Updated Feb. 26, 2020, at 4:59 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

league-logo

Primeira Liga

2019-20 season

Portugal

Updated Feb. 26, 2020, at 2:02 p.m.

Upcoming matches
February 25 - March 2
2/28
Portimonense
57%
27%
Vitória
16%
2/29
Rio Ave
61%
23%
Belenenses
16%
2/29
Boavista
40%
31%
Gil Vicente
29%
3/1
Desportivo Aves
40%
29%
Paços Ferreira
31%
3/1
Marítimo
23%
26%
Braga
51%
3/1
Guimarães
68%
21%
Tondela
11%
3/2
Santa Clara
11%
21%
Porto
68%
3/2
Benfica
86%
11%
Moreirense
3%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
February 18-24
2/24
Gil Vicente0
13%19%
Benfica1
68%
GILBEN
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.20.9
Non-shot xG1.20.8
2/23
Porto1
85%12%
Portimonense0
3%
PORBET
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.81.2
Non-shot xG1.90.8
2/23
Braga3
73%19%
Vitória1
8%
BRAGSET
Adjusted goals2.51.1
Shot-based xG3.00.7
Non-shot xG2.40.6
2/23
Sporting2
59%26%
Boavista0
15%
SCPBOA
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.80.6
Non-shot xG1.00.4
2/23
Moreirense2
45%27%
Santa Clara1
28%
MORESCL
Adjusted goals1.91.1
Shot-based xG0.71.1
Non-shot xG0.70.5
2/23
Paços Ferreira2
48%26%
Famalicão1
26%
FERRFAM
Adjusted goals1.91.1
Shot-based xG0.61.8
Non-shot xG0.60.6
2/22
Belenenses1
46%28%
Marítimo0
25%
BELEMARI
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.81.2
Non-shot xG0.50.8
2/22
Tondela1
32%28%
Rio Ave2
40%
TONDRIO
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.91.6
Non-shot xG0.30.9
2/21
Desportivo Aves0
24%25%
Guimarães2
50%
DAVGUI
Adjusted goals0.01.9
Shot-based xG1.21.4
Non-shot xG1.31.0
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Primeira Ligawin league
Benfica57 pts
74.0
2.1
0.8
+5484>99%51%
Porto56 pts
75.6
2.0
0.7
+4983>99%49%
Braga40 pts
64.5
1.8
1.0
+2162<1%<1%<1%
Sporting39 pts
62.9
1.6
0.9
+1860<1%<1%<1%
Rio Ave36 pts
55.3
1.4
1.0
+1154<1%<1%<1%
Guimarães31 pts
63.0
1.6
0.9
+1952<1%<1%<1%
Famalicão33 pts
42.5
1.3
1.4
-847<1%<1%<1%
Gil Vicente26 pts
46.6
1.2
1.2
-543<1%<1%<1%
Santa Clara29 pts
45.6
1.2
1.2
-1042<1%<1%<1%
Boavista28 pts
42.5
1.0
1.1
-742<1%<1%<1%
Moreirense26 pts
44.2
1.3
1.3
-5402%<1%<1%
Vitória26 pts
37.6
0.9
1.3
-16383%<1%<1%
Belenenses24 pts
38.8
1.1
1.4
-25377%<1%<1%
Tondela24 pts
39.1
1.1
1.3
-15369%<1%<1%
Marítimo24 pts
39.5
1.0
1.2
-14368%<1%<1%
Paços Ferreira19 pts
39.5
1.1
1.3
-233142%
Portimonense15 pts
45.1
1.2
1.2
-173142%
Desportivo Aves13 pts
37.1
1.1
1.4
-282585%
Forecast from
Season

Comments