Updated May 6, 2021, at 5:27 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Primeira Liga

2020-21

Portugal

Updated May 6, 2021, at 5:27 p.m.

Upcoming matches
May 4-10
5/7
Famalicão
45%
28%
Santa Clara
28%
5/7
Boavista
55%
25%
Tondela
20%
5/9
Paços Ferreira
47%
29%
Marítimo
24%
5/9
Gil Vicente
30%
27%
Braga
43%
5/10
Portimonense
57%
26%
Moreirense
17%
5/10
Porto
68%
20%
Farense
11%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
May 4-10
5/6
Farense2
50%28%
Guimarães2
22%
SC GUI
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.61.2
Non-shot xG0.91.2
5/6
Benfica1
47%26%
Porto1
27%
BENPOR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.31.4
Non-shot xG0.51.8
5/6
Belenenses1
36%31%
Portimonense0
33%
BELEBET
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.80.6
Non-shot xG1.21.3
5/6
Moreirense2
47%27%
Nacional2
26%
MORECDM
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.50.9
Non-shot xG0.80.6
5/5
Rio Ave0
23%30%
Sporting2
46%
RIOSCP
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG0.22.5
Non-shot xG0.51.5
5/5
Marítimo0
40%30%
Gil Vicente1
31%
MARIGVFC
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG0.60.5
Non-shot xG1.10.7
5/5
Braga1
66%22%
Paços Ferreira1
13%
BRAGFERR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.31.1
Non-shot xG1.01.6
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionrelegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Primeira Ligawin league
Sporting79 pts
70.4
1.7
0.6
+4385>99%
Porto71 pts
75.2
2.0
0.7
+3878<1%
Benfica67 pts
75.3
2.1
0.7
+4073>99%
Braga59 pts
61.4
1.7
1.0
+2164<1%
Paços Ferreira49 pts
44.7
1.2
1.2
+154
Guimarães42 pts
48.5
1.3
1.1
-546
Santa Clara37 pts
51.6
1.4
1.1
+343<1%
Tondela35 pts
40.1
1.1
1.4
-1840<1%
Belenenses37 pts
41.2
1.0
1.1
-840<1%
Moreirense37 pts
38.6
1.1
1.4
-1140<1%
Gil Vicente35 pts
45.5
1.2
1.2
-1039<1%
Portimonense34 pts
49.3
1.3
1.1
-4391%
Famalicão31 pts
49.0
1.3
1.1
-9375%
Marítimo33 pts
40.6
1.0
1.2
-18366%
Rio Ave31 pts
45.3
1.1
1.1
-133424%
Boavista29 pts
41.3
1.2
1.4
-123438%
Farense28 pts
46.2
1.2
1.2
-113178%
Nacional25 pts
35.9
1.0
1.5
-252897%
Forecast from
Season

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