Updated Dec. 12, 2018, at 5:03 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Primeira Liga

2018-19 season

Portugal

Updated Dec. 12, 2018, at 4:56 p.m.

Upcoming matches
12/14
Portimonense
41%
28%
Vitória
30%
12/14
Braga
69%
22%
Feirense
9%
12/15
Boavista
42%
30%
Tondela
28%
12/15
Chaves
48%
29%
Moreirense
23%
12/15
Desportivo Aves
36%
28%
Guimarães
37%
12/15
Santa Clara
9%
16%
Porto
75%
12/16
Rio Ave
44%
29%
Belenenses
27%
12/16
Marítimo
13%
22%
Benfica
65%
12/16
Sporting
77%
16%
Nacional
7%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
12/10
Feirense1
42%32%
Marítimo1
26%
FEIMARI
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.61.1
Non-shot xG0.81.3
12/9
Sporting4
81%14%
Desportivo Aves1
5%
SCPDAV
Adjusted goals4.21.1
Shot-based xG1.41.4
Non-shot xG0.61.1
12/9
Guimarães3
52%27%
Rio Ave2
21%
GUIRIO
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG2.11.4
Non-shot xG1.30.7
12/9
Moreirense0
46%28%
Santa Clara1
27%
MORESAN
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.71.2
Non-shot xG1.50.9
12/9
Nacional0
46%28%
Boavista0
25%
CDMBOA
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.20.2
Non-shot xG1.40.2
12/8
Vitória0
17%24%
Benfica1
59%
SETBEN
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.80.9
Non-shot xG1.11.0
12/8
Tondela0
24%25%
Braga1
51%
TONDBRAG
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.30.5
Non-shot xG0.60.8
12/8
Belenenses1
43%30%
Chaves0
27%
BELEGDC
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.70.8
Non-shot xG1.61.2
12/7
Porto4
89%9%
Portimonense1
2%
PORBET
Adjusted goals4.21.1
Shot-based xG2.80.7
Non-shot xG2.40.7
12/3
Rio Ave1
17%24%
Sporting3
60%
RIOSCP
Adjusted goals1.13.1
Shot-based xG1.81.4
Non-shot xG0.62.1
12/2
Boavista0
9%19%
Porto1
72%
BOAPOR
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.73.9
Non-shot xG0.22.9
12/2
Chaves0
39%29%
Guimarães1
32%
GDCGUI
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.51.4
Non-shot xG1.00.9
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Primeira Ligawin league
Porto30 pts
78.5
2.3
0.7
25.44.04.6+5280<1%86%63%
Benfica26 pts
73.1
2.0
0.8
22.06.55.4+3973<1%52%17%
Sporting28 pts
69.6
1.9
0.8
21.76.16.2+3371<1%42%14%
Braga27 pts
63.0
1.6
0.9
19.18.66.3+2566<1%19%5%
Guimarães21 pts
53.0
1.4
1.1
14.79.110.3+853<1%1%<1%
Vitória17 pts
48.1
1.2
1.1
12.88.412.8+2471%<1%<1%
Belenenses18 pts
45.3
1.1
1.1
11.012.110.9-4452%<1%<1%
Rio Ave18 pts
45.0
1.3
1.3
11.88.613.6-6443%<1%<1%
Moreirense16 pts
42.1
1.1
1.2
11.57.215.3-12426%<1%<1%
Santa Clara17 pts
41.5
1.2
1.4
11.27.515.3-10416%<1%<1%
Portimonense14 pts
44.3
1.4
1.4
11.07.515.5-15408%<1%<1%
Nacional13 pts
43.2
1.3
1.4
9.39.615.1-183714%<1%<1%
Chaves7 pts
43.8
1.2
1.2
9.37.117.6-133524%<1%<1%
Desportivo Aves10 pts
41.5
1.2
1.4
9.46.717.9-173524%<1%<1%
Boavista10 pts
39.5
1.0
1.2
8.110.315.6-153524%<1%<1%
Marítimo11 pts
40.0
1.0
1.2
8.88.017.1-183524%<1%<1%
Tondela9 pts
40.7
1.2
1.4
8.38.717.0-133330%<1%<1%
Feirense10 pts
37.9
1.0
1.3
7.510.316.2-183334%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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