Updated March 2, 2021, at 11:54 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Primeira Liga

2020-21

Portugal

Updated March 1, 2021, at 5:07 p.m.

Upcoming matches
March 2-8
3/5
Paços Ferreira
53%
26%
Nacional
21%
3/5
Sporting
77%
18%
Santa Clara
5%
3/6
Portimonense
52%
26%
Tondela
22%
3/6
Gil Vicente
16%
22%
Porto
63%
3/6
Boavista
46%
30%
Famalicão
25%
3/7
Marítimo
50%
28%
Moreirense
22%
3/7
Rio Ave
45%
29%
Farense
26%
3/8
Belenenses
15%
24%
Benfica
61%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
February 23 - March 1
3/1
Moreirense2
41%34%
Belenenses2
25%
MOREBELE
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.42.6
Non-shot xG1.10.9
3/1
Benfica2
78%17%
Rio Ave0
6%
BENRIO
Adjusted goals1.90.0
Shot-based xG2.21.0
Non-shot xG2.10.9
2/28
Nacional1
20%23%
Braga2
57%
CDMBRAG
Adjusted goals1.12.1
Shot-based xG0.72.5
Non-shot xG0.81.0
2/28
Tondela1
42%29%
Gil Vicente0
30%
TONDGVFC
Adjusted goals0.80.0
Shot-based xG3.50.8
Non-shot xG1.71.2
2/28
Portimonense0
50%27%
Marítimo0
22%
BETMARI
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.30.6
Non-shot xG1.21.1
2/27
Porto0
48%26%
Sporting0
26%
PORSCP
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.60.5
Non-shot xG2.10.4
2/27
Santa Clara3
37%29%
Paços Ferreira0
33%
SCLFERR
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG1.81.0
Non-shot xG0.71.7
2/27
Famalicão0
44%28%
Farense0
27%
FAMSC
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.50.6
Non-shot xG1.11.3
2/26
Guimarães2
48%28%
Boavista1
24%
GUIBOA
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.20.8
Non-shot xG1.40.4
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Primeira Ligawin league
Sporting55 pts
69.8
1.7
0.7
+4582>99%82%
Porto45 pts
74.6
2.1
0.8
+397385%11%
Braga46 pts
64.8
1.8
1.0
+277064%5%
Benfica42 pts
73.0
2.0
0.8
+316950%2%
Paços Ferreira38 pts
50.3
1.3
1.1
+856<1%2%<1%
Guimarães35 pts
51.4
1.3
1.1
+452<1%<1%<1%
Santa Clara28 pts
46.5
1.2
1.2
-344<1%<1%<1%
Moreirense26 pts
40.6
1.1
1.3
-12405%<1%<1%
Rio Ave22 pts
46.5
1.2
1.1
-10399%<1%<1%
Tondela24 pts
41.8
1.2
1.4
-183810%<1%<1%
Portimonense20 pts
46.6
1.2
1.2
-103715%<1%<1%
Belenenses22 pts
42.2
1.0
1.1
-113618%<1%<1%
Nacional21 pts
39.2
1.1
1.4
-153428%<1%<1%
Farense19 pts
44.1
1.2
1.3
-113429%<1%<1%
Gil Vicente19 pts
42.1
1.1
1.2
-153431%<1%<1%
Famalicão19 pts
42.3
1.1
1.2
-193432%<1%<1%
Boavista18 pts
43.0
1.1
1.2
-173334%<1%<1%
Marítimo18 pts
41.2
1.1
1.2
-153337%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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