Updated Oct. 21, 2018 at 4:54 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

league-logo

Primeira Liga

2018-19 season

Portugal

Updated Oct. 7, 2018, at 5:04 p.m.

Upcoming matches
10/26
Nacional
42%
26%
Portimonense
32%
10/26
Guimarães
28%
27%
Braga
45%
10/27
Desportivo Aves
44%
27%
Santa Clara
29%
10/27
Rio Ave
45%
28%
Chaves
27%
10/27
Belenenses
12%
22%
Benfica
66%
10/28
Moreirense
42%
30%
Marítimo
27%
10/28
Tondela
40%
30%
Vitória
30%
10/28
Porto
85%
13%
Feirense
2%
10/28
Sporting
71%
20%
Boavista
9%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
10/7
Portimonense4
19%23%
Sporting2
57%
BETSCP
Adjusted goals3.42.1
Shot-based xG1.02.0
Non-shot xG1.21.8
10/7
Benfica1
42%27%
Porto0
32%
BENPOR
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.80.7
Non-shot xG0.61.1
10/7
Boavista1
46%28%
Desportivo Aves0
25%
BOADAV
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.11.1
Non-shot xG1.10.8
10/6
Braga1
65%22%
Rio Ave1
13%
BRAGRIO
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.90.6
Non-shot xG2.30.7
10/6
Marítimo1
38%30%
Guimarães3
32%
MARIGUI
Adjusted goals1.12.9
Shot-based xG1.01.6
Non-shot xG1.10.6
10/6
Vitória3
47%30%
Moreirense0
23%
SETMORE
Adjusted goals2.40.0
Shot-based xG2.20.4
Non-shot xG1.50.4
10/5
Feirense0
43%32%
Belenenses0
26%
FEIBELE
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG0.60.5
Non-shot xG0.70.5
10/5
Santa Clara1
43%26%
Chaves0
31%
SANGDC
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.50.3
Non-shot xG0.60.6
10/5
Tondela1
44%27%
Nacional1
29%
TONDCDM
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.60.9
Non-shot xG1.00.7
10/1
Desportivo Aves3
40%26%
Portimonense0
33%
DAVBET
Adjusted goals3.00.0
Shot-based xG1.51.0
Non-shot xG1.41.4
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Primeira Ligawin league
Benfica17 pts
75.5
2.1
0.7
23.17.43.5+4677<1%77%44%
Porto15 pts
78.0
2.2
0.7
23.75.15.2+4976<1%75%40%
Sporting13 pts
67.4
1.8
0.8
19.47.47.3+2665<1%24%8%
Braga17 pts
63.0
1.7
1.0
18.68.56.8+2564<1%21%7%
Rio Ave14 pts
47.4
1.3
1.2
13.09.311.7+0482%1%<1%
Guimarães10 pts
49.5
1.3
1.2
13.18.412.6+2483%<1%<1%
Santa Clara11 pts
43.0
1.3
1.4
11.08.914.1-7428%<1%<1%
Vitória8 pts
45.6
1.2
1.2
10.79.713.6-4428%<1%<1%
Chaves7 pts
45.0
1.3
1.3
11.18.314.5-9429%<1%<1%
Marítimo10 pts
41.7
1.1
1.3
10.68.415.0-134011%<1%<1%
Portimonense7 pts
44.6
1.4
1.5
10.77.615.7-134013%<1%<1%
Belenenses7 pts
42.9
1.1
1.2
9.111.513.4-113914%<1%<1%
Boavista7 pts
43.0
1.1
1.2
10.18.515.5-113914%<1%<1%
Feirense9 pts
41.7
1.0
1.1
9.210.813.9-103914%<1%<1%
Moreirense7 pts
38.8
1.0
1.3
9.18.416.5-203623%<1%<1%
Nacional5 pts
40.9
1.2
1.4
8.79.016.2-203525%<1%<1%
Tondela6 pts
40.0
1.1
1.4
8.310.115.6-133526%<1%<1%
Desportivo Aves4 pts
40.4
1.2
1.4
8.68.217.2-163430%<1%<1%
Forecast from
Season

Comments