Get more FiveThirtyEight
- Terms of Use
- Privacy Policy
- Your California Privacy Rights
- Children's Online Privacy Policy
- Interest-Based Ads
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
Updated Feb. 26, 2020, at 4:59 PM
| 10/27 |  North Carolina4 | 74% |
 Chicago0 | 26% |
| 10/20 | Chicago1 | 65% |
 Portland0 | 35% |
| 10/20 | North Carolina4 | 82% |
 Reign1 | 18% |
| 10/12 | Portland0 | 53% | 25% |
 Washington0 | 22% |
| 10/12 |  Utah2 | 43% | 32% |
 Houston1 | 25% |
| 10/12 |  Orlando2 | 27% | 26% |
Reign2 | 47% |
| 10/12 | North Carolina3 | 89% | 9% |
 Sky Blue2 | 2% |
| 10/5 | Orlando0 | 35% | 26% |
Washington3 | 39% |
| 9/29 | Reign2 | 37% | 28% |
Portland0 | 34% |
| 9/29 | Sky Blue1 | 43% | 26% |
Orlando1 | 31% |
| 9/28 | Chicago2 | 55% | 28% |
Utah1 | 18% |
| 9/28 | Washington2 | 20% | 24% |
North Carolina1 | 57% |
| 9/25 | Reign2 | 43% | 34% |
Utah1 | 22% |
| 9/25 | Houston0 | 39% | 28% |
Washington0 | 32% |
| 9/21 | Portland1 | 64% | 21% |
Houston0 | 15% |
| 9/21 | Reign0 | 62% | 26% |
Sky Blue1 | 13% |
| 9/21 | Utah0 | 28% | 29% |
North Carolina3 | 42% |
| 9/21 | Chicago3 | 57% | 25% |
Washington1 | 18% |
| 9/17 | North Carolina1 | 81% | 13% |
Houston0 | 5% |
| 9/15 | Sky Blue0 | 28% | 27% |
Chicago3 | 45% |
| 9/14 | Washington2 | 40% | 32% |
Reign2 | 29% |
| 9/14 | North Carolina6 | 84% | 12% |
Orlando1 | 5% |
| 9/13 | Houston2 | 29% | 32% |
Utah1 | 39% |
| 9/11 | Portland0 | 39% | 25% |
North Carolina6 | 36% |
| 9/11 | Orlando0 | 27% | 23% |
Chicago1 | 50% |
| 9/8 | Chicago3 | 61% | 23% |
Houston0 | 16% |
| 9/7 | Reign3 | 60% | 24% |
Orlando1 | 16% |
| 9/7 | Sky Blue1 | 19% | 24% |
North Carolina2 | 57% |
| 9/6 | Utah1 | 38% | 29% |
Portland0 | 33% |
| 8/25 | Portland3 | 51% | 24% |
Chicago0 | 26% |
| 8/24 | Houston1 | 51% | 27% |
Sky Blue2 | 22% |
| 8/24 | Washington2 | 56% | 24% |
Orlando1 | 20% |
| 8/24 | North Carolina1 | 61% | 24% |
Reign0 | 14% |
| 8/21 | Washington0 | 39% | 32% |
Utah0 | 29% |
| 8/21 | Chicago1 | 69% | 19% |
Orlando2 | 13% |
| 8/18 | Sky Blue1 | 30% | 31% |
Reign1 | 39% |
| 8/17 | Portland3 | 56% | 24% |
Washington1 | 20% |
| 8/17 | Orlando0 | 32% | 28% |
Utah2 | 40% |
| 8/14 | Sky Blue2 | 24% | 26% |
Chicago1 | 50% |
| 8/11 | Reign1 | 49% | 34% |
Utah3 | 17% |
| 8/11 | Portland2 | 35% | 25% |
North Carolina1 | 40% |
| 8/10 | Orlando0 | 44% | 25% |
Houston1 | 32% |
| 8/10 | Washington0 | 39% | 27% |
Chicago1 | 34% |
| 8/7 | Utah3 | 51% | 32% |
Sky Blue0 | 18% |
| 8/7 | Reign1 | 40% | 28% |
Portland0 | 31% |
| 8/3 | Portland1 | 69% | 20% |
Sky Blue1 | 11% |
| 8/3 | Chicago2 | 56% | 27% |
Utah0 | 17% |
| 8/3 | North Carolina1 | 65% | 21% |
Washington0 | 14% |
| 8/2 | Houston0 | 35% | 30% |
Reign1 | 35% |
| 7/28 | Houston1 | 51% | 26% |
Sky Blue0 | 23% |
| 7/28 | Reign0 | 48% | 29% |
Chicago4 | 23% |
| 7/27 | Utah1 | 26% | 29% |
North Carolina2 | 45% |
| 7/24 | Portland5 | 58% | 22% |
Houston0 | 20% |
| 7/24 | Sky Blue0 | 34% | 28% |
Washington1 | 38% |
| 7/21 | Chicago2 | 30% | 25% |
North Carolina1 | 46% |
| 7/20 | Washington1 | 53% | 25% |
Houston2 | 22% |
| 7/20 | Orlando1 | 46% | 25% |
Sky Blue0 | 30% |
| 7/19 | Utah2 | 36% | 31% |
Portland2 | 34% |
| 7/14 | Portland4 | 68% | 19% |
Orlando3 | 13% |
| 7/13 | Houston0 | 41% | 25% |
Chicago1 | 34% |
| 7/13 | North Carolina2 | 56% | 26% |
Reign0 | 18% |
| 7/12 | Sky Blue1 | 34% | 32% |
Utah0 | 34% |
| 7/6 | Chicago1 | 65% | 21% |
Sky Blue2 | 14% |
| 7/6 | Orlando4 | 28% | 27% |
Washington3 | 45% |
| 7/5 | Portland0 | 49% | 28% |
Reign1 | 23% |
| 7/5 | North Carolina5 | 66% | 21% |
Houston2 | 13% |
| 6/30 | Orlando2 | 29% | 26% |
Chicago3 | 45% |
| 6/29 | Houston1 | 34% | 26% |
Portland2 | 39% |
| 6/29 | Washington1 | 34% | 28% |
North Carolina2 | 38% |
| 6/28 | Utah0 | 43% | 35% |
Reign2 | 22% |
| 6/23 | Chicago0 | 50% | 27% |
Reign1 | 23% |
| 6/22 | Washington0 | 53% | 25% |
Houston0 | 22% |
| 6/22 | Sky Blue1 | 48% | 27% |
Orlando2 | 25% |
| 6/21 | Portland0 | 54% | 27% |
Utah0 | 19% |
| 6/15 | Utah1 | 58% | 26% |
Sky Blue0 | 15% |
| 6/15 | Reign1 | 42% | 30% |
Washington1 | 28% |
| 6/15 | Houston2 | 63% | 23% |
Orlando2 | 14% |
| 6/15 | North Carolina1 | 54% | 24% |
Portland1 | 23% |
| 6/2 | Portland3 | 46% | 24% |
Chicago0 | 29% |
| 6/2 | Reign1 | 49% | 28% |
Houston1 | 24% |
| 6/1 | Orlando0 | 19% | 23% |
North Carolina3 | 58% |
| 6/1 | Washington2 | 44% | 30% |
Utah0 | 25% |
| 5/27 | Reign2 | 30% | 29% |
North Carolina1 | 41% |
| 5/26 | Chicago0 | 57% | 24% |
Washington2 | 20% |
| 5/25 | Utah2 | 60% | 26% |
Orlando0 | 14% |
| 5/25 | Sky Blue0 | 29% | 24% |
Portland1 | 48% |
| 5/19 | Houston1 | 36% | 25% |
Chicago2 | 38% |
| 5/19 | North Carolina1 | 62% | 25% |
Utah1 | 14% |
| 5/18 | Washington3 | 34% | 26% |
Portland1 | 40% |
| 5/18 | Reign2 | 55% | 26% |
Sky Blue1 | 18% |
| 5/12 | Chicago3 | 33% | 26% |
North Carolina1 | 41% |
| 5/11 | Orlando1 | 28% | 25% |
Portland3 | 48% |
| 5/11 | Utah1 | 50% | 29% |
Houston2 | 22% |
| 5/11 | Sky Blue2 | 41% | 29% |
Washington3 | 31% |
| 5/5 | Houston1 | 54% | 24% |
Orlando0 | 22% |
| 5/4 | North Carolina0 | 80% | 14% |
Sky Blue0 | 6% |
| 5/4 | Washington0 | 42% | 29% |
Reign0 | 29% |
| 5/3 | Utah1 | 39% | 28% |
Chicago0 | 32% |
| 4/28 | Houston1 | 28% | 25% |
North Carolina4 | 47% |
| 4/28 | Sky Blue2 | 28% | 24% |
Portland2 | 47% |
| 4/28 | Chicago3 | 48% | 27% |
Reign0 | 25% |
| 4/27 | Orlando0 | 36% | 29% |
Utah1 | 35% |
| 4/21 | Reign1 | 59% | 24% |
Orlando1 | 16% |
| 4/20 | Utah1 | 47% | 28% |
Washington0 | 24% |
| 4/20 | Sky Blue0 | 39% | 25% |
Houston1 | 35% |
| 4/20 | Chicago4 | 43% | 27% |
Portland4 | 30% |
| 4/17 | North Carolina5 | 67% | 21% |
Orlando0 | 12% |
| 4/14 | Houston1 | 40% | 27% |
Reign1 | 32% |
| 4/14 | Orlando0 | 37% | 26% |
Portland2 | 37% |
| 4/13 | North Carolina1 | 58% | 24% |
Chicago1 | 18% |
| 4/13 | Washington2 | 48% | 25% |
Sky Blue0 | 27% |
| Team rating | avg. simulated season | end-of-season probabilities | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| team | spi | off. | def. | goal diff. | proj. pts.pts. | Every position | make playoffs | make final | win final | |||||||
North Carolina49 pts | 77.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | +31 | 49 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ||||||||
Chicago44 pts | 61.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | +13 | 44 | ✓ | ✓ | — | ||||||||
Portland40 pts | 58.5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | +9 | 40 | ✓ | — | — | ||||||||
Reign38 pts | 54.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | +0 | 38 | ✓ | — | — | ||||||||
Washington34 pts | 55.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | +5 | 34 | — | — | — | ||||||||
Utah34 pts | 52.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | +0 | 34 | — | — | — | ||||||||
Houston26 pts | 44.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | -15 | 26 | — | — | — | ||||||||
Sky Blue20 pts | 43.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | -14 | 20 | — | — | — | ||||||||
Orlando16 pts | 38.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 | -29 | 16 | — | — | — | ||||||||
The top two teams from each group qualify for the knockout phase. The third-place team from each group qualifies for the UEFA Europa League knockout phase. The third-place finisher from each group in the UEFA Champions League — eight teams total — will join the UEFA Europa League in the round of 32.The top seven teams from each conference — 14 teams total — make the MLS playoffs. The top team from each conference receives a first-round bye.The top ten teams from each conference — 20 teams total — make the USL playoffs.The top eight teams at the end of the regular season make the Liga MX playoffs.The top four teams at the end of the regular season make the NWSL playoffs.The top six teams make the A-League playoffs, with two teams receiving a first-round bye.Three teams are promoted, and four teams are relegated. Depending on the league standings, playoffs for the final promotion and relegation spots may be necessary.Four teams — based on overall performance during the last four seasons — are relegated.The bottom team is automatically relegated, and the second-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom two teams are automatically relegated, and the third-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom two teams are automatically relegated, and the third-to-last team will enter a playoff against teams from the lower division to determine if they are relegated.Three teams are relegated through a playoff.This forecast assumes Manchester City will not successfully appeal its Champions League ban.
Design and development by Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Julia Wolfe. Statistical models by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
Comments