Updated Oct. 20, 2019, at 10:38 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Primeira Liga

2019-20 season

Portugal

Updated Oct. 5, 2019, at 12:28 p.m.

Upcoming matches
October 22-28
10/25
Paços Ferreira
39%
25%
Rio Ave
36%
10/26
Belenenses
45%
28%
Desportivo Aves
27%
10/26
Gil Vicente
42%
28%
Portimonense
31%
10/26
Vitória
48%
29%
Marítimo
23%
10/26
Moreirense
45%
30%
Boavista
25%
10/27
Tondela
11%
17%
Benfica
73%
10/27
Porto
87%
10%
Famalicão
3%
10/27
Sporting
55%
24%
Guimarães
21%
10/28
Braga
57%
24%
Santa Clara
18%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
October 1-7
10/5
Desportivo Aves0
48%25%
Tondela1
27%
DAVTOND
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.40.9
Non-shot xG0.80.6
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Primeira Ligawin league
Porto18 pts
78.4
2.2
0.7
+5481<1%93%58%
Benfica18 pts
76.0
2.2
0.8
+5278<1%87%38%
Sporting11 pts
64.3
1.8
1.0
+2060<1%10%2%
Guimarães12 pts
56.1
1.4
1.0
+1154<1%3%<1%
Famalicão19 pts
45.3
1.3
1.4
+152<1%2%<1%
Braga8 pts
57.5
1.6
1.1
+7521%2%<1%
Rio Ave10 pts
51.7
1.5
1.3
+5492%1%<1%
Santa Clara11 pts
45.9
1.2
1.2
-6445%<1%<1%
Boavista11 pts
44.2
1.1
1.1
-6436%<1%<1%
Tondela12 pts
40.1
1.2
1.4
-134011%<1%<1%
Moreirense7 pts
43.4
1.1
1.2
-94012%<1%<1%
Portimonense5 pts
46.1
1.3
1.2
-93913%<1%<1%
Vitória7 pts
41.7
1.0
1.1
-123815%<1%<1%
Gil Vicente6 pts
42.3
1.2
1.3
-133816%<1%<1%
Paços Ferreira4 pts
42.3
1.2
1.3
-183524%<1%<1%
Marítimo8 pts
38.2
1.1
1.4
-203524%<1%<1%
Belenenses5 pts
40.1
1.1
1.3
-173525%<1%<1%
Desportivo Aves3 pts
39.1
1.1
1.4
-263045%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

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