Updated Aug. 15, 2018 at 3:25 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 35 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Primeira Liga

2018-19 season

Portugal

Updated Aug. 13, 2018, at 5:10 p.m.

Upcoming matches
8/17
Desportivo Aves
44%
27%
Tondela
29%
8/18
Chaves
43%
25%
Portimonense
32%
8/18
Boavista
13%
22%
Benfica
65%
8/18
Sporting
73%
18%
Vitória
9%
8/19
Nacional
46%
27%
Moreirense
27%
8/19
Rio Ave
47%
29%
Marítimo
24%
8/19
Belenenses
8%
17%
Porto
74%
8/19
Santa Clara
25%
24%
Braga
50%
8/20
Guimarães
49%
27%
Feirense
23%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
8/13
Portimonense0
46%27%
Boavista2
28%
BETBOA
Adjusted goals0.01.6
Shot-based xG1.30.6
Non-shot xG1.60.5
8/12
Braga4
65%21%
Nacional2
14%
BRAGCDM
Adjusted goals4.22.1
Shot-based xG1.81.3
Non-shot xG1.80.2
8/12
Moreirense1
18%24%
Sporting3
58%
MORESCP
Adjusted goals1.12.6
Shot-based xG0.82.1
Non-shot xG1.01.3
8/12
Feirense2
40%30%
Rio Ave0
30%
FEIRIO
Adjusted goals2.10.0
Shot-based xG0.90.4
Non-shot xG0.90.9
8/12
Marítimo1
44%27%
Santa Clara0
28%
MARISAN
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.00.6
Non-shot xG1.40.9
8/11
Porto5
87%10%
Chaves0
3%
PORGDC
Adjusted goals4.70.0
Shot-based xG4.80.1
Non-shot xG2.60.1
8/11
Tondela0
43%27%
Belenenses1
30%
TONDBELE
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.30.5
Non-shot xG1.70.6
8/11
Vitória2
45%28%
Desportivo Aves0
28%
SETDAV
Adjusted goals1.90.0
Shot-based xG1.70.3
Non-shot xG1.90.5
8/10
Benfica3
83%13%
Guimarães2
4%
BENGUI
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG2.11.0
Non-shot xG1.20.6
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Primeira Ligawin league
Porto3 pts
80.7
2.3
0.6
25.15.53.4+6081<1%84%56%
Benfica3 pts
75.8
2.1
0.7
23.06.34.6+4575<1%66%30%
Sporting3 pts
68.0
1.9
0.9
20.07.36.7+3267<1%32%10%
Braga3 pts
61.5
1.8
1.1
17.37.89.0+1960<1%12%3%
Guimarães0 pts
48.1
1.4
1.2
12.18.613.3-2457%<1%<1%
Boavista3 pts
44.5
1.2
1.2
11.59.013.5-6438%<1%<1%
Belenenses3 pts
43.4
1.2
1.3
11.18.614.2-94210%<1%<1%
Vitória3 pts
43.1
1.2
1.3
11.08.614.4-94211%<1%<1%
Rio Ave0 pts
45.5
1.2
1.2
10.88.914.2-84111%<1%<1%
Marítimo3 pts
42.5
1.2
1.3
10.88.714.4-104111%<1%<1%
Feirense3 pts
42.6
1.1
1.3
10.78.814.4-94111%<1%<1%
Portimonense0 pts
44.9
1.4
1.4
10.98.015.1-114113%<1%<1%
Chaves0 pts
43.2
1.3
1.4
10.88.315.0-134113%<1%<1%
Nacional0 pts
41.8
1.3
1.4
10.18.215.6-143917%<1%<1%
Santa Clara0 pts
41.2
1.2
1.4
9.88.315.9-143819%<1%<1%
Tondela0 pts
40.9
1.2
1.4
9.58.316.3-163721%<1%<1%
Desportivo Aves0 pts
39.7
1.1
1.4
9.28.416.4-173624%<1%<1%
Moreirense0 pts
39.6
1.1
1.3
9.08.716.2-173624%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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