Updated Aug. 19, 2019, at 12:20 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Primeira Liga

2019-20 season

Portugal

Updated Aug. 18, 2019, at 5:56 p.m.

Upcoming matches
August 13-19
8/19
Tondela
41%
25%
Portimonense
33%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
August 13-19
8/18
Sporting2
58%22%
Braga1
20%
SCPBRAG
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.22.7
Non-shot xG1.41.9
8/18
Guimarães1
52%26%
Boavista1
23%
GUIBOA
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.00.3
Non-shot xG1.30.3
8/18
Desportivo Aves3
52%27%
Marítimo1
22%
DAVMARI
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG1.40.3
Non-shot xG0.71.0
8/18
Paços Ferreira0
44%26%
Santa Clara1
30%
FERRSCL
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.80.6
Non-shot xG1.40.7
8/17
Porto4
87%11%
Vitória0
2%
PORSET
Adjusted goals4.20.0
Shot-based xG2.61.1
Non-shot xG2.30.2
8/17
Belenenses0
11%16%
Benfica2
73%
BELEBEN
Adjusted goals0.01.6
Shot-based xG1.11.5
Non-shot xG0.52.3
8/17
Moreirense3
47%26%
Gil Vicente0
27%
MOREGIL
Adjusted goals3.10.0
Shot-based xG1.60.6
Non-shot xG1.21.5
8/16
Famalicão1
43%25%
Rio Ave0
32%
FAMRIO
Adjusted goals0.80.0
Shot-based xG0.81.8
Non-shot xG0.60.7
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Primeira Ligawin league
Benfica6 pts
77.5
2.4
0.8
+5678<1%81%51%
Porto3 pts
77.6
2.3
0.7
+5175<1%72%35%
Sporting4 pts
66.8
1.9
0.9
+2865<1%28%9%
Braga3 pts
59.7
1.7
1.1
+1657<1%10%3%
Guimarães1 pt
51.1
1.4
1.1
+0475%2%<1%
Boavista4 pts
44.8
1.2
1.2
-7438%<1%<1%
Famalicão6 pts
43.2
1.2
1.3
-8438%<1%<1%
Desportivo Aves3 pts
46.6
1.3
1.2
-5438%<1%<1%
Rio Ave0 pts
46.9
1.4
1.3
-64310%1%<1%
Moreirense3 pts
45.3
1.2
1.2
-64310%<1%<1%
Portimonense1 pt
45.9
1.3
1.3
-84211%<1%<1%
Gil Vicente3 pts
42.3
1.3
1.4
-134113%<1%<1%
Santa Clara3 pts
43.1
1.2
1.3
-124013%<1%<1%
Vitória1 pt
41.7
1.1
1.2
-153819%<1%<1%
Tondela1 pt
40.4
1.2
1.5
-163721%<1%<1%
Belenenses1 pt
40.6
1.1
1.4
-153721%<1%<1%
Paços Ferreira0 pts
40.8
1.2
1.4
-193624%<1%<1%
Marítimo1 pt
38.6
1.1
1.3
-183527%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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