Updated Feb. 23, 2019, at 7:17 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Primeira Liga

2018-19 season

Portugal

Updated Feb. 23, 2019, at 5:32 p.m.

Upcoming matches
2/24
Santa Clara
43%
27%
Nacional
29%
2/24
Boavista
44%
29%
Rio Ave
27%
2/25
Marítimo
19%
26%
Sporting
54%
2/25
Benfica
87%
11%
Chaves
2%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
2/23
Vitória1
35%34%
Guimarães1
31%
SETGUI
Adjusted goals0.81.1
Shot-based xG1.41.6
Non-shot xG0.82.0
2/23
Portimonense1
43%27%
Desportivo Aves1
30%
BETDAV
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.70.8
Non-shot xG1.41.0
2/23
Feirense1
33%32%
Moreirense3
35%
FEIMORE
Adjusted goals1.13.2
Shot-based xG0.70.9
Non-shot xG0.80.4
2/22
Tondela0
9%17%
Porto3
74%
TONDPOR
Adjusted goals0.03.1
Shot-based xG0.52.5
Non-shot xG0.51.8
2/22
Braga0
63%25%
Belenenses2
12%
BRAGBELE
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG1.20.3
Non-shot xG2.20.3
2/18
Desportivo Aves0
11%18%
Benfica3
71%
DAVBEN
Adjusted goals0.03.2
Shot-based xG0.91.3
Non-shot xG1.11.4
2/17
Sporting3
42%28%
Braga0
30%
SCPBRAG
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG2.30.3
Non-shot xG1.30.8
2/17
Chaves1
46%31%
Boavista1
23%
GDCBOA
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.71.6
Non-shot xG1.21.2
2/17
Moreirense2
48%28%
Tondela0
24%
MORETOND
Adjusted goals1.80.0
Shot-based xG1.90.3
Non-shot xG1.40.5
2/17
Belenenses0
48%32%
Marítimo1
20%
BELEMARI
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.31.6
Non-shot xG1.30.6
2/16
Porto2
85%13%
Vitória0
2%
PORSET
Adjusted goals1.90.0
Shot-based xG2.10.1
Non-shot xG2.20.5
2/16
Guimarães2
49%28%
Portimonense0
23%
GUIBET
Adjusted goals2.00.0
Shot-based xG3.10.4
Non-shot xG1.90.8
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamspioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.relegatedrel.qualify for UCLmake UCLwin Primeira Ligawin league
Porto57 pts
78.6
2.2
0.6
25.65.13.3+518297%55%
Benfica53 pts
77.7
2.3
0.7
25.64.04.4+598197%44%
Sporting45 pts
67.4
1.8
0.9
20.75.87.4+29684%<1%
Braga49 pts
61.9
1.6
0.9
20.17.06.9+22673%<1%
Moreirense41 pts
49.5
1.2
1.0
17.05.311.7+256<1%<1%<1%
Guimarães36 pts
53.6
1.3
1.0
14.79.210.2+953<1%<1%<1%
Belenenses33 pts
46.5
1.2
1.1
11.812.110.1+147<1%<1%<1%
Rio Ave28 pts
44.5
1.3
1.4
10.110.113.7-7402%<1%<1%
Portimonense28 pts
44.0
1.3
1.4
11.26.716.1-12401%<1%<1%
Santa Clara27 pts
41.6
1.2
1.4
11.46.016.6-8402%<1%<1%
Vitória23 pts
42.9
1.0
1.1
8.611.314.2-8378%<1%
Boavista23 pts
43.1
1.1
1.2
9.48.516.0-14379%<1%<1%
Nacional23 pts
41.0
1.2
1.4
9.48.216.4-253611%<1%<1%
Tondela23 pts
39.8
1.2
1.4
9.27.817.1-153515%<1%
Desportivo Aves22 pts
43.8
1.2
1.3
9.47.017.6-173516%<1%
Marítimo23 pts
37.8
0.9
1.2
9.95.318.8-193516%<1%<1%
Chaves19 pts
42.7
1.1
1.3
8.77.318.1-183329%<1%
Feirense14 pts
34.3
0.9
1.4
4.411.118.5-312491%
Forecast from
Season

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