Updated June 15, 2019, at 9:28 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Primeira Liga

2018-19 season

Portugal

Updated May 19, 2019, at 4:55 p.m.

Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
May
5/19
Moreirense1
36%30%
Guimarães3
33%
MOREGUI
Adjusted goals1.12.6
Shot-based xG1.42.5
Non-shot xG1.31.2
5/19
Tondela5
43%26%
Chaves2
31%
TONDGDC
Adjusted goals5.12.1
Shot-based xG1.62.3
Non-shot xG1.32.7
5/18
Benfica4
89%9%
Santa Clara1
2%
BENSAN
Adjusted goals4.21.1
Shot-based xG2.52.6
Non-shot xG2.71.1
5/18
Porto2
57%24%
Sporting1
19%
PORSCP
Adjusted goals1.71.1
Shot-based xG3.00.5
Non-shot xG2.80.3
5/18
Feirense2
32%29%
Desportivo Aves1
40%
FEIDAV
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG0.61.4
Non-shot xG1.00.7
5/18
Vitória1
38%29%
Rio Ave3
33%
SETRIO
Adjusted goals1.12.6
Shot-based xG2.01.8
Non-shot xG0.71.2
5/18
Marítimo0
34%30%
Boavista1
36%
MARIBOA
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.10.4
Non-shot xG1.40.6
5/17
Braga2
48%25%
Portimonense0
27%
BRAGBET
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG1.70.7
Non-shot xG1.20.7
5/16
Belenenses3
41%27%
Nacional0
32%
BELECDM
Adjusted goals2.90.0
Shot-based xG1.40.6
Non-shot xG1.01.0
5/12
Rio Ave2
11%17%
Benfica3
72%
RIOBEN
Adjusted goals2.13.2
Shot-based xG1.52.3
Non-shot xG1.11.4
5/12
Nacional0
9%16%
Porto4
75%
CDMPOR
Adjusted goals0.03.7
Shot-based xG0.82.7
Non-shot xG0.61.7
5/12
Chaves1
43%30%
Vitória2
27%
GDCSET
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG1.21.4
Non-shot xG1.71.2
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Primeira Ligawin league
Benfica87 pts
76.4
2.4
0.9
28.03.03.0+7287
Porto85 pts
80.5
2.3
0.6
27.04.03.0+5485
Sporting74 pts
69.9
1.9
0.9
23.05.06.0+3974
Braga67 pts
61.5
1.7
1.0
21.04.09.0+1967
Moreirense52 pts
45.7
1.2
1.2
16.04.014.0-552
Guimarães52 pts
53.8
1.4
1.1
15.07.012.0+1252
Rio Ave45 pts
48.3
1.4
1.3
12.09.013.0-245
Boavista44 pts
45.9
1.2
1.2
13.05.016.0-644
Belenenses43 pts
40.0
1.2
1.4
10.013.011.0-943
Santa Clara42 pts
43.9
1.3
1.3
11.09.014.0-242
Marítimo39 pts
36.1
1.0
1.3
12.03.019.0-1839
Portimonense39 pts
47.1
1.4
1.4
11.06.017.0-1539
Desportivo Aves36 pts
48.6
1.3
1.1
10.06.018.0-1436
Vitória36 pts
42.8
1.1
1.2
8.012.014.0-1136
Tondela35 pts
39.0
1.3
1.6
9.08.017.0-1435
Chaves32 pts
40.5
1.3
1.5
8.08.018.0-2332
Nacional28 pts
36.3
1.1
1.5
7.07.020.0-4028
Feirense20 pts
33.5
1.0
1.5
3.011.020.0-3720
Forecast from
Season

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