Get more FiveThirtyEight
- Terms of Use
- Privacy Policy
- Your California Privacy Rights
- Children's Online Privacy Policy
- Interest-Based Ads
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
Updated Feb. 24, 2021, at 5:00 PM
2/27 |  Celtic | 69% | 20% |
 Aberdeen | 11% |
2/27 |  Hibernian | 59% | 24% |
 Motherwell | 17% |
2/27 |  Kilmarnock | 42% | 28% |
 Dundee Utd | 30% |
2/27 |  St Mirren | 49% | 27% |
 Ross County | 24% |
3/3 |  Hamilton Accies | 37% | 26% |
 St Johnstone | 37% |
3/3 |  Livingston | 20% | 22% |
 Rangers | 58% |
3/6 | Aberdeen | 54% | 26% |
Hamilton Accies | 20% |
3/6 | Motherwell | 29% | 26% |
Livingston | 45% |
3/6 | Rangers | 84% | 13% |
St Mirren | 3% |
3/6 | St Johnstone | 30% | 27% |
Hibernian | 43% |
3/6 | Ross County | 35% | 28% |
Kilmarnock | 37% |
3/7 | Dundee Utd | 11% | 17% |
Celtic | 71% |
3/13 | Livingston | 52% | 24% |
Hamilton Accies | 25% |
3/13 | Ross County | 21% | 23% |
Hibernian | 56% |
3/20 | Dundee Utd | 31% | 29% |
Aberdeen | 40% |
3/20 | Kilmarnock | 39% | 28% |
Motherwell | 32% |
3/20 | St Johnstone | 57% | 24% |
Ross County | 19% |
3/20 | Hamilton Accies | 33% | 28% |
St Mirren | 39% |
3/20 | Livingston | 33% | 27% |
Hibernian | 40% |
3/21 | Celtic | 31% | 26% |
Rangers | 44% |
| 2/24 | St Mirren0 | 45% | 27% |
Motherwell0 | 27% |
| 2/21 | Ross County1 | 7% | 13% |
Celtic0 | 80% |
| 2/21 | Rangers4 | 88% | 10% |
Dundee Utd1 | 2% |
| 2/20 | St Mirren1 | 36% | 28% |
Livingston1 | 36% |
| 2/20 | Motherwell0 | 39% | 27% |
St Johnstone3 | 34% |
| 2/20 | Hibernian2 | 58% | 23% |
Hamilton Accies0 | 19% |
| 2/20 | Aberdeen1 | 47% | 29% |
Kilmarnock0 | 24% |
| 2/17 | St Mirren1 | 45% | 27% |
Hamilton Accies1 | 28% |
| 2/17 | Celtic1 | 71% | 18% |
Aberdeen0 | 10% |
| 2/14 | St Johnstone1 | 12% | 18% |
Celtic2 | 70% |
| 2/13 | Rangers1 | 88% | 10% |
Kilmarnock0 | 2% |
| 2/13 | Motherwell1 | 48% | 26% |
Hamilton Accies4 | 27% |
| 2/13 | Dundee Utd3 | 26% | 26% |
Livingston0 | 48% |
| 2/13 | Aberdeen0 | 41% | 29% |
St Mirren0 | 30% |
| 2/10 | St Mirren0 | 15% | 21% |
Celtic4 | 64% |
| 2/10 | Kilmarnock0 | 37% | 27% |
Motherwell1 | 35% |
| 2/7 | Hamilton Accies1 | 5% | 12% |
Rangers1 | 82% |
| 2/6 | Ross County0 | 39% | 26% |
Dundee Utd2 | 34% |
| 2/6 | Livingston1 | 54% | 25% |
St Johnstone2 | 21% |
| 2/6 | St Mirren2 | 45% | 28% |
Kilmarnock0 | 27% |
| 2/6 | Hibernian2 | 45% | 27% |
Aberdeen0 | 28% |
| 2/6 | Celtic2 | 82% | 13% |
Motherwell1 | 5% |
| 2/3 | Rangers1 | 88% | 10% |
St Johnstone0 | 2% |
| 2/3 | Hamilton Accies1 | 45% | 25% |
Ross County2 | 30% |
| 2/3 | Motherwell2 | 48% | 27% |
Dundee Utd1 | 25% |
| 2/2 | Kilmarnock0 | 13% | 19% |
Celtic4 | 69% |
| 2/2 | St Mirren1 | 32% | 28% |
Hibernian2 | 39% |
| 2/2 | Aberdeen0 | 42% | 27% |
Livingston2 | 31% |
| 1/30 | Livingston0 | 41% | 26% |
Aberdeen0 | 33% |
| 1/30 | Kilmarnock2 | 42% | 29% |
St Johnstone3 | 29% |
| 1/30 | Dundee Utd0 | 26% | 26% |
Hibernian2 | 47% |
| 1/30 | Celtic1 | 79% | 15% |
St Mirren2 | 6% |
| 1/27 | Livingston2 | 48% | 26% |
Kilmarnock0 | 26% |
| 1/27 | Hibernian0 | 11% | 19% |
Rangers1 | 70% |
| 1/27 | Celtic2 | 86% | 10% |
Hamilton Accies0 | 4% |
| 1/27 | Ross County1 | 32% | 26% |
Motherwell2 | 42% |
| 1/27 | St Johnstone0 | 30% | 27% |
Aberdeen0 | 44% |
| 1/27 | Dundee Utd1 | 40% | 32% |
St Mirren5 | 29% |
| 1/23 | Rangers5 | 91% | 7% |
Ross County0 | 2% |
| 1/23 | Aberdeen2 | 50% | 25% |
Motherwell0 | 25% |
| 1/20 | Livingston2 | 16% | 20% |
Celtic2 | 64% |
| 1/17 | Motherwell1 | 7% | 15% |
Rangers1 | 78% |
| 1/16 | Ross County4 | 19% | 24% |
Aberdeen1 | 57% |
| 1/16 | Hamilton Accies0 | 36% | 27% |
Dundee Utd0 | 37% |
| 1/16 | St Johnstone1 | 40% | 30% |
St Mirren0 | 30% |
| 1/16 | Hibernian2 | 47% | 27% |
Kilmarnock0 | 26% |
| 1/16 | Celtic0 | 77% | 15% |
Livingston0 | 8% |
| 1/12 | Dundee Utd2 | 40% | 30% |
St Johnstone2 | 30% |
| 1/11 | Celtic1 | 77% | 15% |
Hibernian1 | 8% |
| 1/10 | Livingston3 | 60% | 23% |
Ross County1 | 18% |
| 1/10 | Aberdeen1 | 12% | 21% |
Rangers2 | 67% |
| 1/9 | St Mirren1 | 39% | 30% |
Motherwell1 | 32% |
| 1/9 | Kilmarnock2 | 49% | 25% |
Hamilton Accies0 | 26% |
| 1/2 | Ross County1 | 31% | 28% |
St Johnstone1 | 41% |
| 1/2 | Hamilton Accies3 | 32% | 26% |
Motherwell0 | 42% |
| 1/2 | Kilmarnock1 | 44% | 30% |
St Mirren1 | 27% |
| 1/2 | Hibernian0 | 49% | 25% |
Livingston3 | 26% |
| 1/2 | Aberdeen0 | 56% | 25% |
Dundee Utd0 | 18% |
| 1/2 | Rangers1 | 52% | 24% |
Celtic0 | 25% |
| 12/30 | Motherwell0 | 42% | 28% |
Kilmarnock2 | 30% |
| 12/30 | Hibernian0 | 72% | 19% |
Ross County2 | 10% |
| 12/30 | St Johnstone0 | 48% | 25% |
Hamilton Accies0 | 28% |
| 12/30 | St Mirren0 | 5% | 15% |
Rangers2 | 80% |
| 12/30 | Celtic3 | 85% | 11% |
Dundee Utd0 | 4% |
| 12/26 | Ross County0 | 31% | 29% |
St Mirren2 | 40% |
| 12/26 | Hamilton Accies0 | 7% | 11% |
Celtic3 | 81% |
| 12/26 | Kilmarnock1 | 40% | 27% |
Livingston2 | 33% |
| 12/26 | Dundee Utd1 | 37% | 28% |
Motherwell1 | 35% |
| 12/26 | Aberdeen2 | 57% | 24% |
St Johnstone1 | 18% |
| 12/26 | Rangers1 | 81% | 14% |
Hibernian0 | 5% |
| 12/23 | Dundee Utd2 | 36% | 29% |
Kilmarnock0 | 35% |
| 12/23 | Motherwell0 | 31% | 26% |
Aberdeen0 | 44% |
| 12/23 | Hamilton Accies0 | 34% | 24% |
Livingston2 | 43% |
| 12/23 | St Johnstone0 | 5% | 13% |
Rangers3 | 82% |
| 12/23 | Hibernian1 | 57% | 24% |
St Mirren0 | 18% |
| 12/23 | Celtic2 | 91% | 7% |
Ross County0 | 2% |
| 12/20 | Kilmarnock0 | 33% | 27% |
Aberdeen2 | 40% |
| 12/19 | Ross County0 | 38% | 25% |
Hamilton Accies2 | 38% |
| 12/19 | St Mirren3 | 38% | 31% |
St Johnstone2 | 31% |
| 12/19 | Rangers3 | 89% | 9% |
Motherwell1 | 2% |
| 12/19 | Hibernian1 | 59% | 23% |
Dundee Utd1 | 18% |
| 12/13 | Celtic2 | 80% | 14% |
Kilmarnock0 | 7% |
| 12/13 | Dundee Utd1 | 4% | 13% |
Rangers2 | 83% |
| 12/12 | Hamilton Accies0 | 25% | 22% |
Hibernian4 | 53% |
| 12/12 | St Johnstone1 | 39% | 28% |
Livingston2 | 33% |
| 12/12 | Motherwell0 | 46% | 28% |
St Mirren1 | 25% |
| 12/12 | Aberdeen2 | 64% | 21% |
Ross County0 | 15% |
| 12/6 | Celtic1 | 85% | 11% |
St Johnstone1 | 4% |
| 12/6 | Ross County0 | 3% | 10% |
Rangers4 | 87% |
| 12/5 | Livingston2 | 43% | 27% |
Dundee Utd0 | 30% |
| 12/5 | Hamilton Accies1 | 30% | 24% |
Kilmarnock0 | 46% |
| 12/5 | St Mirren1 | 27% | 28% |
Aberdeen1 | 46% |
| 12/5 | Motherwell0 | 38% | 26% |
Hibernian3 | 37% |
| 11/25 | Hamilton Accies1 | 24% | 21% |
Aberdeen1 | 55% |
| 11/24 | Hibernian2 | 53% | 26% |
St Johnstone2 | 21% |
| 11/22 | Rangers4 | 75% | 17% |
Aberdeen0 | 8% |
| 11/21 | Livingston0 | 46% | 27% |
St Mirren1 | 27% |
| 11/21 | St Johnstone1 | 34% | 28% |
Motherwell1 | 38% |
| 11/21 | Kilmarnock3 | 55% | 25% |
Ross County1 | 20% |
| 11/21 | Hibernian2 | 13% | 17% |
Celtic2 | 70% |
| 11/21 | Dundee Utd2 | 46% | 25% |
Hamilton Accies1 | 29% |
| 11/8 | Rangers8 | 92% | 6% |
Hamilton Accies0 | 1% |
| 11/8 | Motherwell1 | 12% | 17% |
Celtic4 | 71% |
| 11/6 | Ross County1 | 32% | 26% |
Livingston1 | 43% |
| 11/6 | St Johnstone1 | 33% | 28% |
Kilmarnock0 | 38% |
| 11/6 | St Mirren0 | 39% | 29% |
Dundee Utd0 | 32% |
| 11/6 | Aberdeen2 | 43% | 26% |
Hibernian0 | 31% |
| 11/1 | Kilmarnock0 | 8% | 18% |
Rangers1 | 74% |
| 10/31 | Livingston0 | 39% | 26% |
Motherwell2 | 36% |
| 10/31 | Dundee Utd2 | 47% | 27% |
Ross County1 | 26% |
| 10/25 | Rangers2 | 87% | 10% |
Livingston0 | 3% |
| 10/25 | Aberdeen3 | 14% | 19% |
Celtic3 | 66% |
| 10/24 | St Johnstone0 | 40% | 28% |
Dundee Utd0 | 32% |
| 10/24 | Kilmarnock0 | 39% | 26% |
Hibernian1 | 36% |
| 10/24 | Motherwell4 | 51% | 26% |
Ross County0 | 23% |
| 10/20 | Aberdeen4 | 57% | 23% |
Hamilton Accies2 | 21% |
| 10/17 | Ross County0 | 26% | 24% |
Hibernian0 | 50% |
| 10/17 | Livingston1 | 40% | 25% |
Kilmarnock3 | 34% |
| 10/17 | Hamilton Accies3 | 41% | 28% |
St Johnstone5 | 30% |
| 10/17 | Dundee Utd0 | 29% | 26% |
Aberdeen0 | 45% |
| 10/17 | Celtic0 | 48% | 24% |
Rangers2 | 28% |
| 10/4 | Rangers2 | 89% | 9% |
Ross County0 | 2% |
| 10/4 | St Johnstone0 | 5% | 13% |
Celtic2 | 82% |
| 10/2 | Hibernian3 | 56% | 23% |
Hamilton Accies2 | 20% |
| 10/2 | Dundee Utd1 | 35% | 25% |
Livingston2 | 39% |
| 10/2 | Aberdeen2 | 54% | 26% |
St Mirren1 | 19% |
| 9/27 | Ross County0 | 30% | 26% |
Aberdeen3 | 44% |
| 9/27 | Celtic3 | 82% | 12% |
Hibernian0 | 6% |
| 9/27 | Motherwell1 | 12% | 21% |
Rangers5 | 67% |
| 9/26 | Livingston2 | 46% | 27% |
St Johnstone0 | 27% |
| 9/26 | Hamilton Accies1 | 40% | 26% |
Dundee Utd1 | 34% |
| 9/26 | St Mirren0 | 33% | 27% |
Kilmarnock1 | 40% |
| 9/20 | Aberdeen0 | 50% | 27% |
Motherwell3 | 23% |
| 9/20 | Hibernian2 | 15% | 22% |
Rangers2 | 62% |
| 9/19 | St Johnstone0 | 45% | 27% |
Ross County1 | 27% |
| 9/19 | Kilmarnock2 | 49% | 25% |
Hamilton Accies1 | 26% |
| 9/19 | Dundee Utd2 | 41% | 28% |
St Mirren1 | 31% |
| 9/19 | Celtic3 | 90% | 8% |
Livingston2 | 2% |
| 9/16 | St Mirren1 | 4% | 12% |
Celtic2 | 84% |
| 9/12 | Ross County0 | 5% | 11% |
Celtic5 | 84% |
| 9/12 | Livingston1 | 48% | 26% |
Hamilton Accies2 | 27% |
| 9/12 | St Mirren0 | 31% | 28% |
Hibernian3 | 41% |
| 9/12 | Rangers4 | 84% | 13% |
Dundee Utd0 | 3% |
| 9/12 | Motherwell1 | 40% | 29% |
St Johnstone0 | 30% |
| 9/12 | Aberdeen1 | 47% | 26% |
Kilmarnock0 | 28% |
| 8/30 | Hibernian0 | 38% | 26% |
Aberdeen1 | 36% |
| 8/30 | Celtic3 | 87% | 10% |
Motherwell0 | 3% |
| 8/29 | Hamilton Accies0 | 7% | 16% |
Rangers2 | 76% |
| 8/29 | Livingston1 | 44% | 25% |
Ross County0 | 31% |
| 8/29 | St Johnstone1 | 39% | 30% |
St Mirren0 | 31% |
| 8/29 | Kilmarnock4 | 40% | 27% |
Dundee Utd0 | 33% |
| 8/23 | St Johnstone0 | 30% | 26% |
Hibernian1 | 44% |
| 8/23 | Aberdeen2 | 47% | 26% |
Livingston1 | 28% |
| 8/22 | Dundee Utd0 | 7% | 13% |
Celtic1 | 80% |
| 8/22 | St Mirren1 | 40% | 27% |
Ross County1 | 33% |
| 8/22 | Rangers2 | 74% | 18% |
Kilmarnock0 | 9% |
| 8/22 | Motherwell0 | 47% | 26% |
Hamilton Accies1 | 27% |
| 8/20 | St Johnstone0 | 30% | 27% |
Aberdeen1 | 43% |
| 8/16 | Livingston0 | 10% | 17% |
Rangers0 | 72% |
| 8/15 | Hibernian0 | 46% | 25% |
Motherwell0 | 29% |
| 8/15 | Ross County1 | 35% | 26% |
Dundee Utd2 | 39% |
| 8/15 | Hamilton Accies0 | 37% | 27% |
St Mirren1 | 36% |
| 8/15 | Kilmarnock1 | 45% | 26% |
St Johnstone2 | 29% |
| 8/12 | Ross County2 | 32% | 26% |
Kilmarnock2 | 42% |
| 8/12 | Rangers3 | 77% | 17% |
St Johnstone0 | 7% |
| 8/12 | Motherwell2 | 41% | 26% |
Livingston2 | 33% |
| 8/11 | Dundee Utd0 | 35% | 24% |
Hibernian1 | 40% |
| 8/9 | Kilmarnock1 | 8% | 14% |
Celtic1 | 78% |
| 8/9 | Rangers3 | 75% | 18% |
St Mirren0 | 7% |
| 8/8 | Livingston1 | 38% | 25% |
Hibernian4 | 37% |
| 8/8 | Hamilton Accies0 | 41% | 25% |
Ross County1 | 34% |
| 8/8 | Motherwell0 | 42% | 26% |
Dundee Utd1 | 32% |
| 8/3 | Ross County1 | 32% | 25% |
Motherwell0 | 43% |
| 8/2 | Celtic5 | 90% | 8% |
Hamilton Accies1 | 2% |
| 8/1 | St Mirren1 | 33% | 27% |
Livingston0 | 40% |
| 8/1 | Hibernian2 | 40% | 25% |
Kilmarnock1 | 35% |
| 8/1 | Dundee Utd1 | 41% | 26% |
St Johnstone1 | 33% |
| 8/1 | Aberdeen0 | 17% | 21% |
Rangers1 | 62% |
| Team rating | avg. simulated season | end-of-season probabilities | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| team | spi | off. | def. | goal diff. | proj. pts.pts. | Every position | relegatedrel. | qualify for UCLmake UCL | win Premiershipwin league | |||||||
Rangers82 pts | 67.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | +74 | 99 | <1% | >99% | >99% | ||||||||
Celtic64 pts | 59.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | +48 | 79 | <1% | >99% | <1% | ||||||||
Hibernian52 pts | 38.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | +16 | 65 | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||||||||
Aberdeen48 pts | 29.8 | 0.8 | 1.4 | +0 | 57 | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||||||||
Livingston40 pts | 31.5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | -2 | 51 | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||||||||
St Mirren36 pts | 25.5 | 0.7 | 1.5 | -9 | 45 | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||||||||
St Johnstone33 pts | 27.5 | 0.8 | 1.6 | -8 | 44 | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||||||||
Dundee Utd34 pts | 22.9 | 0.8 | 1.8 | -17 | 44 | 2% | <1% | <1% | ||||||||
Motherwell29 pts | 21.0 | 0.7 | 1.8 | -21 | 39 | 16% | <1% | <1% | ||||||||
Ross County26 pts | 16.3 | 0.6 | 2.1 | -35 | 36 | 44% | <1% | <1% | ||||||||
Hamilton Accies24 pts | 20.3 | 0.8 | 2.0 | -30 | 35 | 46% | <1% | <1% | ||||||||
Kilmarnock24 pts | 19.5 | 0.6 | 1.8 | -16 | 35 | 43% | <1% | <1% | ||||||||
The top two teams from each group qualify for the knockout phase. The third-place team from each group qualifies for the UEFA Europa League knockout phase. The third-place finisher from each group in the UEFA Champions League — eight teams total — will join the UEFA Europa League in the round of 32.The top seven teams from each conference — 14 teams total — make the MLS playoffs. The top team from each conference receives a first-round bye.The top two teams from each group make the USL playoffs.The top twelve teams at the end of the regular season make the Liga MX playoffs, with four teams receiving a first-round bye.The top four teams at the end of the regular season make the NWSL playoffs.The top six teams make the A-League playoffs, with two teams receiving a first-round bye.Three teams are promoted, and four teams are relegated. Depending on the league standings, playoffs for the final promotion and relegation spots may be necessary.Four teams — based on overall performance during the last four seasons — are relegated.The bottom team is automatically relegated, and the second-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom team is automatically relegated, and the second-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom two teams are automatically relegated, and the third-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom two teams are automatically relegated, and the third-to-last team will enter a playoff against teams from the lower division to determine if they are relegated.Two teams are relegated through a playoff.The top two teams from each group and four third-place teams make the round of 16.
Design and development by Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Julia Wolfe. Statistical models by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
Comments