Updated Aug. 3, 2020, at 10:05 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 38 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Primeira Liga

2019-20

Portugal

Updated July 26, 2020, at 4:39 p.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
July 21-27
7/26
Portimonense2
68%22%
Desportivo Aves0
9%
BETDAV
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG0.80.6
Non-shot xG0.90.6
7/26
Moreirense1
35%28%
Tondela2
37%
MORETOND
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.82.6
Non-shot xG1.20.6
7/26
Vitória2
46%30%
Belenenses0
24%
SETBELE
Adjusted goals1.60.0
Shot-based xG0.80.8
Non-shot xG0.60.9
7/25
Benfica2
44%27%
Sporting1
30%
BENSCP
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.11.1
Non-shot xG1.30.7
7/25
Braga2
32%25%
Porto1
44%
BRAGPOR
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.11.2
Non-shot xG0.41.8
7/25
Marítimo3
36%30%
Famalicão3
34%
MARIFAM
Adjusted goals3.23.2
Shot-based xG0.61.5
Non-shot xG0.41.6
7/25
Boavista0
30%29%
Rio Ave2
41%
BOARIO
Adjusted goals0.01.8
Shot-based xG0.61.7
Non-shot xG0.90.9
7/24
Gil Vicente3
38%28%
Paços Ferreira3
33%
GILFERR
Adjusted goals3.23.2
Shot-based xG1.71.5
Non-shot xG0.80.8
7/24
Santa Clara2
32%28%
Guimarães2
40%
SCLGUI
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.81.2
Non-shot xG0.50.7
7/21
Desportivo Aves0
21%22%
Benfica4
57%
DAVBEN
Adjusted goals0.03.2
Shot-based xG0.33.5
Non-shot xG0.32.4
7/21
Sporting0
57%25%
Vitória0
18%
SCPSET
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.40.1
Non-shot xG0.70.3
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Primeira Ligawin league
Porto82 pts
75.8
2.0
0.7
+5282
Benfica77 pts
72.1
2.1
0.9
+4577
Braga60 pts
63.7
1.8
1.0
+2160
Sporting60 pts
60.7
1.5
0.9
+1560
Rio Ave55 pts
58.4
1.5
1.0
+1255
Famalicão54 pts
45.5
1.3
1.3
+254
Guimarães50 pts
59.3
1.5
1.0
+1550
Moreirense43 pts
43.3
1.2
1.3
-243
Gil Vicente43 pts
45.5
1.2
1.2
-443
Santa Clara43 pts
48.4
1.3
1.2
-543
Marítimo39 pts
42.0
1.1
1.2
-839
Boavista39 pts
40.8
1.0
1.2
-1139
Paços Ferreira39 pts
44.6
1.3
1.3
-1639
Tondela36 pts
44.1
1.2
1.2
-1436
Belenenses35 pts
37.4
1.0
1.3
-2735
Vitória34 pts
36.0
0.9
1.3
-1634
Portimonense33 pts
46.5
1.2
1.1
-1533
Desportivo Aves17 pts
28.6
0.8
1.5
-4417
Forecast from
Season

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