Updated Oct. 25, 2020, at 10:59 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Primeira Liga

2020-21

Portugal

Updated Oct. 25, 2020, at 5:58 p.m.

Upcoming matches
October 20-26
10/26
Benfica
88%
10%
Belenenses
2%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
October 20-26
10/25
Guimarães0
35%26%
Braga1
39%
GUIBRAG
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.81.5
Non-shot xG1.60.8
10/25
Famalicão2
48%26%
Boavista2
25%
FAMBOA
Adjusted goals1.72.0
Shot-based xG2.50.6
Non-shot xG1.40.6
10/25
Farense0
38%27%
Rio Ave1
35%
SC RIO
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.80.6
Non-shot xG1.50.6
10/25
Moreirense2
47%27%
Marítimo1
27%
MOREMARI
Adjusted goals1.91.1
Shot-based xG2.60.9
Non-shot xG1.20.4
10/24
Porto1
84%12%
Gil Vicente0
4%
PORGVFC
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.90.7
Non-shot xG1.80.7
10/24
Santa Clara1
27%27%
Sporting2
46%
SCLSCP
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.41.7
Non-shot xG0.32.2
10/24
Nacional1
44%26%
Paços Ferreira1
29%
CDMFERR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.40.9
Non-shot xG0.31.4
10/23
Tondela1
42%28%
Portimonense0
30%
TONDBET
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.80.9
Non-shot xG1.01.4
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Primeira Ligawin league
Benfica12 pts
77.0
2.3
0.8
+5479<1%94%59%
Porto10 pts
75.7
2.2
0.8
+4674<1%88%29%
Sporting10 pts
63.1
1.6
0.9
+2464<1%52%7%
Braga9 pts
63.0
1.8
1.0
+2161<1%38%4%
Guimarães7 pts
53.3
1.3
1.0
+3493%7%<1%
Rio Ave6 pts
51.6
1.3
1.0
+0484%6%<1%
Santa Clara7 pts
45.7
1.2
1.2
-54310%2%<1%
Gil Vicente5 pts
44.8
1.2
1.2
-74114%2%<1%
Moreirense8 pts
43.2
1.2
1.3
-94113%2%<1%
Famalicão6 pts
44.8
1.3
1.4
-114113%2%<1%
Paços Ferreira5 pts
45.1
1.2
1.3
-104015%2%<1%
Portimonense4 pts
45.1
1.2
1.2
-113918%1%<1%
Marítimo6 pts
40.7
1.2
1.4
-143821%<1%<1%
Nacional6 pts
41.1
1.2
1.4
-143723%<1%<1%
Belenenses5 pts
40.1
1.0
1.2
-143725%<1%<1%
Tondela5 pts
40.8
1.1
1.3
-183626%<1%<1%
Boavista3 pts
40.4
1.1
1.3
-193531%<1%<1%
Farense1 pt
42.7
1.3
1.4
-153533%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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