTOR
Adjusted goals0.01.8
Shot-based xG0.30.9
Non-shot xG0.81.4
3/18
NYCFC1
51%23%
Montreal1
26%
NYCMTL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.41.0
Non-shot xG1.60.7
3/12
LA Galaxy0
53%25%
Portland1
22%
LAGPRT
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.72.3
Non-shot xG1.71.2
See all
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefconferenceWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsmake playoffsfirst-round byesupporters’ shieldwin mls cup
Toronto FC5 pts
1.3
1.5
Eastern14.610.09.5+115481%40%12%9%
Seattle4 pts
1.2
1.5
Western14.89.110.1+115481%39%12%9%
NY Red Bulls6 pts
1.3
1.6
Eastern15.58.010.6+95482%43%13%9%
FC Dallas7 pts
1.0
1.5
Western14.89.39.9+85480%39%14%8%
Portland9 pts
1.2
1.9
Western15.07.911.1+95379%35%10%6%
LA Galaxy3 pts
1.0
1.6
Western13.18.212.6+24860%18%4%6%
Sporting KC5 pts
0.9
1.6
Western12.610.311.1+24862%19%4%5%
NYCFC4 pts
1.3
2.0
Eastern12.68.812.6+34756%16%3%4%
Atlanta6 pts
1.0
1.8
Eastern13.38.012.7+74863%20%4%4%
Columbus4 pts
1.1
2.0
Eastern12.28.912.9-14651%15%3%4%
Colorado4 pts
0.6
1.5
Western11.89.512.6-24549%12%2%4%
Orlando City6 pts
1.1
2.0
Eastern13.28.112.6-14859%19%4%4%
Houston6 pts
0.8
1.7
Western12.98.212.9-14757%15%3%4%
D.C. United1 pt
1.1
1.9
Eastern11.58.913.6-64342%9%2%4%
New England0 pts
0.9
1.7
Eastern11.98.313.8-24446%12%2%3%
Montreal2 pts
1.1
1.9
Eastern11.69.812.6-14547%11%2%3%
San Jose6 pts
0.6
1.6
Western12.18.513.4-44548%11%2%3%
Philadelphia2 pts
1.0
2.0
Eastern10.79.913.3-54237%8%1%3%
Real Salt Lake1 pt
0.7
1.8
Western10.39.314.4-84030%5%<1%2%
Chicago4 pts
0.9
2.1
Eastern11.08.914.1-94235%7%<1%2%
Vancouver1 pt
0.8
1.8
Western10.09.214.9-93926%4%<1%2%
Minnesota1 pt
0.9
2.1
Western10.29.014.8-154027%4%<1%2%
Forecast from

commentsAdd comment