Updated April 25, 2019, at 2:07 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Primeira Liga

2018-19 season

Portugal

Updated April 22, 2019, at 5:15 p.m.

Upcoming matches
April
4/26
Rio Ave
8%
16%
Porto
75%
4/27
Portimonense
62%
24%
Feirense
14%
4/27
Santa Clara
39%
33%
Vitória
27%
4/27
Sporting
61%
24%
Guimarães
15%
4/27
Desportivo Aves
51%
27%
Belenenses
21%
4/28
Marítimo
36%
29%
Tondela
35%
4/28
Chaves
52%
27%
Nacional
22%
4/28
Braga
23%
25%
Benfica
53%
4/28
Boavista
42%
31%
Moreirense
26%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
April
4/22
Benfica6
90%8%
Marítimo0
1%
BENMARI
Adjusted goals5.30.0
Shot-based xG2.20.0
Non-shot xG2.70.4
4/20
Porto1
88%10%
Santa Clara0
2%
PORSAN
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.10.3
Non-shot xG1.80.3
4/20
Feirense0
25%29%
Braga2
46%
FEIBRAG
Adjusted goals0.02.0
Shot-based xG0.22.3
Non-shot xG1.12.2
4/20
Moreirense0
45%29%
Chaves1
25%
MOREGDC
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.51.2
Non-shot xG1.80.9
4/20
Belenenses1
44%28%
Rio Ave3
28%
BELERIO
Adjusted goals1.13.2
Shot-based xG1.12.9
Non-shot xG1.32.0
4/19
Guimarães0
47%30%
Desportivo Aves2
23%
GUIDAV
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG1.72.3
Non-shot xG1.51.0
4/19
Nacional0
22%24%
Sporting1
54%
CDMSCP
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.12.0
Non-shot xG0.42.0
4/19
Tondela1
48%28%
Boavista0
23%
TONDBOA
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.92.6
Non-shot xG1.41.5
4/19
Vitória1
43%29%
Portimonense1
28%
SETBET
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.70.5
Non-shot xG0.91.3
4/14
Benfica4
86%12%
Vitória2
2%
BENSET
Adjusted goals4.02.1
Shot-based xG3.91.7
Non-shot xG2.11.2
4/14
Boavista1
44%29%
Nacional0
28%
BOACDM
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.50.6
Non-shot xG1.11.1
4/14
Braga3
61%23%
Tondela0
15%
BRAGTOND
Adjusted goals2.60.0
Shot-based xG1.90.9
Non-shot xG2.01.3
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Primeira Ligawin league
Benfica75 pts
77.1
2.3
0.8
26.83.73.5+6784>99%57%
Porto75 pts
79.3
2.2
0.7
26.93.73.4+5184>99%43%
Sporting67 pts
69.0
1.8
0.8
23.14.96.0+3474<1%<1%
Braga64 pts
63.2
1.6
0.9
21.85.07.1+2571<1%<1%
Moreirense49 pts
47.8
1.2
1.1
16.45.212.4-154
Guimarães45 pts
53.0
1.3
1.0
14.67.112.3+951
Belenenses40 pts
43.6
1.2
1.3
10.114.19.8+144
Santa Clara37 pts
43.5
1.1
1.2
11.38.114.7-242<1%
Rio Ave38 pts
44.5
1.3
1.4
10.78.914.3-841<1%
Desportivo Aves33 pts
49.8
1.3
1.1
10.57.016.5-11382%
Portimonense33 pts
46.1
1.4
1.4
10.46.916.8-12383%
Vitória32 pts
43.9
1.0
1.1
8.412.313.3-7388%
Marítimo33 pts
35.6
1.0
1.4
11.14.118.8-203710%
Boavista32 pts
42.6
1.1
1.2
10.26.317.5-153710%
Tondela31 pts
39.7
1.2
1.5
9.38.016.7-143626%
Chaves28 pts
40.8
1.1
1.3
8.68.217.3-213449%
Nacional27 pts
37.9
1.1
1.5
7.76.919.4-343093%
Feirense15 pts
32.2
0.9
1.4
2.910.121.0-3919
Forecast from
Season

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