Updated May 26, 2020, at 4:26 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Primeira Liga

2019-20 season

Portugal

Updated March 8, 2020, at 6:01 p.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
March 3-9
3/8
Paços Ferreira1
27%27%
Guimarães2
45%
FERRGUI
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.31.0
Non-shot xG1.11.1
3/8
Sporting2
71%19%
Desportivo Aves0
10%
SCPDAV
Adjusted goals1.70.0
Shot-based xG1.90.0
Non-shot xG3.10.0
3/8
Gil Vicente1
45%28%
Santa Clara1
26%
GILSCL
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.40.4
Non-shot xG0.70.4
3/8
Moreirense2
49%27%
Marítimo0
23%
MOREMARI
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.80.6
Non-shot xG1.51.1
3/8
Belenenses0
43%26%
Famalicão0
31%
BELEFAM
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.60.9
Non-shot xG0.60.9
3/7
Porto1
75%18%
Rio Ave1
7%
PORRIO
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.41.2
Non-shot xG2.10.4
3/7
Vitória1
10%19%
Benfica1
71%
SETBEN
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.72.7
Non-shot xG0.51.4
3/7
Tondela1
44%31%
Boavista1
25%
TONDBOA
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.00.9
Non-shot xG1.10.7
3/6
Braga3
62%22%
Portimonense1
16%
BRAGBET
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG3.70.9
Non-shot xG1.51.3
3/3
Famalicão3
30%25%
Sporting1
45%
FAMSCP
Adjusted goals3.21.1
Shot-based xG0.51.7
Non-shot xG0.31.7
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Primeira Ligawin league
Porto60 pts
74.5
2.0
0.7
+4883>99%66%
Benfica59 pts
73.3
2.1
0.8
+5181>99%34%
Braga46 pts
65.4
1.9
1.0
+2365<1%<1%
Sporting42 pts
62.8
1.6
0.9
+1659<1%<1%
Guimarães37 pts
62.4
1.6
0.9
+2054<1%<1%<1%
Rio Ave38 pts
55.6
1.4
1.0
+1254<1%<1%<1%
Famalicão37 pts
43.5
1.3
1.4
-648<1%<1%<1%
Gil Vicente30 pts
47.1
1.2
1.1
-444<1%<1%<1%
Moreirense30 pts
45.7
1.3
1.3
+043<1%<1%<1%
Santa Clara30 pts
45.4
1.2
1.1
-1042<1%<1%<1%
Boavista29 pts
41.8
1.0
1.1
-940<1%<1%
Vitória28 pts
38.6
0.9
1.2
-1339<1%
Belenenses26 pts
38.7
1.1
1.3
-25364%
Tondela25 pts
39.1
1.1
1.3
-17359%
Marítimo24 pts
38.2
1.0
1.3
-163413%
Paços Ferreira22 pts
41.5
1.1
1.3
-213324%
Portimonense16 pts
43.9
1.2
1.2
-192953%
Desportivo Aves13 pts
34.5
1.0
1.5
-312296%
Forecast from
Season

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