Updated Oct. 14, 2018 at 7:54 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Major League Soccer

2018 season

USA

Updated Oct. 13, 2018, at 9:28 p.m.

Upcoming matches
10/17
D.C. United
48%
23%
Toronto FC
29%
10/17
Orlando City
32%
25%
Seattle
42%
10/17
Vancouver
36%
24%
Sporting KC
40%
10/18
Real Salt Lake
58%
23%
New England
20%
10/21
D.C. United
42%
25%
NYCFC
33%
10/21
Montreal
50%
24%
Toronto FC
26%
10/21
Philadelphia
37%
26%
NY Red Bulls
37%
10/21
Orlando City
32%
26%
Columbus
42%
10/21
Atlanta
81%
13%
Chicago
6%
10/21
Houston
41%
26%
Seattle
33%
10/21
FC Dallas
44%
27%
Sporting KC
29%
10/21
San Jose
48%
25%
Colorado
28%
10/21
Portland
51%
24%
Real Salt Lake
25%
10/21
Minnesota
39%
22%
LA Galaxy
39%
10/21
LAFC
60%
21%
Vancouver
20%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
10/13
New England2
50%24%
Orlando City0
27%
NWEORL
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.80.4
Non-shot xG1.40.6
10/13
D.C. United1
49%24%
FC Dallas0
27%
DCUDAL
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.00.5
Non-shot xG0.81.0
10/13
Minnesota0
51%24%
Colorado2
26%
MNUCLR
Adjusted goals0.01.6
Shot-based xG1.21.1
Non-shot xG0.91.4
10/12
LAFC4
59%22%
Houston2
19%
LOSHOU
Adjusted goals4.02.1
Shot-based xG2.61.0
Non-shot xG1.61.1
10/8
Seattle4
59%24%
Houston1
17%
SEAHOU
Adjusted goals4.11.1
Shot-based xG2.11.3
Non-shot xG2.21.0
10/7
D.C. United2
61%21%
Chicago1
18%
DCUCHI
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG3.21.0
Non-shot xG1.30.8
10/6
San Jose1
28%23%
NY Red Bulls3
48%
SANNWY
Adjusted goals1.13.2
Shot-based xG1.42.2
Non-shot xG1.32.0
10/6
Real Salt Lake1
54%23%
Portland4
22%
RSLPRT
Adjusted goals1.13.7
Shot-based xG1.02.2
Non-shot xG0.81.2
10/6
Colorado0
32%25%
LAFC3
43%
CLRLOS
Adjusted goals0.03.2
Shot-based xG0.92.4
Non-shot xG1.31.4
10/6
Sporting KC1
60%21%
LA Galaxy1
19%
SKCLAG
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.91.3
Non-shot xG2.60.5
10/6
FC Dallas2
69%19%
Orlando City0
12%
DALORL
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.10.9
Non-shot xG1.31.0
10/6
Philadelphia5
60%22%
Minnesota1
18%
PHIMNU
Adjusted goals5.01.1
Shot-based xG2.52.2
Non-shot xG2.01.7
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamconferencespioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.make playoffsfirst-round byesupporters’ shieldwin mls cup
Atlanta66 pts
Eastern
53.8
1.7
1.3
21.16.46.5+307065%25%
NY Red Bulls65 pts
Eastern
50.8
1.5
1.3
21.25.47.4+296935%20%
Sporting KC53 pts
Western
49.2
1.5
1.3
16.38.79.0+195846%13%
NYCFC53 pts
Eastern
49.0
1.5
1.3
15.98.59.6+15569%
FC Dallas57 pts
Western
42.4
1.3
1.4
16.89.57.6+136081%8%
LAFC56 pts
Western
43.2
1.5
1.6
16.88.48.8+175962%7%
Seattle50 pts
Western
44.4
1.3
1.4
16.45.711.9+1355>99%10%6%
Columbus48 pts
Eastern
44.9
1.2
1.3
14.19.510.5-152>99%4%
Portland51 pts
Western
41.9
1.4
1.5
14.89.59.7+45498%<1%3%
Philadelphia50 pts
Eastern
41.2
1.3
1.5
15.55.513.0+1523%
D.C. United44 pts
Eastern
38.1
1.3
1.7
13.28.712.1+74877%<1%
Real Salt Lake46 pts
Western
39.1
1.3
1.6
13.87.512.7-34957%<1%
LA Galaxy45 pts
Western
39.6
1.5
1.8
12.99.411.7+24832%<1%
Montreal43 pts
Eastern
39.0
1.2
1.5
13.74.515.8-74624%<1%
Vancouver43 pts
Western
33.7
1.3
1.9
13.07.713.3-124713%<1%
New England38 pts
Eastern
37.3
1.2
1.6
9.711.512.8-441<1%<1%
Minnesota36 pts
Western
31.3
1.2
1.9
11.63.419.0-2038
Houston35 pts
Western
35.9
1.2
1.7
9.78.515.9-137
Toronto FC33 pts
Eastern
43.9
1.5
1.7
10.06.717.3-637
Chicago31 pts
Eastern
31.9
1.1
1.8
8.57.418.1-1433
Colorado27 pts
Western
24.0
0.8
1.8
7.56.520.0-2929
Orlando City25 pts
Eastern
27.8
1.1
1.9
7.74.721.6-3228
San Jose20 pts
Western
29.5
1.2
2.0
4.78.420.9-2123
Forecast from
Season

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