Updated Aug. 15, 2018 at 8:27 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 35 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Major League Soccer

2018 season

USA

Updated Aug. 15, 2018, at 12:40 a.m.

Upcoming matches
8/15
D.C. United
44%
24%
Portland
32%
8/15
LAFC
57%
22%
Real Salt Lake
22%
8/18
Seattle
55%
24%
LA Galaxy
21%
8/18
Philadelphia
38%
25%
NYCFC
37%
8/18
Vancouver
32%
24%
NY Red Bulls
44%
8/18
Montreal
57%
24%
Chicago
20%
8/18
FC Dallas
66%
19%
Minnesota
15%
8/18
Sporting KC
55%
24%
Portland
21%
8/18
Houston
54%
24%
Real Salt Lake
22%
8/18
San Jose
36%
24%
Toronto FC
41%
8/19
Atlanta
63%
22%
Columbus
14%
8/19
D.C. United
53%
23%
New England
24%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
8/14
LA Galaxy2
65%20%
Colorado2
15%
LAGCLR
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG0.90.4
Non-shot xG1.90.6
8/12
Seattle2
55%25%
FC Dallas1
20%
SEADAL
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG0.71.1
Non-shot xG1.10.9
8/12
D.C. United3
60%20%
Orlando City2
20%
DCUORL
Adjusted goals2.72.1
Shot-based xG2.10.7
Non-shot xG2.50.6
8/12
Toronto FC2
47%23%
NYCFC3
29%
TORNYC
Adjusted goals2.12.5
Shot-based xG0.72.1
Non-shot xG1.11.6
8/11
Portland1
65%20%
Vancouver2
15%
PRTVAN
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG3.00.8
Non-shot xG3.00.9
8/11
LAFC0
44%24%
Sporting KC2
32%
LOSSKC
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG1.81.8
Non-shot xG1.51.1
8/11
LA Galaxy2
67%18%
Minnesota2
15%
LAGMNU
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.31.2
Non-shot xG1.51.3
8/11
Real Salt Lake1
53%24%
Montreal1
23%
RSLMTL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.50.7
Non-shot xG0.91.1
8/11
Colorado2
46%26%
San Jose1
28%
CLRSAN
Adjusted goals1.91.1
Shot-based xG1.61.5
Non-shot xG1.21.1
8/11
Chicago0
30%24%
NY Red Bulls1
46%
CHINWY
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.41.1
Non-shot xG1.00.9
8/11
New England2
49%24%
Philadelphia3
27%
NWEPHI
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG2.12.6
Non-shot xG2.31.0
8/11
Columbus1
55%25%
Houston0
20%
CLBHOU
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.90.4
Non-shot xG1.30.6
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamconferencespioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.make playoffsfirst-round byesupporters’ shieldwin mls cup
Atlanta48 pts
Eastern
53.9
1.7
1.3
19.38.16.5+2966>99%70%33%21%
NY Red Bulls47 pts
Eastern
52.0
1.5
1.3
20.54.59.0+2866>99%68%36%18%
NYCFC47 pts
Eastern
52.1
1.6
1.3
19.37.27.5+2465>99%60%25%18%
Sporting KC39 pts
Western
48.5
1.4
1.3
16.68.58.9+195898%60%2%11%
Portland37 pts
Western
45.8
1.4
1.4
15.810.18.1+115796%49%2%8%
FC Dallas42 pts
Western
42.3
1.4
1.5
16.78.68.7+95999%59%2%6%
Columbus39 pts
Eastern
42.5
1.2
1.3
14.98.410.6+35398%1%<1%4%
LAFC36 pts
Western
40.5
1.4
1.7
14.88.410.7+95388%18%<1%3%
Seattle32 pts
Western
41.7
1.1
1.3
13.87.812.4+34967%6%<1%3%
LA Galaxy37 pts
Western
40.2
1.4
1.7
13.49.011.6+64966%4%<1%2%
Toronto FC23 pts
Eastern
45.5
1.6
1.6
11.07.415.6-24030%<1%<1%1%
Philadelphia30 pts
Eastern
39.2
1.3
1.6
13.15.615.3-74565%<1%<1%1%
Real Salt Lake35 pts
Western
34.6
1.2
1.7
13.17.213.7-114641%2%<1%<1%
D.C. United21 pts
Eastern
37.2
1.3
1.7
10.79.214.1-44136%<1%<1%<1%
Houston27 pts
Western
38.6
1.2
1.5
10.98.714.4+44113%<1%<1%<1%
Vancouver33 pts
Western
33.1
1.2
1.9
12.28.313.5-124529%<1%<1%<1%
New England29 pts
Eastern
35.6
1.3
1.7
10.410.413.2-54234%<1%<1%<1%
Montreal30 pts
Eastern
34.1
1.1
1.6
11.95.216.9-124132%<1%<1%<1%
Minnesota29 pts
Western
29.6
1.2
2.0
11.54.118.5-17383%<1%<1%<1%
Orlando City23 pts
Eastern
30.6
1.3
2.0
9.74.120.2-27332%<1%<1%<1%
Colorado24 pts
Western
29.9
1.0
1.7
8.58.417.1-1534<1%<1%<1%<1%
Chicago23 pts
Eastern
31.5
1.1
1.8
8.66.918.5-19331%<1%<1%<1%
San Jose16 pts
Western
32.1
1.1
1.8
6.59.617.9-1329<1%<1%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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