Superliga Predictions

Superliga

2018 season

Argentina

Updated Aug. 13, 2018, at 10:00 p.m.

Upcoming matches

8/17	Talleres	50%	27%
	Rosario Central	23%

8/17	Newell's Old Boys	24%	26%
	Independiente	50%

8/18	Defensa y Justicia	52%	26%
	Atlético Tucumán	22%

8/18	Banfield	44%	28%
	Gimnasia	28%

8/18	Argentinos Juniors	38%	28%
	Godoy Cruz	34%

8/18	River Plate	62%	23%
	Belgrano	15%

8/19	San Martín	47%	27%
	Patronato	26%

8/19	Colón	45%	27%
	Tigre	28%

8/19	Aldosivi	45%	26%
	Huracán	29%

8/19	San Lorenzo	50%	26%
	Lanús	24%

8/19	Racing	48%	25%
	Vélez Sarsfield	27%

8/20	Estudiantes	17%	23%
	Boca Juniors	60%

8/20	San Martín T.	40%	27%
	Unión	33%

Completed matches

After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...

Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.

These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »

8/13	Atlético Tucumán2	29%	26%
	Racing2	45%

	TUC	RAC
Adjusted goals	2.1	2.1
Shot-based xG	1.5	1.4
Non-shot xG	2.0	1.1

8/12	Huracán0	23%	23%
	River Plate0	54%

	HUR	CARP
Adjusted goals	0.0	0.0
Shot-based xG	0.3	0.9
Non-shot xG	0.8	0.6

8/12	Rosario Central1	43%	27%
	Banfield0	30%

	ROS	BAN
Adjusted goals	1.1	0.0
Shot-based xG	1.2	0.2
Non-shot xG	1.2	0.5

8/12	Lanús2	37%	27%
	Defensa y Justicia2	36%

	LAN	DYJ
Adjusted goals	2.1	2.1
Shot-based xG	1.3	1.1
Non-shot xG	1.0	1.0

8/12	Godoy Cruz1	53%	27%
	Estudiantes0	21%

	GCM	EST
Adjusted goals	1.1	0.0
Shot-based xG	1.6	1.7
Non-shot xG	0.8	1.6

8/12	Boca Juniors1	68%	19%
	Talleres0	12%

	CABJ	TDC
Adjusted goals	1.1	0.0
Shot-based xG	2.1	0.4
Non-shot xG	1.2	0.8

8/11	Belgrano0	51%	26%
	San Martín0	23%

	BEL	SMSJ
Adjusted goals	0.0	0.0
Shot-based xG	1.4	1.6
Non-shot xG	1.1	1.3

8/11	Patronato0	36%	28%
	Colón0	36%

	CAP	COL
Adjusted goals	0.0	0.0
Shot-based xG	1.0	0.7
Non-shot xG	1.6	1.3

8/11	Unión1	49%	26%
	Aldosivi0	26%

	USF	ALDO
Adjusted goals	1.1	0.0
Shot-based xG	0.9	0.2
Non-shot xG	0.9	0.3

8/11	Gimnasia1	41%	27%
	Argentinos Juniors0	32%

	GLP	ARGJ
Adjusted goals	1.1	0.0
Shot-based xG	0.1	1.0
Non-shot xG	0.4	1.2

8/10	Tigre2	40%	27%
	San Lorenzo2	32%

	TIG	SLOR
Adjusted goals	2.1	2.1
Shot-based xG	1.0	2.3
Non-shot xG	1.7	1.4

8/10	Vélez Sarsfield2	53%	25%
	Newell's Old Boys0	21%

	VEL	NOB
Adjusted goals	2.1	0.0
Shot-based xG	2.1	0.1
Non-shot xG	1.0	0.7

	Team rating				avg. simulated season					avg. simulated season

team	spi	off.	def.	W	D	L	goal diff.	proj. pts.pts.	relegatedrel.	win Superligawin league
Boca Juniors3 pts	65.5	1.8	1.0	15.3	5.2	4.6	+25	51	<1%	40%
River Plate1 pt	60.6	1.6	0.9	12.9	6.7	5.4	+18	45	<1%	16%
Independiente0 pts	57.4	1.5	1.0	12.3	6.3	6.4	+13	43	<1%	11%
Racing1 pt	52.6	1.5	1.2	10.9	6.9	7.2	+9	40	<1%	6%
Godoy Cruz3 pts	49.5	1.3	1.1	10.8	6.3	7.8	+5	39	<1%	5%
Vélez Sarsfield3 pts	49.3	1.3	1.2	10.8	6.3	8.0	+6	39	1%	4%
Unión3 pts	46.8	1.2	1.1	10.0	6.6	8.4	+2	37	2%	3%
Defensa y Justicia1 pt	48.3	1.3	1.2	9.5	7.3	8.2	+3	36	<1%	2%
San Lorenzo1 pt	48.1	1.2	1.1	9.4	7.5	8.1	+3	36	<1%	2%
Talleres0 pts	47.2	1.2	1.1	9.3	6.7	9.1	+2	35	<1%	1%
Colón1 pt	45.6	1.1	1.1	8.7	7.6	8.7	+0	34	<1%	1%
Belgrano1 pt	43.7	1.2	1.2	8.3	7.4	9.3	-2	32	32%	<1%
Rosario Central3 pts	40.6	1.1	1.3	8.7	6.3	10.0	-5	32	5%	<1%
Argentinos Juniors0 pts	44.5	1.1	1.2	8.4	6.7	9.9	-2	32	6%	<1%
Lanús1 pt	42.5	1.2	1.3	8.1	7.4	9.5	-3	32	3%	<1%
Huracán1 pt	42.1	1.2	1.3	8.1	7.4	9.5	-3	32	5%	<1%
Tigre1 pt	42.1	1.2	1.4	8.1	7.1	9.7	-4	32	81%	<1%
Estudiantes0 pts	43.2	1.1	1.1	8.0	6.7	10.2	-3	31	<1%	<1%
Gimnasia3 pts	38.1	1.1	1.4	8.1	6.3	10.6	-7	31	22%	<1%
San Martín T.0 pts	39.6	1.2	1.4	8.0	6.4	10.6	-6	30	43%	<1%
Banfield0 pts	41.0	1.0	1.2	7.6	6.6	10.8	-6	29	<1%	<1%
Aldosivi0 pts	39.0	1.1	1.4	7.6	6.2	11.2	-7	29	50%	<1%
San Martín1 pt	38.6	1.1	1.4	7.2	7.3	10.5	-8	29	48%	<1%
Atlético Tucumán1 pt	38.0	1.0	1.3	7.0	7.5	10.5	-8	28	35%	<1%
Newell's Old Boys0 pts	38.4	1.0	1.3	7.1	6.4	11.4	-9	28	12%	<1%
Patronato1 pt	35.4	1.0	1.4	6.4	7.3	11.3	-11	27	53%	<1%

Forecast from

Season

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 35 leagues, updated after each match.

Superliga

2018 season

Argentina

Updated Aug. 13, 2018, at 10:00 p.m.

Comments

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 35 leagues, updated after each match.

Superliga

2018 season

Argentina

Updated Aug. 13, 2018, at 10:00 p.m.

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Comments