Updated Apr. 18, 2018 at 9:36 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 26 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: Global Club Soccer Rankings

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Primeira Liga

2017-18 season

Portugal

Updated Apr. 16, 2018, at 4:54 p.m.

Upcoming matches
4/20
Braga
77%
16%
Marítimo
7%
4/21
Paços de Ferreira
40%
29%
Belenenses
31%
4/21
Feirense
37%
29%
Guimarães
35%
4/21
Estoril
11%
19%
Benfica
70%
4/22
Chaves
42%
25%
Portimonense
33%
4/22
Tondela
46%
28%
Desportivo Aves
26%
4/22
Moreirense
37%
31%
Rio Ave
32%
4/22
Sporting
78%
16%
Boavista
5%
4/23
Porto
87%
10%
Vitória
3%
See all
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games.Read the full methodology »
4/16
Rio Ave1
51%28%
Tondela1
22%
RIOTOND
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.61.6
Non-shot xG1.21.1
4/15
Belenenses3
16%25%
Sporting4
59%
BELESCP
Adjusted goals3.24.0
Shot-based xG1.92.1
Non-shot xG1.11.1
4/15
Benfica0
45%27%
Porto1
28%
BENPOR
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.71.1
Non-shot xG1.20.9
4/15
Marítimo1
46%29%
Moreirense1
25%
MARIMORE
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG2.00.8
Non-shot xG0.50.6
4/14
Guimarães1
50%26%
Vitória1
24%
GUISET
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.51.0
Non-shot xG0.61.1
4/14
Boavista3
42%30%
Chaves3
28%
BOAGDC
Adjusted goals3.03.2
Shot-based xG2.21.4
Non-shot xG1.71.0
4/14
Portimonense0
53%24%
Estoril1
23%
PORESTO
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.31.4
Non-shot xG1.71.4
4/14
Desportivo Aves1
44%28%
Feirense0
27%
DESFEI
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.80.8
Non-shot xG0.40.9
4/13
Paços de Ferreira1
20%24%
Braga5
56%
FERRBRAG
Adjusted goals1.13.7
Shot-based xG0.84.6
Non-shot xG0.51.8
4/9
Moreirense1
41%31%
Boavista0
28%
MOREBOA
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.51.2
Non-shot xG0.30.6
4/8
Sporting2
79%16%
Paços de Ferreira0
5%
SCPFERR
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.50.3
Non-shot xG1.40.5
4/8
Porto2
88%10%
Desportivo Aves0
2%
PORDES
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG2.70.3
Non-shot xG2.40.5
See all
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Primeira Ligawin league
Porto76 pts
78.3
2.2
0.7
27.14.62.3+6586>99%81%
Benfica74 pts
77.1
2.1
0.7
25.85.72.5+638390%19%
Sporting71 pts
69.6
1.9
0.9
24.35.93.8+42799%<1%
Braga68 pts
68.3
2.0
0.9
24.62.86.5+4877<1%<1%
Rio Ave44 pts
43.7
1.1
1.2
14.46.113.5-349
Marítimo44 pts
39.4
1.1
1.3
12.68.912.5-1347
Chaves38 pts
40.6
1.2
1.4
11.49.113.5-1243<1%
Guimarães37 pts
42.2
1.2
1.4
12.35.016.7-1442<1%
Boavista38 pts
39.1
1.0
1.3
12.05.916.1-1342<1%
Portimonense35 pts
43.7
1.4
1.5
10.39.014.7-840<1%
Belenenses33 pts
41.3
1.1
1.3
9.210.114.7-1338<1%
Tondela32 pts
38.6
1.1
1.4
9.28.915.9-1136<1%
Vitória29 pts
38.5
1.1
1.4
7.211.914.8-193412%
Moreirense29 pts
37.5
1.0
1.3
8.19.016.9-193311%
Desportivo Aves28 pts
36.0
1.0
1.4
8.38.117.5-153316%
Paços de Ferreira28 pts
37.7
1.1
1.4
8.38.117.6-243318%
Estoril26 pts
37.7
1.1
1.4
8.16.119.8-333061%
Feirense24 pts
35.4
1.0
1.4
8.04.022.0-212882%
Forecast from

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